格隆汇2月18日｜中指研究院表示，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，也是稳地产的关键一年。市场回稳的 核心在于信心恢复与预期改善。12月末，北京已率先优化楼市政策；财政部、税务总局联合发文，个人 销售住房增值税征收率迎来下调。预计2026年相关政策将继续靠前发力，加快稳地产，进而推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [51] Core Insights - The construction materials industry is experiencing a continuous release of "stabilizing real estate" signals, with further optimization of supply-side measures [2][42] - Cement production is strictly regulated according to approved capacity, with over 280 clinker production lines replaced by the end of 2025, resulting in an annual capacity reduction of 150 million tons [3][42] - The glass fiber industry is undergoing a structural recovery driven by "anti-involution" policies, with demand shifting from traditional construction materials to high-growth emerging fields [44] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a 3.37% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.75 percentage points [11] - The cement market is facing a decline in production and prices due to reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure [3][21] Cement - The average price of cement is currently 316 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB from the previous week, with regional variations in demand affecting prices [21] - The cement industry is expected to see demand supported by major infrastructure projects and urban renewal in 2026, despite ongoing price fluctuations [3][43] Glass and Glass Fiber - The average price of float glass in December 2025 was 1121.29 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.0% [44] - The glass fiber sector is benefiting from high demand in advanced applications such as AI servers and 5G communications, with a focus on upgrading production technologies [44] Consumer Building Materials - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notice promoting green consumption, which is expected to drive growth in the renovation and urban renewal sectors [45] - Leading companies are enhancing their market share through brand advantages and service improvements, focusing on retail and overseas expansion [45] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, including Shangfeng Cement (000672), Tapai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) [43][46]

Industry Overview - The core logic supporting the surge in aluminum prices is a tight balance between supply and demand, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaching 44.46 million tons, nearing the 45 million tons capacity ceiling, and only an estimated 550,000 tons of new capacity expected by 2026 [1] - On the supply side, projects in Indonesia and India are experiencing slow capacity release due to power and political factors, with an expected annual increase of only 1.3 million tons [1] - Demand is being driven by the accelerated "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors, as well as new demand from emerging fields such as AI and energy storage [1] Company Insights - Xinjiang Zhonghe's main products include high-purity aluminum, electronic aluminum foil, electrode foil, aluminum products, and alloy products, with a market share of approximately 40% for high-purity aluminum [3] - China Aluminum has the largest alumina production capacity in the world [4]

Core Insights - The overall real estate market in China is expected to continue its adjustment trend in 2025, with second-hand housing in core cities maintaining stable volumes through "price for volume" strategies, while improvement demand becomes the main support for the new housing market [1][6] - The report anticipates that policy optimizations in Beijing and tax reductions will be implemented by the end of 2025, with further policy efforts expected in 2026 to stabilize the real estate market [1][6] Second-hand Housing Market - In 2025, approximately 1.74 million second-hand residential units are expected to be sold in 30 key cities, showing a year-on-year stability [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 25% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while the second quarter experienced a slowdown [1] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen showed significant rebounds in transaction volumes, with year-on-year increases of 7% and 4% respectively [2][1] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the total market is projected to rise to about 65% in 2025, up 4 percentage points from 2024 [2] New Housing Market - Improvement housing demand is identified as a key support for the new housing market, with larger units (120-144 square meters) seeing increased sales [3] - In 2025, 20 out of 30 representative cities reported an increase in the sales of larger units compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The average clearing cycle for available inventory in 50 cities is reported to be 22.2 months, indicating a slow-moving market [3] Policy Changes - A significant policy optimization was announced in Beijing on December 24, 2025, aimed at stimulating the market through various measures, including lowering social security requirements for non-local buyers and supporting multi-child families [4] - Following the new policies, there was an increase in the average daily signing of new and second-hand homes in Beijing, indicating a positive market response [4] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, which will impact the sale of homes purchased for less than two years [5] Future Outlook - The report suggests that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will continue to be implemented in 2026, focusing on demand stimulation and supply optimization [6] - The overall market is still in a "de-inventory" phase, with limited new housing supply in most cities, which may pose challenges for market recovery [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its adjustment trend in 2025, with second-hand housing in core cities maintaining stability through "price for volume" strategies, while improvement demand becomes the main support for the new housing market [1] Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market - In 