Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Investment Strategy Conference held by Guosen Securities focused on "New Momentum, New Landscape," addressing key topics such as China's 14th Five-Year Plan, Sino-U.S. technology and industry competition, wealth management, and investment strategies, attracting over 2,000 attendees and 6,000 total participations across various forums [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference featured prominent speakers including Guosen Securities President Deng Ge and Chief Marketing Officer Yuan Chao, along with experts from various academic and research institutions [2]. - The event included a main forum and seven sub-forums, facilitating over 300 meetings between listed companies and investors [1]. Group 2: Guosen Securities' Strategic Focus - Guosen Securities aims to enhance its research capabilities, focusing on a comprehensive research system covering macro, industry, and company analysis to support investors [4]. - The company is committed to providing top-tier investment banking services, offering a full cycle of financial services from IPOs to mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Guosen Securities is expanding its wealth management transformation, leveraging AI technology to provide personalized asset allocation solutions [5]. - The firm is actively developing cross-border business opportunities to support domestic companies in international markets [5]. - Enhancements in compliance and risk management are prioritized to ensure investor safety [6]. Group 3: Economic Insights and Future Outlook - Expert speeches highlighted the need for policy support to sustain economic recovery and balance consumption and investment for high-quality growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7]. - The Chief Economist of Guosen Securities, Xun Yugen, discussed the challenges of transitioning from old to new economic drivers, emphasizing the role of AI and smart manufacturing in future growth [8]. - The conference's sub-forums provided in-depth analysis of investment opportunities and risks in various sectors, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and public funds, offering timely research references for investors [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

Core Insights - The Guosen Securities 2026 Investment Strategy Conference was successfully held in Shenzhen, focusing on themes such as the "14th Five-Year Plan," Sino-U.S. technology and industry competition, wealth management, and new consumption trends, attracting over 2,000 attendees and 6,000 total forum participations [2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Vision - Guosen Securities aims to enhance its research capabilities and provide comprehensive support for investors through a multi-dimensional research system covering macro, industry, and company analysis [3] - The company emphasizes a full-cycle financial service model, offering support from IPOs to mergers and acquisitions, to help businesses optimize their industrial chain [3] - Guosen Securities is committed to wealth management transformation, leveraging AI technology to provide personalized asset allocation solutions [3] - The firm is expanding its cross-border business to seize new opportunities under the "dual circulation" development framework [3] - Guosen Securities is focused on improving compliance and risk management to ensure investor safety [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Challenges - The current economic landscape in China is characterized by a painful transition between old and new growth drivers, with deflationary pressures impacting asset prices [5] - Policies have shifted towards "anti-deflation," aiming to stabilize the stock and real estate markets to boost confidence [5] - The rise of the "new economy," represented by AI and smart manufacturing, is expected to gradually replace traditional sectors as the main growth driver [5] - The ongoing technology cycle and industrial upgrades are anticipated to facilitate the transition between old and new economic drivers [5] Group 3: Key Presentations and Discussions - Keynote speeches included an analysis of Sino-U.S. industrial and technological competition, emphasizing strategic responses [4] - Discussions highlighted the need for balanced consumption and investment to achieve high-quality economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4] - The conference featured seven sub-forums where analysts and experts provided insights into investment opportunities and challenges in various sectors, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and public funds [5]

