证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 中东冲突升级，关注商品、军工及"HALO 交易" 财信证券宏观策略周报（3.2-3.6） 2026 年 03 月 01 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 0.73 7.73 23.15 沪深 300 0.08 4.27 18.96 -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。后续行情走向仍存在两点隐忧：一是海外局势动荡加剧，中东冲 突、美国关税走势均存在较大不确定性，将对市场风险偏好产生影响。二是 "日历效应"支撑作用减弱。随着春季躁动行情临近尾声、业绩披露季到来， 预计市场走势将回归基本面。长期来看，我们维持"春节后至 4 月底 A 股指 数走势将逐步回归市场内在动能，整体呈现宽幅震荡走势，双向波动幅度可 能加大，指数级别机会仍需等待"的判断，静待两会政府工作报告指引以及 4 月底 A 股业 ...

看发展质效，高新技术产业产值占比达到55.7%，5年提升10.6个百分点；数字经济占GDP比重突破 50%、5年提升9个百分点，国家级数字领航企业18家、居全国首位。 "十五五"开局之年，工业经济如何干出气势、跑出速度？ 2月26日召开的全省工业经济高质量发展推进会议给出了方向和路径：稳增长与提质效协同发力， 持续做强工业经济"头号工程"。 稳住是根基，提质是关键。做强"头号工程"，守的是基本盘、谋的是高质量、抓的是新突破，最终 都要落在稳增长、提质效这"两个发力"上。 （一） 大抓工业，是山东树立起的鲜明导向。 作为全国重要的工业基地，山东拥有41个工业大类、197个工业中类和603个工业小类，是工业门类 最为齐全的省份之一。近年来，山东通过深入实施工业经济"头号工程"，推动工业经济实现量质齐升。 看规模体量，2025年规上工业增加值增长7.6%、高于全国1.7个百分点；"十四五"期间年均增速 7.5%、高于全国1.6个百分点，对经济增长发挥了稳定器、动力源作用。 唯有守住稳增长底线，才能为提质效创造条件，实现工业经济行稳致远。 （三） 看产业生态，19条标志性产业链汇集九成以上规上工业企业，工业总产值过百 ...

Core Insights - The National Information Innovation Park in Beijing has reached 1,000 resident enterprises, forming a complete industrial chain from hardware to software and application solutions [1][2] - The park is a key part of China's digital economy strategy, transitioning from a "single replacement" phase to a collaborative innovation cycle across the entire industry chain [2] - The park aims to attract companies in AI, 6G, quantum computing, and other cutting-edge technologies, establishing a comprehensive ecosystem from computing power to application scenarios [2][3] Group 1: Industry Development - The National Information Innovation Park covers an area of 1.7 million square meters and includes enterprises in CPU/GPU, operating systems, databases, servers, and cybersecurity [2] - The park will focus on four major areas: AI full-stack ecosystem, next-generation communication technologies, quantum computing, and immersive interaction technologies [2][3] - The Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone (经开区) is experiencing significant growth in new industrial dynamics, particularly in AI, 6G, and quantum technologies [3] Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Beijing government has set higher requirements for the "Three Cities and One District" development model, emphasizing the transformation of scientific achievements into practical applications [4] - The government aims to strengthen the integration of technology, education, and talent development to create an attractive environment for businesses and residents [4][7] - The city plans to lead in building an international technology innovation center, focusing on original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs [8]

