越南和美国提前达成贸易协定，本国企业纷纷质疑：究竟是利是弊？ 【文/观察者网 熊超然】当地时间7月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，将对越南输美产 品征收20%关税，低于其最初威胁的46%。不过，美越两国均未提供具体细节和协议最终版本，河内方 面也尚未确认新的关税税率，仅称双方已达成"公平、均衡的互惠贸易协定框架"。 7月14日，英国《金融时报》报道指出，由于这份所谓的"美越贸易协议"缺乏细节内容，这给企业带来 了更多的困惑和不确定性。此前，美媒还曾援引多名消息人士爆料称，越南很可能被"摆了一道"，特朗 普突然单方面将关税税率提高到20%，令越南方面措手不及。 "越南与特朗普提前达成贸易协议，这值得吗？"许多企业纷纷质疑河内方面，究竟是通过迅速行动锁定 了更有利的关税条款？还是放弃了太多利益？ 报道提到，在特朗普宣布的协议中，美方还附加了一项条款——任何被视为"通过越南转运的商品"都将 被征收40%的关税。虽然所谓"转运"未被明确定义，但该条款引发了企业界的担忧，他们担心使用中国 制造的原材料将受到惩罚，而这些原材料对越南的供应链至关重要。 对于向阿迪达斯、卡尔文·克莱恩（Calvin Klein） ...

Group 1 - The core of the news is the announcement of a "historic agreement" between the U.S. and Vietnam, where Vietnam's exports to the U.S. will face a new 20% tariff, while goods transshipped from third countries will incur a 40% tariff [1][3] - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with nearly 30% of its exports directed to the U.S., leading to significant market volatility, including an 8.1% drop in the Vietnamese stock market [3][7] - The agreement includes Vietnam's commitment to purchase $8 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and $2.9 billion in U.S. agricultural products, while also expediting the approval of Trump Organization's golf project [3][9] Group 2 - The U.S. will impose a 40% tariff on goods that are primarily produced in third countries and undergo final processing in Vietnam, which poses a significant threat to the Vietnamese supply chain, particularly in electronics and textiles [3][7] - The interdependence between China and Vietnam is highlighted, as China supplies 26% of Vietnam's total imports and exports, making strict enforcement of transshipment controls potentially crippling for Vietnam's industries [4][7] - The agreement has caused tensions within ASEAN, with countries like Malaysia and the Philippines expressing concerns over Vietnam's unilateral actions, which could undermine regional unity [7][9] Group 3 - Multinational companies are beginning to shift their supply chains in response to the new tariffs, with Nike moving 30% of its shoe orders to Mexico and Apple planning to relocate 65% of its AirPods production out of Vietnam [7][9] - Chinese companies are adapting by forming partnerships, such as CATL signing a battery supply agreement with VinFast, while also exploring new cross-border e-commerce channels [9] - The agreement has led to a surge in stock prices for U.S. brands like Nike, indicating a positive market reaction despite the potential long-term implications for global supply chains [9]

Core Points - The United States has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, which is lower than the initially threatened 46% [1][3] - The agreement includes a provision that goods deemed "transshipped" through Vietnam will face a 40% tariff, raising concerns about its implementation and potential impact on Vietnam and the region [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. aims to isolate China through this agreement, as the supply chains in Southeast Asia are deeply intertwined with China [1][6] Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - Vietnam will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero and address non-tariff barriers related to intellectual property [3] - The agreement includes a commitment from Vietnam to finalize a $8 billion deal for 50 Boeing aircraft and a $2.9 billion memorandum for U.S. agricultural imports [3] Tariff Implications - The 40% tariff on "transshipped" goods could significantly affect Vietnam's export capabilities, especially if the definition of "transshipment" is broad [5][6] - Analysts warn that if the U.S. enforces strict definitions, it could lead to higher tariffs for other Southeast Asian countries, with potential GDP impacts estimated at 1.7% for Vietnam and 0.7% for Thailand [8] Geopolitical Context - The U.S. strategy appears to be aimed at reducing China's influence in regional supply chains, with concerns that this could push countries closer to China [9][10] - The situation presents a geopolitical gamble for Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations, as they navigate the pressures from both the U.S. and China [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the competitive landscape of the tea beverage industry, focusing on four major players: Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, Hu Shang A Yi, and Mi Xue Bing Cheng, particularly examining their business models and supply chain strategies to identify potential winners in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Business Model Analysis - Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and Hu Shang A Yi were initially regional brands that expanded nationally through a franchise model, with nearly 10,000 stores each by 2024 [4][5]. - The core product offerings of these brands are similar, focusing on fresh milk tea and fresh fruit tea, with prices generally between 10-20 yuan [4][5]. - All four brands utilize a franchise model, generating revenue primarily through franchise fees and sales of ingredients and materials to franchisees [7][11]. Group 2: Supply Chain Comparison - Mi Xue Bing Cheng