炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 一是加速科技自立自强， 而且制造业投资不会减少，但是投的方向，投的标的，跟过去不一样。 二是建设强大的国内市场，大力提升消费，这个消费更多还是要跟新一代年轻人相适应； 他指出传统消费如白酒已从十年前1500万吨降至400万吨，再加大传统消费不太现实。 三是建设全国统一大市场，破除政策与制度卡点， 李迅雷认为，实际上这些年来咱们A股市场表现不佳，跟我们的PPI有紧密的关系， 如果PPI能够从三年的下跌变成回升的话，对企业的盈利肯定有一个很大的贡献。 中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷，日前在新浪分析师大会上，围绕"十五五"规划开局之年的投资机遇与宏 观经济，阐述了他最新的分析和判断。 李迅雷指出，2026年建党105周年、2027年建军100周年，以及2029年建国80周年等时间节点，可能带来 主题性投资机会。 李迅雷将"十五五"亮点归纳为三方面： 展望2026年，李迅雷预计经济增长目标为5%左右， 财政政策继续积极，一般预算赤字率约4.5%，广义财政赤字率从今年8.4%提高至9%； 货币政策空间有限，需要保持银行净息差的相对稳 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 economic outlook for China indicates that challenges are more profound than they appear, with a complex external environment and internal structural adjustments leading to moderate growth [1][3] Global Macro Backdrop - The global economic landscape for 2026 presents various scenarios, with persistent inflation and interest rate pressures, alongside trade constraints impacting growth [1][7] - US-China trade tensions remain a significant external variable, with tariffs increasing and uncertainty affecting bilateral trade and investment [1][13] Internal Policy Adjustments - Since September 2024, China has adopted a "three arrows" approach focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing, with policies adapting to economic data [2][38] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-quality development, prioritizing high-end manufacturing, technological self-sufficiency, and expanding domestic demand [2][40] Economic Performance Projections - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, with contributions from consumption, investment, and net exports, although domestic demand remains weak [2][38] - The recovery across industries is uneven, with high-end manufacturing and new energy vehicles performing well, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [2][38] Trade and External Accounts - Exports show resilience, particularly in high-tech products, and the current account is expected to maintain a surplus, with the RMB fluctuating within a reasonable range [2][38] - The transition to a new economic model is ongoing, with new economic drivers gradually contributing more to growth, despite structural contradictions and short-term pressures [2][38] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 4% of GDP, with ongoing efforts to enhance consumption support and improve fund allocation efficiency [2][38] - Monetary policy is expected to remain prudent, with adjustments to policy rates and reserve requirements to manage liquidity, although net interest margin pressures limit the scope for rate cuts [2][38]

