Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and traditional banking leaders, particularly Jamie Dimon, highlights the growing tension between cryptocurrency and traditional financial institutions as the former seeks to establish itself in the mainstream financial landscape [2][3]. Group 1: Conflict and Tensions - Armstrong confronted Dimon at the World Economic Forum, where Dimon criticized Armstrong's views on cryptocurrency, calling them misleading [2]. - The banking sector is increasingly aware of the threat posed by cryptocurrencies, particularly as they begin to encroach on traditional banking services like consumer deposits [3][6]. - There is a significant disagreement between banks and Coinbase regarding whether cryptocurrency exchanges should offer regular returns to consumers holding digital tokens, with banks fearing this could lead to a loss of consumer deposits [3][6]. Group 2: Legislative Developments - The proposed Clarity Act could reshape everyday financial services, including bank deposits and electronic payments, and is currently a point of contention between banks and the cryptocurrency industry [6][7]. - The White House plans to convene meetings between banks and cryptocurrency industry representatives to seek a compromise on the regulatory framework [6][7]. - Armstrong has expressed a preference for no legislation over poorly designed laws that could hinder Coinbase's operations [7][26]. Group 3: Coinbase's Position and Strategy - Coinbase, valued at approximately $55 billion, aims to position itself as a mainstream financial service provider, offering a range of services beyond cryptocurrency trading [7][15]. - Armstrong has invested millions in lobbying efforts to influence cryptocurrency-related legislation and has established a Super PAC to support pro-cryptocurrency candidates [15][16]. - The company has a profitable partnership with Circle, allowing it to offer a 3.5% return to USDC holders, which is a competitive advantage in the current low-interest environment [23][24]. Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - The banking industry is lobbying against the Clarity Act, warning of a potential $6.6 trillion risk of deposit outflows if cryptocurrency companies are allowed to offer competitive returns [25]. - Armstrong has proposed creating a new category of stablecoin issuers that could offer rewards under stricter regulatory standards, aiming for a fair competitive environment [25][26]. - The outcome of the Clarity Act is seen as heavily dependent on Coinbase's stance, indicating the company's significant influence in the legislative process [26].

不过，Tether在声明中并未解释利润或收入变动的具体原因。由于公司披露信息有限，外界难以准确判 断年度利润下降的驱动因素。 加密货币下行或拖累业绩 Tether通过发行数字代币获得资金，并将这些资金投资于旨在维持其USDT稳定币与美元挂钩的资产。 该公司将储备金投资于广泛的资产类别，包括加密货币。自去年10月以来，数字货币市场经历了一轮下 跌，这可能对Tether的投资收益构成压力。但由于公司披露范围有限，外界难以确切分析利润下滑的成 因。 全球最大稳定币发行商Tether在启动融资进程的同时，2025年利润出现显著下滑，这家即将跻身全球估 值最高私营公司行列的企业正面临盈利能力的考验。 Tether在近日发布的声明中披露，公司2025年实现利润100亿美元，较上一年的130亿美元下降23%。这 一业绩公布之际，该公司正在进行一轮融资，融资完成后其估值将位居私营公司前列。 Tether首席执行官Paolo Ardoino在新闻稿中表示： "2025年重要的不仅是增长规模，更是其背后的结构。USDT之所以扩张，是因为全球对美 元的需求越来越多地转向传统银行体系之外，特别是在金融系统缓慢、分散或难以接入的地 区 ...

Core Viewpoint - Circle has released its product roadmap for 2026, outlining a vision for building an internet financial system [1] Group 1: Product Development - Circle aims to advance enterprise-level blockchain infrastructure with the Arc public chain as its core [1] - The company plans to expand the global application of digital assets such as USDC and USYC [1] Group 2: Payment Solutions - Circle will focus on developing the Circle Payments Network and StableFX to lower the barriers for institutions using stablecoins for payments, settlements, and foreign exchange transactions [1] - The initiative is designed to accelerate the integration of stablecoins into the mainstream financial system [1]

（来源：吴说） 作者：Frank @IOSG 链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ujzqy-tLNyqaTQNZNIYKRA Circle vs Tether：2026 全面开战 2025 年 12 月 12 日，Circle 获得美国货币监理署（OCC）的有条件批准，成立国家信托银行—— 第一国家数字货币银行（First National Digital Currency Bank ）。一旦获得全面批准，这一关键里程碑将为全球顶级机构提供受托的数字资产托管服务，助力稳定币市值在三年内加速增长至 1.2 万亿美元 。凭 借这一发展势头，Circle 在 2025 年成功上市，加上 USDC 流通速度的加快，使其成为与机构投资者联系最紧密的稳定币发行商。截至目前，其估值已达 到 230 亿美元。 ▲ Source: IOSG Ventures 尽管稳定币市场领导者 Tether 仍然保持超过 130 亿美元的高盈利能力，但其母公司面临持续的商业信誉与监管压力，例如近期 S&P 把 Tether 的储备评级 从"强"下调到"弱"，尤文图斯足球俱乐部拒绝了其收购要约。11 月 29 日，中 ...

