特朗普（资料图） 特朗普口中的"欺诈"，指向的是美联储总部建筑翻新项目。本月2日，特朗普政府翻出旧账，以"存在政 治立场偏差""在国会作虚假陈述"为由，要求国会调查鲍威尔，还说他在接受质询时隐瞒事实、态度消 极，该"免职追责"。据《华尔街日报》报道，这个翻新项目2017年获批，2022年启动最新工程，到2023 年预算从19亿美元涨到了近25亿美元。不过路透社说，目前没证据显示鲍威尔涉嫌欺诈，美联储也否认 了豪华装修的指控。 而且美国联邦最高法院5月22日有过相关裁决，美联储官员不能因为政策分歧被解雇，只有渎职或玩忽 职守等情况才能被解职。这已经不是特朗普第一次因为鲍威尔引发市场动荡了。几个月来，他一直要求 美联储降息，说美国政府为债务支付的利息太高。4月21日，他再度施压降息，当天美国就遭遇了股汇 债"三杀"。第二天他改口说"无意"解除鲍威尔职务，市场情绪才稍微缓和。特朗普觉得当前4.3%左右的 基准利率太高，应该降到3%以下。 特朗普（资料图） 可鲍威尔多次表示，货币政策调整还得观望，要先判断关税对通胀和经济走势的影响。美国政府15日公 布，6月消费者价格指数同比涨幅是2月以来最大的。《纽约时报》认为，这 ...

·二十国集团举行今年第三次G20财长和央行行长会议 ·IMF：各国应增强韧性，促进中期增长 ·美联储褐皮书显示经济不确定性仍然很高 ·IMF第一副总裁戈皮纳特表示，在下行风险继续成为主导，不确定性仍然高企的背景下，各国政策制 定者应将重点放在解决贸易紧张局势和实施宏观经济政策上，以解决潜在的国内失衡问题。这包括恢复 财政空间，确保债务处于可持续水平。为了维持价格和金融稳定，货币政策必须根据各国的具体情况仔 细调整，并进行明确和一致的沟通。央行的独立性必须得到保护。 ·美联储发布的经济状况"褐皮书"显示，从5月下旬到7月初，经济活动略有增加。不确定性仍然很高， 导致企业持续保持谨慎。旅游业活动涨跌互现，制造业活动小幅下降，非金融服务业活动平均而言几乎 没有变化，但各地区之间存在差异。经济前景呈中性至略微悲观态势。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔回应白宫预算主管有关美联储大楼翻新事宜时表示，美联储委员会认为透明度至关 重要；自2017年以来审查工作持续进行，项目监察长也在审查大楼翻新项目。与国家资金规划委员会的 合作具有建设性和稳健性，而这是由美联储自愿推动的。国家发展委员会（NCPC）批准以来的项目变 更仅是缩减和简化建设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell responded to criticisms from the White House regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, denying allegations of extravagance and asserting that the project has been under strict supervision since its approval in 2017 [1][4][5]. Group 1: Renovation Project Details - The renovation project was approved in 2017 and has been subject to strict oversight, with Powell emphasizing the necessity of significant structural repairs and updates due to the age of the buildings, which date back to the 1930s [4][10]. - Powell refuted claims of luxury features in the renovation, stating that there are no plans for a VIP restaurant or special elevators [4][10]. - The budget for the renovation has increased from an initial estimate of $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [10]. Group 2: Political Context - The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized the renovation, suggesting it is excessively lavish and using it as a potential justification for Powell's removal [5][10]. - Trump expressed that spending $2.5 billion on renovations is shameful and indicated that it could be a reason for Powell's dismissal, although he later stated that it is unlikely to happen unless fraud is proven [10][12]. - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell if there are valid reasons [10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Trump has been dissatisfied with the Fed's interest rate policies, advocating for a reduction in the current rate of approximately 4.3% to below 3% [12][13]. - Powell has maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, indicating the need to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and future economic trends [12][13]. - The ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and Powell have raised concerns about the Fed's independence in decision-making [13].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock, currency, and bond markets experienced significant declines due to President Trump's consideration of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump later stated he does not intend to do so [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's initial comments about potentially dismissing Powell, major U.S. stock indices fell, the dollar index dropped, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [5]. - After Trump denied the reports and stated that he does not plan to take action against Powell, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the major stock indices closed higher, although the dollar index slightly decreased [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Several leaders in the U.S. banking sector publicly emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve for the stability of the U.S. economy and financial system [6]. - Trump's discussions about Powell's potential dismissal included references to past issues, such as the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which has been criticized for alleged excessive spending [8][9]. Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017 and reappointed under President Biden, is expected to complete his term, which ends on May 15 of the following year [15]. - Trump has criticized the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, suggesting it should be lowered, while Powell has indicated that the Fed will take a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [15][16].

