Core Insights - The narrative logic on Wall Street is fundamentally shifting as the AI investment boom matures, with a focus on return on invested capital (ROIC) rather than just technological breakthroughs [1] - Companies that can demonstrate substantial returns from GenAI or GPU-driven technologies will attract capital, emphasizing revenue growth, user engagement, and expanded earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow (FCF) [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that the 2026 market theme will continue to favor companies proving substantial returns from AI technologies [1] - Key companies identified for potential growth include Amazon, META, and DoorDash, which are expected to leverage AI for efficiency and business expansion [1] - Sectors facing disruptive uncertainties, such as ride-hailing and online travel, are projected to receive lower valuation multiples [1] Group 2: Key Debates Reshaping the Industry - Debate 1: The focus will shift from parameter competition in large models to productization and monetization, with companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon being scrutinized for their ability to integrate AI into revenue-generating products [2][3] - Debate 2: The market will demand visible returns from GenAI investments, with a predicted leap in enterprise adoption rates, benefiting cloud giants like Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure [4] - Debate 3: The trend of layoffs may continue as companies utilize GenAI to enhance internal efficiency, potentially leading to a significant reduction in operational expenditures [5][6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Debate 4: AI agents are expected to revolutionize e-commerce, with companies possessing specific vertical data, such as Amazon and Walmart, likely to benefit first [7] - Debate 5: The availability of autonomous vehicles (AV) is projected to increase significantly, with the market for ride-hailing services expected to expand rather than contract due to AV technology [8] - Debate 6: Amazon's investment in physical AI and robotics is anticipated to yield substantial cost savings, with a focus on logistics optimization [9] Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - Debate 7: The U.S. offline grocery market, valued at $1.4 trillion, presents a significant opportunity for AI agents to streamline shopping experiences [10] - Debate 8: The search market is evolving, with AI search engines expected to drive a compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2023 to 2026 [11] - Debate 9: The gaming industry is undergoing a transformation due to AI, which is expected to lower production costs and create opportunities for cloud computing giants [12] - Debate 10: The online dating industry may see a revival through AI-enhanced matching algorithms, potentially leading to valuation recoveries for companies like Match Group and Bumble [13]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to deliver strong quarterly performance due to the ongoing benefits from the AI sector, which continues to gain momentum [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue has experienced rapid growth over the past several quarters, with a year-on-year revenue increase of over 30% in the last six quarters, significantly surpassing the five-year compound annual growth rate of 22.9% [3][4]. - Analysts predict a 22.9% year-on-year revenue growth for TSMC in Q4, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise by 31.7% [4]. - TSMC has consistently exceeded revenue and EPS expectations in the past 12 quarters, showcasing its strong performance capabilities [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Demand - As the largest semiconductor foundry globally, TSMC is a major beneficiary of the ongoing AI transformation, with robust market demand enhancing its pricing power [3][5]. - The company’s gross margin has expanded by over 600 basis points, and operating margin has improved by over 800 basis points during the last six quarters [3]. Group 3: Financial Strength - TSMC's tangible book value per share increased by nearly 27% in the first three quarters of 2025, and its net cash reserves rose from approximately $42 billion to $56.5 billion, providing a solid financial foundation for future investments [6]. - The company’s strong financial position is crucial for its ability to invest billions in research and new manufacturing facilities, which are essential in the high-tech semiconductor industry [6]. Group 4: Valuation - TSMC's expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the fiscal year 2027 is projected to fall below 20, indicating significant upside potential [7]. - The non-GAAP P/E ratio relative to the growth rate is only 1.23, which is nearly 30% lower than the industry median, suggesting that TSMC's valuation is attractive given its strong revenue growth and expanding profitability [8][9]. - Analysts have set a target price average of $360 for TSMC, indicating approximately 11% upside potential from current levels [9]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the strong expected performance, there is uncertainty regarding market reactions, as high expectations for AI transformation may lead to muted responses even to strong earnings reports [10].

Core Insights - The banking industry is transitioning from "functional services" to "experiential services" through the integration of AR, VR, and internet technologies [1][6] - AI technology is expected to drive the evolution of bank branches from a "thematic scene + technology application" model to an "intelligent ecosystem + precise service" model [3][9] Group 1: Innovative Branch Concepts - Ping An Bank has introduced an esports-themed branch equipped with 10 professional gaming devices and interactive elements to attract younger customers, transforming their gaming interests into financial service touchpoints [1][7] - CITIC Bank's "Yuxin Reading Space" features a large print reading area and a digital experience zone, catering to elderly customers' traditional reading preferences while incorporating smart services through AR/VR technology [2][8] Group 2: AI-Driven Enhancements - AI technology can help banks gain precise insights into customer needs, enabling personalized services by analyzing customer interests and behaviors, particularly in branches targeting younger demographics [3][9] - For branches with a higher elderly clientele, AI can facilitate multi-dialect voice interactions and provide timely assistance through behavior analysis and visual recognition technologies [4][9] Group 3: Upgrading Customer Experience - AI can create immersive and interactive service ecosystems, allowing banks to offer integrated services such as policy interpretation and market trend predictions through AI-driven industry analysis systems [10] - The implementation of AI in risk management can enhance customer experience while ensuring security, with systems capable of real-time transaction analysis and alerts for unusual activities [11] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - AI can streamline service processes, allowing bank staff to focus on complex tasks while reducing wait times for customers through intelligent navigation systems that allocate service windows based on customer needs [5][11] - The overall integration of technology in bank branches has led to a dual win of brand value and business growth, moving towards a replicable and scalable model for branch transformation [6][11]