Core Insights - Hainan Province achieved a significant milestone by realizing its first major foreign investment project, marking a breakthrough in attracting foreign capital [1] - The province aims to enhance its industrial clusters and modernize its industrial system by 2025, targeting a GDP exceeding 800 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Major Projects and Industrial Development - Hainan will support 107 projects through long-term special bonds, focusing on major projects and modern industrial system construction [1] - Three offshore wind power projects have been completed and connected to the grid, alongside the commencement of the Hainan commercial space launch site [1] - The province plans to implement a three-year action plan to build a modern industrial system with Hainan characteristics, adding nine key industrial clusters [1] Group 2: Reform and Market Access - Hainan has introduced over 20 innovative institutional integration cases and is advancing an integrated platform for market access approval for both domestic and foreign investments [2] - The province's oil import policy has generated an additional output value of 12.3 billion yuan, while the average electricity price for industrial and commercial users has decreased by 4.2% [2] - A total of 155 measures to expand service industry openness have been implemented, resulting in 24 typical cases [2] Group 3: Consumption, Trade, and Investment - Over 300 million people participated in a consumption upgrade program, driving consumption by more than 44 billion yuan [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 267.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [2] - Actual foreign investment reached 25.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, while non-financial outward direct investment grew by 20.7% to 3.62 billion USD [2] Group 4: Tourism and High-tech Industry - Hainan has entered a new phase with over 100 million tourists and total spending exceeding 200 billion yuan [3] - The province's high-tech manufacturing sector saw a value-added growth of 28.1%, and the digital economy's core industry revenue is expected to surpass 240 billion yuan [3] - A total of 17 national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises have been cultivated, along with 600 provincial-level specialized and innovative SMEs [3] Group 5: Future Plans and Policy Initiatives - In 2026, Hainan will focus on building a modern industrial system and will initiate a new round of industrial cluster enhancement actions [3] - The province plans to introduce further market access measures and refine policies to encourage specific industries [3][4] - Hainan aims to enhance its tourism and consumption centers, with a focus on high-end medical services and educational opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan provincial government is implementing a "strong county empowerment reform" to enhance the economic strength of its counties, aiming to create a group of economically robust counties that can lead the province's high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Objectives and Implementation - The first batch of counties selected for the reform includes 29 counties and cities, which are expected to lead the development of strong counties with economic outputs exceeding 1 billion, 800 million, and 500 million yuan [1][2]. - The reform aims to address the issue of "strong counties not being strong" by concentrating resources on counties with strong development foundations and potential [2][3]. - The average GDP of 183 counties in Sichuan is projected to reach 35.37 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.81 billion yuan from 2020, with 27 counties exceeding 60 billion yuan in economic output [2]. Group 2: Selection Criteria and Distribution - The selection of the 29 pilot counties was based on a comprehensive assessment of their economic total, population size, market potential, and industrial foundation, while considering local intentions and debt risk [3]. - The distribution of the selected counties includes two each from major cities like Chengdu, Luzhou, Deyang, and others, with these counties contributing to over 19% of the province's GDP in 2024 [4]. Group 3: Industrial Development Focus - The reform emphasizes the development of leading industries, with pilot counties expected to achieve an industrial added value of 363.8 billion yuan in 2024, averaging 12.5 billion yuan per county [5]. - The strategy includes fostering new industrialization and leveraging local resource advantages to create significant industrial clusters [6]. Group 4: Urbanization and Population Integration - The pilot counties have a total population of nearly 19 million, representing over 20% of the province's population, but their urbanization rate is below provincial and national averages [7]. - Accelerating new urbanization and facilitating the integration of agricultural transfer populations into urban areas are key tasks for these counties [7]. Group 5: Monitoring and Accountability - A reform work promotion mechanism has been established to oversee the implementation of the reform, including monitoring and evaluation systems to ensure accountability [8]. - Counties that fail to meet performance indicators may face warnings and potential removal from the reform pilot program [8]. Group 6: Ambitious Goals and Action Plans - Specific counties, such as Jianyang and Xichang, have set ambitious goals to become the first "billion-dollar counties" by 2026, focusing on developing key industries [9][10]. - Various counties are implementing action plans to enhance economic development, with mechanisms for regular assessment and accountability [10].

