1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economy remains in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. Retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and inflation shows an "external hot, internal stable" pattern. Metal prices are rising rapidly, while the US stock market turns defensive and the US dollar index slightly declines. Oil prices continue to rebound [2]. - Domestically, exports and imports in December 2025 both exceeded expectations, showing a recovery in foreign demand and domestic imports. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market receives regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. - Precious metals continue to be strong due to factors such as the US inflation data boosting expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the potential shortage of physical supply. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5]. - The copper price shows a strong and volatile trend. Strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support, and the supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. Although the macro - environment is stable, high prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. - The zinc price fluctuates strongly. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. - The lead price's rebound space is limited. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - The tin price hits a new high, but there is a risk of adjustment at the high level. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. - The steel price fluctuates. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. - The iron ore price is under pressure to oscillate. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills [15]. - The coking coal and coke prices oscillate. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillate. China's soybean procurement is approaching the target, and the Brazilian harvest will increase supply. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. - The palm oil price oscillates. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation, but the improving export demand provides support [19][20]. 3. Summary of Each Section Macro - Overseas: The US is in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. In November, retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, driven by automobile and holiday - related consumption. PPI rose to 3% year - on - year, mainly due to energy prices, while core PPI was flat month - on - month. Metal prices rose rapidly, the US stock market turned defensive, the US dollar index declined slightly, and oil prices rebounded [2]. - Domestic: In December 2025, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended to 2027, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market received regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. Precious Metals - The price of precious metals continued to be strong on Wednesday, with gold and silver hitting new highs for three consecutive days. The US CPI data in December boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions and potential supply shortages pushed up the prices. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as forced short - covering [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the Shanghai copper futures fluctuated at a high level, and the LME copper price stabilized above $13,000. The spot market trading improved, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks on a small scale. The US economic activity is expanding moderately, and the strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support. The supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 24,665 yuan/ton, down 0.32%, and the LME aluminum price closed at $3,189.5/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price increased, and the inventory rose. The macro - environment is stable, but high prices suppress downstream consumption. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and strongly at night, and the LME zinc price rose. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot premium continues to decline. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and rose at night, and the LME lead price rose. The consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the lead price's rebound space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Tin - On Wednesday, the Shanghai tin futures hit the daily limit for the second time this week and continued to be strong at night, breaking through 440,000 yuan/ton. The LME tin price rose by 9.88%. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, the steel futures fluctuated. The spot market trading volume was 88,000 tons. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly, and the profit was in a loss state. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated and slightly adjusted. The spot market trading volume was 1.23 million tons. The cost of steel mills decreased slightly, and the loss was gradually reduced. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills. It is expected to be under pressure to oscillate [15]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Wednesday, the coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The price of coking coal increased, and the price of coke decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants increased, and the inventory of refined coal rose. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.9%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 1.46%. A US exporter reported selling 334,000 tons of soybeans to China. The Brazilian harvest is underway, and the supply will increase. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 0.55%. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy and will maintain the B40 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation. However, the improving export demand provides support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as policy changes, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, showing different trends and characteristics in different sectors. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: There are differences between bulls and bears, and the market is volatile. Short - term market is affected by policy and may fluctuate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Suggestions include short - term grid operations, IM\IC 2606 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buy option strategies [18][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The performance is differentiated, and the trend is unclear. Short - term market sentiment is repaired, but the odds of going long are limited. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions in batches, and consider shorting the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is obvious, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to have a bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [26][28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are falling, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and domestic sugar can be considered for low - buying and high - selling in the range [29][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations and Indonesia's policy, the oils market is falling. It is recommended to have a short - term oscillating view on oils and try shorting palm oil at high prices [34][37]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot is stable. It is recommended to have a bullish view on outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, and short - term long on 07 corn after correction [38][40][41]. - **Hogs**: Supply pressure increases, but the market is still strong. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell wide - straddle options [41][42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on 05 peanuts at low prices and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. - **Eggs**: Demand improves, and prices are stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the far - month 5 - contract at low prices [46][49]. - **Apples**: Cold - storage inventory is low, and prices are firm. