纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/11/7 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5200-5800 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6200-6800 | 16.41% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 EB2512 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 卖出 | 25% | 6500-655 0 | | | 跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看 ...

Core Insights - The automotive circulation industry is undergoing significant transformation due to changes in product structure, competition, and distribution models, prompting discussions on how to stabilize and optimize the circulation system [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 22, 2023, the number of applications for the 2025 vehicle trade-in subsidy has exceeded 10 million, with over 3.4 million vehicles scrapped and more than 6.6 million vehicles replaced [1] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles have been continuously growing this year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching new highs, supported by national consumption promotion policies [1] Group 2: Dealer Challenges - Despite positive market changes, dealers face ongoing challenges, including a general contraction of dealer networks and declining business revenues, with cash flow pressures due to delayed sales rebates [1][2] - The call for improved governance in the circulation sector and the restructuring of manufacturer-dealer relationships emphasizes the need for reasonable inventory levels and timely rebate payments to alleviate dealer survival anxieties [2] Group 3: Second-hand Vehicle Market - The existing vehicle ownership of 360 million provides a strong foundation for the expansion of the second-hand vehicle market, with improving policies and increasing transparency enhancing the operating environment [2] - Experts advocate for addressing bottlenecks in second-hand vehicle circulation and fostering professional, brand-oriented business entities to improve trust and service quality [2] Group 4: Future Directions - The automotive circulation industry is encouraged to lead new supply with new demand and to innovate in service offerings, transforming challenges into opportunities [2] - The industry association plans to collaborate with enterprises to reshape channel value, leverage technological innovations, and enhance the service capabilities throughout the vehicle lifecycle [2][3] - Establishing a more pragmatic and efficient brand authorization cooperation model is essential for fostering a healthy and orderly development of the automotive industry [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the different forms of "competition" in the context of technological self-reliance in China, highlighting that while "involution" is undesirable, it should not be feared [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of core technologies, particularly in the hydrogen energy sector, where companies like Dongfang Electric have established a complete hydrogen energy industry chain and have been recognized as a leading enterprise in future energy by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [5] - Original achievements in pharmaceuticals are highlighted, with Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical's self-developed Class I ophthalmic drug significantly reducing the price of imported alternatives, showcasing the company's innovation in drug development [9] Group 2 - The article points out the significance of technical talent in achieving breakthroughs in low-altitude aircraft technology, with Sichuan Wofei Changkong Technology Development Company recruiting experienced teams from leading research institutions to tackle complex engineering challenges [13] - The company has focused on developing key technologies independently, including flight control and tilt-rotor structures, which have undergone multiple iterations to align with national conditions [13]

