炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 7月9日，A股午后震荡回落，沪指尾盘翻绿重返3500点下方，深证成指尾盘亦翻绿；港股走势疲弱，恒 生指数跌逾1%，恒生科技指数跌近2%。 具体来看，沪指早盘震荡上扬，一度突破3500点，续创年内新高，午后震荡回落尾盘翻绿，3500点得而 复失；科创50、北证50指数一度跌超1%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.13%报3493.05点，深证成指跌0.06%报 10581.8点，创业板指涨0.16%报2184.67点，科创50指数跌0.89%，沪深北三市合计成交15276亿元，较 此前一日增加近530亿元。 | < W | | | 上证指数(000001) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 07-09 15:00:09 | | | | | | 3493.05 | | 昨收 | 3497.48 | 成交额 | 5959.6365 | | -4.43 | | -0.13% 六十 | 3498.72 | 成交量 | 523.9亿 | | 上 涨 | 830 | 本 品 | 108 | 下 跌 | ...

7月9日，A股午后震荡回落，沪指尾盘翻绿重返3500点下方，深证成指尾盘亦翻绿；港股走势疲弱，恒生指数跌逾1%，恒生科技指数跌近2%。 银行板块强势 银行板块今日再度走强，截至收盘，厦门银行涨逾4%，渝农商行、张家港行涨约3%。值得注意的是，工商银行、农业银行等盘中均创出新高。 | 代码 | 名称 | � | 涨幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 买价 | 总量 卖价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601187 | 厦门银行 | | 4.08 | 7.65 | 0.30 | 7.65 | 7.66 319988 | | 601077 渝衣商行 | | R | 3.30 | 7.51 | 0.24 | 7.51 | 7.52 102.6万 | | 002839 张家港行 | | R | 2.98 | 4.84 | 0.14 | 4.84 | 4.85 825314 | | 001227 | 兰州银行 | | 2.27 | 2.70 | 0.06 | 2.69 | 2.70 139.2万 | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | R | 2.1 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 药品产业链周度系列（七） 借船 or 造船，中国创新药全球竞风流 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近年来，中国药企原研能力持续增强，越来越多高质量的创新成果频频登上国际舞台，推动国 产创新药加速"出海"。当前主要有"造船出海"和"借船出海"两种路径：在"造船出海"方 面，百济神州和传奇生物通过自主开展海外临床试验并成功获得 FDA 上市批准，实现了关键性 突破；在"借船出海"方面，BD 授权和 NewCo 模式逐步成为中国 Biotech 企业实现早期管线 价值转化、对接国际资源、降低全球化风险的关键路径，相关交易金额与频次持续攀升，标志 着中国创新药正加速走向全球，带动创新药企实现价值跃升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 徐晓欣 张楠 万梦蝶 刘长洪 SAC：S0490524030005 SAC：S0490522120001 SAC：S0490524070006 SAC：S0490525050001 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

艾迪药业688488 时间: 2025年7月9日星期三 55.22分综合得分 较强 趋势方向 主力成本分析 14.02 元 当日主力成本 14.26 元 元 5日主力成本 13.90 元 20日主力成本 12.59 60日主力成本 周期内涨跌停 过去一年内该股 涨停 0次 跌停 0 次 北向资金数据 | 持股量203.74万股 | 占流通比0.48% | | --- | --- | | 昨日净买入6.43万股 | 昨日增仓比0.015% | | 5日增仓比0.217% | 20日增仓比0.28% | 技术面分析 14.50 短期压力位 14.15 短期支撑位 14.86 中期压力位 12.88 中期支撑位 股价跌破短期支撑位，短线观望为宜； 目前中期趋势不慎明朗，静待主力资金选择方向 K线形态 ★十字星★ 有转向意味,注意股价位置在顶部还是底部 ★长十字★ 注意在顶部还是底部 资金流数据 2025年07月09日的资金流向数据方面 | 主力资金净流出15.67万元 | | --- | | 占总成交额0% | | 超大单净流入85.10万元 | | 大单净流出100.77万元 | | 散户资金净流出273.52万 ...

