12月19日，黄金作为全球投资者眼中的避险之王，在周四（12月18日）再度上演了一出惊心动魄的过山 车行情，晚间九点半公布的11月份美国核心消费者物价指数（CPI）跌至2021年初以来的最低水平，总 体CPI和核心CPI均出现下滑，黄金先小幅度拉升至4343后回落至4308，紧接着金价一度飙升至4374的 近两个月高点，逼近历史高点4381美元/盎司，却又在短时间内回吐涨幅，收盘时勉强守住阵地，收报 4332美元/盎司，整体表现为反复洗盘格局，日线最终收出一根带有长上下影线的阴线。 基本消息面： 11月CPI同比2.7%低于预期3.1%，强化3月再降息25bp预期，10年期美债收益率降至4.12%，降低黄金持 有成本；但数据可能因政府停摆存在"延续法"偏差，市场对实际通胀与政策节奏存疑，多头获利了结引 发回落。 欧洲央行维持利率不变，符合市场预期，欧洲央行官员表示，降息周期很可能已经结束；英国央行将基 准利率从4.00%下调至3.75%，符合市场预期，该行行长贝利称，降息步伐将放缓；日本央行决议加息 25bp，也符合市场预期，认为货币环境依然宽松。 地缘政治方面：美国周四对29艘油轮及其管理公司实施制裁，矛头 ...

Group 1: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks may significantly increase gold purchases in November, with gold prices potentially rising to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Policy News - China's fiscal revenue from January to October reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [4] - In October, China's foreign exchange settlement by banks was $214.2 billion, with a surplus of $17.7 billion, indicating a net inflow of cross-border funds [4] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing, with second-hand home transactions dominating, showing a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October [4] Group 3: Employment and Inflation - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment, while inflation risks may have slightly decreased [5] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated mixed signals in the labor market, suggesting a potential slowdown [5] Group 4: International Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024, primarily due to weak exports and residential investment [6] - The European Commission forecasts a faster-than-expected economic expansion in the Eurozone, with GDP growth projected at 1.3% for the year [6] - India's trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, influenced by increased gold imports and decreased exports to the U.S. [6] Group 5: Commodity and Industry News - Indonesia plans to implement an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting next year [6] - Mysteel reported a decrease in iron ore arrivals in China, with total arrivals at 2,369.9 million tons, down 399.4 million tons week-on-week [7] - The coal market is experiencing a decline in operational rates, with a reported drop in production and inventory levels [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 0.65%, closing at 97.808, as stock market strength reduced liquidity demand for the dollar [3] - Gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3397.09 per ounce, up 1.39% [3][7] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.48%, closing at $65.68 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.31%, closing at $68.38 per barrel [3][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, closing at 24994.14 points, with a peak of 25010.90 points, the highest since February 2022 [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.72%, reaching a new high for the year, with a total trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [6] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology and financial stocks drove the index higher, while sectors like wind power, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant gains [5] - In the A-share market, infrastructure, cement, and hydropower sectors experienced a collective surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [6]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement worth 190 billion RMB / 157 billion Brazilian Reais, valid for five years with the option to extend [1] - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its workforce by 10% over the next few years, offering voluntary resignation and deferred retirement options to eligible employees [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework in response to significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks post-pandemic [1] - The European Central Bank's regulatory body has requested certain Eurozone banks to assess scenarios of pressure on dollar demand, reflecting concerns over the uncertainty of dollar supply under the Trump administration [2] Market Observations - Barclays Bank has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 0.5% for this year and 1.6% for 2026, up from previous estimates of -0.3% and 1.5% respectively, while also raising Eurozone growth expectations to zero growth from a prior forecast of a 0.2% contraction [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may keep policy rates unchanged until December before easing further in 2026 [4] - Goldman Sachs has increased its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2025 from 0.7% to 1.1%, citing government budget measures and potential fiscal stimulus as supportive factors [4]