2026 年 1 月 14 日 总量研究 出口逆势破局，继续看好 2026 年表现 ——2025 年 12 月进出口数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 11 月的出口高增速可持续吗？——2025 年 11 月进出口数据点评（2025-12-08） 高基数效应拖累出口同比增速——2025 年 10 月进出口数据点评（2025-11-07） 为何 9 月出口增速超预期？——2025 年 9 月 进出口数据点评（2025-10-14） 我国对非美出口的驱动力是什么？——2025 年 8 月进出口数据点评（2025-09-09） 新兴市场支撑出口作用进一步显现——2025 年 7 月进出口数据点评（2025-08-07） 6 月出口强劲，下半年怎么看？——2025 年 6 月进出口数据点评（2025-07-15） 出口增速为何回落？——2025年5月进出口 数据点评（2025-06-09 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the bull market in precious metals will continue to advance, driven by the dual engines of "financial attributes + industrial demand", with significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, while silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance" [2][115][116]. - Gold is expected to have a high of around $5000 per ounce in 2026. It is recommended to use gold as the core strategic defensive variety in the 2026 asset portfolio to achieve risk hedging and value preservation [2][115]. - Silver's price increase space will be more prominent in 2026, with greater room for imagination. Its high - volatility characteristics are expected to continue [2][116]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Gold: Multifaceted Hedge and Long - Term Allocation Value Remains - **Global "Broad Fiscal" Cycle Resonance**: In 2026, major global economies are expected to continue the broad fiscal cycle, with the US, Europe, and Japan showing different fiscal expansion patterns. The US's "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit, and the deficit rate is expected to rise to about 7.0% in 2026. Germany will drive the mild expansion of the euro - zone's fiscal policy, and Japan will see a moderate increase in the deficit rate. The broad fiscal cycle has intensified concerns about fiscal sustainability, pushing up long - term bond yields and eroding the credit of major currencies, highlighting the value of gold as a "ballast stone" [7][9][10][11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut Cycle**: The Fed will continue the interest rate cut cycle in 2026, with a "stable at first, then rapid" rhythm. Economic and debt pressures will drive the need for a low - interest - rate environment. The change of the Fed chairman will be a key variable, with a dovish new chairman expected to accelerate the interest rate cut process. The Fed's technical balance - sheet expansion and its combination with the US Treasury's debt issuance strategy will inject liquidity and reduce the financing and holding costs of precious metals. However, concerns about the Fed's policy independence remain [24][33][43][44]. - **US Mid - term Elections**: The "pendulum effect" of the 2026 US mid - term elections will reduce trade and geopolitical fluctuations. Although the overall tariff risk is lower, short - term attention should be paid to potential tariff increases in key industries, and the risk of sudden outbreaks in Sino - US trade conflicts still exists [48][52][54]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, which is a long - term strategic adjustment of the currency reserve structure. Emerging market central banks, as the main buyers, still have room to increase their gold reserves. In 2026, central bank net purchases are expected to remain above 800 tons, providing strong support for the gold market [56][61][62]. - **Gold Investment Scale**: In 2025, gold investment demand was strong, but the current proportion of gold in global asset management is still low, and there is still a large space for growth in gold investment scale [63][64][67]. Silver: Dual - Engine Drive of "Industry + Finance" and Strategic Resource Value Highlights - **Supply Constraints**: Global silver supply growth is sluggish. Structural factors such as the decline in mine grade, the lack of new large - scale silver mines, and the fact that silver is mostly a by - product of other metals limit production growth. In 2026, the production of associated silver may be affected by the smelting restrictions of copper, lead, and zinc [70][72][75]. - **Diversified Demand**: - **Industrial Demand**: The demand for silver in the photovoltaic, automotive, and data center and artificial intelligence industries is expected to continue to grow. The photovoltaic industry will drive silver consumption due to the increase in installed capacity, the automotive industry will see increased demand due to electrification, and the development of data centers and artificial intelligence will also boost silver demand [82][86][87]. - **Investment Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for silver increased significantly, and the position of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, continued to rise. There is still room for the position to return to the historical high, which will provide upward momentum for the silver price [96]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: Since 2021, the global silver market has been in a supply shortage pattern, and this situation is expected to continue in 2026, providing upward momentum for the silver price [69][101][102]. - **Low Inventory**: In 2025, the inventories of major silver markets were at multi - year lows. Low inventory will amplify price fluctuations and may trigger a squeeze - out market [103][105][108]. - **Strategic Resource Attribute**: Major countries around the world have introduced policies to manage silver as a strategic resource, which will have a complex impact on the silver price and supply - demand structure in the short and long term [109][110][111]. 2026 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, and it is recommended to use it as a core strategic defensive variety in the asset portfolio. Silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance", with greater price increase potential and high - volatility characteristics [115][116].

Group 1: A-shares Market - The A-share market saw significant movement today, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3674-point mark shortly after opening, indicating a potential acceleration in new capital entering the market [6] - Trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.18 trillion yuan, marking the fourth occurrence since 2025 where trading volume surpassed this threshold, reflecting heightened trading activity [6] - The market remains structurally diverse, with a mix of stocks rising and falling, but notable gains were seen in the optical module sector, with related ETFs experiencing substantial increases [8] Group 2: Global Market Context - The core focus today was on global markets, particularly following the release of the U.S. CPI data, which was lower than expected, raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut to over 95% [10] - Major global indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached all-time highs, while the Nikkei 225 also hit a historical peak, reflecting a broad rally in risk assets across major economies [10] - The past year has been characterized by a global easing cycle and expansive fiscal policies in major economies, which have been pivotal in driving the rebound in risk assets [12][13] Group 3: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market's performance was influenced by the elevated expectations of a U.S. rate cut, benefiting several major internet companies that saw significant stock price increases [16] - Tencent Music reported a 33% year-on-year increase in net profit, leading to a stock price surge of over 15%, highlighting strong earnings performance in the tech sector [16] - However, the electric vehicle sector lagged, with notable declines in stocks like NIO and XPeng, indicating sector-specific challenges despite overall market gains [16]