Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The median forecast from the Federal Reserve indicates a further rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025 [1] - There is a divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with varying views on the extent and timing of potential reductions [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points is in line with market expectations [1] - The median prediction suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025, with differing opinions among officials on the number and magnitude of future cuts [1] Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve maintained its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts for the year, projecting a median inflation rate of 3% and an unemployment rate of 4.5% [1] - Economic growth expectations have been revised upward from 1.4% to 1.6% for the year [1] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the DXY dollar index experienced a sharp decline, while non-USD currencies rose collectively [1] - Spot gold prices surged, surpassing $3700 per ounce, and U.S. stock markets initially rose before retreating, indicating increased bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada announced a 25 basis point reduction in the policy interest rate to 2.50% on September 17, 2023, in response to rising unemployment and inflation nearing 2% [1][2] - The Canadian economy showed signs of slowing growth, with a projected 1.5% decline in real GDP for Q2, significantly impacted by tariffs and trade uncertainties [2] - The unemployment rate increased to 7.1% in August, with job losses concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, reflecting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [2][3] Group 2 - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate was reported at 1.9%, with core inflation indicators around 3%, indicating a potential easing of price pressures due to the recent removal of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports [3] - The Bank of Canada aims to balance risks in a weakening economy with low inflationary pressures, focusing on maintaining public confidence in price stability while supporting economic growth [3]

当地时间9月17日，欧盟统计局发布的第二次估值数据显示，欧元区8月通胀率按年率计算为2.0%，略 低于此前公布的初步统计数据2.1%，与7月持平。数据还显示，欧盟整体8月通胀率按年率计算为 2.4%，同样与7月持平。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

当地时间17日，据英国国家统计局数据，英国8月通胀率为3.8%，和7月通胀率相比保持不变。其中食 品价格的同比涨幅从4.9%提高至5.1%，连续第5个月上涨。 英国央行预计，商品价格将持续上涨，通胀率或在9月达到4%。（总台记者 杨兢兢） ...

近期英镑/美元走势呈现震荡状态。连续两天上涨后，汇率在盘中出现回落，反映市场在消化前期涨幅 的同时，也在等待新的经济数据和政策信号。分析人士指出，汇率短期波动主要受英国和美国经济数 据，以及央行政策预期影响。 9月17日周三，亚市盘中，英镑/美元在连续两天上涨后出现回落，目前交投于1.3640附近。市场在等待 英国消费者价格指数（CPI）和零售价格指数（RPI）公布之际，英镑出现小幅调整，同时投资者也关 注当天晚些时候美联储（Fed）的政策决定。 英国8月份CPI预计显示，总体通胀率同比从3.8%升至3.9%，月度通胀率则预计从0.1%升至0.3%。如果 通胀压力有所加速，将引发市场对英国央行（BoE）未来货币政策路径的关注。分析人士认为，英国央 行可能在下一次利率决策中维持在4%的水平。 美国方面，经济数据显示消费者支出依然强劲。8月份零售销售环比增长0.6%，好于市场预期的0.2%， 其中零售销售控制组和汽车零售销售均增长0.7%，超过预期的0.4%。这一数据表明，美国消费者在通 胀高企和劳动力市场略显疲软的情况下，仍保持较高的支出水平。 市场对美联储未来政策预期高度关注。摩根士丹利和德意志银行预测，美联 ...

