晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱震荡。美国关税的不确定性导致美国消费者信心数 据恶化，美联储主 ...

关税的不确定性导致消费者信心数据恶化，许多公司撤回了财测。包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的美联储 官员的讲话表明，联储会保持耐心，直到关税影响在经济数据中反映出来，然后再决定是否以及如何调 整货币政策。美联储周二开始举行为期两天的会议，市场普遍预计美联储周三会维持利率不变。 根据伦敦证交所集团（LSEG）编制的数据，市场目前预计在7月会议上降息至少25个基点的可能性接近 80%。 【黄金行情解析】 昨日印巴冲突升级引发避险情绪激增，黄金后半夜企稳攀升至3438附近。今晨中方宣布将访问瑞士的消 息释放，市场避险情绪迅速降温，黄金承压回落，反弹动能持续衰减。结合技术面，金价上探次高点未 果，此轮回调或成必然，不排除出现百美金级别的下行空间。今日上方关注3440一线；下方关注3335附 近。 摘要周三(5月7日)亚早时段，现货黄金走势偏弱运行，目前最新价格交投于3390.20美元/盎司，跌幅 1.20%。市场关注美联储周三公布的政策决定，预计联储将在会上维持利率不变，但这次会议可能是最 后一次结果如此明朗的会议。 周三(5月7日)亚早时段，现货黄金走势偏弱运行，目前最新价格交投于3390.20美元/盎司，跌幅1.20%。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in medium to long-term liquidity to the market [1] - The policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The PBOC will lower the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points, with the interest rate for first-time homebuyers on loans over five years decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [1] Group 2 - The PBOC will optimize two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging the quotas for securities fund insurance company swaps and stock repurchase loans to a total of 800 billion yuan [1] - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility will be established to support consumption and elderly care, along with an additional 300 billion yuan for agricultural and small business support [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to maintaining market stability and improving response plans to external risks [1] Group 3 - The PBOC has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy this year, focusing on counter-cyclical adjustments to support high-quality economic development [2] - Despite significant shocks, the domestic financial system remains stable, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding quickly after a drop on April 7 [2] - The 10-year government bond yield is around 1.65%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate has recovered to approximately 7.2 after a depreciation [2] Group 4 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce eight new policies to enhance financing for real estate and expand long-term investment by insurance funds [3] - These policies aim to support small and private enterprises, adjust regulatory rules, and provide targeted services to businesses affected by tariffs [3] - There will be a focus on increasing investment in technology innovation enterprises and developing high-quality technology insurance [3]

国务院新闻办公室5月7日上午举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽、中国证 券监督管理委员会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 潘功胜：人民银行将降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1百分点 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，人民银行将降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向 市场提供中长期流动性1万亿元。下调政策利率0.1个百分点，从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动LPR下行约0.1个百分 点。 胡华雄/制图 潘功胜：降低个人住房公积金贷款率0.25个百分点 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，降低个人住房公积金贷款率0.25个百分点，5年期以上 首套房利率从2.85%降低至2.6%，其他期限利率目标同步调整。 潘功胜：今年以来，货币信贷呈现出数量增加、价格下降、结构优化的特征 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，今年以来，人民银行实施好适度宽松的政策，强化逆 周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策，服务实体经济高质量发展，为推动经济回升持续向好，营 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发表报告表示，美联储官员近期对货币政策调整表现出高度谨慎，强调需等待 更多数据支持后再采取行动。总体而言，高通胀、关税政策的不确定性以及劳动力市场等潜在风险是当 前决策的核心考量。 高盛指出，自3月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议以来，多位官员与主席鲍威尔的立场一致，认为当前 政策"处于良好位置"，需等待更明确的经济数据后再决定是否调整利率。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表 示："宁愿缓慢行动但方向正确，也不愿快速行动却犯错。"她提到，如果6月前能获得"明确且有说服力 的数据"，FOMC可能会调整利率，但前提是"确定正确的行动方向"。 就目前而言，关税对经济的影响成为讨论焦点。高盛表示，美联储官员普遍意识到，关税的实际经济影 响比预期更大。虽然理论上关税可能只会导致价格一次性上涨，但也存在引发更持久通胀的风险。美联 储主席鲍威尔指出，关税很可能至少会导致通胀暂时上升，其通胀影响可能更持久，供应链中断等因素 可能使一次性通胀冲击持续更长时间。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也提到，关税变化对价格和经济活动 有多种直接和间接影响，间接和第二轮效应可能对通胀产生更持久的影响 。 美联储理事沃勒指出，在"高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction significantly impacts the platinum group metals market, affecting liquidity, exchange rates, investor expectations, and industrial demand, necessitating strategic responses from market participants [1][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction Overview - The balance sheet reduction, initiated in 2017, aims to address potential inflation pressures during economic recovery by directly withdrawing liquidity from the market [2]. Group 2: Spillover Effects on Platinum Group Metals Market - Liquidity changes due to the Federal Reserve's actions lead to reduced market funding, increasing investment caution and potentially causing price declines in platinum group metals [2][3]. - Exchange rate fluctuations, particularly a stronger dollar, raise costs for non-dollar investors, potentially suppressing demand for platinum group metals [2][4]. - Investor expectations and market sentiment are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, leading to preemptive adjustments in investment strategies and increased price volatility [3][4]. Group 3: Industrial Demand Impact - The balance sheet reduction may indirectly affect industrial demand for platinum group metals by slowing global economic growth, particularly impacting the automotive sector, which is a major consumer [4]. Group 4: Strategies for Responding to Balance Sheet Reduction - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios by reducing exposure to platinum group metals and increasing liquidity, while also exploring structural opportunities within the market [5]. - Companies in the platinum group metals supply chain should enhance risk management practices, optimize production processes, and diversify market channels to mitigate the impact of reduced liquidity [6]. - Government support through policies promoting recycling, innovation, and market regulation is essential for stabilizing the platinum group metals industry [7]. Group 5: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The platinum group metals market will continue to face uncertainties due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, but its fundamental importance in various sectors remains [8].