Overview - The article discusses the valuation of innovative drugs, focusing on the choice between absolute and relative valuation methods, and the factors influencing these valuations, such as target patient population, market share, and drug pricing [2]. Valuation Methods - The innovative drug industry is characterized by patent protection periods, which allow for significant pricing power and excess profits during the patent period, but face steep competition post-patent expiration [4]. - The absolute valuation method, specifically the DCF model, is deemed unsuitable for innovative drugs due to the high uncertainty in predicting revenues, profit margins, and capital expenditures [5]. - Relative valuation methods such as P/B, P/E, P/DCF, and P/S are explored, with P/S being highlighted as the most stable and practical for innovative drug companies due to the predictability of sales [6][9]. Commercial Forecasting Model - A robust commercial model is essential for predicting sales, with methodologies like those used by Frost & Sullivan being noted for their representativeness [11]. Patient Population - The starting point for predicting sales is the patient population, which can be assessed through prevalence and incidence rates. Prevalence reflects the total number of existing cases, while incidence measures new cases over a specific period [15][16]. - Disease subtyping is crucial for accurate market predictions, as different subtypes may respond to different treatments [17]. - Treatment rates indicate the proportion of patients receiving effective treatment, which can vary based on economic and healthcare access factors [20]. Market Share - Market share predictions depend on several factors, including target competition, real-world efficacy of drugs, treatment sequencing, commercialization capabilities, and accessibility policies [21]. - The competitive strength of drug targets and the real-world efficacy of drugs significantly influence market share [23][25]. - The order of drug usage and expert consensus play a role in determining market share, with first-line treatments generally being preferred [27][29]. - Commercialization capabilities vary among companies, impacting the sales outcomes of similar drugs [30]. Drug Pricing - Drug pricing is influenced by the initial price at launch, pricing in different countries, and price changes over time [35]. - The starting price is typically based on the annual cost of similar drugs, clinical benefits, and development costs [36]. - Price differences across countries highlight the importance of market access, with the U.S. generally having higher drug prices compared to other regions [37]. - Over time, drug prices may decrease in markets like China due to negotiations, while they may increase in the U.S. due to favorable protections for innovative drugs [39]. Product Sales Curve - The sales curve of a drug typically follows a pattern of market introduction, rapid growth, maturity, and decline, with effective commercialization strategies leading to faster growth [40]. - Historical data indicates that the median time to peak sales is approximately six years [42]. - Different drug types exhibit varying sales growth patterns, with small molecules often experiencing rapid rises and falls, while biologics tend to have steadier growth [44][45]. Data Objectivity/Uncertainty - The objectivity and uncertainty of data can vary significantly, especially in high-uncertainty scenarios where subjective assumptions may dominate [46].

与十年前"仿制为主"的形象相比，中国药企已经走到了"原创创新+出海授权"的新阶段。 追风交易台最新消息，高盛稍早前发布研报指出，创新药板块这波涨势背后的核心动力，是以"出海授权"为代表的中国创新药全球化浪潮。2025 年上半年，中国生物科技板块录得78%的强劲涨幅，显著跑赢恒生医疗指数（+41%）、MSCI中国（+18%）以及美股生技板块XBI（-6%）。 高盛认为，中国生物科技行业正在经历一次结构性重估，本轮大涨并非短期反弹。截至目前，中国生物科技公司整体市值仍仅为美国同行的 14%-15%，而其在全球创新贡献中的比重已接近33%。这意味着，中国创新药板块仍处于"价值洼地"阶段，全球资本重估才刚刚开始。 伴随中国药企在全球创新药管线中占比持续攀升，以及对前沿技术模式的深入布局，行业有望持续释放长期价值。 中国创新药正在向全球输出，但仍陷于"价值洼地" 中国在全球创新药体系中的角色，正在从"本土创新"向"全球输出"加速演变。 高盛数据显示，截至2025年上半年，中国贡献了全球50%的新进入人体临床的新药分子，并拥有约1/3的全球创新药在研管线。十年前，这一占比 仅为个位数。尤其是在ADC（抗体偶联药物）、Bs ...

