经营分析 2026年2月3日，公司公告收到与AbbVie关于SIM0500（GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3三抗）的近期里程碑付款 4000万美元。2025年1月，公司与AbbVie就SIM0500签订海外许可选择权协议，公司将收取首付款，以 及最高10.55亿美金的选择性权益付款和里程碑付款以及大中华区以外地区净销售额的分级特许权使用 费。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，先声药业(02096)创新转型持续加码，多款创新管线陆续出 海，考虑到公司26年首付款、里程碑付款等确认，上调2026年营收和利润预测，维持2025、2027年盈利 预测，预计2025-2027年营业收入分别为76.3/100.3/110.4亿元（原76.3/91.0/110.4亿元），归母净利润 11.5/16.5/16.6亿元（原11.5/13.8/16.6亿元），对应EPS为0.44/0.64/0.64元（原0.44/0.53/0.64元），维 持"买入"评级。 2025年以来至今多管线授权出海，创新转型逐步验证 国金证券主要观点如下： 2025年以来，公司共计4款管线实现对外授权，包括：①SIM0500与AbbVie签订许可 ...

国金证券发布研报称，先声药业(02096)创新转型持续加码，多款创新管线陆续出海，考虑到公司26年 首付款、里程碑付款等确认，上调2026年营收和利润预测，维持2025、2027年盈利预测，预计2025- 2027年营业收入分别为76.3/100.3/110.4亿元(原76.3/91.0/110.4亿元)，归母净利润11.5/16.5/16.6亿元(原 11.5/13.8/16.6亿元)，对应EPS为0.44/0.64/0.64元(原0.44/0.53/0.64元)，维持"买入"评级。 国金证券主要观点如下： 经营分析 ③SIM0613(LRRC15ADC)与Ipsen达成合作，可获得最高达10.6亿美元的总交易付款； 2026年2月3日，公司公告收到与AbbVie关于SIM0500(GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3三抗)的近期里程碑付款4000 万美元。2025年1月，公司与AbbVie就SIM0500签订海外许可选择权协议，公司将收取首付款，以及最 高10.55亿美金的选择性权益付款和里程碑付款以及大中华区以外地区净销售额的分级特许权使用费。 ④SIM0709(TL1A/IL-23双抗)与勃林格殷格翰达成独 ...

化学制药 | 总股本(百万股) | 2,595.70 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,595.70 | | 市价(港元) | 11.42 | | 市值(百万港元) | 29,642.87 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 29,642.87 | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070001 Email：muys@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 6,640 | 6,635 | 7,690 | 9,009 | 10,427 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 4% | 0% | 16% | 17% | 16% | | ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between Sihuan Pharmaceutical and Boehringer Ingelheim aims to develop the dual-specific antibody SIM0709 for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) [2][3] - The agreement grants Boehringer Ingelheim global rights outside Greater China, with Sihuan Pharmaceutical receiving an upfront payment of €42 million and potential milestone payments up to €1.016 billion [2][4] - The partnership is expected to leverage Sihuan's innovative research capabilities and Boehringer Ingelheim's global development and commercialization strengths to accelerate the development of this innovative therapy [3][4] Company Developments - SIM0709 is developed from Sihuan's multi-antibody technology platform and targets two key pathways involved in IBD, showing superior efficacy in preclinical studies compared to existing therapies [3] - This collaboration marks Sihuan's second overseas licensing project in the autoimmune disease sector and the fifth self-developed innovative drug to be licensed out, with total potential transaction amounts exceeding $4.6 billion [4] - Sihuan has significantly increased its R&D investment, totaling approximately 9 billion RMB over the past five years, with the proportion of revenue from innovative drugs rising from 45% in 2020 to 77% in the first half of 2025 [4] Market Context - Over 3 million people globally are affected by IBD, highlighting a significant unmet clinical need in this therapeutic area [2] - The collaboration is positioned to redefine effective treatment methods and improve the quality of life for patients suffering from IBD [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical's subsidiary, Xiansheng Zaiming, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for research and development, team expansion, and business growth [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xiansheng Zaiming focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of innovative oncology drugs, having been established in December 2020 [4]. - The company has five commercialized products, including anti-angiogenesis drug Endu and PD-(L)1 inhibitor Envida, with over 15 products in its research pipeline [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Xiansheng Zaiming reported revenues of 1.522 billion yuan, 1.296 billion yuan, and 1.238 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, while incurring losses of 336 million yuan, 506 million yuan, and 303 million yuan during the same periods [4]. - Research and development expenses for the same periods were 831 million yuan, 708 million yuan, and 512 million yuan, with sales expenses of 626 million yuan, 629 million yuan, and 532 million yuan [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance financial flexibility and optimize cash flow through its independent listing, allowing both Xiansheng Pharmaceutical and Xiansheng Zaiming to access separate capital markets [4]. - Xiansheng Zaiming has entered into a global licensing agreement with Ipsen for the ADC SIM0613, potentially earning up to 1.06 billion USD in total payments, including milestone payments and royalties [6].