专题：第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛 责任编辑：李思阳 专题：第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛 第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛于1月13日在线上播出。北京大学智能学院教授林宙辰 表示，将来 一个人可以管理很多智能体，每个智能体可以做很多的事情，而且未来绝大部分公司可能就只有少数几 个人，会管理很多智能体，办很多的事情。 "现有的学生思想观念还要做很多的转变，不一定非得进入大厂，或者国企等特别有保障的单位，唯一 不变的就是变化，大家还是要有一点胆略。"他说。 第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛于1月13日在线上播出。北京大学智能学院教授林宙辰 表示，将来 一个人可以管理很多智能体，每个智能体可以做很多的事情，而且未来绝大部分公司可能就只有少数几 个人，会管理很多智能体，办很多的事情。 "现有的学生思想观念还要做很多的转变，不一定非得进入大厂，或者国企等特别有保障的单位，唯一 不变的就是变化，大家还是要有一点胆略。"他说。 他还指出，即使在AI领域，岗位薪酬差距也特别大，Meta2025年引进的高端研究员，年薪都在一亿美 元以上，甚至达到了四亿美元，另一方面，美国2025年裁了十几万的程序员，"我认为没 ...

分析师指出，2025年美股软件股表现落后于大盘——IGV软件指数上涨6%，而标普500指数上涨16%。相关软件股实际公布的业绩其实相 当稳健，但围绕AI的各种争论持续对估值倍数构成压力。 巴克莱将笛卡尔物流系统集团的评级从"持股观望"上调至"增持"，并将其目标价从106美元上调至105美元。分析师认为，该公司最新公 布的2026财年第三季度业绩是一个积极的转折点，但考虑到其近期表现(去年股价下跌21%，而IGV指数上涨8%)，这一转折点被市场低 估了。 分析师表示："在我们看来，该公司最困难的时期已经过去，第三季度有机增长率从2026财年上半年因部分关税相关影响而创下的多年低 点重新加速。我们看到其持续的执行力以及2027财年上半年更容易的比较基数，将支撑其基础增长率保持稳定或略有改善，并且该公司 中期内通过小型补强收购推动非有机增长仍有空间。当前的市场环境以及管理层近期的评论，都预示着对该公司有利的并购环境。" Raimo Lenschow及其团队表示："我们认为这一情况将在2026年发生改变。在我们看来，应用软件公司将因比较基数变得更容易(终于摆 脱了疫情泡沫期的逆风)而获得增长支撑，同时定位良好的供应商 ...

智东西1月13日报道，今日凌晨，谷歌与苹果发布联合声明，双方就AI服务达成多年深度合作——苹果要依靠谷歌Gemini和云技术来构建苹果的基础模 型。原本在操作系统大战的两大巨头，在AI时代意外地走向融合。 ▲谷歌与苹果发布联合声明（图源：社交平台X） 据外媒CNBC从苹果获取的一份声明称："经过仔细评估，我们认为谷歌的技术能为苹果基础模型提供最强大的基础，我们很高兴它将为我们的用户带来 创新的新体验。" 消息一经发布，马斯克跳出来在社交平台X直言："考虑到谷歌旗下还拥有安卓和Chrome浏览器，这种权力集中似乎有些不合理。" 从今天开始，iPhone的"大脑"，即将由谷歌来部分定义。 ▲马斯克对此事件的评论（图源：社交平台X） 对于这场世纪牵手，广大网友也各执一词。有网友认为"（合作）这是正确的举措"，但依然发出犀利的提问："如果他们是对Gemini模型的微调，还能叫 苹果基础模型吗？"有人直指："这真是对那些吹捧iOS比安卓更好的失败者们的漂亮反击。" 鉴于此前苹果已与OpenAI展开了合作，于是有网友猜测其与谷歌合作的主要原因可能是"意识到OpenAI即将推出的消费级AI设备将与iPhone展开竞争。" ...

