Industry Overview - The core logic supporting the surge in aluminum prices is a tight balance between supply and demand, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaching 44.46 million tons, nearing the 45 million tons capacity ceiling, and only an estimated 550,000 tons of new capacity expected by 2026 [1] - On the supply side, projects in Indonesia and India are experiencing slow capacity release due to power and political factors, with an expected annual increase of only 1.3 million tons [1] - Demand is being driven by the accelerated "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors, as well as new demand from emerging fields such as AI and energy storage [1] Company Insights - Xinjiang Zhonghe's main products include high-purity aluminum, electronic aluminum foil, electrode foil, aluminum products, and alloy products, with a market share of approximately 40% for high-purity aluminum [3] - China Aluminum has the largest alumina production capacity in the world [4]

1月2日，中指研究院发布的房地产市场报告显示，2025年全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势，核心城市 二手房在"以价换量"下维持稳定规模，改善性需求成为新房市场核心支撑。该机构认为，叠加2025年年 末北京政策优化及增值税减免等新政落地，预计2026年相关政策将继续靠前发力，加快稳地产。 另以深圳为例，据乐有家研究中心监测，自2025年3月以来，深圳二手房录得量连续10个月超5000套， 其中3月小阳春和12月翘尾创下2个小高峰，分别为7703套，6613套。 此外，据克而瑞数据，成都、杭州、天津、西安、武汉、南京等核心强二线城市二手房市场也走出了内 生驱动下的"独立行情"，凭借"产业-人口"正循环支撑展现出强大的市场内生修复能力，全年成交面积2- 3倍于新房成交规模。 根据机构统计数据，二手房对市场的支撑作用正在进一步凸显。2025年，30城二手住宅成交套数占新房 及二手房合计成交量的比重约为65%，较2024年全年提升4个百分点。 从新房市场表现看，改善性住房需求仍为新房市场的重要支撑。根据中指监测数据，2025年以来，北 京、上海、成都、宁波、合肥等城市高总价改善楼盘去化表现良好，带动30城120平方米以上 ...

1月2日，中指研究院发布的房地产市场报告显示，2025年全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势，核心城市 二手房在"以价换量"下维持稳定规模，改善性需求成为新房市场核心支撑。该机构认为，叠加2025年年 末北京政策优化及增值税减免等新政落地，预计2026年相关政策将继续靠前发力，加快稳地产。 根据中指研究院统计数据，2025年，重点30城二手住宅成交约174万套，同比基本持平。其中，一季度 市场保持较高活跃度，30城二手住宅成交套数同比增长25%，二季度市场有所降温，同比增幅收窄，9 月二手房市场热度有所修复，重点城市二手住宅成交量同比增长13%，带动三季度同比小幅增长1%， 四季度月均成交量相比三季度有所回落，但"以价换量"下仍维持稳定规模。 从新房市场表现看，改善性住房需求仍为新房市场的重要支撑。根据中指监测数据，2025年以来，北 京、上海、成都、宁波、合肥等城市高总价改善楼盘去化表现良好，带动30城120平方米以上户型新房 成交占比持续提升，其中120-144平方米户型占比超30%，改善需求成为新房市场供求主力。具体城市 来看，与2024年同期相比，2025年1-11月，30个代表城市中，20个城市120-1 ...

中新社北京1月1日电 (记者庞无忌)中国主要城市新房与二手房价格分化的走势持续到2025年年末。 中指研究院2026年1月1日发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为每平方 米17084元(人民币，下同)，环比上涨0.28%；同比上涨2.58%。当月，100个城市二手住宅平均价格为每 平方米13016元，环比下跌0.97%；同比下跌8.36%。 中指研究院分析称，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，也是稳地产的关键一年，相关政策有望靠前发力。北 上深等核心城市限制性政策有望继续优化，城中村改造货币化安置、房贷利率调价、购房补贴加力等具 备发力空间。从供给端来看，去年土地市场已在"缩量提质"，各地"好房子"的建设标准也在不断完善， 后续有望继续通过优质供给激发改善性需求。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 2025年12月，在新建住宅方面，深圳、北京、上海、南京等城市均有高端改善性项目入市，带动百城新 房价格环比结构性上涨。二手住宅方面，二手房挂牌量仍在高位，房价继续调整。 今年中国楼市怎么走？2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"。当月，多项房 地产相关政策出 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 熊园观察 国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧 事件：近期各部门各地陆续学习中央经济工作会议精神，并结合各部门职能定位和各地实际细化落实， 中财办也接受采访解读会议精神。 核心观点：各部委各地学习传达中央经济工作会议精神，是跟踪会议精神落地的重要窗口，会"披露"更 多细节和工作抓手。总体看，有不少亮点、新提法和增量信息，包括：靠前发力，拿出更多实招硬招， 持续讲好"股市叙事"，合理加快资金下达拨付，继续支持"两新"，培育万亿级消费新增长点，加大消费 基建和民生类投资，靠前实施"十五五"重大项目，各级各类规划都要追求"实实在在、没有水分"的增长 等。继续提示，2026年政策大基调已确定，多部门也已部署政策靠前发力、确保年初"开门红"，短期重 点关注：1）2026年"以旧换新"、重大项目的"吹风"与部署，各地重大项目可能的早开工、早建设，各 地稳地产的举措、尤其是北上深等一线城市（北京于12.24放松限购）；2）财政节奏大概率前置，可能 的包括加快财政支出进度、提前下达一批消费"国补"额度、延续消费贴息，加快专项债发行 ...

