A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 5 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 03 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 内容目录 | A H 股市场周度观察（12月第 5 周） . | | --- | | 一、Ａ股: | | 二、港股： | | 风险捉示 … | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场表现分化，主要宽基指数涨跌不一。上证指数微涨 0.13%， 但深证成指、创业板指和北证 50 均有所下跌，其中北证 50 跌幅最大，下跌 1.55%。 风格指数方面，中盘价值和小盘成长表现较好。行业方面，综合金融、石油石化和国 防军工领涨，而商贸零 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of "new quality productivity" is emerging as a significant development path in China, validated by various sectors including solar energy, electric vehicles, and digital technology [2][6][14] - China is becoming indispensable in the global green transition, providing cost-effective solar panels, electric vehicles, and key green technologies, which are crucial for achieving global sustainability goals [5][7][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of green and digital economies, aiming to position China as a leading industrial and technological power [6][14] Group 2 - China has established a leading position in key green industries, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicle production, with companies like Tongwei and CATL setting global benchmarks [7][8] - Guangdong province is highlighted as a hub for digital and green economies, showcasing significant advancements in technology and sustainable practices [9][8] - The integration of green technologies with digital economies in regions like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive sustainable growth [8][9] Group 3 - The concept of "green mountains and clear waters are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver" reflects China's commitment to balancing ecological preservation with economic prosperity, offering a model for other developing nations [10] - There is a call for increased collaboration between Europe and China, particularly in sharing green technologies, which could create jobs and enhance technological capabilities in Europe [11][12] - The future of global cooperation is seen as essential for addressing major challenges such as climate change and economic development, emphasizing the need for dialogue and partnership [12][13]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 券商新一年度首月"金股"组合日前陆续出炉。 Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月3日中国证券报记者发稿时，已有151只标的入围券商2026年1月"金 股"组合，港股标的数量占比超三成。中际旭创、腾讯控股分别成为最受关注的A股、港股标的。电 子、机械设备、汽车等行业"金股"分布较为密集。 对于1月市场前景，业内机构认为，A股进入关键数据验证期，波动可能加大，风格倾向阶段性再平 衡，配置上看好具备战略稀缺性的上游资源品板块、部分内需板块以及产业趋势明确、业绩能见度高的 细分领域龙头；港股未来有望继续震荡上行，配置上可关注科技成长及高股息占优的"哑铃"策略。 逾150只"金股"获看好 从多家券商发布的2026年1月"金股"组合看，中际旭创投资价值仍获看好，截至2026年1月3日中国证券 报记者发稿时，其获得光大证券、华泰证券、中国银河、开源证券、国联民生5家券商推荐。2025年12 月25日，中际旭创盘中股价创历史新高，虽然年末小幅回落，但当月涨幅仍超18%，2025年全年涨幅近 400%。 开源证券认为，中际旭创作为全球光模块龙头企业，领先 ...

来源：蒙格斯报告 探索前沿、研判趋势、赋能实践 于不确定性中锚定发展确定性 以理性洞察穿透时代迷雾 把握经济发展的核心脉搏 从DeepSeek的横空出世到AI泡沫风险防控 从美国关税冲突博弈到地缘政治解构 从资本市场起伏到消费活力提振 蒙格斯智库专家学者们 AI浪潮重塑产业生态 地缘博弈交织经贸变局 解构AI浪潮驱动的产业变革路径 拆解关税冲突背后的经贸博弈逻辑 预判资本市场波动趋势 探寻提振消费活力的有效路径 引领读者洞悉复杂变局 与不确定性交织下的财经核心脉络 感知时代转型进程中的强劲发展动能 为致敬过去一年的丰硕思想成果 蒙格斯特别推出年度重磅企划 "蒙格斯2025年度阅读量TOP10文章"以及 第七届"蒙格斯智库年度作家"评奖 致敬每一份智慧洞见与深度思考 展望崭新的2026年 期待专家学者们在前沿领域持续深耕细作 创作出更多映照时代的思想华章 房地产曾是中国经济高速发展的重要引擎，其金融化属性催生了行业繁荣，却也暗藏投机泡沫与高空置 率的隐忧——城镇住房空置率持续攀升，租售失衡导致刚需难满足、资源浪费等多重困境。当"堵"式调 控难破僵局，"租售并举"成为破题关键。文章聚焦房地产金融化的核心矛盾，探索 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of interest-bearing digital RMB wallets by six major state-owned banks marks a significant transition from a cash-like version to a deposit currency version, enhancing the functionality of digital RMB and aligning with the People's Bank of China's action plan for digital currency management [5][9]. Policy Core: Real-name Interest Calculation and Security Boundaries - The interest-bearing policy applies to personal and corporate real-name wallets, with interest calculated at a rate of 0.05% per annum, similar to current savings accounts, with quarterly interest payments [6]. - Non-real-name wallets, which only require mobile number verification, are excluded from interest calculations, emphasizing the importance of real-name systems for financial security [6]. Promotion Foundation: Scale and Scenarios - As of November 2025, digital RMB has processed 3.48 billion transactions totaling 16.7 trillion yuan, with 230 million personal wallets and 1.884 million corporate wallets established, indicating a growing user base [7]. - The application scenarios for digital RMB span various sectors, including retail, dining, education, and cross-border payments, showcasing its potential for widespread adoption [7]. Supporting Upgrades: App 2.0 Enhancing User Experience - The digital RMB App has been upgraded to version 2.0, addressing user needs for interest tracking and enhancing interface design with personalized themes, thereby improving user engagement [8]. In-depth Interpretation: Win-Win Institutional Innovation - The core significance of the interest-bearing policy lies in the transformation of digital RMB's legal status from a central bank liability to a commercial bank liability, creating a mutually beneficial incentive mechanism for users and banks [9]. - This initiative positions China as a leader in the global exploration of central bank digital currencies, reinforcing financial security through innovative regulatory measures [9].

