Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to reach or slightly fall below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% this year, as energy price disturbances diminish and wage growth in major economies slows down [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The average inflation rate in the Eurozone has been slightly above the 2% policy target over the past two years [1] - There is potential for further decline in overall inflation levels this year due to base effects [1] - Wage growth in major member countries like France and Italy is showing signs of slowing, which may reduce inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Core Inflation and ECB Policy - The current core inflation rate stands at 2.3%, which may gradually align with the 2% target [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated that monetary policy decisions will "neutralize" short-term fluctuations caused by base effects, avoiding overreaction to temporary data changes [1] - Despite the improving inflation outlook, the ECB may choose to maintain current interest rates in the short term [1]

欧洲央行去年12月决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变，这是其自去年7月以来连续第四次维持利率 不变。市场人士认为，当前地缘政治紧张、能源价格波动以及全球贸易环境变化等多重不确定因素交 织，欧洲经济和通胀前景仍面临较大不确定性。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王雪】 新华社布鲁塞尔1月7日电（记者康逸）欧盟统计局7日公布的初步统计数据显示，欧元区去年12月 通胀率按年率计算为2.0%，低于11月的2.1%，达到欧洲央行设定的目标水平。 数据显示，欧元区去年12月食品和烟酒价格上涨2.6%，服务价格上涨3.4%，非能源类工业产品价 格上涨0.4%，能源价格下降1.9%。当月，剔除能源、食品和烟酒价格的核心通胀率为2.3%。 从国别来看，欧元区主要经济体德国、法国、意大利和西班牙去年12月通胀率分别为2.0%、 0.7%、1.2%和3.0%。 分析人士指出，欧洲央行认为通胀处于可控状态，但由于全球经济仍存在不确定性，对于未来货币 政策走向仍持谨慎态度。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，最新数据显示，欧元区通胀率已回落至欧洲央行设定的目标区间，这印证了政策制 定者的观点——只要经济前景不出现显著变化，基准利率就可以维持当前水平。 在2025年最后一次货币政策会议上，欧洲央行预计，今年通胀率仅会小幅低于目标水平，较此前预测有 所上调，反映出服务业成本的放缓速度低于预期。 此前公布的多项数据显示，欧元区各成员国物价涨幅均出现回落，但回落节奏存在差异。其中，西班牙 通胀率降至3%，法国放缓至0.7%，德国则回落至2%的目标水平。 交易员则加大了对货币宽松政策的押注，市场定价显示，今年9月前降息幅度或达5个基点，这相当于出 现25个基点降息的概率为20%。受此影响，欧元兑美元汇率扭转早盘跌势，在1.169附近持平。 欧元区高级经济学家David Powell表示："欧元区12月通胀放缓对欧洲央行而言是利好消息，但这一变化 或许与货币政策关联不大——本次通胀下行由能源成本走低驱动，航空票价等波动性商品价格的回落或 许也是原因之一。" 目前，欧洲央行多数政策制定者认同通胀已处于可控范围，但他们对下一步政策走向仍持谨慎态度，强 调全球经济尚存的不确定性风险。 Nordea分析师Ande ...

Core Insights - Australia's overall consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate for November 2025 is 3.4%, down from 3.8% in October and below the market expectation of 3.8% [1] - This marks the first decline in the CPI after four consecutive months of increases [1] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slightly decreased from 3.3% to 3.2% [1] Inflation Drivers - The primary drivers of the November inflation rate increase were a 5.2% rise in housing prices, followed by a 3.3% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, and a 2.7% rise in transportation prices [1] - The year-on-year goods inflation rate decreased from 3.8% in October to 3.3%, while the services inflation rate fell from 3.9% to 3.6% [1] Price Changes by Category - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3.3% year-on-year in November - Alcohol and tobacco prices rose by 4.2% - Clothing and footwear prices saw a 4.6% increase - Housing prices increased by 5.2% - Furniture, household equipment, and services prices rose by 1.4% - Health prices increased by 3.6% - Transportation prices rose by 2.7% - Communication prices increased by 1.3% - Recreation and culture prices rose by 2.3% - Education prices saw a significant increase of 5.4% - Insurance and financial services prices rose by 2.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate for November 2025 is 3.4%, a decrease from 3.8% in October and below the market expectation of 3.8% [1] Inflation Metrics - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slightly decreased from 3.3% in the previous month to 3.2% [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target range is set at 2-3% [1] Key Drivers of Inflation - The primary drivers of the November inflation rate increase include: - Housing prices rose by 5.2% - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3.3% - Transportation prices went up by 2.7% [1] Specific Price Changes - Year-on-year price changes for November include: - Food and non-alcoholic beverages: 3.3% - Alcohol and tobacco: 4.2% - Clothing and footwear: 4.6% - Housing: 5.2% - Furniture, household equipment, and services: 1.4% - Health: 3.6% - Transportation: 2.7% - Communication: 1.3% - Recreation and culture: 2.3% - Education: 5.4% - Insurance and financial services: 2.5% [1]