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 5 - month contract long positions and short the 10 - month contract at high prices [50][52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to go long on Zheng cotton at low prices [57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel is turning to inventory accumulation, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and bullish view, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [61][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish at high prices [64][65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish view and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [68][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The tariff ruling fails again, and the previous trading logic continues. It is recommended to hold long positions near the 5 - day moving average and use a collar option bullish strategy [71][74][75]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical tensions lead to high - level oscillations. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and be cautious about going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced [75][77][78]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations increase, but the bullish trend remains. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [80][82][83]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals increases price fluctuations. The price is under pressure due to factors such as potential inventory increase and cost decline [84][86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It is oscillating at a high level, and it is necessary to be vigilant about market sentiment cooling. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the oscillation [87][90][91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to continue to oscillate at a high level with the sector [92][93]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the impact of capital. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors hold short positions with strict position control [94][96][97]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to capital sentiment. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [98][100][101]. - **Nickel**: Indonesian remarks stimulate price increases. It is recommended to have a bullish view at low prices [102][103][104]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long after correction and stabilization [104][105][107]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the range. The medium - term demand is weakening [108]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to factors such as policy and market sentiment [109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The position is decreasing, and there may be a correction. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [111][115][116]. - **Tin**: Bulls are enthusiastic, and prices reach a new high. It is recommended to be cautious about high - level fluctuations [116][118][119]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The second - stage negotiation of the Palestine - Israel issue is in progress, and prices will continue to decline in the second half of January. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct a 6 - 10 positive arbitrage [121][122]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Continue to pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a wide - range oscillating view and pay attention to the Iran event [123][124][125]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil cost fluctuations increase, and supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and hold the BU4 - 6 positive arbitrage [125][128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks increase fluctuations. It is recommended to be vigilant about risks and hold the FU59 positive arbitrage [130][132]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH continues to decline. It is recommended to add short positions on TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell long - term rolling out - of - the - money call options [133][136]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish and long - term bearish view [137][138][139]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and cost support strengthens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and conduct a 3,5 - contract positive arbitrage [140][141][142]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and styrene short - stops boost the rise. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term and conduct an arbitrage of short pure benzene and long styrene [142][143][144]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell call options [144][146]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand weakens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [146][147][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: Prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [148][149][150]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to have a bullish view [151][153]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions on L and PP 2605 contracts and sell the PP2605 put 6100 contract [154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices are weakening. It is recommended to have a bearish view [156][157]. - **Soda Ash**: This week, it shows a wide - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to short at an appropriate time and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month at a high level [158][161]. - **Glass**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to wait and short at an appropriate time and conduct an arbitrage of short glass and long soda ash [162][163][164]. - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [164][165][166]. - **Logs**: The spot rebounds slightly. It is recommended to go long in small quantities and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [167][168][169]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The rebound of cultural paper is weak. It is recommended to wait and sell OP2602 - C - 4200 options [170][171]. - **Natural Rubber**: Global automobile sales slow down slightly. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU 05 contract and hold long positions on the NR 03 contract [172][175]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Crude oil freight increases marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 03 contract [176][178].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding investment strategies and advice [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices have reached a record high. Supply may increase as Myanmar's tin mine复产 progresses, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and options are recommended for trading [2][31][35]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal trading in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [3][59]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [4][74]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: A - shares were volatile at a high level. The TMT sector was hot, while the large - finance sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis of some contracts changed [5][6]. - **News**: The margin ratio for margin trading has been adjusted, and overseas, the US is considering responses to the Iranian situation. A - share trading volume continued to increase, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A - shares may have limited downward space after a pull - back. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH appropriately. