Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the US dollar index has not negatively impacted the strength of the RMB exchange rate, creating a favorable environment for the A-share market [1] Market Environment - Inflation levels are showing a mild recovery, and the internal momentum of economic recovery is gradually being restored, which is beneficial for the sustained slow bull market of A-shares [1] - Market sentiment indicates that the year-end rally is likely to continue, although there is an increased risk of short-term technical corrections [1] Industry Performance - Current market performance is characterized by sector differentiation, with well-anticipated sectors consolidating while waiting for validation, and previously lagging sectors are experiencing a rebound [1] - The focus for the year-end rally is on future industry hotspots, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and the resource price increase chain [1] Key Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include semiconductors, AI, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, media, computers, and pharmaceuticals [1] - Key themes to focus on include brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, humanoid robots, and quantum technology [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a remarkable 16 consecutive days of gains, with growth styles, particularly in commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and 6G themes, significantly outperforming the market. This trend is attributed to China's economic transformation and the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes new economic growth points such as quantum technology and hydrogen energy [1][2][3] - Historical data indicates that occurrences of ten consecutive days of gains in the A-share market are extremely rare, with only seven instances since 1990. The report notes that while short-term (5-day) gains are highly probable following such streaks, longer-term performance shows mixed results, necessitating an analysis of the core factors driving the market [2][4] - The report discusses the historical context of previous consecutive gain streaks, particularly from 1990 to 1992, where institutional reforms and stock scarcity propelled market growth. The completion of the stock split reform in 2006 is also noted as a significant factor that led to a bull market, supported by a healthy macroeconomic environment [3][5][7] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that strong fundamentals provide room for valuation recovery, and the smooth progress of reforms has catalyzed the current bull market. Short-term catalysts for consecutive gains stem from adjustments due to policy constraints, while mid-term factors include the ongoing stock split reform that boosts market sentiment [7][10] - Long-term market pricing remains anchored to fundamentals, with indicators suggesting that PPI growth is expected to converge, leading to an increase in corporate profit margins and subsequently driving A-share earnings recovery. The report suggests that the bull market is not yet over [11][12] - Investment recommendations focus on three key areas: the AI industry chain, sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan such as aerospace and new materials, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals, which are expected to show strong performance due to supply-demand dynamics and policy support [12]

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" indicator, defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts for individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and multiplied by 10,000. The indicator range is [0,10000][7] - A rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly heat index change rate (MA2). At the end of each week, the strategy buys the broad-based index with the highest MA2 change rate. If the "Others" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash. The annualized return since 2017 is 8.74%, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%. In 2026, the strategy achieved a return of 7.9%[13][16] - A concept-based strategy is developed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat index change rate. Stocks within these concepts are filtered by excluding the bottom 20% in terms of market capitalization. Two portfolios are constructed: the "TOP" portfolio holds the top 10 stocks with the highest heat index within each concept, while the "BOTTOM" portfolio holds the bottom 10 stocks. The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%. In 2026, the "BOTTOM" portfolio returned 6.4%[32][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to actively seize the spring market, with AI applications expected to enter a main upward trend [1][2] - The spring market is showing continuous development, with rising risk appetite and significant potential in the computer sector due to low institutional holdings and substantial industry changes [1] - Recommendations include increasing positions in core leaders in AI applications and domestic computing power, as well as focusing on key targets in cutting-edge technology fields such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, and digital currencies [1] Group 2 - AI applications are anticipated to experience a major upward trend, driven by positive industry developments and the entry of domestic large model manufacturers like Zhiyu and MiniMax into the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The market is closely watching the annual report expectations, with the potential for AI investments to shift from hardware to software, enhancing the upward potential of AI applications [2] - The outlook for the year suggests that AI applications will achieve more comprehensive and in-depth implementation, supported by continuous iterations in algorithms and computing power [2] Group 3 - The second chapter of the report focuses on the brain-computer interface industry, highlighting the imminent mass production of Neuralink and supportive domestic policies [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, indicating a notable increase in trading volume [1] - The medical services, military electronics, small metals, and semiconductor sectors saw the highest gains, with brain-computer interface and commercial aerospace concept stocks performing actively [1] - The brain-computer interface sector had substantial weekly gains, with Innovative Medical rising by 61.04%, Sanbo Brain Science by 56.15%, and Meihao Medical by 56.13% [1] Group 2 - Neuralink, owned by Elon Musk, announced plans to start mass production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026, aiming to reduce the implantation cost from $1 million to between $50,000 and $100,000 [1] - The National Medical Products Administration has initiated two industry standards for brain-computer interfaces, which will support future product registration and medical insurance pricing [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has established guidelines for the reimbursement of invasive brain-computer interface implantation and removal fees, with Hubei and Zhejiang provinces leading the implementation, potentially lowering the financial barrier for patients [1] Group 3 - The commercial aerospace sector remained active, with Shaoyang Hydraulic rising by 84.91% and Galaxy Electronics by 60.96% [2] - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Supporting Advanced Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading (2026-2028)" issued on January 9 includes commercial aerospace as a key focus area, aiming to accelerate breakthroughs in commercial rockets and electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOL) [2] - Major funds saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan in companies such as Huasheng Tiancheng, Dawi Technology, and Xian Dao Intelligent, while companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng experienced net outflows exceeding 4 billion yuan [2]