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 30 key cities is estimated to be around 1.74 million units, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 25% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while the second quarter experienced a slowdown, with a 13% year-on-year growth in September [1] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the total market reached approximately 65% in 2025, an increase of 4 percentage points from 2024 [2] Group 2: New Housing Market - Improvement housing demand is a significant support for the new housing market, with larger units (120-144 square meters) seeing an increase in transaction share across 30 representative cities [3] - The average clearing cycle for available inventory in 50 cities is 22.2 months, indicating a slow-moving market [3] - New housing prices in 100 cities have increased by 2.58% due to the entry of improvement-type properties, while second-hand housing prices have decreased by 8.36% cumulatively [3] Group 3: Policy Impact - A policy optimization announced in December 2025 in Beijing aims to stimulate the market by lowering purchase requirements for non-local families and supporting multi-child families [4] - Following the new policy, the average daily signing volume for new and second-hand homes in Beijing increased by 72.8% and 37.4% respectively compared to the previous period [4] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, which will impact the sale of homes purchased less than two years ago [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that policies will continue to be implemented in 2026 to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on demand stimulation and supply optimization [6] - The overall market is still in a "de-stocking" phase, with limited new housing supply in most cities, while core cities maintain a certain level of new supply [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the price divergence between new and second-hand housing in major Chinese cities will continue until the end of 2025 [1] - In December 2025, the average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities is projected to be 17,084 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same cities is expected to be 13,016 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, leading to the introduction of several related policies [1] - A new tax policy was announced on December 30, reducing the value-added tax on personal sales of housing purchased for less than two years from 5% to 3%, while properties held for over two years remain exempt from VAT [1] - The analysis from the China Index Academy suggests that 2026 will be a crucial year for stabilizing the real estate market, with potential policy optimizations in core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent learning and communication of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit by various departments and regions is an important window for tracking the implementation of the conference's spirit, revealing more details and actionable measures [2] Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are focusing on the "stability while seeking progress, improving quality and efficiency" principle, with clear directions and highlighted priorities such as expanding domestic demand, strengthening technology, promoting reform, and stabilizing real estate [3][5] - The central government is expected to continue "leveraging" with specific scales to be determined at the 2026 National Two Sessions, emphasizing proactive measures and reasonable acceleration of fund disbursement [4][6] - Departments are prioritizing support for expanding domestic demand, utilizing various funds, and continuing to support "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, including fostering trillion-level new consumption growth points [6][7] Group 2: Financial and Monetary Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank are maintaining a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels [6][8] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, along with introducing more structural tools [2][4] - There is an emphasis on accelerating fiscal spending and issuing special bonds to support consumption and investment [6][7] Group 3: Industry and Innovation - There is a strong focus on industrial transformation, self-control, and innovation leadership, with initiatives to promote technology finance and the construction of international technology innovation centers in key regions [7][8] - The government is pushing for reforms to create a unified market, enhance the development of the private economy, and deepen state-owned enterprise reforms [8][9] Group 4: Risk Management - The financial system is focused on preventing risks, particularly in the real estate sector, while ensuring support for both residents and real estate companies [9][10] - Measures are being taken to stabilize the stock market and promote long-term investments, including accelerating reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and piloting commercial real estate REITs [10][11] Group 5: Local Implementation - Various regions are adapting the central economic work conference's spirit to their local contexts, emphasizing proactive measures and specific actionable tasks, with a focus on ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [13][14] - Local governments are expected to detail their plans and measures in the upcoming local two sessions in January 2026, with a strong emphasis on innovation and openness [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent learning and dissemination of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit by various departments and regions is a crucial window for tracking the implementation of the conference's directives, revealing more details and actionable measures. There are several highlights and new proposals, including a focus on proactive measures, accelerating fund disbursement, supporting new consumption growth points, and emphasizing real and substantial growth without exaggeration [2][3][11]. Group 1: Overall Direction - All parties are refining their deployment around