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yield of some bonds decreased [8]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 2122 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, but the central bank's long - term investment may stabilize short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a short - term oscillating situation. It is recommended to continue to wait and see on a single - side strategy and tend to steepen the curve on a curve strategy [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed consumption and inflation resilience. The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic improvement, and the dollar index was stable. Precious metals generally rose, with gold and silver reaching new highs [11][13]. - **Outlook**: The US economy and employment are weak. Geopolitical risks drive capital to allocate precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to have a higher price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [13][14]. Shipping (Container Shipping Index - European Line) - **Index Performance**: The SCFIS European line index and some shipping rates increased, while the SCFI composite index decreased slightly [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container capacity increased, and demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated upwards, but the spot price is in a downward cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are accumulating. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as US inflation data and the situation in Venezuela. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [16][19]. - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, and the futures price oscillates widely. The core contradiction is between policy expectations and a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamental situation is under pressure, with increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended not to chase the price and consider long positions after a pull - back [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The price center has shifted upwards, and the spot premium has decreased. Supply is affected by mine shortages and smelter production cuts, and demand is suppressed by high prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long term and hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [28][31]. - **Tin**: The price has reached a record high. Supply may increase, and demand shows regional differences. It is recommended to wait and see [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand varies in different sectors. The market is affected by Indonesian policies and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to have a bullish view [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates strongly, driven by raw material costs. Supply pressure eases slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to expect a strong - oscillating trend [39][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price oscillates widely. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand has some resilience. Social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [43][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price oscillates, with support at 48,000 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillates strongly. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to production cut implementation [48][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation phase, and steel prices oscillate. Spot prices are stable to weak, costs are rising, and production is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in January [50][52]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating. The futures price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand has some support. It is recommended to trade within a range [53][54]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [55][59]. - **Coke**: The price oscillates. After the fourth price cut, the market is stable. Supply and demand are improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [60][64]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a low level, and demand has some support from steelmaking and non - steel sectors. It is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a neutral - to - low level, and demand has support from steelmaking. Manganese ore prices are strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [67][70]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The auction premium is limited, and soybean meal oscillates. The US soybean supply and demand situation affects the market, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [71][73]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [74][75]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. Northeast China has a strong reluctance to sell, and downstream demand for restocking exists. Policy auctions are ongoing. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy implementation [76][78]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Brazilian and Indian production situations affect the market, and domestic sales are affected by the Spring Festival [79][80]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillates at a low level, and the domestic cotton price stops falling and stabilizes. The US cotton supply and demand situation and domestic inventory and sales affect the market [81][83]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable to rising, and the market digestion speed is acceptable. Supply is in an oversupply situation, and demand is supported by the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of various oils and fats oscillate. Palm oil is affected by inventory pressure, soybean oil is affected by the US - Iran relationship and supply, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to price trends [86][88]. - **Jujubes**: The futures price rebounds, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies and test the support at 9000 yuan/ton [89][90]. - **Apples**: The futures price is strong, driven by market sentiment. Short - term factors support the price, but long - term consumption may be affected. It is recommended to use long positions with put - option protection [91]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and have limited downward space in the medium term [92][93]. - **PTA**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and have a low - long strategy in the medium term [94]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to follow raw materials and oscillate. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and shrink the processing fee on a high level [95]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply and demand are both decreasing in January. It is expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and expect the processing fee to oscillate within a certain range [96][97]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 yuan for EG2605, do reverse arbitrage for EG5 - 9, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory. Demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread [99]. - **Styrene**: The price is short - term strong but has limited upward space. Supply is tight in the short term, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for EB03 and shrink the processing fee [100][101]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3][102][103]. - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory pressure has eased. It is recommended to hold PDH profit - expanding positions [103][105]. - **Methanol**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [106][107]. - **PVC**: The price is affected by export policies. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling positions [108][109]. - **Urea**: The price center has shifted upwards. Supply is high, but agricultural demand in the Su - Wan region has increased. It is expected to be strong in the short term [110][111]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: The price is strong. Supply is decreasing, and demand has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price oscillates within a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [116][118]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Cost is rising, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and do arbitrage between BR2603 and NR2603 [119][120][121].