开头先讲一个故事。 抗战时期，清华、北大、南开师生一路南迁。1937年九、十月后，他们陆续到了长沙。 他们虽是大学生，在那个年代算得上见识比较广的了。但到了长沙，大部分人感到十分新奇，甚至震撼。 清华经济系的蔡孝敏就回忆，长沙的店铺感觉是很宽很深，有一家名叫"九如"的吃食铺更是深不见底，"一望无际的架橱内摆满各式各类食品，十分壮观 令人目迷五味，馋涎欲滴"。 将近百年之后，长沙商业繁荣给世人的震撼不减反增。 就像有网友分享第一次去长沙旅游。晚上吃完小龙虾已经两点，寻思着回酒店休息，但走到外面却发现街上全是人，一度怀疑自己是不是看错时间了。 位于长沙的湖南黄金楼 摄影/窦超 更有说服力的是数字： 今年国庆期间（从9月30日至10月7日），长沙市的商品和服务销售总额高达270亿元，也就是每天有超过30亿的现金在这座城市流动。 放眼全国，长沙新消费是独具一格的。 就在上周，长沙已经进入消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市、国际化消费环境建设试点城市两个国家级消费试点公示。 长沙，为什么能？ 长沙夜景 摄影/孙允广 01 长沙，一座不夜城 长沙和夜，有着天注定般的浪漫渊源。 每天傍晚6点到第二天凌晨2时左右，是长沙市民、游 ...

Core Points - The 2025 Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs will be held from December 2 to 5 in Boao, Hainan, focusing on the theme "Linking the World, Leading the Future: New Opportunities in the 15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The forum aims to enhance confidence in China's high-quality economic development, improve corporate innovation capabilities, and promote mutually beneficial cooperation [1] Event Details - The forum will last four days and include a main forum along with numerous parallel sessions such as the Digital Technology Innovation Development Conference, New Consumption Development Forum, CEO Innovation Business Forum, Health Future Forum, "Finance+" Ecological Alliance Conference, High-Quality Development Forum for County Economy, and Cultural Economy Development Forum [1] - Special events will also be held to promote the Hainan Free Trade Port [1] Historical Context - The Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs has been held successfully for nine sessions since its inception in 2016, recognized as an annual intellectual feast for the business community [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong consumer sector, highlighting the rapid growth of instant retail, particularly in categories such as sports and outdoor, beauty, digital appliances, and pet products, which have outpaced the overall market growth. Traditional food and beverage categories are experiencing relatively weak growth [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Instant Retail Growth**: Instant retail has shown remarkable growth, with certain categories doubling their growth rates compared to the overall market. New consumption sectors are performing well both online and offline, with strong growth in new categories, demographics, and channels [1][2]. - **AI Technology Impact**: AI technology significantly enhances efficiency through precise marketing and consumer insights. Brands are encouraged to invest more in AI tools to capture consumer demand and predict product trends, thereby improving advertising conversion rates [1][4]. - **K-Shaped Market Recovery**: The market is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, where high-end products and cost-effective brands coexist. High-end products require value redefinition, while cost-effective brands leverage supply chain optimization to reduce prices [1][5][6]. - **Focus on Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns**: Essential consumer sectors emphasize certainty and shareholder returns, with a focus on companies with abundant free cash flow that can enhance shareholder returns through dividends or buybacks [1][7]. - **Potential in Health Supplements**: The health supplement industry is identified as a potential hidden champion due to the aging population and increasing health demands, with a strong growth outlook for anti-aging ingredients like ergothioneine [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation of Consumer Sector**: The Hong Kong consumer sector is currently valued at historical lows, with the Hang Seng Consumer Index PE close to the 20th percentile over the past decade, indicating market pessimism [3][10]. - **Z Generation Consumer Behavior**: The Z generation is shifting from functional purchases to emotional and experiential ones, significantly impacting the essential consumer sector. This demographic is also price-sensitive, favoring high-cost-performance brands [3][15]. - **Risks in Essential Consumer Sector**: Despite its defensive nature, the essential consumer sector faces risks such as rising raw material costs and potential declines in consumer purchasing power during economic downturns [13][14]. - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised to assess their risk profiles and consider funds that cover essential industries for stability, while more aggressive investors may explore high-volatility sectors like liquor [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Hong Kong consumer sector.

