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逆周期调节
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利好!重要数据公布,积极信号显现!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-09 04:07
Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth [1][4] - The CPI's month-on-month increase was higher than seasonal levels by 0.1 percentage points, driven mainly by rising service and industrial goods prices [2] Group 2: Price Influences and Sector Performance - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant impacts from travel-related costs during the summer [2] - Industrial goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, influenced by a 1.6% rise in energy prices, which contributed about 0.12 percentage points to the CPI [2] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry saw significant year-on-year increases of 37.1% and 27.3%, respectively, impacting the CPI positively [4] Group 3: PPI Trends and Market Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but this decline was the smallest since March, indicating a narrowing of the decline [6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline remained at 3.6%, with the reduction in prices attributed to seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties affecting several industries [7][8] - Domestic market competition has improved, leading to a reduction in the PPI's downward pressure, particularly in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [8]
证监会:IPO不会大规模扩容
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-09 00:40
有投行人士对此表示,放眼全球交易所,纳斯达克允许未盈利 AI 企业直接上市,港交所推出"特专科 技"章节,而A股上述一系列政策的落地,保障了科创板、创业板包容性增强的节奏和效果,也对"全球 主要市场主动适应科技发展趋势,加大制度机制创新"给出了中国解法。 (文章来源:国际金融报) 2025年以来,截至8月7日,证监会新增披露的全国辅导备案企业约243家, 6月、7月两个月合计新增辅 导备案企业约112家,远高于前五个月平均每月20家-30家的水平,显示出在政策暖风的背景下,企业上 市筹备热情出现明显升温。 不过,真正走到发审会门前的只有 43 家,过会率95.35%;新增IPO上市62家,募资总额超过634亿元。 不难看出,IPO企业供给端温和增长,但所谓"扩容"并未发生,监管层把节奏牢牢卡在了"滴灌"而非"漫 灌"。 除了首发批文、上市的节奏控制,过去大半年,证监会悄悄把"逆周期调节"贯彻在多个方面。 一方面,证监会对产能过剩领域实施"红灯暂停",对硬科技、绿色低碳实行"绿色通道",但同步提高信 息披露质量。另一方面,2025 年,证监会继续对 IPO 在审企业实施 25% 左右的现场检查比例,延续 202 ...
证监会:IPO不会大规模扩容
IPO日报· 2025-08-09 00:32
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes that there will not be a large-scale expansion of IPOs despite the increased inclusivity of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, maintaining strict control over the listing process [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - The CSRC has implemented a "red light pause" for industries with overcapacity while providing a "green channel" for hard technology and green low-carbon sectors, alongside improving information disclosure quality [4]. - In 2025, the CSRC will continue to enforce a 25% on-site inspection ratio for IPO applications, maintaining the regulatory intensity from 2024 to ensure IPO quality and prevent "sick reporting" issues [4]. - The CSRC revised the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures" in May 2023, promoting mergers and acquisitions towards industrial integration and efficiency improvement, encouraging technology companies to strengthen their supply chains rather than focusing solely on IPOs [4]. Group 2: Market Response - Following the introduction of supportive policies, approximately 243 companies have initiated IPO counseling filings since 2025, with a significant increase in filings in June and July compared to earlier months [3]. - As of August 7, 2025, 62 new IPOs have been approved, raising over 634 billion yuan, indicating a moderate growth in IPO supply without a significant expansion [3]. Group 3: Global Context - The recent policies in China's capital markets align with global trends, where exchanges like NASDAQ allow unprofitable AI companies to list directly, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has introduced specialized technology chapters [5].
证监会:将继续严把发行上市入口关 不会出现大规模扩容的情况
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-08 10:01
人民财讯8月8日电,针对包容性增强会否造成IPO大规模扩容的担忧,记者获悉,证监会将继续严把发 行上市入口关,做好逆周期调节,不会出现大规模扩容的情况。当前,全球主要市场都在主动适应科技 发展趋势,加大制度机制创新,在持续吸纳优质企业、改进监管服务同时也反过来促进了二级市场的活 跃和走强。 编辑 刘佳妮 ...
LPR报价下行 金融支持实体经济力度加大
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 08:01
Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) reflects the implementation of a more proactive monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy and promoting high-quality economic development [1][2][3]. Group 1: LPR Reduction Details - On May 20, the 1-year LPR was set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 0.1 percentage points from previous values [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that this reduction is part of a broader strategy to enhance macroeconomic control and implement a suite of monetary policy measures [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on the Economy - The LPR decrease is expected to lower financing costs for businesses and reduce the financial burden on residents, thereby enhancing consumer spending and stabilizing the real estate market [3][4]. - For a personal mortgage of 1 million yuan over 30 years, the monthly payment will decrease by 54 yuan, leading to a total repayment reduction of 19,000 yuan [3]. Group 3: Broader Financial Policy Implications - The reduction in LPR is part of a comprehensive effort to lower overall financing costs in society, which includes adjustments to various loan rates such as those for agricultural and small business loans [2][4]. - The current interest rate levels are at historical lows, and the PBOC aims to further reduce bank funding costs to create more room for future rate cuts [4][5]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Experts note that while interest rates are low, other factors such as non-interest costs (e.g., collateral fees, service charges) also significantly impact overall financing costs [5][6]. - The PBOC has initiated measures to enhance transparency in loan costs through a "loan clarity document," which outlines all financing expenses for businesses [5][6].