澳大利亚标准普尔/澳大利亚证券交易所200指数在通胀数据公布后涨幅扩大，最新上涨0.6%。 澳洲国 内通胀率数据低于预期，数据公布后澳元兑美元下跌0.25%报0.6721美元。 澳大利亚11月月度消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.4%（调查预期为上涨3.7%）；澳大利亚11月月度 截尾均值消费者物价指数（CPI）环比上涨0.3%（调查预期为上涨0.25%）。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 澳大利亚标准普尔/澳大利亚证券交易所200指数在通胀数据公布后涨幅扩大，最新上涨0.6%。 澳洲国 内通胀率数据低于预期，数据公布后澳元兑美元下跌0.25%报0.6721美元。 澳大利亚11月月度消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.4%（调查预期为上涨3.7%）；澳大利亚11月月度 截尾均值消费者物价指数（CPI）环比上涨0.3%（调查预期为上涨0.25%）。 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in Germany for December 2025 is reported at 1.8%, the lowest level in over a year [1] - The average inflation rate for Germany in 2025 is expected to be 2.2%, with service prices being the main driver of inflation [1] - Service prices increased by 3.5% year-on-year in December 2025, particularly in areas such as car insurance, vacation packages, and dining services [1] Group 2 - Energy prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year in December 2025, while food prices increased by 0.8% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, is estimated to be 2.4% for December 2025 [1] - Forecasts from the Ifo Institute suggest that inflation in Germany may be around 2.2% in 2026 and approximately 2.3% in 2027 [1] Group 3 - The European Central Bank aims to maintain an inflation rate of 2% [2] - As of December 2025, Germany's inflation rate aligns with the European standard at 2.0% [2] - The European Central Bank has lowered the benchmark interest rate eight times from mid-2024 to mid-2025, currently standing at 2.0% [2]

市场预期，欧洲央行将在2026年上半年维持主要利率不变，首次降息时点或推迟至年中之后。 （文章来源：新华财经） 其中，服务业通胀的粘性被视为关键制约因素。剔除能源与食品的核心服务价格涨幅仍具韧性，反映劳 动力成本与内生性价格压力尚未完全消退。这一结构性特征限制了欧央行快速转向宽松的空间。 欧洲央行执行委员会委员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔（Isabel Schnabel）表示，除非出现重大外部冲击，否则借 贷成本"可能在较长时间内保持稳定"。此番表态重申了管委会当前"观望为主、数据依赖"的决策基调。 新华财经北京1月6日电德国联邦统计局最新数据显示，2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.0%，显著低于11月2.6%的涨幅，亦低于市场普遍预期的2.2%。这一超预期放缓使德国通胀率自2025 年6月以来再度回到欧洲央行设定的2%目标水平。 此前，法国与西班牙已相继公布12月初步通胀数据，均显示物价压力持续缓和。三国作为欧元区最大经 济体，其同步降温强化了市场对整体通胀趋稳的判断。经济学家普遍预计，将于本周公布的欧元区12月 CPI同比涨幅将回落至2%的目标位。 尽管如此，分析人士指出，单一月份的数据尚不足以 ...

波黑塞通社1月1日报道。波黑央行预测，2026年第一季度的总体通胀率为3.8%，核心通胀率为3.5%， 该预测基于当前劳动力市场关于2026年最低工资的信息。 波黑央行预计，2025年四季度的实际国内生产总值年增长率为2.1%，同期总体通胀率预估为4.2%，核 心通胀率为4.3%。 波黑央行表示，2025年四季度GDP增长率主要基于服务业活动，而生产领域的贡献有限。总体通胀率较 9月份的快速预测值轻微上调0.3个百分点，主要原因是食品价格及公用事业费用（尤其是电价）的强劲 上涨。 波黑央行强调，目前预计短期通胀将因基数效应而逐步放缓。对短期经济活动和通胀的预测，仍然与 2025年秋季中期宏观经济预测周期中的预期相符。（驻波黑使馆经商处） ...

Core Insights - The HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates a significant slowdown in economic activity in India as of December 2025, with the composite PMI final value revised down to 57.8 from an initial 58.9, marking the lowest level since 2025 [1] - Both manufacturing and services sectors are experiencing a simultaneous slowdown, contributing to the overall reduction in momentum [1] - New orders have seen their slowest growth in 25 months, with weakened growth dynamics in both goods producers and service providers [1] Economic Activity - The composite employment creation has stagnated, with weak hiring activity in manufacturing and a slight decrease in service sector employment [1] - Input costs and output charges have continued to rise modestly, with inflation rates remaining below long-term averages [1][2] Business Confidence - Despite maintaining an optimistic outlook for future business activities, the confidence index has dropped to a 41-month low, indicating a cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The service sector PMI final value was revised down to 58.0 from an initial 59.1, below market expectations of 59.3 and the November final value of 59.8, representing the weakest expansion since January 2025 [1] Sector Performance - New business and output growth in the service sector have slowed to an 11-month low, although new export orders have increased at a significant pace, outpacing November's growth [1] - Employment in the service sector has seen its first decline since May 2025, albeit marginal, with most companies reporting no change in employee numbers since November [1][2] Price Pressure - Service sector input cost inflation has accelerated compared to November but remains within the most moderate range seen in over five years, with sales prices experiencing only a slight increase, marking one of the weakest rises in nearly two years [2] - Business confidence has weakened to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, reflecting the challenges faced by the economy [2]