Core Insights - Zhou Yunshu, a former senior figure at Heng Rui Medicine, has been appointed as the president of Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, marking a significant leadership change in the industry [1][9][10] - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a wave of executive changes, reflecting a strategic adjustment among local companies to enhance their global competitiveness and innovation capabilities [1][10][17] Company Developments - Zhou Yunshu's new role at Xiansheng Pharmaceutical was highlighted during a strategic cooperation announcement with Jiangsu Provincial Tumor Hospital, although official confirmation of his appointment is still pending [1][10][14] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has shown strong growth, with a 15.14% increase in revenue to 3.585 billion yuan and a 32.2% rise in net profit to 604 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][12] - The company has expanded its innovative drug portfolio to 10 products, with innovative drug revenue reaching 2.776 billion yuan, accounting for 77.4% of total revenue [3][12] Industry Trends - The recent influx of executives with multinational backgrounds into local pharmaceutical companies is seen as a strategy to introduce advanced management systems and international operational models [1][10][17] - In 2025, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry reached a milestone with 76 approved innovative drugs and over 130 billion yuan in licensing transactions, indicating a significant shift in the industry landscape [17] - The competitive environment, characterized by intensified product competition and cost control pressures, is driving local companies to adapt and innovate [17]

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Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF managed by E Fund (159316) has shown a strong rebound, rising over 4.5% in early trading, indicating positive market sentiment towards innovative drug development in China [1] Group 1: Innovative Drug Development - Innovent Biologics' anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody "Daboshu" has been approved as the first domestic drug of its kind, filling a gap in the market [1] - The TROP2 ADC "Dercumab" jointly developed by AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo has been approved for breast cancer indications in China, strengthening the ADC sector [1] Group 2: Business Development (BD) Growth - By December 31, 2025, the total transaction amount for China's innovative drug BD overseas licensing is expected to reach $135.655 billion, with upfront payments of $7 billion and a total of 157 transactions, marking historical highs across various metrics [1] - Recent BD transactions include: - Tongyi Medicine's peptide-conjugated drug CBP-1018 for prostate cancer licensed to MultiValent Biotherapies for $2 billion [1] - Ascletis Pharma's ADC drug SIM0613 licensed to Ipsen for $1.06 billion [1] - GRAIL's pan-KRAS inhibitor entering a Co-Co collaboration with AstraZeneca for over $2 billion, setting a record for clinical-stage small molecule collaborations [1] Group 3: Key Products - E Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (159316, linked A/C: 024328/024329) [1] - E Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect pharmaceutical ETF (513200, linked A/C: 018557/018558) [1] - E Fund's Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (159105) [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on upcoming catalysts and potential drug approvals. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to see significant developments in 2026, with multiple domestic drugs anticipated to report key clinical data. This includes drugs from companies like Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to read out critical clinical data in 2026 [3][21]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term theme for the innovative drug sector is international expansion, with several sub-themes to focus on, including overseas business development (BD) licensing, key clinical trials, and unexpected overseas sales growth [3][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were Dongyao Pharmaceutical (+23.15%), Beihai Kangcheng (+19.27%), Junshengtai (+16.41%), Shiyao Group (+6.95%), and Ailis (+5.78%). The top five losers were Gakos (-16.11%), Jiahe Biotech (-10.29%), Laika Pharmaceuticals (-9.33%), Yunding Xinyao (-8.98%), and Yongtai Biotech (-6.94%) [1][14]. Weekly Focused Stocks - The report suggests focusing on several stocks with high overseas expansion potential, including: 1. Companies with MNC certification and high overseas volume certainty: Sanofi, United Pharmaceuticals, and Kelun-Biotech. 