the Central Economic Work Conference's principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," with clear directions and highlighted priorities such as expanding domestic demand, strengthening technology, promoting reform, and stabilizing real estate [3][11]. - The emphasis is on policies that "act proactively" to ensure a good start to the year [3][11]. Group 2: Departmental Deployment - Each department has made detailed deployments based on their functional positioning, with the Central Financial Office providing the most comprehensive interpretation of the conference's spirit, revealing specific tasks and details [4][12]. - Signal 1: The continuation of "central leverage" is confirmed, with specific scales to be determined at the 2026 National Two Sessions, emphasizing proactive measures and reasonable acceleration of fund disbursement [4][12]. - Signal 2: Multiple departments will prioritize expanding domestic demand, utilizing various funds, and supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, with new focuses on cultivating trillion-level new consumption growth points and increasing investment in consumption infrastructure and livelihood projects [4][12][13]. Group 3: Industry Focus - Signal 3: There is a strong focus on industrial transformation, self-control, and innovation leadership, promoting the expansion and efficiency of technology finance, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions [5][14]. - Signal 4: The emphasis on reform includes advancing a unified market, combating "involution," and stabilizing the private sector, with more details on fiscal and tax reforms to be discussed in the upcoming National Fiscal Work Conference [6][15]. Group 4: Risk Management and Market Stability - Signal 6: There is a strict adherence to the "no explosion" bottom line for risk prevention, balancing the needs of residents and real estate companies, and reiterating the principles for debt resolution while increasing financial and fiscal support [8][17]. - Signal 7: Efforts to stabilize the stock market will continue, promoting the narrative of the Chinese stock market and accelerating reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs [9][18]. Group 5: Local Implementation - Many regions have begun to learn and convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, tailoring key tasks to local conditions, with a focus on proactive measures and concrete actions, particularly in the lead-up to the January 2026 local two sessions [10][23]. - Localities like Zhejiang and Hainan are emphasizing innovation and openness, respectively, while ensuring that actionable measures are taken to support economic growth [10][23][24].

Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are refining their implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit, focusing on "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement" as the main themes[3] - Emphasis on accelerating the disbursement of funds and implementing major projects ahead of schedule to ensure a strong start in 2026[2] - The central government plans to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit and debt scale, with the overall fiscal deficit expected to be similar to that of 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Growth Strategies - Aiming to cultivate new consumption growth points worth trillions, with increased investment in consumer infrastructure and social welfare projects[6] - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand, supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, and implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan" major projects[6] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate economic activity[2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Stability - A commitment to prevent financial risks, ensuring that no major defaults occur, particularly in the real estate sector[10] - The government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market while balancing the needs of residents and property companies[10] - Continuous efforts to promote the stock market narrative and attract long-term investments, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs pilot programs[10]

Group 1: Economic Overview - US inflation for October and November was significantly lower than expected, with a potential rebound in December. The focus of the Federal Reserve has shifted towards addressing weak employment under a K-shaped recovery, maintaining an overall accommodative policy stance, and market expectations for interest rate cuts next year have increased [1][11] - In China, November data on consumption and investment showed weakness, indicating that domestic demand still needs stabilization. However, the recovery in export growth has supported industrial production, while retail sales were affected by the decline in government subsidies and the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1][11] Group 2: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remained stable, with short-term yields declining and mid to long-term yields showing volatility. The central bank is expected to implement substantial easing to lower bank funding costs ahead of potential interest rate cuts [2][12] - For A-shares, the framework indicates a bottoming of profits, but liquidity and risk appetite remain negative. The rapid decline in US CPI has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting the offshore market [2][13] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase benefiting from liquidity but facing weak fundamentals. The improvement of the price level in 2026 will be crucial for market performance [2][13] Group 3: Commodity Insights - In the oil market, global economic fundamentals indicate weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation, leading to sustained price pressure [3][14] - For gold, the reduction of uncertainties due to easing US-China trade tensions and a shift in focus from trade to domestic policy may lead to a gradual decrease in risk premiums, potentially slowing the pace of gold price increases while maintaining a positive long-term outlook [3][14]