Core Insights - The article discusses key recommendations from prominent economists at the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) regarding China's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and beyond, emphasizing the importance of structural reforms and innovation to stimulate domestic vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Liu Shijun advocates for increasing the consumption share of GDP by 1 percentage point annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need to stabilize and expand terminal demand to boost investment [6][8]. - The report presented by Liu Xiaoguang suggests setting cross-cycle targets for economic growth, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% and a CPI target of 1%-3% for 2026 [2]. Group 2: Financial Factors and Market Opportunities - Li Yang identifies four major financial factors influencing economic operations from 2026 onwards: changes in social financing structure, declining interest rates, new opportunities in capital markets, and a new paradigm for monetary policy [4]. - The phenomenon of "disintermediation" is noted as a positive trend, with funds flowing out of the banking system, which could create better conditions for capital market development [3][4]. Group 3: Employment and Income Distribution - Cai Fang emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to promote employment, increase income, and stabilize expectations, proposing a framework of "five combinations" to address these issues [10][11]. - The focus on increasing per capita income and improving income distribution is critical, with suggestions to enhance labor remuneration and expand public services to reduce disparities [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Strategy - Yang Ruilong stresses the importance of addressing short-term economic challenges with a long-term perspective, advocating for the modernization of the industrial system and the integration of technological innovation [14][15]. - The article concludes that despite current pressures, the fundamental trend of China's economy remains positive, with potential for sustainable growth through structural reforms and innovation [1][15].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged despite short-term challenges, with a projected GDP growth of around 5% in 2025 due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies, strong industrial resilience, and unexpected export growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The 2025 economic growth is expected to be around 5%, with a "front high and back low" trend, indicating strong growth in the first three quarters but potential internal demand issues [2][4] - The report predicts that the economic growth will maintain a medium-high pace over the next five years, but challenges such as declining exports, slowing investments, and real estate risks may arise [1][3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting cross-cycle composite goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, including a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%, a CPI target of 1% to 3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [4] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing consumer spending, particularly among low- and middle-income groups, to drive economic growth [5][6] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The current economic constraints have shifted from supply to demand, with insufficient terminal demand identified as a core issue, particularly in service consumption related to basic public services [6][7] - The report highlights the need to address the dual structure of urban and rural economies, which contributes to income disparities and limits consumption growth [6][7] Group 4: Income and Employment - Increasing income is crucial for boosting consumption, with recommendations to enhance employment rates and stabilize business expectations as key strategies [7] - The report advocates for fiscal policies that focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and improving the distribution of resources to enhance public services [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the theme of high-quality development in China's upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on technological self-reliance, boosting consumption, and building a unified national market [1] - Li Xunlei, Chief Economist at Zhongtai International, emphasized the importance of structural opportunities arising from the transition of old and new driving forces and the robust development of high-tech industries [3] - The conference participants included experts, scholars, and leaders from brokerage firms, funds, and private equity, all seeking investment insights to navigate through economic cycles [1] Group 2 - Li Xunlei projected that AI is not a bubble and its development is in full swing, indicating a bright future for the technology [3] - The current focus should be on the application of AI technology and the rise of potential enterprises, which should be a key area for analysts to study [3]

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 孔茜 11月28日，市政府新闻办召开"实干绘就'十四五'答卷 凝心续写发展新篇"主题系列新闻发布（第11 场），专题介绍济宁市"十四五"期间加力推进新型工业化，着力塑造发展新优势有关情况。 会上获悉，"十四五"以来，全市工信系统坚定不移实施工业经济"头号工程"，加快推进新型工业化，积 极培育新质生产力，全市工业和信息化发展取得一系列新成就。 这五年，济宁坚持科技赋能激活产业创新引擎，融合发展新动能进一步激发。推动科技创新与产业创新 深度融合，加强创新主体培育，累计建成省级工业企业"一企一技术"研发中心206家、省级质量标杆39 家，山东省煤基新材料绿色制造业创新中心通过省级认定，实现了济宁省级制造业创新中心零的突破。 推动先进制造业与现代服务业深度融合，积极引导产业链"链主"企业建设国家、省级工业设计中心，充 分发挥工业设计中心的带动作用和溢出效应，累计培育省级以上工业设计中心52家、服务型制造示范企 业（平台）40家，获评国家服务型制造示范城市。突出赛事引领驱动，高标准举办"市长杯"工业设计大 赛，评选奖励作品170件，展示出济宁工业设计创新成果。加强企业家队伍建设和技能人才培养，五年 ...

【宏观】 外需修复，推升供给——2025年11月PMI数据点评 新出口订单指数反弹，带动供给边际改善。 2025 年 11 月份，新出口订单指数为 47.6% ，边际回升 1.7 个百分点，创下半年以来的最大涨幅。在外需的支 撑下，生产指数升至临界点，但是表现不及近年同期平均水平，且涨幅弱于季节性。企业生产的积极性进一步提升还要内需的推动。从行业看，农副食品加 工、有色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业产需较为活跃，而石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、化学纤维及橡胶塑料制品等行业产需景气水平偏低。同时，原材料采购价格 总体水平加快上涨，反映"反内卷"治理效果持续释放。出厂价格指数虽然边际回升，但是仍处于收缩区间。在内需的疲软之下，制造业企业对原材料的扩大采 购较为谨慎。 建筑业景气指数边际回升，但是仍需提振。 在非制造业，服务业景气度边际回落，降幅强于季节性。究其原因，除了假期效应消退的影响，还与房地产供需 加快调整后，相关行业市场活跃度偏弱有关。建筑业景气指数边际回升，涨幅强于季节性。究其原因，或与四季度新型政策性金融工具落地、部分地方债结存 限额的投放有关。值得一提的是，财政部将提前下达 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，支 ...

