行情回顾及主要观点： 雅鲁藏布江世纪工程开工，有望激励顺周期板块。7月19日，总投资约1.2万亿元的雅鲁藏布江下游水电 工程在西藏林芝正式开工。这项世纪工程体量巨大、周期长（预计超10年），更深远的影响在于其强大 的产业链带动效应。作为国家级超级工程，雅鲁藏布江水电开发涉及极其复杂的施工和技术挑战，将强 力驱动相关产业升级： · 土建工程： 大规模截弯取直、隧洞挖掘是核心。 · 机械与高端装备： 重型施工机械、大型发电机组及智能控制系统需求巨大。 · 建材与材料： 水泥、钢材等大宗建材消耗量惊人。 · 电网建设： 电力外送需要强大的输配电网络支撑。 港股通央企红利ETF（513920）一指捕捉港股高股息央企，其成分股中不乏建筑工程、石油天然气、煤 炭、电力等顺周期板块，且优选这些顺周期板块中的优质高分红、低估值公司，在当前基建投资发力、 反内卷持续推进的背景之下，具备较高的配置机遇。 港股央企红利的股息率更高、估值更低。恒生港股通中国央企红利指数股息率达5.81%（vs中证红利 4.50%），PB为0.64，PE为6.98。其全收益指数自2021年初以来累计收益124%，相对恒生全收益指数超 额收益116%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the strong performance of the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and its associated ETF, indicating a favorable investment environment driven by high dividend yields and stable cash flows from leading companies like China Shenhua Energy [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 22, 2025, the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index rose by 1.26%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Tunnel Co. and Shanxi Coal [2]. - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) has seen a recent price increase of 1.19%, marking its third consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.1 yuan [2]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a 0.37% increase, with a trading volume of 1.27% and a total transaction value of 13.39 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Growth - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF has reached a new scale of 1.052 billion yuan, the highest in nearly a year [3]. - In the last two weeks, the ETF's shares increased by 7 million, ranking second among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 1.0854 million yuan, with a total of 18.26 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days [3]. Group 3: Leverage and Returns - The ETF's latest financing buy-in amount reached 249.11 thousand yuan, with a financing balance of 1.65053 million yuan [5]. - The ETF's net value has increased by 18.24% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [5]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profit probability of 100%, with an average monthly return of 3.47% during rising months [5]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [6]. - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.069% over the past month, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [6]. Group 5: Index Composition - The China Securities Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index includes 100 stocks characterized by high liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility [6]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 20.14% of the total index weight, including companies like Jizhong Energy and China Shenhua [6].

AI基金东吴国企改革混合A（002159）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润54.91万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0394元。报告期内，基金净值增长率 为5.07%，截至二季度末，基金规模为1103.11万元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金。截至7月18日，单位净值为0.839元。基金经理是周健，目前管理5只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至7月18日，东吴中证新 兴指数近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达19.25%；东吴配置优化混合A最低，为8.36%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，本报告期内，本产品采用红利策略，在国企标的努力中寻找具备高分红、低波动、低估值、大市值特征的个股，以基本面研究 为核心，借助大类资产、风格和行业的轮动灵活调整组合，致力提升基金的风险调整后收益。 截至7月18日，东吴国企改革混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为5.42%，位于同类可比基金699/880；近半年复权单位净值增长率为7.62%，位于同类可比 基金480/880；近一年复权单位净值增长率为10.40%，位于同类可比基金567/880；近三年复权单位净值增长率为-2.18%，位于同类可比基金292/871。 通过所选区间该 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in the banking sector's focus from fundamental expectations and growth thinking to strategy and trading thinking, highlighting the evolving landscape of investment approaches in the industry [2][29]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Three significant regulatory actions have guided the banking industry from "wild growth" to orderly expansion: 1. In 2011, the tightening of city commercial banks' cross-regional expansion and the central bank's credit scale control ended the disorderly expansion of the banking sector [16][20]. 2. The introduction of the MPA assessment in 2016 served as a core regulatory framework, preventing small and medium-sized banks from circumventing regulations and promoting stability [21][23]. 3. The implementation of asset management regulations in 2018 significantly constrained the expansion of non-standard assets in banks, addressing risks associated with shadow banking [24][28]. Group 2: Valuation Framework - A new understanding of the valuation framework for banks is presented, emphasizing the "PB-ROE" model, where banks with higher ROE typically correspond to higher PB ratios. The introduction of dividend yield and payout ratio into this framework suggests that banks with an ROE above 11.7% could justify a PB valuation above 1 [32][33]. - The report notes a shift in the driving logic behind bank stock price increases from growth logic to dividend strategies, indicating a transition in market focus from numerator-driven factors (like ROE) to denominator-driven factors (like dividend yield) [32][33]. Group 3: Historical Performance Review - A comprehensive review of bank stocks from 2008 to 2022 reveals that the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, achieving nine rounds of excess returns lasting over three months. The core driving factors shifted from growth to dividends over this period [8][29]. - Specific periods of excess returns are highlighted, such as: 1. From November 2008 to July 2009, the sector achieved an absolute return of 139.8% and an excess return of 15.3% [19]. 