Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weather conditions in the Midwest of the United States are favorable, enhancing the expectation of a bountiful autumn harvest, which continues to suppress the soybean market sentiment. The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mostly closed lower, with the benchmark contract slightly down [3]. - The good rate of U.S. soybeans as of July 13 was 70%, higher than last week's 66%, last year's 68%, and the market - expected 67% [3]. - The market is concerned about President Donald Trump's tariff threats, fearing that importers may retaliate by restricting purchases of U.S. agricultural products [3]. - China's soybean imports in June reached a record high due to a surge in imports from Brazil [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE Bean No.1 2509: The day - session closing price was 4131 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan (+0.81%); the night - session closing price was 4149 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan (+0.80%) [1]. - DCE Soybean Meal 2509: The day - session closing price was 2992 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan (+0.71%); the night - session closing price was 2988 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (+0.37%) [1]. - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1007.25 cents/bushel, down 0.25 cents (-0.02%) [1]. - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The price was 281.5 dollars/short ton, down 2.5 dollars (-0.88%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - Shandong: The price of 43% soybean meal was 2850 - 2890 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months [1]. - East China: The price in Taizhou Huifu was 2820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, with various basis levels for different months [1]. - South China: The price was 2790 - 2940 yuan/ton, up 0 - 10 yuan from the previous day, with different basis levels for different months [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 15.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 15.65 million tons per day on the day before the previous trading day [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was not available on the previous trading day, and it was 77.07 million tons per week on the day before the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 14, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed lower. The favorable weather conditions in the Midwest of the United States enhanced the expectation of a good harvest in autumn, which continued to suppress the market sentiment. The good rate of U.S. soybeans was higher than expected. The market was also concerned about tariff threats and China's record - high soybean imports in June [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was - 1; the trend intensity of bean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day - session of the reporting day [3].

德国电视一台 13 日报道，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席朗格，用 "傲慢无礼" 来形容美政府的信函。他 说，欧美都密集谈判三个多星期了，还提出了保障共同利益的建议，结果特朗普突然决定加征关税，这 根本没道理，既没诚意，也缺乏应有的尊重。法新社援引德国工业联合会的表态称，美国政府这信函， 给 "大西洋两岸的工业界敲响了警钟"。意大利葡萄酒协会也表示，华盛顿这做法，在盟友关系里写下了 "最黑暗的一页"。法国《世界报》更是形容，美国这做法，对欧盟来说就像 "一记耳光"。 最近国际经济形势又有大变动啦！当地时间 7 月 12 日，美国总统特朗普宣布，自 8 月 1 日起，要对从 欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收 30% 的关税。这消息一传出，可谓是掀起了惊涛骇浪。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布了致欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和墨西哥总统辛鲍姆的信 。他宣称，墨西哥没能 阻止芬太尼等流入美国，在协助美国阻止非法移民入境方面也做得不到位；而欧盟呢，其关税和非关税 贸易壁垒，让美国对欧贸易出现了巨额逆差，双方关系远远称不上互惠互利。 这信里的措辞，和过去一周发给其他国家领导人的信差不多。都在警告对方别对加税进行报复，还鼓励 对方企业搬到美 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump has threatened pharmaceutical companies with a potential 200% tariff on imported drugs, but the market has reacted calmly due to the provided grace period for companies to adjust [1][2] - The grace period of "one to one and a half years" allows pharmaceutical companies ample time to stockpile and shift production, significantly reducing investor concerns [1][2] - Major pharmaceutical companies are already taking proactive measures, such as stockpiling drugs and increasing domestic production investments, indicating that industry confidence remains intact despite tariff threats [1][3] Group 2 - The grace period could extend until 2027, and companies may further extend their response time to 2028 through stockpiling, providing a strategic planning window for long-term adjustments [2] - The pharmaceutical industry is accelerating stockpiling, with hormone drug exports from Ireland to the U.S. valued at $36 billion this year, more than double last year's total [3] - Companies like Eli Lilly are investing heavily in U.S. manufacturing, with a $27 billion expansion plan, and tax incentives from Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" are helping to mitigate the costs of establishing new facilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The German government, led by Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has issued a stern warning regarding the new tariffs proposed by the United States, indicating potential decisive countermeasures if trade negotiations fail [1] Group 1 - The German government is prepared to consider "decisive countermeasures" in response to the U.S. tariffs [1] - Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz's statement reflects the seriousness of the trade negotiations between Germany and the United States [1] - The warning comes amid ongoing tensions regarding trade policies and tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The German federal government issued a stern warning regarding the new tariff threats posed by U.S. President Trump [1] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Scholz stated that the government would consider "decisive countermeasures" if trade negotiations fail [1]

Market Performance - On July 11, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.63%, Nasdaq down 0.22%, and S&P 500 down 0.33% [1] - Large tech stocks performed better than the overall market, with Nvidia rising 0.48% to a new all-time high, and Google, Amazon, and Tesla all increasing by over 1% [2] Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included Google (Alphabet) at $181.26 (+1.43%), Amazon at $224.99 (+1.23%), and Tesla at $313.50 (+1.17%), while Facebook (Meta Platforms) fell by 1.32% [3] - Among Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.43%, with Baidu down over 1% and BYD ADR down 1% [3][4] Commodity Prices - Gold, silver, and crude oil prices increased, with silver rising over 3.7% to a peak of $38.41 per ounce, the highest level since September 2011, and year-to-date silver has gained over 32%, outpacing gold [4][5] Trade and Tariff Implications - The recent U.S. tariff threats have raised concerns about rising consumer prices, with President Trump announcing a 50% tariff on all goods imported from Brazil starting August 1 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that high tariffs on Brazilian goods will increase living costs for U.S. consumers [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials indicated that the new tariff threats could delay interest rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating that the tariffs complicate the inflation outlook [7] - Goolsbee emphasized the need for clearer information before making decisions on interest rates, despite political pressures [7]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.2%, with a cumulative rise of over 0.7% for the week [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.2% against the Canadian dollar [2] - The British pound fell by 0.6% against the US dollar, marking the second consecutive month of contraction in the UK economy, leading to the worst eight-month decline for the pound [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential new tariff threats may delay interest rate cuts according to the Chicago Federal Reserve President and 2025 FOMC voting member Goolsbee [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee's comments highlight concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement suggests that external economic pressures, such as tariffs, could influence the timing of interest rate adjustments [1] - The remarks indicate a cautious approach to future monetary policy in light of evolving trade dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest tariff threats may delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by Goolsbee [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on the economy, which could influence monetary policy decisions [1] - Goolsbee emphasized that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is a significant factor in the Fed's decision-making process [1] - The potential for delayed interest rate cuts could affect market expectations and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated that new tariff threats may delay interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The potential for new tariffs introduces uncertainty in economic conditions, which could impact the timing of monetary policy adjustments [1] - Goolsbee's comments suggest that external factors, such as trade policies, are influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]