报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年6月20日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为3.72%、 12.96%、9.62%、10.92%、9.26%、7.07%、21.19%、14.99%。中信一级行业指数中银行、有色金属、综合金融、农林牧渔、通信行业指数距离 250日新高较近，煤炭、房地产、食品饮料、消费者服务、建材行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，银行精选、银行、数字货币、黄金、万得微盘 股日频等权、创新药等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年6月20日，共816只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是医药、基础化工、机械行业，创新高个股数量占 比最高的是银行、综合金融、纺织服装行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股票数量最多；按照指数分 ...

智通财经6月20日电，英国央行行长贝利表示，不反对稳定币，但它们必须满足货币单一性的考验。商 业银行需要加紧应对数字货币供应的挑战。 ...

英国央行行长贝利：商业银行需要迎接数字货币提供的挑战。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market will be in a state of shock and consolidation, and the bond futures market should be mainly operated with a light - position and low - long strategy [5][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Financial News - China is fully prepared to join the CPTPP and will actively align with international high - standard economic and trade rules [3] - China is accelerating the review of rare earth export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [3] - The central bank conducted 203.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 19, with a net investment of 84.2 billion yuan [3] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations [4] 2. Investment Logic Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index fluctuated and declined. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 0.54%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.82%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.2%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.42%. The total market turnover was 1.28 trillion yuan [5] - Stock index futures fell across the board. The basis showed differentiation, with the discounts of IF and IH slightly expanding, and the discounts of IM and IC converging. The trading volume and positions of IM, IC, IF, and IH all increased [5] - After continuous shocks, the market declined again. The sharp adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market and the decline of popular concepts in the A - share market have led to a decrease in risk appetite and a setback for the bullish force. The market will remain in shock and consolidation [5] Financial Options - Most option underlying prices fluctuated lower during the day, and the trading volume of most option varieties rebounded. The 500ETF option was relatively active in trading [6] - The actual volatility of the underlying and the implied volatility of options showed a double - low pattern. The market sentiment was cautious, and the willingness to short volatility was weak. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking on short - volatility positions [7] Treasury Futures - On Thursday, most treasury futures closed down. The spot bond yields mostly rose slightly. The bond market continued to fluctuate, and the yield was blocked from further decline [8][9] - The current fundamentals do not support a reversal in the bond market, and the market adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach. Consider short - term long positions in TS contracts and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [9] 3. Data Chart Presentation - The report presents a series of data charts, including the trading volume and position changes of stock index futures and treasury futures, basis changes, the changes in south - bound funds, margin trading balances, option implied volatility, and various interest rate data [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][38][39][41][43]

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and more than 4,600 stocks falling [1][5] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.25 trillion yuan, with sectors like mining, oil, and gas showing gains, while technology, real estate, and port sectors faced significant declines [3] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Rising geopolitical risks, particularly concerning potential military actions by the U.S. against Iran, have heightened market volatility and increased risk aversion among investors [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates, coupled with warnings about tariffs potentially exacerbating inflation, has impacted global liquidity expectations and led to a sell-off in U.S. stocks, affecting Asian markets [10] Sector Performance and Investment Trends - High-performing sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, controlled nuclear fusion, and digital currencies have seen corrections, with specific stocks hitting their daily limit down [11][12] - The upcoming earnings reporting period for A-shares is expected to favor growth-oriented stocks, with historical data indicating that growth styles tend to perform better during this time [21][24] Future Signals and Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest monitoring two key signals: the geopolitical situation regarding U.S.-Iran tensions and domestic policy developments, particularly the upcoming Politburo meeting in late July [14][15] - The market is advised to focus on defensive assets like gold and oil-related funds, while also considering growth sectors such as AI and military technology for long-term investment [16][26] ETF Investment Trends - Despite recent market volatility, there has been a net inflow into ETFs over the past four days, indicating investor interest in diversified exposure [22][19] - Popular ETFs include those tracking the STAR Market, Hang Seng Technology, and various industry-specific funds, reflecting a balanced investment approach [20][18]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.36% [1] - The total market turnover reached 12,808 billion yuan, an increase of 591 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,600 stocks in the market closed in the red [1] Sector Performance - Oil and gas, short drama games, solid-state batteries, and PCB concept sectors saw the largest gains [2] - Oil and gas stocks surged in the afternoon, with Shandong Molong (002490) and Zhun Oil (002207) achieving five consecutive trading limits, and Shihua Gas (300483) hitting the daily limit [2] - The short drama game sector led the gains, with stocks like Baina Qiancheng (300291) and Ciweng Media (002343) also hitting the daily limit [2] - Solid-state battery stocks were active, with Nord (600110), Xiangtan Electric (002125), and Fengyuan (002805) reaching the daily limit [2] - The AI hardware sector showed localized activity, with Zhongjing Electronics (002579) and Kaiwang Technology (301182) hitting the daily limit [2] - The nuclear fusion and weight loss drug sectors experienced significant declines, with Changshan Pharmaceutical (300255) hitting the daily limit and Hanyu Pharmaceutical (300199) dropping over 10% [2] Notable Stocks - Stocks with five consecutive trading limits include Zhun Oil and Shandong Molong [5] - Stocks with three consecutive trading limits include Nord [6] - Stocks with two consecutive trading limits include Zhongjing Electronics, Yihua New Materials (301176), and Beifang Changlong (301357) [7] Hot Sectors - The Huawei concept sector had eight stocks hitting the daily limit, with no consecutive limit stocks [8] - The BYD concept sector had seven stocks hitting the daily limit, with two consecutive limit stocks [9] - The new energy vehicle sector also had seven stocks hitting the daily limit, with three consecutive limit stocks [10] Emerging Trends - The ChatGPT concept is gaining attention, with related stocks including Zhangyue Technology and Huayu Software, following news of OpenAI's upcoming product releases [11] - The digital currency sector is seeing growth, with significant legislative developments in the U.S. aimed at promoting the industry, and JPMorgan's introduction of a stablecoin [12] - The autonomous driving sector is highlighted by the launch of a new model by Cainiao, priced at 21,800 yuan, with promotional discounts bringing it down to 16,800 yuan [14]