Group 1 - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has sparked hawkish expectations, leading to a significant sell-off in the global precious metals market, with silver dropping over 35% and gold nearly 13% [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's policy framework may see a notable shift if Warsh assumes leadership, as Deutsche Bank suggests a unique combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" could emerge under his guidance [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a projected decline in national fiscal revenue for 2025, with total revenue expected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The World Trade Organization ruled that U.S. clean energy subsidy measures violate WTO rules in the dispute initiated by China regarding the Inflation Reduction Act [4] - The China-UK economic relationship is set to deepen with the signing of four economic cooperation documents, focusing on "Export to China" initiatives and service trade agreements [4] - The Panama Supreme Court ruled that the contract for the operation of ports along the Panama Canal held by CK Hutchison is invalid, prompting a response from the Chinese government to protect its legitimate rights [4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working to enhance the attractiveness and flexibility of refinancing systems to support the capital market's stable growth [6] - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% and significant sell-offs in gold stocks [6] - The CSRC is revising the registration management measures for listed companies to clarify the types of strategic investors and enforce a minimum holding requirement of 5% [6] Group 4 - The regulatory body has issued new guidelines for fund sales and marketing practices, prohibiting collaborations with unqualified internet influencers and requiring the removal of misleading features from fund platforms [7] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is addressing issues related to the surge in IPO applications expected in 2025, highlighting deficiencies in the preparation of listing documents [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is monitoring stocks with abnormal fluctuations and has reported several cases of suspected violations to the CSRC [8]

下任美联储主席人选出炉，律师出身的凯文·沃什获得美国总统特朗普提名！ 据央视新闻消息，美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参 议院批准。特朗普称"沃什绝不会让你失望"。值得注意的是，与美联储主席鲍威尔不同的是，凯文·沃 什并非经济学家出身，而是一名律师，他拥有斯坦福大学本科学位、哈佛大学法律博士学位。 下任美联储主席人选出炉 在2025年4月的一篇名为《扩大美联储角色的成本》的文章中，凯文沃什大力批评了美联储涉足气候变 迁和多元、平等、包容（DEI）的议题，加上美联储的量化宽松实际上扮演了美国财政部扩大赤字的出 资方，导致美联储扮演一个多功能政府机构的角色，而非一个范围狭窄的中央银行，因此呼吁恢复1951 年财政部-美联储协议，也就是美联储并不具备配合财政部维持低利率，以支持政府债务的义务。 在2025年11月的一篇名为《美联储的领导层失控》的文章中，凯文沃什指出由于美国进入创新时代（大 语言模型及AI），美国将大幅提高生产力。如果生产力每年增长 1%，则物价压力会自然减轻。因此供 给侧的增长是需求侧通胀的天然克星。沃什明确支持特朗普的削减支出和放松管制计划，认为美联储应 ...