Group 1: Economic Milestone - Shandong Province officially announced that its GDP will exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2025, reaching 10.3197 trillion yuan, making it the third province in China and the first in the north to join the "trillion-yuan club" [1] - The province achieved this milestone in just five years, showcasing its commitment to high-quality economic development [1] Group 2: Industrial Transformation - The achievement is attributed to systematic changes in the industrial sector, focusing on the real economy and innovation-driven transformation [2] - Traditional industries have seen significant transformation, with Shandong optimizing the layout of heavy industries like petrochemicals and steel, resulting in a capacity transfer of 23.56 million tons of crude steel and 26.96 million tons of refining capacity [2] - By mid-2025, the output value of new technology industries is expected to account for 55.2% of the industrial output above designated size, with over 35,000 high-tech enterprises and more than 50,000 technology-based SMEs [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Key technological breakthroughs include the commissioning of the world's first fourth-generation nuclear power plant and the global debut of 12-inch silicon carbide substrates, which are transitioning from concepts to industrial advantages [3] - The digital economy is becoming a core link between traditional industry transformation and the cultivation of new productive forces, with Shandong establishing itself as a national leader in industrial internet platforms [3] Group 4: Green and Low-Carbon Development - As the first national pilot zone for green and low-carbon high-quality development, Shandong's non-fossil energy power generation capacity reached 134 million kilowatts by Q3 2025, surpassing coal power for the first time [4] - The province has achieved a significant reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP, creating a virtuous cycle of ecological protection, industrial upgrading, and economic growth [4] Group 5: Market and Government Synergy - The economic leap is a result of the synergy between an effective market and a proactive government, breaking down institutional barriers and aligning with market demands [5] - Shandong has optimized its business environment, with over 90% of government services available online, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs for enterprises [5] Group 6: Capital Market Performance - By the end of 2025, Shandong is expected to have 310 listed companies, a 33% increase from 2020, with 52 companies making it to the "China Top 500 Enterprises" list [6] - The province's import and export scale is projected to reach 3.53 trillion yuan, with exports growing over 60% since 2020, highlighting the importance of foreign trade in economic growth [6] Group 7: Future Industry Focus - Shandong's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to build a modern industrial system, focusing on high-end transformation of traditional industries and emerging sectors like deep-sea aerospace and quantum technology [7][8] - The province is also committed to deepening market-oriented reforms and enhancing its position in the national value chain [8] Group 8: Challenges Ahead - Despite the achievements, Shandong faces challenges in further stimulating internal innovation and maintaining competitiveness in a dynamic regional landscape [9][10]

Core Insights - Beijing is projected to achieve a regional GDP of 52,073.4 billion yuan by 2025, marking it as the second "5 trillion city" after Shanghai, indicating a significant shift towards quality growth under strict constraints of "reduction development" [1][3] - The city plans to invest over 1.5 billion yuan in 2026 to support high-precision industries and small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on over 25 policy support directions across key sectors such as integrated circuits, biomedicine, and digital economy [3][4] Economic Growth and Sector Contributions - In 2025, the information transmission, software, and IT services sectors, along with the financial industry, contributed over 70% to Beijing's economic growth, with the software industry alone achieving a value-added of 12,192.4 billion yuan, growing by 11.0% [2][9] - The manufacturing sector, particularly in computer and electronic equipment, saw a significant increase, with a 20.2% growth in value-added for the computer and communication equipment manufacturing industry [3] Policy Initiatives and Support Measures - The Beijing Municipal Economic and Information Bureau announced a "Create the Future" growth plan for 2026, focusing on six future industries: future information, health, manufacturing, energy, materials, and space [5][6] - The plan includes measures to support innovation in robotics, integrated circuits, and new materials, with specific funding support of up to 50% of project costs for qualifying initiatives [4] Digital Economy and Consumption Trends - The city aims to stimulate digital consumption and support the development of 2-3 leading AIGC digital content companies with revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan [2][10] - There is a strategic focus on integrating ultra-high-definition audio-visual technology with cultural tourism, promoting smart retail, and replicating metaverse business models to enhance service consumption [10][11] Infrastructure and Resource Development - Beijing plans to enhance its computing power resources, targeting a cumulative capacity of approximately 200,000 P by 2027, with initiatives to build super nodes and industry nodes in strategic locations [7][8] - The city has already allocated over 700 million yuan in computing power subsidies in 2023, supporting nearly 100 enterprises to reduce computing costs by over 15% [8]