Macro and Financial - CPI continues to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December 2025, driven mainly by food prices, which rose by 1.1% [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance announced adjustments to export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, aiming to reduce trade friction and improve fiscal resource allocation [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting the construction of a national integrated computing network to enhance industrial smart computing capabilities [8] - A guideline for the construction of industrial green microgrids has been issued, aiming to promote the use of green electricity in key industrial sectors [9][10] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced new regulations to enhance whistleblower rewards for securities and futures violations, increasing the reward percentage from 1% to 3% of penalties [14][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high, closing at 4120.43 points after a 16-day consecutive rise, with significant trading volume exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan [19] - Goldman Sachs has expressed a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market, predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index for the year [17] Business and Industry - The MIIT has warned against irrational competition in the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for market regulation and quality supervision [27] - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly Committee is investigating the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform industry due to issues of excessive subsidies and price competition [28] - The Ministry of Commerce has stated that any foreign acquisitions must comply with Chinese laws and regulations, particularly regarding Meta's acquisition of Manus [29] - The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, focusing on drug-coated balloons and urological intervention consumables [33]

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 大势与风格 5 | | 中观行业与景气 7 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 9 | | 风险提示 10 | tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 11 ...

Group 1: Institutional Research and Market Trends - A total of 116 listed companies conducted institutional research from January 5 to 9, with nearly 90% achieving positive returns as the market rose [1] - Notable stock performances included Pulit with a 42.59% increase, and Chengdu XianDao and BoRui ChuanBo both exceeding 30% [1] - Key areas of institutional interest included brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, and AI applications, spurred by the recent central bank policy on digital currency [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface Developments - The brain-computer interface (BCI) concept is currently a major market hotspot, with the Wind BCI index rising approximately 20% [4] - Elon Musk announced plans for large-scale production of BCI devices starting in 2026, indicating significant future market potential [4] - Companies like Dineike have made advancements in BCI technology, including prototypes for smart sleep devices and a low-frequency transcranial magnetic therapy device [4][6] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing sustained interest, with the Wind commercial aerospace index also increasing by about 20% [7] - Chaojie Co. has engaged in multiple institutional research sessions, indicating a positive outlook for new client collaborations starting in Q1 [9] - The company focuses on manufacturing structural components for commercial rockets, which constitute over 25% of the total cost of a rocket [9] Group 4: Digital Currency Policy Changes - The central bank's new policy on digital currency, effective January 1, 2026, expands the role of digital RMB from cash-like to a broader monetary category [12] - This policy shift is expected to enhance banks' engagement and increase the application scenarios for digital RMB [12] - Tianyang Technology highlighted the need for banks to upgrade their IT systems to accommodate the new digital currency framework, particularly in payment systems [14]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the strong underlying drivers of the current bull market, including liquidity support, policy backing for capital markets, moderate fundamental recovery, and continuous industry catalysts, despite short-term overseas disturbances [1][9][10] - The report highlights the significant inflow into the A500 ETF, which accounted for 92.2% of the total net inflow of 110.6 billion yuan in December, indicating a strong market sentiment and confidence in the Chinese market [10][14] - The continuous appreciation of the RMB reflects a recovery in international capital confidence towards China, supported by a decline in the US dollar index and a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlements [18][19][21] Group 2 - The report identifies the small-cap index, CSI 2000, as an "invisible champion," outperforming the large-cap index during the recent market rally, supported by a favorable liquidity environment and moderate fundamental recovery [2][25] - The report suggests that the current bull market is characterized by a unique valuation expansion, where small-cap stocks face less resistance compared to large-cap stocks, potentially breaking the historical underperformance of small caps at year-end [2][25] - The report anticipates strong elasticity in small-cap stocks under conditions of risk appetite and liquidity support, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, suggesting that both can thrive simultaneously, driven by a global tech cycle and supportive policies [3][28] - It highlights the importance of monitoring the marginal change in profit growth (ΔG) for AI hardware, indicating that as long as ΔG remains stable, the sector is likely to continue benefiting from the ongoing valuation bull market [38] - The report notes that AI applications are transitioning from being a supporting role to becoming the core narrative of the tech sector, driven by policy support, demand release, and a mature industry ecosystem [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in institutional research and investment interest in sectors such as brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, and digital currency, driven by market trends and new regulatory frameworks [2][15]. Group 1: Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) - The brain-computer interface concept is currently a major market hotspot, with the Wind BCI index rising approximately 20% in the past week [6]. - Companies like Dineike have transitioned brainwave interaction technology from theoretical research to practical applications, indicating significant potential for future growth in various fields [4]. - Dineike has completed trial production of products like smart sleep devices and has submitted applications for medical device registration [6]. - Entropy Technology held three institutional research sessions, attracting 132 institutions, and plans to launch a prototype of its brain-machine business by March 2026 [6][8]. - The company emphasizes that initial efforts will focus on marketing and brand promotion, with uncertain short-term revenue impact [8]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector remains highly active, with the Wind commercial aerospace index also increasing by about 20% over the past week [10]. - Companies like Superjet have engaged in multiple institutional research sessions, indicating a strong interest from over a hundred institutions [10]. - Superjet specializes in manufacturing structural components for commercial rockets, which account for over 25% of the cost of mainstream commercial rockets [12]. - The company is expanding its client base and has made substantial progress in securing new orders [12]. - However, companies in this sector have cautioned about risks related to policy direction, technological breakthroughs, and market demand [14]. Group 3: Digital Currency - The People's Bank of China has introduced a new action plan to enhance the digital renminbi management and infrastructure, set to be implemented on January 1, 2026 [15]. - The policy marks a shift in the positioning of digital renminbi from a cash-like status to a broader monetary category, potentially increasing its application scenarios [15]. - Tianyang Technology believes that banks will need to undertake significant IT system upgrades to accommodate the new digital renminbi features [18]. - Future developments to watch include the issuance of supporting regulations and pilot programs for the digital renminbi, which could signal substantial promotional efforts beyond small retail scenarios [20].