这家信用卡网络巨头重申了其对 2026 财年每股收益、净收入和运营支出增长的预期，均预计以"低两位 数"范围的百分比增长。业绩公布后，Visa 盘后跌1.33%。 Visa 周三表示，将允许其信用卡持卡人使用奖励积分向美国总统特朗普设立的新儿童储蓄账户注资。 麦克纳尼称，这是帮助家庭为子女未来储蓄的一种"简单而有力的方式"。 12 月，该公司扩大了其服务范围，表示将向稳定币结算开放其美国网络。随着特朗普政府提供了更多 的监管明确性，Visa 及其同行一直在寻求进入稳定币市场的方法。 智通财经APP获悉，Visa(V.US)公布的盈利超过了分析师的预期，在强劲的假期消费带动下，支付额较 去年同期飙升了 8%。财报显示，Visa 2026财年第一季度的调整后收益为每股 3.17 美元，较去年同期增 长了 15%，超过了 3.14 美元的平均预期；营收同比增长 14.6%至109亿美元，同样超出预期。 Visa 的竞争对手万事达卡在截至 12 月的三个月中也见证了强劲的支出，推动其调整后净利润高于分析 师的平均预期。这两家支付公司在 11 月与商家就接受卡片支付所支付的费用达成了一项协议，尽管目 前尚不清楚这项 2 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fiscal first quarter, the company reported a net revenue increase of 15% year-over-year to $10.9 billion, with EPS also up 15% [5][24] - Payments volume grew 8% year-over-year in constant dollars, reaching nearly $4 trillion, while processed transactions increased by 9% year-over-year, totaling $69 billion [5][24] - Operating expenses rose by 16%, primarily due to unfavorable foreign exchange impacts and higher-than-expected marketing expenses [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer payments revenue was driven by strong payments volume, cross-border volume, and processed transaction growth [29] - Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 20% year-over-year in constant dollars, with commercial payments volume also increasing by 10% [29] - Value-added services revenue surged by 28% year-over-year in constant dollars, driven by strong demand across all portfolios [30][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. payments volume increased by 7%, with e-commerce growth outpacing face-to-face spending [25] - Total international payments volume rose by 9% year-over-year in constant dollars, consistent with previous quarters [27] - Cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe transactions, was up 11% year-over-year, with travel-related cross-border volume also increasing by 10% [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its Visa-as-a-Service stack, which includes innovations in payments technology, such as Visa credentials, agentic commerce, and stablecoins [5][13] - The strategy emphasizes building scalable technologies to enable money movement and payments businesses globally [5] - The company aims to be a key enabler in agentic commerce and stablecoin integration, expanding its capabilities in these areas [13][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of consumer spending and the effectiveness of their strategy, despite lower-than-expected currency volatility [24][35] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in value-added services and commercial solutions, which are expected to offset potential challenges from market volatility [50] - Management remains engaged with policymakers regarding regulatory risks, particularly concerning the CCCA, emphasizing the competitive nature of the industry [56][58] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $3.8 billion in stock and distributed about $1.3 billion in dividends to shareholders during the quarter [31] - The company has launched a stablecoins advisory practice to assist clients in developing stablecoin strategies [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Opportunities around value-added services for events - Management highlighted the ability to leverage sponsorships for bespoke client programs, particularly around major events like the FIFA World Cup and the Olympics [41][44] Question: Strength in value-added services and capital return strategy - Management noted strong performance in value-added services and commercial solutions, with a programmatic approach to capital return and share buybacks [49][51] Question: Regulatory environment and CCCA implications - Management emphasized the harmful effects of CCCA and the importance of educating policymakers on the competitive landscape and the need for innovation [56][58] Question: Growth in commercial solutions and spending trends - Management attributed growth in commercial solutions to successful product strategies and client engagement, with stable international volume growth across regions [62][66] Question: Flex credential growth trajectory - Management described the Flex credential as a versatile payment solution with significant growth potential, although still in early development stages [80][82] Question: Investment in processing assets and market opportunities - Management confirmed ongoing investments in processing technologies, particularly through the acquisition of Pismo, to modernize tech stacks for financial institutions [88][89]

（来源：吴说） 据每日经济新闻，韩国民主党确定虚拟资产市场法案名称为《数字资产基本法》，计划农历新年前提交 审议；稳定币发行机构法定资本要求至少 50 亿韩元（约 350 万美元）；新设 "虚拟资产委员会"，金融 委员会主席任主席，成员包括韩国银行副行长及企划财政部副部长，建立快速响应黑客攻击及系统故障 机制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tether has emerged as a significant player in the gold market, holding approximately 140 tons of gold valued at around $24 billion, making it one of the largest gold holders globally, second only to central banks, ETFs, and large commercial banks [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Accumulation Strategy - Tether is aggressively accumulating gold at a rate of about 1 to 2 tons per week and plans to continue this purchasing pace for at least the next few months [7][15]. - In the last quarter, Tether purchased an additional 27 tons of gold for its gold-backed stablecoin, which has appreciated by at least $700 million this year [5][4]. - The company acquired over 70 tons of gold last year, surpassing nearly all single central bank purchases, with only Poland's 102 tons being higher [8]. Group 2: Market Impact and Demand - Tether's role as a significant new buyer is expected to sustain gold demand, contributing to a 65% increase in gold prices last year [9]. - The price of gold has surged from $3,858 per ounce in September last year to over $5,200, leading to a value increase of Tether's gold holdings by over $5 billion [4][6]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Tether aims to compete directly with traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan and HSBC in the gold trading business [3][15]. - The company has hired two senior gold traders from HSBC to enhance its market activities [16]. Group 4: Gold as a Reserve Asset - Tether views gold as a safer asset than any national currency, emphasizing its liquidity and status as a non-debt asset [21][22]. - The company has also invested in gold royalty companies, acquiring shares in several mid-sized Canadian listed firms [24]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Tether's gold-backed token, Tether Gold (XAUT), is projected to reach a market circulation of $5 billion to $10 billion by the end of the year [27]. - The company is exploring ways to improve the efficiency of its gold purchasing process, as acquiring approximately $1 billion worth of physical gold monthly presents logistical challenges [18][20].