2. In 2011, despite negative absolute returns, the sector still managed an excess return of 17.6% [19]. 3. The period from October 2014 to December 2014 saw an absolute return of 60% and an excess return of 14.9% [19]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. Anticipating a reduction in insurance preset interest rates in Q3 2025, it recommends focusing on high-dividend banks such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3]. 2. The strong performance of small and medium-sized banks since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, with recommendations for banks like Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, and Nanjing Bank based on valuation, dividends, and fundamentals [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that dividend assets are gaining popularity in a low-interest-rate environment, with the launch of the Rongtong CSI Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF Fund, which raised 983 million yuan [1] - The long-term investment value of dividend assets has been validated in the A-share market, and the dividend strategy is considered to have a relatively high cost-performance ratio under the current economic conditions [1][2] - The new "National Nine Articles" policy strengthens the regulation of cash dividends for listed companies, indicating a shift towards greater emphasis on shareholder returns in the A-share market [1][2] Group 2 - The CSI Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend Index has shown a cumulative return of 95.97% and an annualized return of 8.59% from December 30, 2016, to May 30, 2025, outperforming other indices [1] - Central enterprises are identified as a crucial pillar of the national economy and are significant contributors to dividends, with a total dividend payout of approximately 1.25 trillion yuan from the index constituents over the past three years [2][3] - The index's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 11.4 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.08 times, both at their lowest levels in the past decade, indicating substantial potential for valuation recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking sector Core Insights - The growth of domestic RMB loans reached 268.6 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.10%, indicating a downward shift in the loan growth rate since 2024 [1] - The total domestic RMB deposit balance was 320.2 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.30%, showing an acceleration in deposit growth due to a low base effect from the previous year [3] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds reached 45.87 billion yuan in Q2, with a total issuance of 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is expected to gradually reduce the negative impact on credit growth [1][3] Summary by Sections Loan Growth - In Q1 2025, new loans added amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, while Q2 saw a decrease to 3.1 trillion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in medium to long-term loans for enterprises [1] - Short-term loans and bill financing for enterprises decreased by 129 billion yuan, with bill financing down by 660.2 billion yuan as banks shifted focus to higher-yielding loans and bonds [1] Deposit Growth - Q1 2025 saw an increase of 13.0 trillion yuan in deposits, while Q2 added 5.0 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from non-bank deposits, household deposits, and government deposits [3] - The structure of deposits is shifting from on-balance-sheet to off-balance-sheet, driven by declining deposit rates [3] Sector Outlook - Short-term impacts from tariff policies may affect exports, but long-term expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption are expected to support economic growth [4] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from these policies, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, China Europe Dividend Smart Mixed A (023584), reported a profit of 7.22 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 3% during the period [3] Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund's profit for the second quarter was 7.22 million yuan, resulting in a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.03 yuan [3] - As of the end of Q2, the fund's scale was 248 million yuan [3] - The unit net value as of July 18 was 1.037 yuan [3] Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - The fund manager, Zhang Xueming, oversees five funds, with the highest one-year return for China Europe Prosperity Selected Mixed A at 39.63%, while China Europe Quality Selected Mixed A had the lowest at 14.46% [3] - The fund management indicated that the dividend strategy remains a foundational strategy, complementing the prosperity strategy, allowing for rotation to enhance returns in specific months [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The dividend strategy is referred to as a "safety net strategy" or carry strategy overseas, with its foundation based on dividend returns, considered to have the highest market lower limit [3] - The annualized return is easily measurable, and the fund management emphasizes the importance of being objective regarding dividend performance, noting that significant fluctuations in performance are often unreasonable [3] Group 4: Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Zhongchuang Zhiling, OPPLE Lighting, Tiandi Technology, Zhonggu Logistics, Shouhua Environmental Protection, Huate Dain, Shangfeng Cement, Xinhua Insurance, Ordos, Midea Group, and Zhengmei Machine [4]

