关税不确定性

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Milken Institute全球会议第二日要点回顾
news flash· 2025-05-07 15:26
Group 1 - The necessity of defense innovation was emphasized by Eric Schmidt, CEO of Relativity Space, who previously served as CEO of Google [1] - The head of mergers at JPMorgan discussed the current pessimistic outlook among traders [1] - The CEO of NVIDIA addressed the implications of chip export restrictions [1] Group 2 - Matt Gibson, Global Head of Client Solutions at Goldman Sachs, spoke about the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [1] - Emmanuel Roman, CEO of PIMCO, discussed the current levels of U.S. debt [1] - Castle Securities is seeking growth opportunities outside the United States [1] Group 3 - Armen Panossian, Co-CEO of Oak Tree Capital, explored how clients are looking to reduce their investments in the U.S. [1]
dbg markets盾博:关税不确定性令美债市场谨慎,长债收益率走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 05:58
Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade policies, leading to a re-evaluation of risk by investors [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to levels seen a month ago, indicating a "mean reversion" that masks deeper market anxieties related to trade negotiations [3][4] - The recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign films have added complexity to the already tense trade discussions, making it difficult for the market to establish a coherent narrative [3][4] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a chain reaction due to policy uncertainties, as evidenced by the decline in U.S. stock indices, ending a nine-day streak of gains for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day meeting is anticipated to maintain short-term interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but there is a notable expectation for a rate cut by December, reflecting a tension between market expectations and reality [3][4] - The long-end yield movements suggest a shift in market logic, as the 10-year Treasury yield is becoming a reflection of trade policies, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions rather than being directly controlled by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming supply of U.S. Treasuries, including $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year notes, will test market resilience amid growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical risks [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is seen as a "preventive tax" on global capital flows, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's inaction, leading to market pain during this policy vacuum [5] - The ongoing tensions in global trade and financial pricing mechanisms are creating a fragile balance that could be disrupted, posing challenges for modern financial markets in the face of de-globalization [5]
5月2日讯,美国非农就业报告将于北京时间今晚20:30公布,4月数据将首次揭示关税不确定性对就业市场的潜在影响。狂风骤雨即将来袭,敬请投资者留意风险…
news flash· 2025-05-02 08:22
金十数据5月2日讯,美国非农就业报告将于北京时间今晚20:30公布,4月数据将首次揭示关税不确定性 对就业市场的潜在影响。狂风骤雨即将来袭,敬请投资者留意风险… 相关链接 4月非农增幅将大大下降?20:30揭晓 ...
贝森特:两年期美债收益率发出美联储应该降息的信号
news flash· 2025-05-01 13:14
Core Viewpoint - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below the federal funds rate, signaling that the market believes the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet reiterated the prediction that as time progresses and trade agreements are reached, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs will diminish [1] - Despite panic over a significant drop in the stock market in April, the market ultimately remained relatively flat for the month [1] - Bessenet described the market's experience in April as having undergone remarkable volatility, suggesting that the journey will be worthwhile in the end [1]
日本央行行长植田和男:(当被问及关税不确定性是否会扰乱服务业通胀和价格传导时)这一可能性是合理的。
news flash· 2025-05-01 07:36
Group 1 - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged the potential impact of tariff uncertainties on service sector inflation and price transmission, indicating that this possibility is reasonable [1]
日央行维持利率不变应对关税不确定性 日元小幅回落
news flash· 2025-05-01 03:22
日央行维持利率不变应对关税不确定性 日元小幅回落 金十数据5月1日讯,由于美国关税带来的不确定性加剧,日本央行维持利率不变,美元兑日元走高。由 于特朗普的贸易战推动了对美国资产的抛售以及避险需求增加,日元在过去四个月连续上涨,上周达到 了自去年九月以来的最高水平。根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据,投机性交易者对日元的净多头头 寸最近攀升至历史高位。考虑到地缘政治的不确定性以及近期日元的强势,市场将密切关注日本央行行 长植田和男在下午的新闻发布会上对未来加息的任何指导。知情人士上月表示,日本央行官员认为,在 等待更多数据分析关税影响的过程中,没有必要改变逐步加息的立场。 ...
日度策略参考-20250430
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 07:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].
通用汽车拉响警报:尽管Q1盈利超预期,仍撤回业绩指引、冻结股票回购
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-29 13:58
关税不确定性阴云笼罩,通用汽车尽管一季度业绩超预期,但宣布取消年度指引,同时暂停股票回购计 划,就连财报电话会时间也有所推迟。 周二美股盘前,通用汽车公布一季度业绩,营收和每股收益均超预期,具体来看: 调整后每股收益2.78美元,上年同期2.62美元,超出预估2.72美元; 净销售额和营收440.2亿美元,同比增长2.3%,预估430.3亿美元,部分得益于消费者在价格 上涨前抢购。 对于超出预期的表现,部分受益于消费者的提前抢购,福特和Stellantis均提供折扣吸引消费者,考克斯 汽车3月新车销量环比和同比增长。 通用汽车首席财务官保罗·雅各布森在媒体电话会议上表示: 毫无疑问,汽车行业受益于一些客户在潜在关税生效前购买汽车的提前需求,尤其是在3月 份。这种强劲的需求环境一直持续到4月份,我们看到美国市场的交付量较去年同期增长了 20%以上。 取消年度指引,暂停股票回购计划 然而,由于关税不确定性,通用汽车取消年度指引,并且暂停股票回购计划。 净利润下降6.6%至28亿美元,调整后息税前利润34.9亿美元,较去年同期下降9.8%,但仍略 高于预期的34.5亿美元。 然而,超预期的季度数据掩盖不了未来的阴云 ...