Group 1 - Citibank maintains its expectation for a possible interest rate cut in September following the analysis of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes reveal a divergence of opinions among committee members, with some supporting a rate cut as early as July, while others prefer no cuts this year, but a majority believe a cut later in 2023 is appropriate [1] - Current unemployment rate at 4.1% makes a July rate cut "extremely unlikely," with a slightly hawkish tone noted in the minutes regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, but analysts from JPMorgan believe the impact on financial markets will be limited due to prior adjustments by bond index providers [2] - Despite a challenging fiscal outlook, Citibank's rate strategists indicate that the downgrade is unlikely to significantly affect foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2] - Federal Reserve officials are reassessing the monetary policy framework in light of recent inflation performance and potential supply shocks, which may lead to adjustments in employment and inflation target strategies [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that some participants view the risks in the labor market as a primary concern, overshadowing inflation risks [1] - There are signs of weakening in actual economic activity and the labor market, leading to concerns about future economic conditions, especially if restrictive policies continue [1] - Participants agree that despite a decrease in uncertainty regarding inflation and economic outlook, caution is necessary when adjusting monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike cycle is only on a "short pause" and will resume after a period of observation, according to board member Hajime Takata [1][2] - Takata maintains a hawkish stance despite threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to increase tariffs on Japanese goods, which casts a shadow over economic prospects [1] - The Japanese inflation rate remains the highest among the G7 countries, with a key cost-of-living indicator reaching a two-year high in May [1] Group 2 - Takata emphasizes that the sustainability of corporate behavior is crucial for further adjustments in monetary policy, as Japan's economy approaches its price stability target [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated that the core inflation rate is still below the 2% target and that he wants to see a clear upward trend in inflation before resuming rate hikes [2] - Over 90% of observers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in the upcoming policy decision on July 31 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should gradually and cautiously adjust its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment is necessary to respond to changing economic conditions [1] - A careful approach is emphasized to avoid potential market disruptions [1]

近期全球外汇市场呈现显著变化，美元指数持续走弱至多年低位。日本央行货币政策立场的微妙转变，叠加美日贸易关系的复杂演进，正在重塑两国货币的 相对价值。市场参与者密切关注这一趋势的发展轨迹，美元兑日元汇率面临多重压力因素的交织影响。 日本央行政策预期推动日元走强 美日贸易关系的复杂性为汇率走势增添了变数。贸易政策的不确定性对两国经济前景产生了不同程度的影响。日本作为出口导向型经济体，对贸易环境变化 较为敏感，这种敏感性在汇率市场得到了充分体现。 美国关税政策的潜在调整成为影响汇率预期的关键因素。市场担忧新的贸易壁垒可能对日本出口企业造成冲击，进而影响日本经济增长前景。这种担忧在一 定程度上限制了日元的上涨空间，但同时也为美元带来了下行压力。 贸易谈判的进展情况直接影响着市场情绪。谈判过程中的任何积极或消极信号都会在外汇市场引发即时反应。投资者对谈判结果的不同预期，导致美元兑日 元汇率出现较大幅度的波动。 来源：金融界 日本通胀数据持续超出央行目标水平，为货币政策调整提供了基础条件。东京地区消费者价格指数虽有所回落，但仍维持在3.1%的相对高位，明显高于日 本央行设定的2%通胀目标。核心通胀指标的韧性表现，增强了市 ...

Group 1 - The Israel-Iran conflict has been declared to be at a standstill, with both parties agreeing to cease hostilities under the mediation of President Trump [1][3] - The conflict lasted for 12 days, with a level of intensity that exceeded expectations, leading to a realization that a prolonged war was unlikely [3][6] - The U.S. involvement is seen as a strategic move to facilitate a resolution, allowing both Israel and Iran to save face while benefiting the U.S. the most [6] Group 2 - Iran's nuclear capabilities are a significant bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S., and Israel's actions have been aimed at undermining any potential agreements [5] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut is linked to the current economic situation and may be a preparatory move for upcoming trade tensions with China [8][10] - The ongoing trade war with China is complicated by the U.S.'s internal economic challenges, and the recent geopolitical events may influence the U.S. strategy moving forward [10]