上海财经大学滴水湖高级金融学院院长姚洋指出，经过多年深刻调整，中国经济正迈入一个全新发展阶 段：以制造业和自主创新为核心、以国家战略安全为底盘。未来五到十年，中国经济将围绕这一主线不 断重塑，开启新时代的高质量发展新周期。 兴业银行首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事鲁政委认为，打通科技创新全链条的金融支持体系 需要六个阶段：在创新孵生阶段，依赖财政资金、政策性金融和公益捐赠；进入产品成熟和行业引入阶 段，则由国家引导基金牵头，并引导银行险资、社保、信托等长期资本通过股权投资介入；当企业技术 成熟、具备产业化条件后，绿色通道的设立为一级市场提供了高效退出渠道，进而引导更多资本投向关 键科技领域，形成"早期投资—适时退出—再投入创新"的良性循环。在IPO成功进入资本市场后，ETF 等产品承接二级市场资金，居民、社保基金及机构投资者参与投资，实现"储蓄—创新—回流"的循环， 中央汇金和平准基金在此过程中降低波动率，能够提升投资者入市的信心，改善投资体验。 鲁政委认为，未来中国资本市场有望进入估值系统性提升的周期，使高储蓄真正转化为创新驱动力，为 现代化产业体系建设和中国经济的长期增长注入坚实的金融支撑。 本次论 ...

11月27日，国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根在"第19届中国投资年会"上放了个大招，他说现在这轮行情时空还没走完，这话一出，大伙儿都在琢磨，这牛市到 底还有多少空间？ 1998-2000年那阵子，轻工业产能过剩，跟现在房地产链供给过剩的情况有点类似。 都是经济遇到坎了，政策出来拉一把股市，想通过资本市场提振信心。 1999年那波行情，政策组合拳打得挺猛，又是降印花税，又是推国企改革。 2024年这次也不含糊，量化宽松加上产业扶持政策，力度一点不小。 要搞明白现在的市场走势，不妨先看看历史。 1999年那波"5·19行情"很多老股民应该还有印象，当时宏观经济压力不小，政策一出手，股市一个月就从1000点冲到1700点，涨了70%。 那波行情持续了两年，总涨幅120%，最后还是因为政策退出才结束的。 把时钟拨回现在，2024年的"9·24行情"也挺猛，6个交易日上证指数从2600点涨到3000点。 同样是政策驱动，同样是经济下行期，这两次行情还真有点像双胞胎，不过仔细看，两者又有不一样的地方。 1999年那会刚经历亚洲金融危机，政策空间受紧缩周期制约。 现在不一样了，美联储降息周期开启，国内利率环境也比较宽松，政策工 ...

Core Viewpoint - Koyuan Pharmaceutical has decided to terminate the issuance of shares for asset acquisition and related fundraising due to changes in the market environment, aiming to protect the long-term interests of all shareholders [1] Group 1: Termination of Acquisition - The board of Koyuan Pharmaceutical has approved the termination of the share issuance for acquiring 99.42% of Hongjitang for a consideration of 3.58 billion yuan and raising up to 700 million yuan in supporting funds [1] - The termination is described as a prudent decision to maintain the long-term interests of shareholders, with no significant adverse impact on the company's current operations [1] Group 2: Business Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, Koyuan Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 303 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.47 million yuan, down 20.7% [2] - The company's operating cash flow net amount was 27.24 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Koyuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary, Linuo Pharmaceutical, has had its intelligent manufacturing project for injectables included in the list of major industrial projects for the province's new and old kinetic energy conversion in 2025 [2] - The intelligent manufacturing project, completed on September 28, covers an area of approximately 46,000 square meters and includes key areas such as quality inspection and R&D buildings, high-end injectable production workshops, and a comprehensive intelligent warehouse [2] - The project aims to leverage industrial internet, artificial intelligence, and big data technologies to create a comprehensive smart control system from R&D to production, meeting the standards of China GMP, US FDA, and EU GMP [2][3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Koyuan Pharmaceutical plans to use the inclusion of its project as an opportunity to increase innovation investment and empower industrial upgrades, contributing to the high-quality development of the pharmaceutical industry in Shandong Province [3]