摩根大通认为，2025年上半年由美国"提前采购"和科技投资驱动的全球资本开支热潮，正面临挑战，预计将在下半年显著降温。 据追风交易台消息，8月7日摩根大通研报显示，2025年一季度全球资本支出飙升14%，但下半年增长率预计将骤降至0-3%，其中美国资本支出甚至可能 收缩5%。 其他发达经济体表现分化：英国（+49%）和加拿大（+23%）也录得了惊人的增长，但欧元区和澳大利亚则出现了温和的季度萎缩。 在新兴市场，印度和中国台湾地区受益于科技周期和AI驱动的需求，资本开支同样强劲，而韩国则出现收缩。 然而，摩根大通的追踪模型（Nowcaster）显示，尽管第二季度全球资本开支预计仍将保持约8.8%的稳健增长，但增长动力已出现放缓迹象，为下半年的 降温埋下了伏笔。 摩根大通的预测模型显示，二季度全球资本支出仍将录得5.6%的强劲年化增长，并在6月份保持稳健的月度增长势头。然而，7月份全球投资商品PMI的 大幅下跌预示着年中增长动能的减弱。 报告指出，随着美国"提前采购"效应的消退，企业利润增长停滞、高企的利率以及悲观的商业情绪这三大逆风因素将共同作用，预计全球资本开支增长将 急剧放缓。 上半年的强劲：一次由美国主导 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the UK consumer confidence index, marking the first drop in nearly three years, attributed to increased concerns over job security and high inflation [1][2] - Deloitte's survey indicates that the consumer confidence index fell by 2.6 percentage points to 10.4% in Q2 2024, the lowest level since Q1 2024 [1] - Concerns over a slowing labor market are leading consumers to worry about job security and income growth, compounded by high inflation and living costs affecting attitudes towards personal debt [1] Group 2 - Companies are reportedly less willing to hire due to three main factors: increased employment taxes, higher minimum wages, and potential legal changes that would make it harder to dismiss new employees [1] - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.7%, the highest level since 2021, while inflation in June reached 3.6%, the highest since January 2024 [1] - GfK's consumer sentiment survey presents a slightly different picture, showing a decline in consumer confidence in the latter half of last year, but a rebound to the highest level since December last month [1][2] Group 3 - Deloitte's survey involved 3,200 consumers conducted between June 13 and June 16, focusing on six key issues related to employment security, job opportunities, income, debt, children's welfare, and overall health and well-being [2] - Another economic survey indicated a 3.9 percentage point increase, although it remains 18.4 percentage points lower than a year ago [2] - Deloitte's chief economist noted that while economic activity has slowed in recent months, rising business confidence suggests resilience in the economy amid geopolitical uncertainties [2]

智通财经APP获悉，周一发布的一项调查显示，在英国企业高管眼中，美国作为投资目的地的吸引力大 幅下降，他们如今更倾向于挖掘本土及周边的投资机遇。 德勤对英国主要企业首席财务官(CFO)的调查显示，认为美国是"有吸引力投资地"的受访者净平衡比例 为+2%，较2024年底(特朗普总统就职前夕)的+59%显著下滑。 该报告与美国官方上月数据相呼应——2025年初美国外来直接投资(FDI)大幅下跌，这一下降恰逢企业 对特朗普关税计划的高度不确定性。 与之形成对比的是，德勤指出英国企业高管对本土市场热情升温：英国的投资吸引力净平衡比例 从-12%上升到+13%，与印度并列成为最具吸引力的投资目的地。 尽管如此，美国的吸引力仍高于欧洲其他发达国家等——后者在德勤调查中呈现负向指标。 德勤英国高级合伙人兼首席执行官Richard Houston表示："调查结果揭示了市场情绪的转变，英国现在 英国如今被视为全球领先的投资目的地。" "这种重燃的信心，加之风险偏好的提升，值得肯定，也凸显了英国所具备的巨大投资潜力。" 根据美国官方数据，2023年英国以6360亿美元的投资规模成为美国第四大直接投资来源国(按最终受益 所有人统计 ...

新西兰Nzier：二季度商业信心改善。 ...

劳埃德银行：英国商业信心达到2015年以来的最高水平。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while there is some expansion in UK business activity in June, the overall growth remains weak and the economic recovery faces multiple challenges [1][2] - The June manufacturing PMI in the UK is reported at 47.7, exceeding expectations of 46.6 and the previous value of 46.4, while the services PMI stands at 51.3, matching expectations and showing an increase from 50.9 [1] - The composite PMI for June is at 50.7, slightly above the expected 50.5 and up from 50.3 in the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in business conditions [1] Group 2 - Employment, new export business, and future output indices in the UK composite PMI have deteriorated, influenced by increased global economic and political uncertainties [2] - The new orders index has surpassed the growth threshold of 50 for the first time since November of the previous year, yet layoffs are accelerating due to rising employer social security contributions introduced by the UK Chancellor [2] - Business confidence remains low compared to the same period last year, with companies facing higher labor costs and lower demand, leading to continued job losses [2]

美国5月商业信心有所改善 前景悲观情绪得到缓解 金十数据5月22日讯，标普全球市场情报公司首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示，美国5月份商业 信心从4月份令人担忧的低迷中有所改善，对未来一年前景的悲观情绪有所缓解，这主要归功于暂停上 调关税。由于需求回升，目前的产出增长也从4月份的近期低点回升。然而，市场情绪和产出增长仍然 相对低迷，至少5月份的部分回升可能与企业及其客户寻求提前应对进一步可能出现的关税相关问题有 关。特别是，对与关税相关的供应短缺和价格上涨的担忧，导致自18年前首次有调查数据以来，投入品 库存的累积达到了有史以来的最高水平。 ...

英国央行委员泰勒：英国商业信心的持续减弱在零售销售和采购经理人指数调查中仍然明显。 ...