has the strongest supply chain, leveraging direct sourcing and self-production to minimize costs, while Gu Ming follows closely with a robust supply chain and its own cold chain logistics [13][15]. - Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi have weaker supply chains, relying heavily on third-party logistics, which limits their cost control and can lead to quality inconsistencies [16][18]. - The supply chain capabilities significantly impact the brands' resilience during market pressures, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming showing stability, while Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi face declining same-store sales [16][18]. Group 3: Expansion Strategies - Gu Ming employs a unique regional densification strategy, focusing on achieving critical scale within provinces before expanding to neighboring areas, contrasting with the national spread of its competitors [19][20]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to maintain a high density of stores in key provinces, enhancing supply chain efficiency and reducing logistics costs [24][25]. - Gu Ming's approach has resulted in a significant market share in its initial provinces, with over 25% in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi, and a dominant position in the mid-range price segment [28][29]. Group 4: Product Development Strategy - Gu Ming adopts a fast-fashion approach to product development, quickly introducing and iterating on popular items while maintaining a high research and development investment [30][31]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to respond effectively to changing consumer preferences, achieving a high acceptance rate for new products and a quarterly repurchase rate of 53% [31][32]. - The competitive advantage lies in the ability to provide high-quality products at competitive prices, driven by an efficient supply chain [32][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the competitive advantage of supermarkets in the bakery product sector, emphasizing their supply chain efficiency and product quality over traditional bakery chains [1][3][11] - Sam's Club's Swiss roll has become a representative product, achieving annual sales of 1 billion yuan, with some stores reporting that it accounts for about 10% of total store revenue [1] - Hema's bakery products contribute approximately 30% to daily store revenue, with daily sales exceeding 400,000 yuan during new store openings [2] Group 2 - Supermarkets are increasingly adept at producing bakery items, with a focus on cakes, leveraging their strong supply chain capabilities to source high-quality ingredients like flour and eggs [5][7] - The supply chain's strength allows supermarkets to offer competitive pricing and quality for seasonal products like strawberries and durians, enhancing their product offerings [6][10] - The larger store size of supermarkets facilitates higher customer traffic and sales volume, with 60% of bakery product buyers also purchasing other items [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The competition between Sam's Club and Hema is characterized by a dual strategy of "high-end confrontation + down-market harvesting," reshaping the retail landscape in China through innovative business models focused on consumer needs and behaviors [3][4]. Group 1: Down-Market as a New Battleground - The down-market refers to the market in third-tier cities, counties, and rural areas, which constitutes the largest part of China's consumer market. The "billion-county" phenomenon is expanding, indicating strong consumer demand for high-quality products [5][6]. - Sam's Club has successfully entered the down-market, with its first store in a county-level city achieving record sales on opening day, demonstrating the strong purchasing power of consumers in these areas [5]. - Hema has also made significant strides, with 30% of its new stores in 2024 located in third-tier and county-level cities, achieving impressive sales figures that surpass some first-tier city stores [6][8]. Group 2: Motivations for Down-Market Expansion - The retreat of traditional retailers has created a market vacuum that new giants like Hema and Sam's Club are eager to fill, as evidenced by the closure of over 200 stores by Yonghui Supermarket in 2024 [8]. - Consumer upgrading trends are evident in down-markets, with Hema's new store in Xuzhou achieving sales of 45 million yuan in its first month, challenging the notion that down-market consumers lack purchasing power [8]. - Both companies are driven by internal growth needs, with Hema finally achieving profitability in 2024 and Sam's Club aiming to maintain growth momentum after surpassing 100 billion yuan in sales [8][9]. Group 3: Similarities and Differences in Strategies - Both Sam's Club and Hema emphasize product quality, leveraging their respective supply chains to offer high-quality goods to consumers [12]. - Sam's Club relies on a strong global procurement network, while Hema focuses on local supply chains and digital operations to meet local market demands [9][10]. - Hema employs a multi-format strategy, with Hema Fresh targeting high-consumption groups and Hema NB discount stores catering to price-sensitive consumers [11][12]. Group 4: Insights for the Industry - Retailers should conduct thorough market research to accurately identify target consumer groups in down-markets, tailoring their offerings accordingly [14]. - Optimizing supply chains is crucial, with lessons to be learned from Hema's local supply chain strategies and Sam's global sourcing practices [14][15]. - Emphasizing digital operations can enhance inventory management and improve consumer experience, as demonstrated by Hema's success in this area [15].