Core Insights - Beijing is projected to achieve a GDP of 52,073.4 billion yuan by 2025, becoming the second "5 trillion yuan city" after Shanghai, marking a significant transition towards innovation-driven growth and regional collaboration [1][3] Economic Growth and Industry Contribution - In 2025, the information transmission, software, and IT services sector, along with the financial industry, will contribute over 70% to Beijing's economic growth [2][10] - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 5.4% year-on-year, with the industrial output value increasing by 6.5% [3] Policy Initiatives and Funding - Beijing plans to invest over 1.5 billion yuan in the first batch of high-precision industry development projects and support for small and medium enterprises in 2026, focusing on over 25 policy support directions [3][6] - The initiatives will target key industries such as integrated circuits, biomedicine, materials energy, information software, and the digital economy [3][6] Future Industry Development - The "Create the Future" growth plan will focus on six future industries: future information, future health, future manufacturing, future energy, future materials, and future space [7] - The plan aims to cultivate high-risk, long-cycle industries, with government support to mitigate early-stage risks and attract private investment [8] Digital Economy and Consumption - The digital consumption potential will be stimulated, with plans to nurture 2-3 leading AIGC digital content companies with revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan [10][11] - The strategy emphasizes the integration of technology breakthroughs with industry foundations to enhance consumption potential and establish Beijing as a global digital economy benchmark [11] Computing Power Infrastructure - Beijing aims to build a computing power scale of approximately 200,000 P by 2027, enhancing the supply of computing resources [8][9] - The "Galaxy Computing Corridor" project will create a collaborative computing power supply system, with significant investments in infrastructure across various regions [9]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue its oscillating adjustment in the short term, with major indices experiencing collective declines [2][3][11] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a significant drop in trading volume, as the total transaction amount in the two markets has shrunk to approximately 2.7 trillion [3][12] - The report highlights that the market is currently in a phase of performance expectations versus fundamental verification, particularly as the end of January approaches, which will see a peak in annual report forecasts [3][12] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has shown continued strength, driven by rising gold and silver futures, with five key factors contributing to this trend: the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, strong demand for gold from global central banks, a weakening dollar, and rising inflation concerns [9] - The report advises caution against chasing prices in the precious metals market after significant increases, suggesting short-term trading opportunities with stop-loss measures [9] Real Estate - The real estate sector has become active due to a series of supportive policies from central and local governments aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [10] - The report anticipates that ongoing policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics will boost the sector, with a focus on high-quality companies with land reserve advantages and those returning to stable growth [10] Future Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive medium-term outlook for the market, citing a global interest rate cut cycle entering its second half and a favorable macro liquidity environment [3][12] - It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the short term, waiting for signs of market stabilization before adjusting strategies, while also identifying long-term investment opportunities in sectors with strong policy support and performance certainty [3][12]

Core Insights - Sichuan Province has announced 25 key industrial sectors to focus on, aiming to seize opportunities from the new technological revolution and industrial transformation [1] Group 1: Key Industrial Sectors - Artificial Intelligence: Focus areas include large models, AI algorithms and software, AI hardware, AI products, and data labeling, primarily in Chengdu, Mianyang, and Zigong [2][3][4][6] - Green Hydrogen: Key components include hydrogen equipment, critical materials, fuel cell systems, and hydrogen-powered vehicles, with major activities centered in Chengdu and Deyang [7][8][9][10][11][12] - Biotechnology: Emphasis on intravenous solutions, blood products, vaccines, and biopharmaceuticals, mainly in Chengdu and Luzhou [13][14] Group 2: Advanced Technologies - Commercial Aerospace: Focus on satellite manufacturing, launch services, and rocket development, primarily in Chengdu and Mianyang [15][16] - Smart Connected Vehicles: Key areas include vehicle networking and autonomous driving technologies, mainly in Chengdu and Yibin [19][20][21] - Low-altitude Economy and Drones: Development of fixed-wing and vertical take-off drones, primarily in Chengdu and Zigong [24] Group 3: Emerging Energy Solutions - Next-Generation Energy Storage: Focus on vanadium and sodium batteries, with significant activities in Leshan and Dazhou [41][42] - Solid-State Batteries: Development of various types of solid-state batteries, primarily in Yibin and Suining [44] - High-Efficiency Solar Cells: Focus on advanced solar cell technologies, particularly in Yibin and Meishan [45][46] Group 4: Advanced Manufacturing - Robotics: Development of service, industrial, and bionic robots, primarily in Chengdu and Mianyang [34] - New Industrial Mother Machines: Focus on high-end CNC machine tools and additive manufacturing, mainly in Deyang and Luzhou [35][36] - Laser Equipment: Development of laser technologies and materials, primarily in Mianyang [38] Group 5: Health and Safety Technologies - Nuclear Medicine: Focus on the manufacturing of nuclear medical equipment and radioactive drug development, primarily in Chengdu and Mianyang [51][52]