从长期看，渗透率提升空间仍大，连锁化率与集中度持续提升。2023年，国内人均现制茶饮年消费量为 11杯，而中国香港及中国台湾地区则均超50杯。现制茶饮的渗透率成长空间广阔，随着未来新客群渗 透、消费频次提升，现制茶饮规模有望实现进一步增长。尤其是下沉市场的空间潜力大，2023年国内一 线城市的人均消费为27杯，二线及以下城市为不到10杯，引发龙头企业关注和深挖。从结构来看，行业 连锁化率与集中度持续提升，2023年中国现制茶饮连锁化率（门店口径）为56.1%，较2018年提升17.1 个百分点。近年来各头部品牌保持快速拓店，而中小品牌持续出清，预计行业集中度仍将持续提升。 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：财信证券研究） 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全A指数阶段性向下调整，跌破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企 稳信号出现。一是从资金面来看，11月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但12月中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布 局2026年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二是中央经济工作会议通常在12月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预计在中央经济工 作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来看，2015年以来，上证指数曾屡次挑战3700点未果，本次有效突破3700 点以后，上证指数3700点附近将从"强压力位"转为"强支撑位"，后续指数调整空间可能有限。我们对中长期市场走势仍然保有信 心，A股这一轮"牛市"并未结束，我们预计12月中旬前后，市场将迎来再次做多的机会窗口期。 投资建议。短期建议适当控制仓位水平，以防守方向为主，适当关注：（1）高股息的大盘蓝筹。例如银行、保险、公用事业、交通 运输等。（2）新消费方向。例如健康、文旅、体育、美容护理、IP经济、宠物经济、文化娱乐等。（3）"反内卷"方向。例如钢 铁、煤炭、建材等。（4）AI应用方向。例如传媒 ...

近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告。各家金融机构报告显示，明年中国经济将延续稳健增长 态势。 多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加 之下，经济将持续稳健上升。 光大证券首席宏观分析师 赵格格：在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经 济增长潜力与提质升级空间，宏观政策工具箱储备充足。 外资机构普遍预测，明年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政 策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内卷"措施下，2026年中国经济将温和增长。瑞银预计2026年国内将 施行更加精准的政策支持，经济活动整体将保持韧性。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室亚太经济学家 菲利普·怀亚特：比如为企业提供能源成本方面的优惠或补 贴，面向消费者的补贴；对首套房购房者的支持等，这些都属于"定向支持"。 此外，"十五五"规划建议也令外资机构充满信心。高盛认为，规划建议体现了中国将进一步提升先进制 造业竞争力，提振出口的决心和能力。基于此，高盛上调了对中国出口增速和实际GDP增速的预测。 与此同时，内需市场的潜力正加速释放。随着一系列促消费、惠民 ...

Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining caution in the short term and waiting for market stabilization [5][9] - The overall A-share market has seen a decline, with the Wind All A Index dropping by 3.17% to 6030.56 points, and various indices reflecting similar downward trends [7][8] Economic Insights - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 10.4% year-on-year, reaching 857.2 billion kWh [15][16] - The breakdown of electricity consumption shows significant growth in the tertiary industry, particularly in charging services and information technology sectors [16] Industry Dynamics - A meeting was held to promote stable livestock production, noting that the number of breeding sows fell below 40 million by the end of October [25] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the livestock sector for potential price stabilization due to production adjustments [25] Company Updates - Baili Tianheng (688506.SH) received acceptance for its drug application for the first-in-class EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC for treating advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma [27][28] - Jindi Co., Ltd. (603270.SH) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dongpei Co., Ltd. to collaborate on humanoid robot harmonic reducer assemblies [29][30] - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) successfully secured small batch orders for ball screws and roller screws through negotiations with a leading foreign screw manufacturer [31][32] Local Economic Developments - Hengguang Co., Ltd. (301118.SZ) reported a reduction in shareholding by a major shareholder, which did not significantly impact the company's governance structure [33] - The Hunan provincial government launched the first phase of its public data circulation infrastructure, marking a significant step in digital economic development [34]