张尧浠：美零售及PPI利空、金价日内回撤仍视为多头机会 上交易日周三(1月14日)：国际黄金反弹收涨，收复周二跌幅，再度刷新历史高点，维持着多头动力，暗示后市看涨前景良好，下方仍可依托5日或10日均 线支撑进行逢低看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市微幅高开于4588.21美元/盎司，就此即刻作为日内低点，并随后反弹走强，但日内持续受阻于4640美元一线，并在美盘时段频繁 过山车，微幅突破阻力录得日内高点4642.63美元后，仍表现遇阻，最终再度阻力回撤，收于4626.26美元，相对周二收盘价4586.43美元，日振幅56.2美 元，收涨39.83美元，涨幅0.87%。 周线级别，金价上周再度走强收复前景跌幅，减弱了其阴包阳的见顶看空形态，同时本周再度走强拉升，走势也持稳运行在5-10周均线上方，布林带也继 续向上延伸，看涨前景加大，短期将有望触及4700美元关口位置。 影响上，日内受地缘政治等热点，以及特朗普政府对美联储的攻击，继续促使黄金避险资产走强。但由于美国11月零售销售和生产者物价指数（PPI）表 现强劲，而限制了金价多头的进一步走强，而在阻力附近有所受阻。 展望今日周四(1月15日)：国际黄金亚市开 ...

从中长期看，白银价格的核心上涨逻辑依然稳固，业内依然维持看涨的主流判断。瞿瑞认为，光伏、新 能源等领域对白银的需求将为银价提供坚实的中长期支撑。夏莹莹也表示，当前经济周期、货币政策周 期与通胀预期等宏观层面的因素将对银价构成利好，持续的市场避险需求以及白银现货市场供应紧张的 现状，也将共同支撑白银价格。 编辑：张瑶 2025年至今，白银价格持续上涨且波动加剧。2025年初，现货白银从约每盎司29美元起步，在9月后涨 势加速，并于年末一度突破每盎司80美元，全年累计涨幅约148%。进入2026年，银价上行进一步提 速，半个月内涨幅已超25%。 专家普遍认为短期内白银价格波动性将显著加剧。瞿瑞表示，白银价格创新高后，往往会因短期资金的 获利了结行为而面临回调压力。南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹认为，短期内白银波动率将 增加，其价格不排除进一步上冲每盎司100美元的可能。 转自：经济参考报 新华财经北京1月15日电（记者 倪润琢）1月14日，白银价格再次迎来重大突破，截至18时，纽约白银 期货主力合约价格与伦敦现货白银价格均涨至每盎司90美元左右。国内方面，上海期货交易所白银主力 合约报收于22763元／千 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices surged to a new historical high of $92 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and favorable U.S. economic data, with a year-to-date increase of 29% [2][3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rise in silver prices is attributed to increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S. and Israeli threats against Iran [2]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was in line with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below the anticipated 2.7% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's potential for further monetary easing is supported by stable core inflation data, which is favorable for silver prices [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Structure - Current silver inventory in London stands at 27,817.61 tons, with a portion held by funds, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) silver inventory has decreased by approximately 500 tons over the past month [4][5]. - The silver-to-gold ratio is nearing 50, indicating that silver may still be undervalued compared to historical averages [4]. Group 3: Futures Market Adjustments - CME announced changes to margin requirements for silver futures, adjusting them to a percentage of the contract's nominal value, which could increase the financial burden on short positions [6][7]. - A new 100-ounce silver futures contract is set to be introduced in February 2026, aimed at increasing market participation and liquidity, with cash settlement instead of physical delivery [7]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup has raised its price forecast for silver to $100 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and persistent shortages in the physical market [8]. - Despite the bullish outlook, the silver market is characterized by high volatility, with potential for significant price fluctuations [8][10]. - Investors are advised to monitor geopolitical developments and U.S. trade policies regarding silver, as these factors could lead to substantial price movements [9][10].

