Economic Performance Overview - Major economies have shown varied performance in Q2, with the U.S. tariff policy impacting trade differently across countries [1][4] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in H1, with Q2 growth at 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong exports and macroeconomic policies [2] - The U.S. GDP increased by 3% on an annualized basis in Q2, recovering from a 0.5% contraction in Q1, influenced by a significant drop in imports and increased consumer spending [2] - The Eurozone's economy grew by only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, the lowest since early 2024, with Germany and Italy experiencing a 0.1% contraction [2] Regional Economic Insights - South Korea's economy rebounded with a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2, supported by increased exports and domestic demand [3] - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.52% year-on-year in H1, with Q2 growth at 7.96%, attributed to accelerated procurement by foreign buyers ahead of potential U.S. tariffs [3] Tariff Policy Implications - Experts warn of the structural changes in supply and demand relationships due to U.S. tariff policies, predicting significant pressure on global economic growth in Q4 and 2024 [4] - Short-term behaviors, such as companies stockpiling goods to avoid tariff impacts, may lead to trade cycle disruptions, which are not sustainable for long-term growth [4] Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised global economic growth forecasts for the next two years to 3% and 3.1%, influenced by factors such as preemptive stockpiling by importers and improved financial conditions [5] - Despite the positive adjustments, the IMF cautions that global economic activities remain distorted due to heightened tariff expectations and geopolitical tensions [5] Cooperation and Trade Framework - The IMF emphasizes the importance of pragmatic cooperation among economies to reduce trade barriers, suggesting that a predictable trade framework could enhance global economic growth [6]

Group 1 - Copper prices have experienced two waves of fluctuations since the end of June, with a peak of 80,990 yuan/ton and a low of 77,700 yuan/ton by mid-July, influenced by LME copper inventory pressures and policy announcements from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which has positively impacted copper prices, indicating potential for further price increases if detailed policies are released [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold three meetings in the second half of the year, with macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, likely to influence copper price expectations [1] Group 2 - CSPT decided not to set a reference standard for copper concentrate processing fees for Q3 2025 due to unsustainable market conditions, while new copper mines are expected to contribute to supply in the second half of the year [2] - The construction of container berths at Ningbo Daxie Port may affect the speed of imported scrap copper arrivals, although an increase in anode plate production is anticipated due to higher procurement by refineries [2] - LME copper inventory has accumulated again, alleviating market concerns, while domestic smelting plants are expected to face a maintenance peak from September to November [2] Group 3 - The U.S. copper tariff policy has led to increased volatility in U.S. copper prices without significantly altering global copper inventory structures [3] - The cable industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with no signs of accelerated production in the copper tube sector, while the automotive market is experiencing a consumption peak [3] - The financial attributes of copper prices are expected to enhance, leading to a return to a fluctuating market pattern [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has improved, with over 3,300 stocks rising, driven by capital inflow and increased trading volume, leading to a positive performance across major indices [1][2]. Industry Performance - **Top Performing Sectors**: - Defense and Military Industry: Increased by 3.07% due to expectations of order releases following supportive policies from financial institutions [2][3]. - Machinery Equipment: Rose by 1.98% as global mining capital expenditure trends upward and equipment export orders increase [3]. - Coal: Increased by 1.89% with strong futures prices and expectations of supply contraction due to new safety regulations [3]. - **Underperforming Sectors**: - Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology: Decreased by 0.65% due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and upcoming price negotiations [3]. - Retail: Fell by 0.23% as uncertainties in import costs and a decline in retail sales growth dampen sentiment [3]. - Construction Materials: Decreased by 0.23% as cement prices drop and demand remains weak [3]. Market Focus - The defense and military, machinery equipment, and coal sectors are leading the market due to favorable policies and improving economic conditions, while pharmaceuticals, retail, and construction materials are facing headwinds from regulatory and demand concerns [4]. Future Outlook - The market is currently in a period of intensive earnings disclosures, and the certainty of corporate performance will significantly influence capital allocation decisions moving forward [4].

据报道，泰国财政部表示，泰国政府可能动用超过200亿泰铢的预算来帮助缓冲美国关税政策对当地企 业的影响。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuma Technology, stated that the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on its operations is generally controllable due to its low sales proportion in the U.S. market [2] Company Overview - Yuma Technology is a leading enterprise in the domestic functional shading new materials industry, recognized for its high product quality, strong R&D capabilities, diverse product range, and specialized service capabilities [2] - The company has established stable and close cooperative relationships with customers in over 70 countries and regions across six continents, earning long-term trust from global clients [2] Business Performance - The company has experienced steady growth in recent years, with a wide range of applications for its functional new materials and a diverse customer base across various industries globally [2] - The primary sales markets for the company are Europe, Asia, and America, with a relatively low sales proportion in the U.S. [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shengnuo Group (01418) has issued a profit warning, expecting a significant decline in profits due to global trade fluctuations caused by U.S. tariff policies [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a profit of no less than 30 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to approximately 74.2 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] Market Impact - The U.S. tariff policies have severely disrupted Sino-U.S. trade and affected global supply chains, leading to increased uncertainty in production and logistics, as well as operational interruptions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shengnuo Group (01418) has issued a profit warning, expecting a profit of no less than 30 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to approximately 74.2 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2024, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade [1] Group 1 - Shengnuo Group's stock has dropped over 14%, currently down 14.52% at 0.265 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.2788 million HKD [1] - The profit warning indicates a significant decrease in expected earnings, highlighting a reduction in revenue due to global trade fluctuations caused by U.S. tariffs [1] - The tariffs have severely disrupted Sino-U.S. trade and affected global supply chains, leading to increased uncertainty in production and logistics, as well as operational interruptions [1]

Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The world is evolving towards a diversified structure, with the potential for the RMB to be less pressured if the USD enters a long-term weakening phase [4] - The dominance of the USD is seen as a product of historical circumstances, and its status is being challenged by geopolitical events and changing global dynamics [4][5] - The RMB's exchange rate mechanism should be more flexible and less influenced by external factors, allowing for adjustments based on domestic conditions [5] Group 2: Investment Trends in China - There is a long-term trend of increasing global asset allocation towards Chinese assets, driven by policy shifts that support economic growth and private enterprise [6][7] - The current high proportion of US assets in global allocations does not align with the emerging multipolar world, but international capital is beginning to adjust [7] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting indicated a balanced policy approach, which could stabilize market expectations and support long-term development [8] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting did not explicitly mention interest rate cuts, focusing instead on maintaining liquidity and managing local government debt [9] - The real estate market remains under pressure, and without strong policy intervention, downward pressure may increase [8][9] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Implications - The impact of US tariffs is diminishing, with recent agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU potentially leading to reduced trade costs and lower market uncertainty [15] - The evolving tariff agreements may serve as a model for other countries, suggesting a trend towards more flexible trade negotiations [15] Group 5: Investment in Gold - Caution is advised regarding excessive investment in gold as a safe-haven asset, as current valuations are high and could lead to risks [12][13] - Geopolitical tensions may support gold prices, but potential ceasefires could create downward pressure [13]

Core Viewpoint - The global trend is shifting towards a diversified asset allocation, with an increasing emphasis on Chinese assets as a long-term strategy for international investors [2][8]. Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The world is evolving towards a diversified structure, with the dominance of the US dollar being challenged due to geopolitical events and changing economic dynamics [6][7]. - The US dollar's long-term stability is uncertain, and its role as a global anchor currency is diminishing, suggesting a need for the Chinese yuan to be more flexible and not solely tied to the dollar [7][9]. Group 2: Chinese Asset Allocation - There is a significant policy shift in China towards supporting economic growth and private enterprises, which has led to a positive turning point in the stock market [9]. - The proportion of global asset allocation towards Chinese assets is expected to increase if China maintains growth and regulatory stability, marking a long-term trend [9][10]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting indicated a balanced policy approach, with a focus on stabilizing the capital market and addressing real estate pressures without immediate strong interventions [10][11]. - The meeting emphasized maintaining liquidity and promoting lower financing costs, while also tightening regulations on local government debt [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Caution is advised regarding excessive investment in gold, as its status as a safe-haven asset may be compromised if valuations remain high [14][15]. - The recent trade agreements between the US and its allies have reduced tariff concerns, which may stabilize market conditions and support long-term strategic planning for businesses [16][17].

上述一系列数据的发布，再次引发市场对美国就业市场疲软、增长正在放缓的担忧。美国金融市场也随 之发生波动。 就在7月底，美国商务部发布的预估数据显示，今年第二季度美国经济环比增长3%。这一数字不仅相比 第一季度环比萎缩0.5%的表现大幅反弹，且似乎证明美国经济仍然保持强劲增长。不过，从具体数据 来看，第二季度个人消费对经济增长的贡献比较有限，进口大幅下降才是拉动增长的重要数据，而二季 度进口下降与一季度进口大幅增长有关。 有媒体分析指出，在3%的数字背后，暗含美国个人消费不振、企业投资下滑、青年失业率上升、政府 拉动增长有限等隐忧。从长期来看，美国经济仍面临很大不确定性，而这与美国的关税政策有很大关 系。 美国对进口商品加征高额关税，导致美国国内商品物价上涨，通胀持续。数据显示，美国6月个人消费 支出价格指数（PCE）同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.3%。从物价方面来看，6月的家具、汽车、家电等价 格等都出现明显上涨，显示关税效应正传导至消费端。 毕振山 美国劳工部近日公布的数据显示，美国失业率环比出现上升。与此同时，美国7月制造业景气指数等数 据也低于预期。有分析人士认为，美国的关税政策变化不定对美国经济造成" ...