Core Insights - JD.com has rapidly captured 31% of the food delivery market and is now targeting the hotel and travel industry with a "three years zero commission" offer, receiving 50,000 applications from hotels within two days [2][3] - Unlike food delivery, hotel bookings are a low-frequency demand, making it challenging for JD.com to convert users who do not currently have travel plans [2][3] - To succeed in the hotel industry, JD.com must not only attract merchants but also drive consumer conversions to build a sustainable ecosystem [3] Market Strategy - Selling pre-sale hotel vouchers could be a viable strategy for JD.com, as they offer more flexibility compared to traditional booking methods [4][5] - Pre-sale vouchers can help lock in consumer demand and convert traffic into actual sales for both JD.com and participating hotels [5][10] - The pre-sale voucher model gained popularity during the pandemic, providing a lifeline for hotels and enabling platforms like Ctrip to recover financially [7][8] Competitive Landscape - JD.com aims to challenge established players like Ctrip, which currently holds a significant market share in the OTA sector [9][17] - The competitive dynamics are influenced by the established habits of consumers who are accustomed to using Ctrip for hotel bookings, making it difficult for newcomers to gain traction [17][18] - JD.com is leveraging its existing user base and partnerships with four-star and above hotels to position itself against Ctrip [19][20] Supply Chain Integration - JD.com is not just entering the OTA space but is also focusing on the entire hotel supply chain, aiming to reduce costs for hotel operators [11][12] - The company has already engaged with many hotels as major clients for its electronics and supply chain services, indicating a strong foundation for its hotel supply chain strategy [11][12] - JD.com plans to streamline the supply chain by reducing intermediaries and leveraging its logistics network to lower costs for hotels [12][13] Financial Services Opportunity - JD.com has the potential to explore financial services related to hotel bookings, similar to Ctrip's "buy now, pay later" model, which has seen growth in revenue [21][22] - The integration of financial services could enhance JD.com's offerings and provide additional value to consumers and hotel partners [22]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is aggressively expanding into the hotel and travel sector, leveraging its existing local life traffic and aiming to compete with traditional OTA platforms like Ctrip and Meituan through strategies such as zero commission for hotel merchants and consumer subsidies [3][12][23]. Group 1: Business Strategy - JD.com has launched a "maximum three years zero commission" initiative for hotel merchants, strategically timed during the peak travel season from late June to mid-August [3]. - The company is integrating its travel services into the JD app, offering new customer packages and exclusive discounts to attract users [5]. - The strategy aims to combine high-frequency low-margin services like food delivery with low-frequency high-margin services like travel, enhancing user retention through JD Plus membership [9][13]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - JD.com is positioning itself against Meituan, which has successfully cultivated user habits around its platform for various services, including travel [12]. - The competitive environment includes traditional OTAs that have established significant market presence and invested in upstream and downstream resources [20][26]. - The hotel industry is characterized by a mix of single hotels, brand chains, and high-star hotels, with JD's zero commission strategy primarily appealing to single hotels sensitive to revenue sharing [16]. Group 3: Market Challenges - JD.com faces challenges in securing hotel inventory, as new platforms often receive limited room allocations from hotels that prioritize established OTAs [19]. - The need for stable sales channel integration and the ability to effectively manage hotel inventory are critical for success in the travel sector [19][24]. - The hotel industry is increasingly developing direct sales channels, which may complicate JD's efforts to attract hotels to its platform [26]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In 2021, JD.com's revenue from hotel and travel services reached approximately 14.09 billion RMB, accounting for 43.3% of its total revenue, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 72.3% [11].