2. Companies with overseas data catalysts: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and InnoCare Pharma. 3. Potential heavyweights for overseas MNC licensing: Junshi Biosciences, Shiyao Group, and Yifang Biotech. 4. New innovative drug technology breakthroughs: small nucleic acids, in vivo CAR-T, fat loss and muscle gain, autoimmune CAR-T/bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy [2][18]. Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 23 new drug or new indication applications were approved in China, and 10 new drug or new indication applications were accepted [4][19]. Weekly New Drug Clinical Application Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 99 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 64 new drug clinical applications were accepted [5][24]. Key Domestic Market Events - Notable events include: 1. Xiansheng Zhaoming announced a global exclusive licensing agreement with Ipsen for an ADC drug, potentially worth up to $1.06 billion. 2. He Yu Pharmaceuticals received approval for its CSF-1R selective small molecule inhibitor. 3. Tongyi Pharmaceuticals announced a licensing agreement for a peptide conjugate drug for prostate cancer, with potential payments totaling around $2 billion [10]. Key Overseas Market Events - Significant overseas events include: 1. Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for a 25mg oral semaglutide tablet for weight loss. 2. Sanofi announced a cash acquisition agreement for Dynavax Technologies Corporation, valued at approximately $2.2 billion. 3. Agios Pharmaceuticals announced FDA approval for an oral PK activator for treating α or β thalassemia in adult patients [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered a significant phase of monetization with its innovative drug pipeline, as evidenced by the recent licensing agreement for SIM0613 with Ipsen for $45 million upfront and a total of $1.06 billion, indicating a trend towards external licensing of its products [1][2]. Group 1: Product Development and Licensing - The licensing of SIM0613 marks the company's third external authorization project in 2025, confirming the advancement of its innovative drug pipeline [1]. - SIM0613 has shown advantages in preclinical models, particularly in osteosarcoma and triple-negative breast cancer, positioning it as a potential first-in-class (FIC) therapy globally [2]. - The ADC platform's capabilities are further validated with the second transaction involving SIM0613, following SIM0505, which is currently in Phase I clinical trials [2]. Group 2: Global Pipeline Expansion - The company is accelerating its global pipeline expansion, with multiple products and technology platforms poised for overseas exploration, including SIM0709, a dual antibody with significant global competitiveness [2]. - Clinical results for SIM0237 have been disclosed, showing promising outcomes in bladder cancer patients, indicating the potential for further development [2]. - The company is rapidly advancing its global clinical trials, with SIM0500 in Phase I and SIM0278 in Phase II, demonstrating effective collaboration with partners [2]. Group 3: New Product Contributions to Growth - New products are becoming a strong driver for future growth, particularly in the CNS field with the launch of a non-addictive insomnia treatment, which has quickly gained traction since its release [3]. - The oncology sector is also benefiting from the potential of oral SERDs, with ongoing Phase III trials validating the market opportunity [3]. - In the infection and autoimmune sectors, new products are expected to receive regulatory approval by 2026, further enhancing the company's growth prospects [3]. Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.18 billion, 1.40 billion, and 1.52 billion yuan, respectively, with a CAGR of 14% [3]. - The target price has been adjusted to 19.82 HKD based on a PE valuation method, reflecting a shift in market expectations for comparable companies [3].