纯碱早报 2025-12-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 每日观点 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 主要逻辑和风险点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1115元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1133元/吨，基差为-18元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存153.86万吨，较前一周减少3.07%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-8） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：焦煤供应增速缓慢，煤矿报价陆续下调后，出货有所好转。下游采购节奏放缓，市场心态 偏弱，加之近期线上竞拍回调情况较多，炼焦煤支撑力度较低，影响主产地炼焦煤市场成交价仍在小幅 探降。整体看当前市场谨慎观望居多，部分高价煤种或将受库存压力仍有回调预期；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差30；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：焦钢企业采购较为谨慎，且钢材价格近日虽有反弹，但钢厂仍 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 | 交割月份 | 前結構 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 培植参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2512 | 22805 | 22850 | 23265 | 22830 | 23265 | 23075 | 460 | 270 | 3285 | 37904.45 | 5760 | -1240 | | 26 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月5日 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.61%，环比增加.420个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.09%，环比减少0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.8%，环比减少1.40个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.93%，环比增加.860个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为78.03%，环比持平.高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价格占优； 当前需求或持续低迷。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-880.71元/吨，亏损环比增加3.80%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 1、基本面: 偏空。 464.69元/吨，亏损环比减少9.00%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1860.95元/吨，利润环比减少 2.00%，低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 2、基差: 12月04日，华东SG-5价为4510元/吨，01合约基差为10元/吨，现货升水期货。 中性。 3、库存: 厂内库存为32.264万吨，环比增加2.28%，电石法厂库为24.939万吨，环比增加3.57%， ...

不锈钢 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘20均线上方小幅震荡运行。近期部分产能减产，部分货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价格 坚挺，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格有止跌迹象，大部分 维稳，小部分仍有回落，成本线重心维稳。不锈钢库存回升，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位， 过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货120400，基差2640，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253116，+126，上交所仓单35096，+2501，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论： ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price is expected to continue the volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2605 are all volatile, with the intraday view being weakly volatile [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Variety View Reference** - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all volatile, with the intraday view being weakly volatile. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the continuation of the steel price's volatile trend [2] - **Market Driving Logic** - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has declined, but the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, so the supply contraction is hard to sustain. Demand has weakened, high - frequency indicators remain at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved. The demand is expected to decline seasonally, putting pressure on the steel price. Although market sentiment has warmed up and the steel price has stabilized recently, there is no substantial improvement in the rebar's fundamentals under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upward driving force for the steel price is not strong [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. - The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4551 - 4599 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 355,560 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.83%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 133,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 880.71 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 464.69 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 9.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,925.95 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average [7]. 3.2.3 Basis - On December 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Factory inventory was 322,640 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.28%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 249,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 73,250 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. Social inventory was 527,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.35 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [7]. 3.2.5 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [7]. 3.2.6 Main Position - The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.2.7 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain weak [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trend of the PVC basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. 3.4.2 Volume and Position - The report shows the trading volume, price trend, and position changes of the main PVC futures contract [21]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - The report analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It includes the price, cost - profit, and production - related data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. 3.5.2 Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production by calcium carbide and ethylene methods [38][40]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC [42][45]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [56]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Related - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads in the ethylene method [58]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likelihood Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Likelihood factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits; negative factors are overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is strong supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [10][11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, with overall cost weakening. This week, supply pressure increases. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [7] - **Basis**: On December 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 13 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, a 2.28% increase month - on - month. Calcium carbide method factory inventory is 249,390 tons, a 3.57% increase; ethylene method factory inventory is 73,250 tons, a 1.87% decrease. Social inventory is 527,900 tons, a 0.22% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises are 5.35 days, a 0.94% increase [7] - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net short position, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: Production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4529 - 4577 [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including prices, spreads, inventories, downstream operating rates, and other data [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price [17] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract [20] - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the PVC futures main contract, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production volume, maintenance volume, etc. of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [37][39] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC [41][43][47] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55] - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [60]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The nickel price rebounded last week, with producers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious. Some production capacities have reduced output, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore remains firm, and ocean freight rates are stable. Indonesia's 2026 RKAB quota is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining flat and a small portion still declining. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are persistently high, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The conclusion is that the Shanghai nickel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are stable, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling, with most remaining flat. The cost line is stable, and stainless steel inventories are rising. The conclusion is that the stainless steel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices**: From November 28 to December 1, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose from 117,010 to 117,850, an increase of 840; the London nickel futures rose from 14,820 to 14,875, an increase of 55; the stainless steel futures main contract rose from 12,355 to 12,445, an increase of 90. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose from 119,500 to 119,750, an increase of 250; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose from 121,900 to 122,150, an increase of 250; 1 imported nickel rose from 117,550 to 117,750, an increase of 200; nickel beans rose from 119,600 to 119,800, an increase of 200. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained flat in major regions [10]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,782 tons, with the futures inventory at 33,309 tons, an increase of 987 tons and a decrease of 476 tons respectively. On December 1, the London nickel inventory was 254,364, a decrease of 396 from November 28; the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722, a decrease of 587; the total inventory was 287,086, a decrease of 983 [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. On December 1, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 62,998, a decrease of 121 from November 28 [17][18]. Cost - related - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices**: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) decreased from 883 to 882 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,488 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel is 12,823 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,272 yuan [24]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price is 119,116 yuan per ton [27].