最新消息显示，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）竞逐美联储主席一职的提名，正遭到一些与特朗普关 系密切的高层人士的阻力。 消息人士最新表示，哈西特原本已经是下任美联储主席的头号候选人，但有人担心哈西特与特朗普关系过于密切——讽刺的 是，正是这一点最初让他成为接替鲍威尔的头号热门人选。 这种阻力，或许可以解释为何原定于12月初进行的候选人面试被取消；而在上周，特朗普政府又重新为美联储前理事凯文·沃 什（Kevin Warsh）安排了面试。 沃什目前是斯坦福大学访问学者，他于2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。2017年，特朗普曾就美联储主席一职面试沃 什，但最终选择了鲍威尔。 上周，特朗普当天在接受采访时说，沃什位列他心目中的名单前列，"沃什和哈西特两人都不错"。这番表态导致预测市场 Kalshi上押注哈西特胜出的概率大幅下滑。 尽管如此，截至周一，哈西特在Kalshi上仍以51%的概率领先，但已明显低于本月早些时候超过80%的高点；沃什的概率目前 约为41%，12月初时仅在11%左右。 知情人士称，这种"阻力"更多体现为对沃什的积极推举，而非直接批评哈西特。 上周四，在摩根 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its monetary policy, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2026 elections and the potential appointment of a new Fed Chair. Core Points and Arguments - **Federal Reserve Chair Candidates**: The list of candidates for the new Fed Chair has narrowed down to five individuals, with Kevin Hassett being the most likely choice according to market speculation [1][3][4]. - **Political Pressure for Rate Cuts**: President Trump has expressed a desire for the new Fed Chair to lower interest rates, indicating that this will be a test of their capabilities [3][5]. - **Current Economic Context**: The Fed is currently operating under a tight monetary policy, with federal funds rates above neutral levels, which is slowing economic growth [5][6]. - **Predictions for Rate Cuts**: It is anticipated that the Fed will lower rates to neutral or even lower before the midterm elections in November 2026, with a target range of 2.75%-3.00% by September 2026 [10][20]. - **Inflation Concerns**: There are concerns that rate cuts could lead to higher inflation expectations, which may counteract the intended effects of lowering long-term rates [11][12]. - **Impact of New Fed Chair**: The new Fed Chair is expected to align closely with the White House's agenda, particularly if they are a loyal supporter of Trump, which could lead to a more coordinated monetary policy [18][24]. - **Potential for Asset Purchases**: If long-term rates rise unexpectedly, the Fed may consider large-scale asset purchases to manage the yield curve [15][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Political Dynamics**: The potential for a majority of Trump loyalists on the Fed Board could significantly influence monetary policy decisions, especially if there are attempts to remove current board members [19][22][23]. - **Economic Policy Coordination**: The relationship between government policies aimed at controlling inflation and the Fed's monetary policy will be crucial, especially if inflation remains persistent [16][25]. - **Market Reactions**: The market's perception of the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation target will be closely tied to the actual rate cuts and the economic data leading up to the elections [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions and the political landscape influencing these decisions.

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with support from Trump and Jamie Dimon, increasing his nomination probability to 41% [1][5]. Group 1: Candidate Support and Probabilities - Trump stated that Warsh aligns with his views on monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [3]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed strong support for Warsh, calling him a "great Federal Reserve Chair" [7]. - The probability of Kevin Hassett's nomination has decreased from approximately 71% to 52%, while Warsh's has risen to 41% [5]. Group 2: Background of Kevin Warsh - Warsh, 55, is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University and has a background in investment banking at Morgan Stanley [9]. - He served as the Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 to 2006 and was a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [9]. - Warsh previously interviewed for the Federal Reserve Chair position during Trump's first term but was ultimately not selected [9].

美国总统特朗普提名沃什和哈塞特为美联储主席主要候选人。特朗普表示，凯文·哈塞特和凯文·沃什是 他领导美联储的首要人选，他预计下一任央行主席将在利率问题上征求他的意见。摩根大通首席执行官 杰米·戴蒙暗示支持前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。（智通财经） ...