Core Insights - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) is taking place in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, showcasing a positive shift in CEO confidence regarding China's economic growth for the upcoming year [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - 54% of Chinese CEOs express confidence in China's economic growth over the next year, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year, and significantly higher than their confidence in the global economy [1] - 73% of Chinese CEOs anticipate positive revenue growth for their companies this year, down from 81% last year; 20% expect negative revenue growth, up from 15% last year [1] Industry Performance - There is a notable divergence in revenue growth expectations between emerging and traditional industries; the life sciences and technology sectors show the most optimistic revenue growth outlook [1] - Traditional industries such as industrial manufacturing, consumer retail, and real estate face pressure on revenue growth due to supply-demand imbalances and weak demand [1] Competitive Challenges - "Involution" competition is identified as a significant short-term challenge for Chinese companies; 52% of CEOs prioritize R&D and innovation to develop new productive capabilities to overcome this competition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law aims to address irrational "involution" competition behaviors in the digital economy, which harm both consumers and legitimate business operators [1][19]. Group 1: Legislative Changes - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law has increased the number of articles from 33 to 41, specifically targeting new forms of unfair competition in the digital economy [1]. - New provisions have been added to address unfair competition behaviors related to data acquisition and usage, as well as malicious transactions in the online space [8][19]. Group 2: Case Study - A case in Jiangsu Province involved a company selling software that illegally scraped data from competitors, resulting in over 1.6 billion data points being collected and an involved amount exceeding 8.7 million yuan [5]. - The market regulatory authority imposed a fine of 530,000 yuan on the offending company, marking the first case of this nature in Jiangsu [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rise of "involution" competition has led to practices such as forced price wars and the use of unauthorized data, which disrupt fair market order and harm sustainable development [11][16]. - The law now explicitly prohibits platform operators from forcing merchants to sell below cost, addressing the underlying issues of price manipulation in the e-commerce sector [16][19]. Group 4: Implications for Businesses - Businesses are urged to operate within legal boundaries when collecting online data to avoid engaging in unfair competition [7]. - The law emphasizes the importance of maintaining fair competition to foster innovation and high-quality development in the market [14][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market in China over the next five years, as outlined in the recent guidelines from the Central Committee [3][8]. Summary by Sections National Unified Market Construction - The recent guidelines highlight the need to standardize local government economic promotion behaviors and address "involutionary" competition, aiming to create a more unified market environment [3][4]. - The guidelines call for the establishment of unified market foundational systems, including property rights protection, market access, information disclosure, social credit, mergers and acquisitions, and market exit regulations [3][5]. Local Government Economic Promotion - There is a focus on regulating local government economic promotion behaviors, which have historically led to market disorder and hindered the establishment of a unified market system [5][6]. - The article discusses the past issues with local governments providing tax incentives and subsidies to attract investment, which, while beneficial in the short term, disrupts fair competition [6][7]. Involutionary Competition - The article addresses the phenomenon of "involutionary" competition, where local governments' financial incentives lead to unhealthy price competition among businesses [7][8]. - The guidelines aim to rectify this by promoting fair competition and eliminating local protectionism and market fragmentation [8][9]. Future Directions - The article outlines four key areas for addressing involution: controlling local government subsidies, ensuring product and service quality, encouraging bankruptcy restructuring, and enhancing antitrust enforcement [9][10]. - The introduction of the Fair Competition Review System is highlighted as a crucial step in preventing local protectionism and ensuring a level playing field for all businesses [9][10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of fixed asset investment in stabilizing economic growth and optimizing investment structure for high-quality economic development [1] Investment Landscape Changes - Recent years have seen significant changes in China's investment landscape, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 3.2% in 2024 and 0.5% from January to August 2025 [2] - Real estate investment, once a primary driver, has declined significantly, with a 27.1% drop in 2024 compared to 2021, and a further 12.9% decrease from January to August 2025 [2] - The share of secondary industry in fixed asset investment has increased to 34.8% in 2024, up 6.1 percentage points from 2020, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1% from January to August 2025 [2] High-Tech Industry Competition - The rapid growth of high-tech industry investment has led to "involution" competition, characterized by price wars and reduced quality, impacting profitability [3] - For instance, the profit growth of large-scale automotive manufacturing enterprises was -0.3% in the first eight months of 2025, contrasting sharply with a 20.2% investment growth [3] Enhancing Investment Efficiency - Improving investment efficiency involves several key areas, including necessary investment returns for enterprises, financial feasibility of infrastructure projects, and the efficiency of investments in driving economic growth [4][6][7] - The capital-output ratio in 2024 reached 9.38, the highest since 2020, indicating a need to enhance the relationship between investment and consumption [7] Role of Investment in Economic Quality - The quality of economic growth is linked to total factor productivity, which needs to be improved through targeted investments in technology and resource reallocation [8] - In 2024, total factor productivity contributed 2.2% to GDP growth, highlighting the importance of investment in enhancing economic potential [8] Recommendations for Investment Improvement - Addressing "involution" competition through government intervention and industry self-regulation is crucial for maintaining a healthy market environment [9] - Developing a sustainable financing model for infrastructure projects is essential, focusing on balancing government and private sector roles [10][11] - Enhancing investment's role in boosting consumption and optimizing supply structure is vital for future economic stability [12][13]

Industry Regulation & Competition - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) initiated a proposal against "involutionary" competition to promote high-quality development in the warehousing industry [1] - Warehousing operators must strictly follow the "Price Law" and base pricing on production and operating costs and market supply and demand [1] - The industry should consciously maintain market price stability and jointly create a fair and orderly competitive environment [1] - The industry should resolutely resist vicious competition involving low quality and low prices [1] - In the entire bidding process, it is strictly forbidden to participate in bidding with quotations below cost [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to continuously unleash the vitality of the domestic market over the next five years, focusing on "expanding increment, enhancing efficiency, and smoothing circulation" as key strategies during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) highlights that there is both space and potential for expanding domestic demand, with initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending and investment in both goods and people [3] - Specific measures include implementing special actions to boost consumption, expanding service consumption, and promoting the upgrade of commodity consumption, alongside maintaining reasonable growth in fixed asset investment, which has reached an annual scale of 50 trillion yuan [3] Group 3 - The NDRC has reduced the market access negative list from 328 items to 106, and over 4,200 policies hindering the flow of factors have been cleared, although challenges remain [4] - Proposed measures include unifying market foundational institutional rules, eliminating local protectionism and market segmentation, and standardizing local government economic promotion behaviors to effectively remove market barriers and fully unleash the benefits of a large-scale market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on addressing "involutionary competition" to promote a unified national market, which is essential for smooth economic circulation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Regulation and Competition - The negative list for market access has been reduced from 328 items to 106, and over 4,200 policies hindering factor mobility have been cleared [1]. - The government aims to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation through unified market regulatory enforcement and comprehensive measures against "involutionary competition" [1][2]. - "Involutionary competition" is characterized by irrational competitive behaviors among enterprises and local governments, leading to overcapacity and decreased efficiency, which has garnered significant government attention [1][2]. Group 2: Government Initiatives and Economic Strategy - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on legal governance of low-price disorderly competition and encouraging product quality improvement [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has called for intensified efforts to eliminate "involutionary competition" by balancing market forces and government intervention, promoting mergers and acquisitions, and phasing out inefficient production capacity [2]. - Analysts indicate that the causes of "involutionary competition" are multifaceted, including technological advancements, short-term profit pursuits by companies, and deeper systemic issues [2][3].