路透调查：马来西亚央行将在2024年5月8日维持隔夜政策利率在3.00%，其中30位经济学家中有24位持 此观点。马来西亚央行将在第四季度末将隔夜政策利率下调至2.75%，低于四月份调查时的3.00%。 ...

巴基斯坦央行将关键政策利率下调100个基点至11%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is currently in a state of short - term weakness due to the decline in expectations of central bank easing, but the market has not given up on trading for future easing. Long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are expected to perform better than medium - and short - term bonds, and far - month contracts are better than near - month contracts. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines [7]. - The current domestic economic data shows a comprehensive recovery, but the financial assets are weak because the market anticipates that the current high - growth data may be the peak in the future. There are also strong expectations of economic weakness under future tariff conflicts [24]. - Globally, the US economic data is showing signs of weakening, especially in the service sector. The US simple - minded tariff - adding policy will lead to a significant slowdown in the US economic growth and bring recession and deflationary pressures to non - US countries [24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - In the bond market, the short - term weakness is due to the disappointment of central bank easing expectations. The market still has expectations for future easing, and the phenomenon of "lengthening duration for defense" is emerging, with short - term bonds weakening and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds relatively strong [7]. - For equity assets, the bottom is relatively clear under the strong support of the "national team", but the upward elasticity requires both micro and macro drivers [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields fluctuated slightly, US bond yields declined for the second consecutive week, the US dollar index was flat, gold soared and then retreated, and the commodity and equity markets were mainly in a volatile state [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March declined significantly, while the cumulative growth rate from January to March increased. The main contributing sectors were non - ferrous metals, special equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment. The inventory form showed weak restocking willingness at the enterprise level [7][18]. - Overseas: US economic data weakened, with the service sector PMI significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. Although the manufacturing PMI rebounded, it was not enough to offset the decline in the service sector. The market has priced in the expected significant decline of US macroeconomic data to some extent [7]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - After the tax - payment period, the fund flow fluctuated and declined. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on the 25th, with 100 billion yuan due this month. The LPR quote remained unchanged, and the market's expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts continued to decline [7][32]. - The fund flow remained loose this week, falling below 1.7% on Friday. The disappointment of easing expectations dragged down the short - term bond market, especially since bond assets implied an expected interest rate cut of approximately 30bp [7][32]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 29) No relevant content provided. 3.6 Medium - Term Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P30 - 46) - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic situation as improving but facing increasing external shocks. Policy priorities are employment > short - term economic growth and high - quality development > extensive strong stimulus [7][19]. - Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the use of local bonds and special treasury bonds, and there is no mention of additional issuance. Monetary policy has changed from "seizing the opportunity" to "timely", reducing the short - term necessity and freedom of interest rate cuts but increasing the autonomy of future monetary easing [7][19]. 3.7 Long - Wave Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No relevant content provided.

截至2025年4月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.53，较上月47.51略有下降，市场情绪出现一定波动，整体风险 评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值较上月有所下降（本月38.93，上月45.01），显示出市场整体估值水平有所回落。从行业分布 来看，部分前期估值较高的行业如电子、计算机等，估值有所调整，而部分防御性板块或低估值板块的估 值相对稳定。 行业间估值分化有所减小。 目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、国防军工、计算机 的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、纺织服装、公共事业、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10% 分位数。 市场整体估值的调整，有超预期的关税冲击的影响，也反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利 预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下降（本月48.00，上月56.00）。分析师认为，政策层面持续发力，财政政策和 货币政策协同配合，为经济复苏提供了有力支持。财政方面，当月地方基建支出有所改善，土地市场的恢 复虽不均衡，但政府债发行提速，继续支撑政府性基金支出。预计二季度财政仍将保持积极。但全球经济 复苏的 ...