Core Insights - The Chinese OTA market has undergone significant changes over the past few decades, with Ctrip emerging as the leader, while Meituan, Tongcheng, Qunar, and Fliggy have settled into secondary positions [1][2] - JD.com is entering the OTA space, leveraging its existing user base and resources to challenge Ctrip, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [1][2] - The hotel market in China is still dominated by non-chain hotels, presenting an opportunity for JD.com to capture market share by targeting smaller hotels that are sensitive to commission fees [3][4] Market Dynamics - JD.com has over 800 million users, with a significant portion being high-net-worth individuals, aligning well with the business travel needs that Ctrip caters to [2] - The 2024 hotel market is expected to see Ctrip leading, followed by Tongcheng and Meituan, with the latter two having established advantages in resource integration and brand building [2][3] - JD.com is focusing on a supply chain model rather than a traditional commission-based model, which may allow it to attract hotels that are looking to reduce dependency on OTAs [4][21] Competitive Strategies - JD.com is adopting a "rural encircling the city" strategy by initially targeting smaller, commission-sensitive hotels rather than high-end chains [4][5] - The competition between JD.com and Ctrip is not just about immediate market share but also about long-term sustainability and resource allocation [8][21] - The traditional OTA model relies heavily on commissions and advertising fees, while JD.com is exploring supply chain service fees and membership value-added services [4][21] Supply Chain Considerations - The hotel supply chain in China is complex, with significant costs associated with distribution, which JD.com aims to streamline [5][21] - In 2023, 41,800 new hotels entered the market, indicating a growing supply that JD.com can tap into, especially among smaller hotels [5][17] - The shift towards a buyer's market is evident, with average revenue per available room (RevPAR) declining, which may benefit JD.com’s zero-commission model [22] Future Outlook - The entry of JD.com into the OTA space is seen as a potential game-changer, with the possibility of reshaping the competitive landscape [7][23] - The evolving dynamics of the hotel market suggest that companies with strong supply chain capabilities, like JD.com, may gain a competitive edge [19][23] - The focus on user experience and supply chain efficiency will be critical for JD.com as it seeks to establish itself in the OTA market [21][22]

Group 1 - The core idea is that JD.com is undergoing significant strategic shifts that could redefine its business model, focusing on supply chain management, stablecoin development, and international expansion of Chinese brands [2][3][4][5][6][7] Group 2 - JD.com is entering the food delivery market, not just to compete but to leverage its supply chain capabilities, aiming to become a "super supplier" across various industries [2] - The company plans to launch a stablecoin, which will facilitate cross-border transactions, reducing costs by 90% and speeding up the process to just 10 seconds [4][5] - JD.com is pursuing a unique approach to international expansion by helping 1,000 Chinese brands establish a presence in Europe, focusing on compliance and certification [6][7]