金十数据7月9日讯，今日，港股三大指数低开后稍有回升，随后维持低位震荡。截至收盘。恒生指数收 跌1.06%，恒生科技指数收跌1.76%。创新药概念大幅走强，恒瑞医药(01276.HK)涨超15%，中国生物制 药(01177.HK)涨超10%；教育股午盘走强，中国东方教育(00667.HK)涨超3%；稀土概念尾盘回升，金力 永磁涨超2%；除此以外，水泥建材、生物医药、环保、石油等概念股收涨。黄金、稳定币、核电、有 色金属、芯片等概念股日内走弱。个股方面，蓝思科技(06613.HK)上市首日收涨9%，"周杰伦概念 股"巨星传奇(06683.HK)收涨94%，市值突破100亿港元；国泰君安国际(01788.HK)跌超5%。 港股收评：恒指收跌1.06%，创新药概念大幅走强 ...

证券代码：002923 证券简称：润都股份 珠海润都制药股份有限公司 答：公司始终秉持"规范、专业、发展"的理念，以专注铸就卓越，以技 术引领未来。积极推动绿色化和合成生物技术的应用，加速仿制药与创新 药的研发与上市。公司将顺应医药行业发展趋势，重点围绕心脑血管、消 化系统、解热镇痛、手术麻醉用药等领域，做优做强制剂产业，持续保持 独具特色的药物新剂型和肠溶、 缓控释制剂技术优势，加快高技术壁垒 仿制药和原创新药研发上市，拓展全渠道终端，打造立体品牌。 6、原料药沙坦类价格趋势？ 答：随着公司全球化销售网络的稳步推进，大客户项目持续转化落地，沙 坦类产品销量不断攀升，进一步夯实了公司沙坦类产品的市场竞争力；受 供需关系等多重因素影响，沙坦类产品市场竞争依然激烈，市场销售价格 仍在低位区间波动。 | 关于本次活动 是否涉及应披 | | | --- | --- | | | 无 | | 露重大信息的 | | | 说明 | | | 附件清单 | 无 | | （如有） | | | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 动类别 | □新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in the Chinese innovative drug sector, particularly through record-breaking business development (BD) transactions, exemplified by Rongchang Biopharma's partnership with Vor Biopharma, which underscores the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [3][4][30]. Group 1: Record-Breaking BD Transactions - Rongchang Biopharma announced a milestone international licensing agreement with Vor Biopharma for its innovative drug, Taitasip, with a total deal value of $4.23 billion, setting a new record for outbound licensing in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry [3][4]. - The deal includes a $45 million upfront payment, $80 million in warrants, and up to $4.105 billion in milestone payments, along with a royalty on future sales [3][4]. - Taitasip has shown strong commercial performance, with domestic sales exceeding 1.5 million units in 2024, representing a 95% year-on-year growth, making it a key driver of Rongchang Biopharma's revenue [5]. Group 2: 2025 as a Year of BD Growth - The article notes that 2025 is expected to be a significant year for innovative drug BD transactions, with multinational corporations (MNCs) in China already reaching $9.1 billion in upfront payments by June 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [7][8]. - The urgency for MNCs to engage in BD transactions is driven by the impending patent cliff, with over $100 billion in sales from major drugs set to lose patent protection in the next five years [12][13]. Group 3: Patent Cliff and MNC Strategies - The approaching patent cliff poses a substantial challenge for MNCs, necessitating the acquisition of innovative drugs to extend product lifecycles and mitigate revenue losses [12][13]. - The article lists several key drugs facing patent expiration, including Merck's Keytruda, which generated $25 billion in sales in 2023 and will lose patent protection in 2028 [14]. Group 4: Chinese Innovative Drugs' Competitive Edge - The performance of the Hong Kong innovative drug sector has been impressive, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF rising over 52% in 2025, reflecting the shift from a generic-following model to a focus on developing globally competitive innovative products [21]. - The article emphasizes that the core competitiveness of Chinese innovative drug companies lies in their ability to produce high-quality products, as evidenced by significant BD transactions from international firms like BMS and Pfizer, totaling over $17 billion in 2025 [24]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The ongoing BD boom in innovative drugs is seen as a strategic move by MNCs to navigate the challenges posed by the patent cliff, highlighting the robust R&D capabilities of Chinese companies [26][30]. - The article suggests that while market expectations for innovative drugs are high, only companies with solid clinical data and clear commercial prospects will sustain growth, indicating a need for investors to identify firms with genuine international competitiveness [28][29].