来源：熊园-国盛证券首席经济学家 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧 事件：近期各部门各地陆续学习中央经济工作会议精神，并结合各部门职能定位和各地实际细化落实，中财办也接受采访解读会议精神。 核心观点：各部委各地学习传达中央经济工作会议精神，是跟踪会议精神落地的重要窗口，会"披露"更多细节和工作抓手。总体看，有不少亮点、新提法 和增量信息，包括：靠前发力，拿出更多实招硬招，持续讲好"股市叙事"，合理加快资金下达拨付，继续支持"两新"，培育万亿级消费新增长点，加大消 费基建和民生类投资，靠前实施"十五五"重大项目，各级各类规划都要追求"实实在在、没有水分"的增长等。继续提示，2026年政策大基调已确定，多部 门也已部署政策靠前发力、确保年初"开门红"，短期重点关注：1）2026年"以旧换新"、重大项目的"吹风"与部署，各地重大项目可能的早开工、早建 设，各地稳地产的举措、尤其是北上深等一线城市（北京于12.24放松限购）；2）财政节奏大概率前置，可能的包括加快财政支出进度、提前下达一批消 费"国补"额度、延续消费贴息，加快专项债发行、并优化投向等；3）央行一季度可能的降准降息，推出更多结构性工具；4）2026年1月地方两 ...

Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are refining their implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit, focusing on "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement" as the main themes[3] - Emphasis on accelerating the disbursement of funds and implementing major projects ahead of schedule to ensure a strong start in 2026[2] - The central government plans to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit and debt scale, with the overall fiscal deficit expected to be similar to that of 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Growth Strategies - Aiming to cultivate new consumption growth points worth trillions, with increased investment in consumer infrastructure and social welfare projects[6] - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand, supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, and implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan" major projects[6] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate economic activity[2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Stability - A commitment to prevent financial risks, ensuring that no major defaults occur, particularly in the real estate sector[10] - The government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market while balancing the needs of residents and property companies[10] - Continuous efforts to promote the stock market narrative and attract long-term investments, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs pilot programs[10]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 海外方面，美国10~11月通胀大幅低于预期，居住分项可能存在低估，12月或有所反弹。从中期视角 看，美国通胀问题已经不是资产交易的主要矛盾，美联储重心更多放在应对K型分化下的弱就业，整体 维持宽松政策立场，市场对明年的降息预期也有所回升。日央行加息落地，此前预期较充分，且日元、 美股情绪不极端，资产反应平淡。 国内方面，11月消费、投资等数据偏弱，显示内需仍待企稳。出口增速回升带动工业生产维持韧性，社 零受国补及"双十一"退坡影响有所走弱、服务业消费相对偏强。11月广义财政支出环比有所改善，地产 链消费及投资端数据继续回落，地产走弱拖累居民信贷，与企业出现一定分化。中央经济工作会议对地 产政策的定调较为积极，"稳地产"政策预期进一步升温。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周税期资金面平稳，债市对基本面脱敏，机构行为主导市场行情，短端收 益率下行，中长端收益率先上后下，超长端波动加剧。12月以来DR001下限打开、中枢进一步回落，或 说明央行在降息落地前通过实质宽松来降低银行负债成本、支持基本面，25年增长目标基本有望顺利实 现、26年1-2月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "stabilize real estate," indicating ongoing policy support and the necessity for further actions in 2026 [1][10]. - The report highlights the importance of internal demand, suggesting potential relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in core cities and reforms in the housing provident fund system [2][11]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, with a focus on quality housing and the improvement of the competitive landscape favoring leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms [4][10]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Review - The conference reiterates the commitment to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing inventory reduction and the construction of quality housing [1][10]. - Policies will be tailored to individual cities, focusing on controlling new supply and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [1][10]. Market Review - The weekly performance of the Shenwan Real Estate Index showed a decline of 2.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][15]. - The report notes a significant drop in new home sales, with a 45.3% year-on-year decrease in 30 cities, and a 30% decline in second-hand home sales [3][33]. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 172.2 million square meters, down 2.5% month-on-month and 45.3% year-on-year [3][28]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities reached 195.9 million square meters, reflecting a 2.7% month-on-month increase but a 30% year-on-year decline [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market recovery [4][10]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to experience reduced trading volume, with a total turnover of 1.55 trillion yuan, indicating a defensive market sentiment [1] - The largest ETF, the SSE 50 ETF, saw a net inflow of 437 million yuan, while the A500 ETF, favored by investors since October 21, recorded a net inflow of 244 million yuan yesterday, totaling 1.087 billion yuan for the week [1] - Industry-themed ETFs are attracting capital, with the gaming ETF and the power grid equipment ETF estimated to have net subscriptions of 57.75 million yuan and 62.39 million yuan respectively, with the latter seeing six consecutive days of inflows [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF, which balances value and growth, has a latest scale of 21.481 billion yuan and an average daily turnover of 4.185 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the top performer in its category [2] - The SSE 50 ETF, recognized as a blue-chip flagship, has a scale of 178.898 billion yuan and recorded a slight increase of 0.13% [2] - The power grid equipment ETF, which tracks the CSI Power Grid Equipment Index, has a weight of over 60% in ultra-high voltage and more than 19% in controllable nuclear fusion, with a recent net inflow of 832 million yuan over the past 20 days [2]