如何理解LPR和大型商业银行存款挂牌利率同步下降
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 08:01
Core Viewpoint - The recent decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates by major commercial banks is aimed at enhancing financial support for the real economy, promoting economic recovery, and optimizing asset allocation for residents [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Financing Costs - The LPR for 1-year and over 5-year loans has decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which is expected to lower financing costs and stimulate credit demand [1]. - The reduction in deposit rates by commercial banks, including a 0.05 percentage point drop in demand deposits and a 0.15 to 0.25 percentage point drop in time deposits, is a strategic move to lower overall financing costs in the economy [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Services and Risk Management - The decline in deposit rates is seen as a necessary step to maintain a reasonable net interest margin for banks, which is crucial for their ability to serve the real economy and manage financial risks effectively [2]. - The banking sector's net interest margin has been decreasing, and the adjustment in deposit rates is intended to enhance the sustainability of financial services provided to the real economy [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - The simultaneous decrease in LPR and deposit rates indicates an improvement in the market-oriented pricing mechanism for deposits, allowing for differentiated and market-based pricing strategies [3]. - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to encourage residents to optimize their asset allocation, potentially leading to increased investments in the stock and real estate markets, as returns from these investments may surpass those from bank deposits [4].
本币市场:上半年流动性管理更趋精细化
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 08:00
Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The central bank has intensified counter-cyclical adjustments and implemented a package of financial support measures, resulting in significant effects on supporting the real economy [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and closely monitor the transmission and actual effects of previously implemented policies [1][2] Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - In the first half of the year, the interbank RMB market saw a decrease in trading volume and balance, with a total transaction volume of 101.5 trillion yuan, down 12% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-on-year [1] - The average weighted rates for overnight repo rates (DR001) and overnight pledged repo rates (R001) increased by 5 basis points to 1.62% and 1.73%, respectively [3] Bond Market Performance - A total of 27.1 trillion yuan in bonds were issued in the first half of the year, representing a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 24.1% increase year-on-year, with net financing reaching 10.5 trillion yuan, up 33.3% quarter-on-quarter and 99% year-on-year [4] - The issuance of government bonds and local government bonds reached historical highs, with significant support for infrastructure investment [4] Interest Rate Swaps and Trading Activity - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with the average prices for 6-month, 1-year, and 5-year Shibor3M swaps increasing by 6, 15, and 8 basis points, respectively [6] - The total nominal principal for RMB interest rate swaps reached 20.9 trillion yuan, with a daily average transaction volume of 1.745 trillion yuan, reflecting a 28.9% increase [6]
第三家股份行AIC获批筹建:为企业提供全方位多层次融资支持
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 08:00
第三家股份制银行金融资产投资有限公司(以下简称"AIC")获批筹建。 7月3日,招商银行发布公告称,该行已收到国家金融监督管理总局的批复,获准筹建招银金融资产 投资有限公司。该公司注册资本为人民币150亿元,为招商银行全资子公司。 "股份制银行新设AIC的核心落脚点在于加大对科技企业的股权投资支持力度。"中国邮政储蓄银行 研究员娄飞鹏在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示,这将有助于股份制银行专业化开展市场化债转股及 股权投资试点业务,为企业提供全方位、多层次的融资支持,进一步提升银行综合化经营能力,全面推 动高质量发展。 已有三家股份制银行获批筹建AIC 此前,兴业银行、中信银行、招商银行3家股份制银行发布公告称,分别拟出资100亿元、150亿 元、100亿元设立AIC,提升服务实体经济能力。 随后,上述3家股份制银行相继收到监管部门批复。 5月7日,国家金融监督管理总局批复,同意兴业银行筹建兴银金融资产投资有限公司(名称暂 定)。据兴业银行披露,该公司注册资本为人民币100亿元,为该行全资子公司。 6月3日,中信银行发布公告称,该行收到国家金融监督管理总局批复,同意中信银行筹建信银金融 资产投资有限公司(名称暂 ...
央行:实施好适度宽松的货币政策 灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-08 07:24
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reports a positive economic outlook for Q1 2025, with GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, supported by coordinated macro policies and a moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] Monetary Policy and Economic Performance - The PBOC emphasizes the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policy, with social financing and broad money supply (M2) growing by 8.4% and 7.0% year-on-year respectively as of March [1] - The total balance of RMB loans reached 265.4 trillion yuan, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 50 and 60 basis points year-on-year [1] - The loan growth for specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises increased by 15.1%, while inclusive small and micro loans rose by 12.2%, both outpacing overall loan growth [1] External Economic Environment - The report highlights increasing external shocks, insufficient global economic growth momentum, rising trade protectionism, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, indicating the need for a more solid foundation for China's economic recovery [2] - Despite these challenges, China's large market size, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources are seen as advantages that support long-term economic growth [2] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to maintain a stable yet progressive approach, fully implementing new development concepts and deepening financial reforms while promoting high-quality financial development [2][3] - The focus will be on balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while ensuring the health of the banking system, and enhancing macroeconomic policy coordination [2] - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing growth with economic growth and price level expectations [3]
中国人民银行将开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-08 07:22
(责任编辑:田云绯) 当日,中国人民银行还更新了5月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况,其中5月买断式逆回购净回笼 2000亿元。 公开市场买断式逆回购是中国人民银行于2024年10月推出的工具,可增强1年以内的流动性跨期调 节能力,有助于提升流动性管理的精细化水平。 新华社北京6月5日电(记者任军、吴雨)中国人民银行5日发布公告称,为保持银行体系流动性充 裕,6月6日,中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操 作,期限为3个月(91天)。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说,此次操作有助于银行体系流动性持续保持充裕状态,控制资金面 波动,稳定市场预期。现阶段加大中期流动性投放,释放出数量型政策工具持续加力的政策信号,有助 于强化逆周期调节。 ...