此外，许正宇还正式对外表示，将于6月底正式发布第二份发展虚拟资产政策宣言。他表示，关于数字人民币 和数码港元，以前一直用"虚拟"两个字来形容类似资产，但后来发现名不正言不顺，觉得"虚拟"给人一种很 假、好像不是很实质存在的感觉。六月底香港政府将会发布第二份发展虚拟资产政策宣言，将从让数字资产 和实体经济的融合的角度出发，推出一系列措施。 6月18日，香港财经事务及库务局局长许正宇在陆家嘴金融论坛上表示，将于六月底发表第二份 发展虚拟资产政策宣言。他同时表示，稳定币的发展方向，是必须在兼顾反洗钱的同时兼顾到保 护投资者。 在发言中，许正宇表示，稳定币的发行是并非单纯追求科技的应用，也并非仅仅为了实现互通互联，而是想 回归金融的本质，要切实解决经济活动中的痛点问题。 许正宇表示，许多发展中国家面临一些困境，一方面是对本币汇率存在顾虑，另一方面是当地金融机构存在 诸多问题和挑战。在这种情况下，如果使用本币在当地金融机构进行支付，对于收款人或投资方来说可能会 存在担忧。而稳定币恰好可以提供一个有效的解决方案，作为一种支付工具，使得这些国家和地区涉及的交 易交付能够通过稳定币顺利进行。 许正宇强调，稳定币发行人并非一家 ...

Core Insights - The global economy is facing significant uncertainty, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, potentially dropping to 1.7% if trade shifts to a higher tariff framework [1][3] - There is a growing divergence in monetary policy stances among countries, complicating global financial stability and economic growth [3][4] - The current global macroeconomic governance is characterized by a lack of institutions, tools, and consensus, making coordination challenging [4][6] Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - Emerging markets are experiencing accelerated capital flows, currency depreciation, and trade uncertainties, while developed economies are balancing inflation control, growth support, and debt risk prevention [3][4] - The lack of a clear global institution for macroeconomic coordination and limited tools like Special Drawing Rights (SDR) hinder effective policy implementation [4][6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies exacerbates the challenges of coordination, impacting cross-border trade and consumer confidence [4][5] Group 2: Structural Changes and Coordination - New challenges such as climate change and the rise of artificial intelligence are complicating monetary policy coordination [5][6] - There is a consensus among participants that central banks need to enhance international communication and coordination to address these complex challenges effectively [6][7] - Strengthening dialogue and cooperation among central banks through platforms like the IMF and BIS is deemed crucial for navigating current economic challenges [7] Group 3: Future of the Global Monetary System - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is facing unprecedented challenges, with a trend towards a more diversified global monetary system emerging [8][9] - The development of cryptocurrencies and digital currencies is gaining momentum, prompting discussions on the future role of the dollar and alternative currencies [8][9] - The establishment of a global central bank digital currency (CBDC) platform is suggested as a potential solution to enhance monetary stability [9][10] Group 4: Stablecoins and Dollarization - The rise of stablecoins, particularly those pegged to the U.S. dollar, may further entrench dollarization in various economies, raising concerns about its implications [10][11] - While stablecoins can improve transaction efficiency and facilitate cross-border flows, their potential to promote dollarization necessitates careful consideration [10][11] - The emergence of stablecoins presents opportunities for enhancing financial systems, but their impact on dollarization must be critically assessed [11]

数字货币板块短线拉升，翠微股份（603123）涨停，楚天龙（003040）此前封板，海联金汇 （002537）、四方精创（300468）、京北方（002987）、广电运通（002152）、高伟达（300465）等跟 涨。 这几只票暗盘资金正在偷偷流入，立即查看>> ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a weak fluctuation on June 18, with over 4,100 stocks in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.20%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.15%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.36% [1] - Market sentiment remained weak, with various sectors declining. However, military-related concepts, AI hardware, and digital currency concepts showed strength, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Sector Performance - **Military Sector**: Military electronics and related concepts saw a strong performance, with stocks like North Long Dragon and Great Wall Military hitting the daily limit [1] - **AI Hardware**: Concepts related to AI hardware, including PCB and optical modules, also performed well, with stocks like Zhongjing Electronics and Yihau New Materials reaching the daily limit [1] - **Digital Currency**: The digital currency sector was partially active, with stocks like Chutianlong hitting the daily limit [1] - **White Wine Sector**: The white wine sector rebounded, with stocks such as Huangtai Liquor and Jinzongzi Liquor seeing significant gains [3] - **AI Glasses**: The AI glasses concept continued to be strong, with stocks like Yingpais and Yidao Information hitting the daily limit [4] - **Stablecoin Concept**: The stablecoin sector rose, with stocks like Xiexin Nengke achieving a four-day limit increase [5] Institutional Insights - **Huaxi Securities**: The firm believes that the A-share market is still on the path to an upward trend, with the upcoming Lujiazui Forum expected to provide important policy insights [6] - **China Galaxy**: The firm notes that while external trade pressures are easing, geopolitical conflicts are impacting market sentiment. The Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to announce significant financial policies [7] - **Everbright Securities**: The firm suggests that the market is currently focused on existing stocks, and without major unexpected positive news, the market is likely to continue its recent trend of index fluctuations and sector rotations [8]