美国总统特朗普周五表示，他倾向于提名前美联储理事凯文・沃什或国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞 特出任明年的美联储主席。"是的，我确实有这个想法。人选就是这两位凯文，我认为这两位凯文都 很出色。"特朗普称，他认为下一任美联储主席在制定利率水平时，应当与他协商。 ...

Group 1 - The core candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve is Kevin Warsh, as stated by President Trump during a media interview [1] - Trump has also mentioned Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate for the position, indicating both individuals are strong contenders [1] - Trump conducted a 45-minute interview with Warsh at the White House on December 10, and he is expected to announce the nominee in early 2026 [1] Group 2 - Trump expressed that the next Fed Chair should consult him on interest rate policies but is not required to follow his advice strictly [2] - Trump aims to lower the federal funds rate to 1% or even lower within a year to reduce the financing costs for the $30 trillion U.S. national debt [2] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 3.5% and 3.75% following a rate cut on December 10 [3] Group 3 - The term of the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will expire in May next year, and Trump's nominee will require confirmation from the Senate [3] - Despite Trump's long-standing criticism regarding interest rate cuts, Powell has maintained his position and emphasized the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [3] - The Federal Reserve's ability to independently set monetary policy is based on an agreement reached with the U.S. Treasury in 1951 [4]

美国总统特朗普周五表示，他倾向于提名前美联储理事凯文・沃什或国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特 出任明年的美联储主席。"是的，我确实有这个想法。人选就是这两位凯文，我认为这两位凯文都很出 色。"特朗普称，他认为下一任美联储主席在制定利率水平时，应当与他协商。（第一财经记者 樊志 菁） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market and survey respondents expect Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, to be nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, but most economists prefer other candidates and are concerned about the potential loss of Fed independence and a more dovish policy stance [1][1]. Group 1 - Market expectations indicate a nomination for Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman [1]. - Majority of economists express preference for alternative candidates [1]. - Concerns arise regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and a shift towards a more dovish policy stance [1].

中金研报称，基准情况下，哈塞特若成为新美联储主席或使美债利率和美元先下后上，整体利好美股。 从时间线上来看，2026年初特朗普公布新主席提名，对于哈塞特而言，需要先被提名为美联储理事并经 参议院确认，再提名为主席并再次得到确认，待到2026年5月现任主席鲍威尔届满后正式成为主席，最 早开始主导6月FOMC会议。明年一季度是新主席提名后开始影响市场预期的关键时期，若哈塞特届时 表态过于鸽派不排除美债利率和美元阶段性超预期下探的可能，但只要不大幅越界到"丧失独立性担 忧"的地步，预期兑现叠加美国经济修复，美债利率和美元可能转为上行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is expected to announce his nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair early next year, with Kevin Hassett emerging as the leading candidate, despite mixed reactions from the public and market participants [1][3][10]. Group 1: Nomination and Market Reactions - The prediction market "Kalshi" indicates an 86% probability for Hassett's nomination, with former Fed Governor Warsh and current Governor Bowman at 6% and 4% respectively [3]. - Following the news, the dollar briefly weakened, reflecting market uncertainty regarding Hassett's potential policies [3]. - Concerns have been raised about Hassett's close ties to Trump, with some fearing he may advocate for indiscriminate rate cuts, potentially leading to a sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries amid high inflation [3][9][13]. Group 2: Background of Kevin Hassett - Hassett, 63, has a strong academic background with degrees from Swarthmore College and the University of Pennsylvania, and has previously worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve [5]. - He has been a prominent figure in conservative economic circles, serving as a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and advising several Republican presidential candidates [5][6]. - Hassett played a key role in the Trump administration, particularly in the development of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, and has been a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell [8][9]. Group 3: Potential Economic Implications - If appointed, Hassett is expected to favor aggressive rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, which could weaken the dollar and benefit stock markets and physical asset sectors [9]. - However, there are fears that such policies could reignite inflation if demand outpaces productivity, especially with inflation indicators already above the Fed's 2% target [9][13]. - Market participants express concerns about Hassett's ability to maintain the Fed's independence, given his alignment with Trump's views and potential pressure to implement policies that may not align with economic fundamentals [12][14][16].