数字浪潮奔涌，乡村振兴提速。近年来，景泰县牢牢把握数字经济发展机遇，以电子商务为抓手，深耕农特产品品牌建设，完善物流体系，培育专业人 才，推动电商产业稳步前行。 走进景泰县电子商务创业园，农特产品展示馆内琳琅满目的枸杞、红枣、籽瓜罐头等产品整齐陈列；直播带货间里，主播正热情地向网友推介"甘味"好 物，屏幕上订单不断，屏幕后打包、发货流程井然有序。 截至11月底，景泰县电商网络零售总额达4.96亿元，农村网络交易额1.45亿元，实现东西部协作消费帮扶金额3.3亿元，带动全县1220户5480人增收。全年 开展直播带货560余场次，销售额超720万元；完成电商培训4期，培育人才202名。同时下沉乡镇开展数字化技能培训，让乡村群众在家门口掌握电商运 营、直播带货等实用技能。 从品牌培育到人才集聚，从渠道拓宽到产业升级，景泰县电商产业不断迭代升级。如今，"景礼"区域公共品牌影响力持续扩大，三级物流体系打通农产品 出村"最后一公里"，直播带货让农特产品直达消费者，电商正全方位赋能乡村产业发展。 景泰县电子商务服务中心主任 曾海龙：下一步，我们将持续做强"景礼"区域公共品牌，以品牌化引领，全链条升级为导向，创新"直播+文 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in Wuhan reached 85.712 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.76%, indicating robust resilience in the economy [1] - The electricity consumption data highlights a shift in Wuhan's economic landscape, with significant growth in sectors such as new energy vehicle manufacturing and internet data services, which saw year-on-year increases of 71.9% and 240.6% respectively [1] Group 1: Electricity Consumption Trends - The second industry saw a year-on-year electricity consumption increase of 5.53%, with manufacturing electricity consumption rising by 7.57%, significantly above the average growth rate [1] - New energy vehicle manufacturing electricity consumption grew by 71.9%, underscoring Wuhan's leading position in the electric vehicle transformation [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors experienced a 14.29% increase in electricity consumption [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Indicators - In the first three quarters of 2025, Wuhan's industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.4%, with the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector growing by 18.0% [2] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector saw an 11.7% growth, further supporting the trend of increased electricity consumption in high-tech manufacturing [2] - The production of automobiles in Wuhan showed steady growth, with new energy vehicle output expected to increase by 56.7%, raising its share of total vehicle production to 52.72% [2] Group 3: Changes in Electricity Structure - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption grew by 3.84%, which is lower than the overall electricity consumption growth rate, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [2] - The electricity consumption in the charging and swapping service industry increased by 17.4%, reflecting the rising willingness of citizens to adopt green transportation [2] - These changes in electricity consumption patterns illustrate the coordinated development and green transformation of urban and rural areas in Wuhan [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth in consumer retail sales in Shaanxi Province, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% from January to November 2025, driven by effective policy alignment and consumer demand [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances, communication devices, and automobiles, with notable growth rates of 65.8% for first and second-level energy-efficient appliances, 60.0% for smartphones, and 34.8% for new energy vehicles, indicating a shift towards green and quality consumption [1] - Digital economy empowerment has opened new avenues for consumption growth, with retail sales through public networks increasing by 25.3%, breaking spatial and temporal limitations and allowing for the full release of consumer potential in the digital wave [1] Group 2 - The consumer market's stable operation is supported by a solid foundation, with retail sales of grain, oil, and food products increasing by 12.6%, demonstrating the resilience of essential consumer spending [2] - The central economic work conference has prioritized "maintaining domestic demand as the main driver and building a strong domestic market" as a key task for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for Shaanxi to leverage its large-scale market advantages [2] - Policies should focus on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in the consumer sector, addressing urgent public concerns, and fostering new economic growth points to inject vitality into economic stability and improvement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's economic resilience and growth potential in 2025, projecting a GDP growth of around 5%, positioning it among the leading economies globally [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP is expected