Economic Data Summary - In August 2025, the annual inflation rate in the U.S. accelerated to 2.9%, the highest since January, compared to 2.7% in June and July, aligning with market expectations [1] - Food prices saw the largest increase at 3.2%, up from 2.9% the previous month, while used car and truck prices rose by 6%, compared to 4.8% last month [1] - Energy prices increased by 0.2% for the first time in seven months, contrasting with a decline of 1.6% last month [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at 3.1%, with a monthly increase of 0.3% [1] Labor Market Insights - The first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, significantly exceeding market expectations of 235,000 [3] - The number of continuing unemployment claims remained at 1.939 million, slightly below the expected 1.95 million but still above the average since 2021 [3] - The disappointing employment data has heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, shifting the focus from "whether to cut" to "how much to cut" [3] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates for the second consecutive meeting, indicating that the process of reducing inflation has "ended," suggesting a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle [5] - The GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 was revised upward from 0.9% to 1.2%, while inflation expectations were slightly adjusted upward for 2025 to 2.1% [5] Market Reactions - Gold prices reached a new high at $3,647.1 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, rising inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties [7] - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.36%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 0.72% and 0.85%, respectively [9] - Chinese stocks and concepts received positive market sentiment, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 2.89%, outperforming the Nasdaq index [9] Conclusion - The combination of rising inflation and weakening labor market data in the U.S. has intensified expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - The ECB's decision to pause rate cuts and its upward revision of economic forecasts have strengthened the euro against the dollar, contributing to a decline in the dollar index [10] - The market is responding to these economic signals, with a notable increase in risk appetite and capital inflows into Chinese stocks [10]

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 95.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 4.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and no probability for maintaining or increasing rates [1] - There are two main viewpoints on why the market is optimistic about a rate cut: one suggests pressure from President Trump is a key factor, while the other argues that the Federal Reserve operates as a collective decision-making body, independent of Trump's influence [2][3] - Trump's economic policy aims to increase government spending while minimizing taxes, which necessitates lower interest rates to manage the cost of new debt issuance [4][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has not cut rates this year due to concerns about inflation and unemployment, but current economic conditions suggest that a rate cut is warranted [5][6] - The expected pace of rate cuts will depend on inflation trends; if inflation remains stable, the Fed may implement cuts of 50 basis points each quarter, while any signs of inflation rebound could lead to smaller cuts [7][8] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair next year could shift the balance towards a more dovish stance, possibly accelerating the pace of rate cuts [8]

来源：暴走的大探 9月11日，欧洲央行行长拉加德，德国法兰克福欧洲央行总部：维持利率在 2%不变。道。 "我们继续处于良好状态。" 通胀率"达到了我们希望的水平"，国内经济稳健，而且在美国达成一系列关税协议后，全球贸易的不确 定性有所缓解。 "但我们并没有走上预先确定的道路。" ====== 欧洲央行维持利率不变 ======= 既然讲了美国，再讲讲欧洲吧。 通胀也不光是美国。 ======= 预测还显示，核心通胀率预计为 1.8%，均低于欧洲央行 2% 的目标。 ——这个预测说明欧洲经济明年有风险呐~~~~衰退。 因为关税冲击嘛。 这不两大发动机，德国肯定衰退，法国债务危机吗。 欧元区8月CPI同比上涨2.1%，高于7月份的2.0%，符合经济学家预期。剔除能源和食品等波动性项目的 核心通胀率则稳定在2.3%。 ——温和通胀是2.0%，核心通胀率也是在2%左右最好，能实现充分就业。 所以欧元区其实已经完成"抗通胀"任务了。 所以拉加德说"达到了我们希望的水平"。 美国还没达到。 ====== 不过，"没有走上预先确定的道路"，是说也没那么好。 最新预测显示，欧元区2027 年通胀率预计为 1.9%，低于 6 ...

（原标题：希腊8月通胀率降至3.1%） 希腊《每日报》9月2日报道，根据欧盟统计局2日发布的初步估计，希腊8月调和消费者价格指数 （HICP）增长3.1%，低于7月份的3.7%，而欧元区平均通胀率则从7月份的2%小幅上升至2.1%。希腊8 月通胀率与欧元区平均水平的差距大幅缩小。希腊通胀率环比下降0.6%，为欧元区降幅最大的国家。 ...

希腊《每日报》8月21日报道，欧盟统计局数据显示，希腊7月份的调和消费者物价指数（HICP） 为3.7%，几乎是20个欧元区成员国平均值2%的两倍。据欧盟统计局统计，欧盟27个成员国的平均通胀 率为2.4%。7月份，希腊服务业同比涨幅最高，达5.2%，能源价格上涨0.7%。 （原标题：希腊7月通胀率是欧元区两倍） ...