交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年8月，全 球锌板产量为115.07万吨，消费量为117.17万吨，供应短缺2.1万吨。2025 年1-8月，全球锌板产量为908.85万吨，消费量为936.98万吨，供应短缺 28.13万吨。2025年8月，全球锌矿产量为106.96万吨。2025年1-8月，全球 锌矿产量为844.57万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22400，基差-165；偏空。 3、库存：11月3日LME锌库存较上日减少1475吨至35300吨，11月3日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少125吨至67649吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%; the main basis was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.68% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia-alkali method was -92.40 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co-production method was -199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.94% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, including 41 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there was significant new production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons, and 100 tons actually put into production in 2025 [21] 3.4 Demand for Soda Ash - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [24] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, and the operating rate was 76.35%, showing signs of stabilization [27] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [2] 3.5 Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [34] 3.6 Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided a supply-demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the expected benefits are realized, and the steel price fluctuates and falls [1] - Rebar supply and demand are both rising. Supply has reached a relatively high level this year with high inventory and increasing pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, with limited improvement space. The steel price has rebounded recently due to a good macro - atmosphere and cost support, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, the steel price will be under pressure again [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the expected benefits are realized, and the steel price fluctuates and falls [1] Market Driving Logic - Rebar supply and demand are both increasing. Supply has reached a relatively high level this year with high inventory and increasing pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited and the positive effect is not strong. The steel price has rebounded recently due to a good macro - atmosphere and cost support, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, the steel price will be under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - position advantage of asphalt futures 2601 contract has increased, and the adjustment pressure has weakened. The expansion of net long positions and more short - to - long operations than long - to - short operations indicate that the long - position is strengthening, and it is expected that the asphalt price will stabilize and strengthen after a short - term adjustment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance of Asphalt Futures 2601 Contract**: Yesterday, the contract showed a pattern of increasing volume, decreasing positions, weakening in shock, and a slight decline. The price center dropped slightly to below 3275 yuan/ton, with the lowest reaching 3252 yuan/ton. The closing price fell 0.21% to 3274 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 1242 to 196026, a decline of 0.63% [2] - **Change in Positions of Top 20 Long and Short Seats**: The positions of the top 20 long and short seats showed a pattern of both long and short increasing. The long positions increased by 2924 to 143435, and the short positions increased by 2848 to 141415. The net long positions expanded to 2020 [2] - **Details of Long - Position Increase in Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, 8 increased long positions. 3 seats increased more than 500 long positions, including Guotai Junan Futures (3168), Huayuan Futures (1487), and Dongzheng Futures (841). 2 seats increased between 100 - 500 long positions, and the remaining 3 increased less than 100 [2] - **Details of Short - Position Increase in Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, 11 increased short positions. 4 seats increased more than 500 short positions, including Zheshang Futures (3272), Qiankun Futures (2457), Nanhua Futures (675), and Guolian Futures (1083). 5 seats increased between 100 - 500 short positions, and the remaining 2 increased less than 100 [3] - **Long - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations**: Only 1 seat (Huatai Futures) carried out long - to - short operation, while 4 seats (Guotai Junan Futures, Dongzheng Futures, Galaxy Futures, Zhongtai Futures) carried out short - to - long operations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, with a 2.05% MoM decrease in PVC production in September 2025 and a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease in the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - Downstream overall开工率 increased by 0.27 percentage points to 49.86%, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - Both the calcium carbide method and ethylene method are in a loss - making state, with the loss increasing by 1.30% MoM. The double - ton spread profit increased by 0.80% MoM, but all are lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][7]. - The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4747 - 4803. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream overall开工率 was 49.86%, a 0.27 percentage point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - **Cost Side**: The calcium carbide method profit was - 722.72 yuan/ton, with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The ethylene method profit was - 560.46 yuan/ton, also with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,323.25 yuan/ton, with a 0.80% MoM increase in profit, lower than the historical average [6][7]. - **Overall Judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish [6][9]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including various price indicators, month - to - month spreads, inventory data, downstream开工率, and profit data [14][15]. 3. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, along with the PVC East China market price and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - **Volume and Price Analysis**: Shows the volume, price, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the historical spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23][24]. 4. PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][27][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the profit, cost, production volume, and apparent consumption of paste resin. Also, it analyzes relevant data in the real estate and infrastructure fields [44][45][46][48][50][52][54]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory data of the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [55][56]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene method [57][58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [60][61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the oscillatory upward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5. The core logic is the strong cost support [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Table 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is oscillatory and slightly stronger, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and slightly weaker. It is suggested to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that strong costs support the oscillatory recovery of steel prices [1] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills have increased production, with weekly output rising from a low level and high inventory, so the supply side offers limited benefits. Meanwhile, rebar demand has seasonally recovered, with high - frequency demand indicators rising from a low level, but still at a low level compared to the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, so the strength of the peak season remains in doubt. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited, and the pressure to reduce inventory remains. The steel price is still prone to pressure. The relative positives are the warm market sentiment and the cost support brought by strong raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the production and sales data released by Steelhome today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. Market sentiment is positive, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, but the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited under the situation of increasing supply and demand, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that market sentiment is positive, and the steel market is volatile and stable [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the weekly output has rebounded with relatively high inventory, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has continued to improve seasonally, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, so the quality of the peak season is questionable. Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and the steel price is still prone to pressure [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为76.57%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量31.628万吨，环比减少0.45%,乙烯 法企业产量15.036万吨，环比增加0.47%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.86%，环比增加.27个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为35.87%，环比增加.61个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为41.2%，环比增 加.2个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2512 will show a trend of fluctuating upward, with the LME zinc inventory and warrants continuing to decline while the SHFE warrants remaining at a high level [2][19]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,310, and the basis was 0, showing a neutral stance [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,547 tons to 68,271 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Market Trend**: The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, suggesting a bullish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main players held a net short position, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 October 28 Zinc Futures Market Quotes - The trading volume of zinc futures on October 28 was 201,703 lots, with a total trading value of 2.25645709 billion yuan. The open interest was 209,097 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots [3]. 3.3 October 28 Domestic Spot Market Quotes - **Zinc Concentrate**: The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/thousand tons, both remaining unchanged [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,260 - 22,360 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,180 - 22,280 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,275 - 22,375 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,305 - 22,405 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 16 - 27, 2025) - As of October 27, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 164,700 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to October 20 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to October 23 [5]. 3.5 October 28 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipt Report - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the SHFE on October 28 were 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons. Among them, Guangdong had 38,470 tons, and Tianjin had 29,801 tons [7]. 3.6 October 28 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, with registered warrants of 28,425 tons and cancelled warrants of 6,825 tons, accounting for 19.36% [8]. 3.7 October 28 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - The prices of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, it was 17,390 yuan/ton; in Chenzhou, it was 17,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 October 28 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 21,970 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 September 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. 3.10 October 28 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade varied by region, ranging from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The imported processing fee for 48% grade was 105 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. 3.11 October 28 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512, the total trading volume of members was 204,047 lots, an increase of 23,222 lots. The total long position was 83,603 lots, an increase of 523 lots, and the total short position was 78,964 lots, a decrease of 114 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4718 - 4774. The cost is generally weakening, and the supply pressure has decreased this week, with a slight increase in production schedule expected next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The report suggests continuous attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9]. 3. Summary According to Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with no MoM change. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and production schedule is expected to increase slightly next week with fewer planned maintenance [6]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.5%, unchanged MoM, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [6]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2303.25 yuan/ton, a 1.00% MoM decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 333,800 tons, a 7.35% MoM decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,100 tons, a 9.02% MoM decrease. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 81,700 tons, a 1.80% MoM decrease. Social inventory was 554,700 tons, a 0.26% MoM decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a 6.66% MoM decrease, showing a neutral signal [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different varieties and regions, such as the price of the 01 contract, inter - month spreads, and various inventory levels [13]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The data shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the spot price in East China and the futures price [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [22]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Materials - **Blue Coke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of blue coke in Shenmu over multiple years [25]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the mainstream price in Shaanxi, cost - profit in Wuhai, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide over multiple years [28]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It presents the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt over multiple years [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory of caustic soda over multiple years [32][35]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC's calcium carbide method and ethylene method over multiple years [36][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC. It also presents the cost - profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and some macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][44][50]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC over multiple years [54]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [56]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from August 2024 to September 2025 [59].