to grow by approximately 5%, maintaining its position among major global economies [3]. - The strong performance reflects the resilience of the Chinese economy, driven by innovation from entrepreneurs and the hard work of millions of laborers [3]. Group 2: New Productive Forces - The core industries of artificial intelligence are rapidly expanding, with significant breakthroughs in quantum computing and deep-sea exploration [4]. - The digital economy's core industries are increasingly contributing to GDP, indicating a shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth [4]. Group 3: Domestic Demand - The total retail sales of consumer goods are steadily increasing, supported by policies like "trade-in" for automobiles and home appliances [4]. - The introduction of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" is expected to stabilize over 180 million business entities, enhancing the market environment [4]. Group 4: Open Cooperation - Despite global trade protectionism, China's foreign trade has shown resilience, with a 3.6% year-on-year increase in total goods trade in the first eleven months [4]. - The proportion of trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries exceeds half of the total foreign trade, indicating a robust open economy [4]. Group 5: Future Strategies - In 2026, the focus will be on expanding domestic demand to stimulate a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment [5][6]. - The government plans to implement proactive fiscal policies and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth [5]. Group 6: Technological Innovation - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes self-reliance in technology, targeting key areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and biotechnology [6]. - The aim is to enhance the role of enterprises in technological innovation and increase R&D investment intensity [6]. Group 7: Overall Outlook - The development blueprint for 2026 emphasizes strategic determination, comprehensive reform, and high-quality opening-up to navigate challenges [7]. - The collective effort of all contributors is essential for achieving high-quality development and advancing towards modernization [7].

Core Insights - Wall Street celebrated the debut of Biren Technology on January 2, 2026, with its stock price soaring 82% on the first day, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 85.5 billion, marking a significant challenge to global tech monopolies in the semiconductor industry [2] - The market's enthusiasm reflects strong expectations for domestic GPUs to replace imports, especially in a sector historically dominated by NVIDIA and AMD [2] Company Performance - Biren Technology's IPO was impressive, with an initial price of HKD 19.6, which surged to HKD 35.7 at opening, indicating robust investor confidence [2] - The company's revenue is projected to grow by 367% year-on-year by 2025, with over 60% of revenue coming from data center operations, showcasing its successful entry into high-end fields like AI and high-performance computing [2] Technological Advancements - Biren Technology's success is attributed to three key transformations: architectural innovation with its self-developed "Cuanfeng" architecture, ecosystem development through open-source tools, and vertical integration from chip design to system solutions [3] - The company has surpassed international competitors in some projects during recent MLPerf benchmark tests, indicating its products' reliability in critical sectors such as government cloud and autonomous driving [3] Market Challenges - Despite the capital market's enthusiasm, challenges remain, including foundry risks due to concentrated global advanced process capacity and a software ecosystem lag, particularly against NVIDIA's established CUDA ecosystem [4] - Continuous innovation pressure is significant, as NVIDIA invests billions annually in R&D, necessitating that newcomers like Biren Technology accelerate their pace [4] Industry Opportunities - The global demand for AI computing power is growing over 60% annually, and traditional giants cannot meet the entire demand, creating opportunities for domestic players [5] - China's digital economy has surpassed CNY 80 trillion, generating substantial local procurement needs, while the rise of open architectures like RISC-V is reshaping industry rules [5] Vision for the Future - The founder of Biren Technology emphasized that true competition lies not in current technical parameters but in defining the next computing paradigm, which is a valuable asset for Chinese semiconductor companies [6] - The listing of Biren Technology symbolizes a broader rise of China's hard tech sector, indicating a shift from technology following to defining the future, with the potential for more Chinese voices in the global GPU industry over the next decade [6]