1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue its pressured operation, with short - term dollar index rebound being a negative factor for gold prices. Copper is expected to stabilize with short - term strength, supported by downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term view**: Downward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Weakly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Sideways operation [1] - **Core logic**: Overnight gold price fluctuations intensified. The New York gold initially dropped to around $3330, then quickly rose to around $3380, followed by a pull - back. The dollar index showed a dip - rebound. Market speculation about Trump potentially firing Powell and subsequent denial led to market volatility. The short - term rebound of the dollar index is negative for gold prices [3]. Copper - **Short - term view**: Upward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Strongly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Short - term strength [1] - **Core logic**: Since this week, copper prices have been oscillating around 78,000 yuan. The decline in Shanghai copper positions to below 500,000 contracts indicates reduced capital attention. Tariff impacts increase price uncertainty, causing short - term capital outflows. Downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads support copper prices, and the narrowing LME import loss reflects an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [5].

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced a sharp decline, dropping nearly 50 points and falling below the 98 mark, with a decrease of 0.58% [1] - Non-US currencies continued to rise, with the British pound increasing by 0.5% against the US dollar, currently reported at 1.3453 [1] - The US dollar also fell over 1% against the Japanese yen, currently reported at 147.25 [1]

美指失守98关口 非美货币继续拉升 美元指数 美元/日元 英镑/美元 金十数据7月16日讯，美元指数DXY短线急挫近50点，失守98关口，日内跌幅0.58%。非美货继续拉升，英镑兑美元GBP/USD日 内涨幅达0.50%，现报1.3453。美元兑日元USD/JPY日内跌超1.00%，现报147.25。美元兑瑞郎USD/CHF日内跌超0.50%，现报 0.7973。 ...

CBS援引多名知情人士报道称，美国总统特朗普询问共和党议员们，他是否应该将美联储主席鲍威尔免 职。 国会山议员们表示，特朗普暗示他将罢免鲍威尔的职务。 美国两年期国债收益率短线从3.92%跳水至3.8980%刷新日低，日内整体跌超4个基点。 2/10年期美国国债收益率利差短线从+52个基点附近飙升至+55.501个基点，日内整体转而上涨、并刷新 日高。 美元指数短线从98.80一线下挫至接近98.60的水平，日内目前大致持平。 ...

美元指数涨0.3%，报98.91，逼近6月23日顶部99.42和5月29日顶部100.56，7月1日还曾跌至96.38。 美元兑瑞郎涨约0.6%，报0.8061，逼近6月25日顶部0.8080。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy amidst ongoing uncertainties due to tariff policies, highlighting a slowdown in economic growth and mixed signals from various economic indicators [1][4]. Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 has been revised down from 2.2% to 1.6% by OECD, and from 1.8% to 1.5% by IMF for 2026 [1]. - Current expectations suggest a decline in U.S. economic growth to around 1.4% this year, primarily due to the waning effects of fiscal stimulus and the impact of high interest rates [1][5]. - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% in June, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, surpassing expectations [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - Despite a robust unemployment rate, signs of weakness in the labor market are emerging, particularly in the slowdown of job growth in the private sector compared to the public sector [6]. - The labor market is influenced by the overall economic slowdown and structural adjustments within industries, indicating a gradual weakening trend [6]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is mitigated by falling global energy prices and the limited scope of tariff implementation [1][8]. - The decline in oil prices from around $80 to approximately $65 per barrel has significantly contributed to controlling inflation [8]. - The actual impact of tariffs is less than initially expected due to delays in implementation and lower-than-anticipated tariff rates [9][10]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, as inflation indicators are trending downward and economic growth is slowing [11][12]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the federal funds rate may eventually decrease to around 2% or lower, although this will be a gradual process [11]. Currency and Trade Dynamics - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index is attributed to expectations of Fed rate cuts and a slowdown in global trade growth, which reduces demand for the dollar [13]. - Despite some supportive factors for the dollar, such as stable capital inflows, the prevailing negative factors are expected to dominate in the short term, leading to a continued weak and volatile dollar index [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold trends in relation to the strengthening US dollar index, highlighting the decision-making process for gold traders between bullish and bearish positions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US dollar index has been consistently rising and stabilizing, which impacts gold trading strategies [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing multiple market varieties to make informed trading decisions [1]

Group 1 - The PPI data release caused a short-term decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) by over ten points, currently reported at 98.62 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are expected to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,330 per ounce, showing slight increases due to safe-haven demand amid tariff announcements from Trump [1]. - Despite a recent rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 98.70, the market interprets this as a technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend shift, suggesting potential for gold price recovery [1][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to support gold prices, as market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations indicate a potential interest rate cut of about 44 basis points by the end of the year, with a decrease in the probability of a September rate cut from 80% to 53% [4]. - Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain vigilant regarding interest rate adjustments, which could impact gold prices [4]. - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is critical, as it may confirm inflation pressures and influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, with short-term price movements expected to remain within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [5]. - Long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and a trend towards looser monetary policy could provide upward momentum for gold prices [5][6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor PPI data and developments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as trends in the dollar and bond yields, to identify investment opportunities in the gold market [6].