贵金属市场热度持续攀升。 1月14日，现货与期货市场同步上攻，黄金、白银齐创历史新高，白银更首次站上90美元/盎司。 现货市场方面，截至发稿，伦敦金现日内涨幅0.99%，报4631.42美元/盎司，盘中最高触及4639.723美 元/盎司，创历史新高；伦敦银现攻势更猛，日内飙升3.64%，首次站上90美元/盎司整数关口，并上探 91.1551美元。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4631.420 | | | +45.420 +0.99% | | IDC USD 16:43:21 | | | 8 | | 卖一 | 4632.070 | | | | 头一 | 4631.420 | | | | 总量 | 0 | 现手 | 0 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | 4586.000 | | 最高 | 4639.723 | 最低 | 4586.000 | | 均价 | | 振幅 | 1.17% | | 外盘 | 0 | 内盘 | 0 | | 昨结 | 4586.000 | 昨夜 | 4586.000 | | 涨停 | 0.000 | 跌停 | 0 ...

智通财经APP获悉，得益于市场波动加剧刺激客户交易活动，美国银行(BAC.US)交易部门在2025年第 四季度表现强劲，推动该行当季业绩超出市场预期。财报显示，美国银行Q4营收同比增长7%至283.7亿 美元，好于市场预期的277.6亿美元;按完全可比税前口径计算的净利息收入（NII FTE）同比增长10%至 157.5亿美元，好于市场预期的154.8亿美元。净利润为76.5亿美元，同比增长12%;摊薄后每股收益为 0.98美元，同样好于市场预期。 美国银行的业绩为外界进一步观察美国大型银行在特朗普重返白宫第一年的经营状况提供了观察窗口。 摩根大通(JPM.US)周二公布的业绩同样超出分析师预期。交易业务推动了整体表现，尽管投行业务费 用意外下滑。该行高管预计，随着交易储备充足、此前推迟活动的企业客户重返市场，2026年的并购和 融资活动将回暖。 自美国总统特朗普去年宣布对全球贸易伙伴加征关税以来，市场波动持续加剧。这对美国银行及华尔街 其他同行的市场业务而言是利好消息，因为在投资者重新配置资产的过程中，客户交易活动显著增加。 此外，对美联储降息的预期也进一步提振了交易活动。 与此同时，投资者同样渴望从这些服 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.32%, S&P 500 futures down 0.42%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.63% [1] - The German DAX index is down 0.41%, while the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.26%, and the French CAC40 is up 0.03% [2][3] - WTI crude oil has increased by 1.19%, priced at $61.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil has also risen by 1.19%, priced at $66.25 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have shifted, with traders increasingly betting that the Fed will maintain rates throughout the year, influenced by recent labor market data and CPI indicating stable inflation [4] - A prominent investor predicts a potential 20% decline in the Dow Jones index by the end of the year, citing pressures on ordinary consumers due to high living costs [5] Debt Market Concerns - Morgan Stanley reports that the size of basis trading in US Treasuries has ballooned to approximately $1.5 trillion, necessitating close monitoring to avoid a repeat of market volatility seen in 2020 [6] Commodity Market Developments - Silver prices have surged nearly 4%, reaching $90.36 per ounce, with a peak at $91.56, driven by rising safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [7] - LME tin prices have reached a historical high of $51,675 per ton, reflecting a significant increase driven by Chinese investor interest in commodities [7] Company Earnings Reports - Bank of America reported Q4 net revenue of $28.37 billion, exceeding market expectations of $27.76 billion, and net interest income of $15.75 billion, also above expectations [8] - Wells Fargo's Q4 revenue was $21.29 billion, falling short of the expected $21.64 billion, with net interest income of $12.33 billion, below the anticipated $12.43 billion [9] - Tesla is shifting its Full Self-Driving (FSD) sales model to a subscription service, effective February 14, significantly lowering the entry cost for consumers [9] - Netflix is exploring an all-cash acquisition of Warner Bros. to expedite the deal process amid competitive pressures [10] - Citigroup is set to lay off approximately 1,000 employees as part of a broader plan to reduce its workforce by 20,000 by the end of the year [10] Pharmaceutical Innovations - Amgen's experimental weight loss drug MariTide shows promise with a monthly injection regimen that helps patients maintain weight loss over two years, contrasting with the more frequent injections of existing weight loss medications [11]