Group 1 - Liu Jian has been promoted to Vice General Manager of Tongtai Fund, marking another case of a high-performing fund manager advancing within the company [1][3] - Liu Jian previously held positions at Hang Seng Bank (China), Baoying Fund Management, and Ping An Fund Management before joining Tongtai Fund in June 2020 [3] - Liu Jian has managed two funds, Tongtai Preferred Allocation 3-Month Holding Mixed FOF and Tongtai Active Allocation 3-Month Holding Stock FOF, since late 2021 [3][4] Group 2 - The Tongtai Preferred Allocation 3-Month Holding Mixed FOF has shown strong performance, with a net value growth rate of 24.55% over the past year, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 12.84% [4] - The fund's strategy includes a mix of different types of ETFs and index funds, along with selected active funds, aiming for both relative and absolute returns [4] - Liu Jian anticipates structural investment opportunities in the capital market, focusing on new productivity sectors and benefiting from a low-interest-rate environment [4] Group 3 - The trend of high-performing fund managers being promoted to higher positions is evident in the industry, with several recent examples from various fund companies [6][7] - Promotions often reflect a strategy to attract and retain top-performing fund managers, although there are concerns about potential conflicts of interest and divided focus due to dual roles [7]

Group 1 - Liu Jian has been promoted to Vice General Manager of Tongtai Fund, marking another case of a high-performing fund manager advancing within the company [2][4] - Liu Jian previously held positions at Hang Seng Bank (China), Baoying Fund Management, and Ping An Fund Management before joining Tongtai Fund in June 2020 [4] - Under Liu Jian's management, the Tongtai Optimal Allocation 3-Month Holding Mixed FOF achieved a net value growth rate of 24.55% over the past year, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 12.84% [5] Group 2 - Liu Jian anticipates structural investment opportunities in the capital market, focusing on new productive forces in the stock market and a relatively certain loose monetary environment in the bond market [6] - The fund's strategy includes a mix of different types of ETFs and index funds, supplemented by selected active funds to balance relative and absolute returns [5] - The trend of high-performing fund managers being promoted to higher positions is noted, with several cases in the industry this year, indicating a strategy to attract and retain top talent [8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of dividend assets has surged in the first half of this year, particularly in bank stocks, which have reached historical highs, leading to increased attention on dividend strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In a low-interest-rate environment, various investment assets are yielding lower returns, prompting insurance funds to favor high-dividend assets [2]. - The banking sector has seen an 18.68% increase in its index year-to-date, contributing significantly to the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points [3]. - Banks like Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China are actively promoting dividend strategy products through their apps [3]. Group 2: Product Evaluation - The "Agricultural Bank's Craftsmanship · Flexible 360-Day Wealth Management Product (Dividend Preferred)" has a maximum drawdown of 0.05% since inception, indicating low volatility [3][4]. - The product has an annualized return of 4.6% over the past month, but its annualized return since inception is only 3.14%, ranking it below 29.61% of similar products [3][10]. - The product's comprehensive score is 51, outperforming 51.94% of similar products, with specific scores in various categories such as risk control and fee structure [4][10]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The product employs a dividend strategy, investing primarily in fixed-income assets while allocating no more than 20% to dividend assets, which include dividend index funds and high-dividend stocks [7][12]. - This strategy is considered defensive, providing a "safety net" through dividend income, although it may underperform during market rallies [12]. - The product is designed for long-term investment, requiring a minimum holding period of 360 days, making it suitable for funds that are not needed in the short term [12][13].