日经平均的涨幅一度超过1800点，防务相关股票的反应尤为突出。川崎重工业一度较前一周末上涨约一 成，IHI上涨6.33%，双双刷新2025年10月创下的上市以来最高价。三菱重工业也大幅走高。 在高市政府提出加强防卫能力、并有望大幅增加防卫开支的预期下，相关股票曾在2025年9月至10月曾 显著上涨，被视为伴随高市就任首相而汇聚业绩扩张预期的"高市交易"主角之一。尽管由于对业绩贡献 的确认不足，股价在11月至12月经历调整，但进入新年以来，在成长预期推动下再度获得集中买入，对 解散众议院、举行大选的预期再次为行情注入动力。 人工智能（AI）和半导体相关股票也加入涨势。在存储器供需趋紧、价格上涨预期持续的背景下，连 休期间美国股市中拉姆研究、博通等半导体股票上涨，日本市场亦受到带动，Lasertec刷新去年以来高 点，Advantest、Tokyo Electron和软银集团三家公司合计将日经平均推高约870点。 在扩张性财政政策可能持续的看法下，作为长期利率指标的10年期国债收益率一度升至2.160%，达到 约27年来的高位。受益于利息收入扩大的预期，银行股也获得买盘。瑞穗金融集团一度上涨6.13%，三 菱UF ...

消息面上，韩国SK海力士周二表示，公司已决定投资19万亿韩元（约合129亿美元）在韩国建设一家先 进的芯片封装厂，以满足与人工智能（AI）相关的、激增的存储芯片需求。新工厂将于今年4月启动建 设，目标是明年年底完工。SK海力士表示，全球AI领域的竞争不断加剧，正推动对AI专用存储器的需 求急剧上升，这也凸显出公司需积极应对市场对高带宽存储芯片（HBM）日益增长的需求。该公司预 计，从2025年到2030年，HBM市场将以年均33%的速度增长。 国信证券认为，Microchip CEO表示公司在多个终端市场实现了广泛的复苏，新一季度期初的订单储备 远优于去年12月所在季度的期初水平，建议关注周期复苏阶段料号导入加速的模拟芯片企业。存储除需 求量受AI需求拉动外，价格仍处于上涨周期中，TrendForce预计1Q26一般型DRAM合约价将季增55- 60%，含HBM的整体DRAM合约价将上涨50-55%，NANDFlash合约价上涨33-38%，建议关注存储产业 链企业。 相关ETF：公开信息显示， 科创半导体ETF（588170）及其联接基金（A类：024417；C类：024418） 跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid advancement of AI has transformed it from a novel concept to an omnipresent element in daily life, enhancing efficiency while also raising concerns about its negative impacts on creativity and authenticity [5][6]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Content Creation - AI has infiltrated various creative fields, leading to a significant increase in AI-generated content, with reports indicating that up to 50% of content in some online communities has been tainted by AI [5][6]. - The rise of AI-generated literature has led to a dramatic increase in the number of new works, with platforms like Tomato Novel seeing a surge from 400 new books in 2023 to 5606 in 2024, largely attributed to AI [8][9]. - The proliferation of AI content has created a challenging environment for traditional creators, who face the risk of being overshadowed by AI's efficiency and lower production costs [11][18]. Group 2: Personal Struggles and Adaptations - Creatives such as illustrators and voice actors have reported job losses and reduced income due to AI's capabilities, with some voice actors seeing their earnings drop from 200-300 yuan per day to 50-100 yuan [15][16]. - Many individuals in creative industries are exploring alternative career paths or adapting their work to coexist with AI, with some finding success in new ventures, such as creating original comics that emphasize human emotion and storytelling [26][28]. - The emotional toll of AI's encroachment on creative fields has led to mental health struggles among artists, with some contemplating drastic measures due to the pressure and uncertainty [12][13]. Group 3: Resistance and Coexistence - A growing movement against AI-generated content is emerging, with individuals using social media to express their concerns and advocate for authenticity in creative works, as evidenced by the 反ai tag gaining over 509.1 million views [9][11]. - Some creators are beginning to accept AI as a tool for inspiration rather than a competitor, recognizing its potential to assist in the creative process while still valuing human input [24][25]. - The ongoing debate about the role of AI in creative industries highlights the need for a balance between leveraging technology and preserving the unique qualities of human creativity [22][24].

人民财讯1月13日电，2026年1月13日，"新前沿：识变局，谋增长"第26届瑞银大中华研讨会(GCC)在上 海拉开帷幕。本届大会吸引了超过3600名与会者，包括2300余位来自全球与国内的机构投资者、主权财 富基金、家族办公室代表及私人投资者。瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰(Sergio P.Ermotti)在会上表示，来 自海外的客户人数也有所增加，彰显出亚太地区的重要地位以及市场对中国的关注度回升。亚太区有望 抓住AI带来的新一轮红利：中国科技板块于2025年加速创新，在AI价值链各层面都取得显著进展。 他还提到，"亚太区依然是我们实现增长的关键市场：2025年，我们在亚太的投资资产(AUM)首次突破1 万亿美元，还在中国取得了创纪录的财务表现。下一步，我们将充分运用中国的多个业务牌照与业务平 台，进一步强化投行业务的领先地位，并拓展财富管理与资产管理业务"。 ...