金十数据7月1日讯，美国5月份的职位空缺意外上升至去年11月以来的最高水平，裁员人数下降，表明 尽管经济存在不确定性，但劳动力市场保持稳定。美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，就业岗位从4 月份修正后的740万个增至777万个，这超出了经济学家的预期。 美国职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高 ...

Core Insights - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, stated that new data confirms the robustness of the U.S. labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve is still awaiting more information regarding inflation [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for interest rate cuts in the fall [1]

美联储戴利：最新数据显示美国劳动力市场依然坚挺。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "Big Beautiful Act" and its 899 clause, which targets global minimum corporate tax rates, digital service taxes, and profit shifting taxes, particularly affecting U.S. companies and their international operations [1][2][5]. Core Points and Arguments - The 899 clause aims to counteract unfair tax practices imposed by certain countries on U.S. companies, particularly focusing on "discriminatory countries" such as some European nations, Canada, and Australia [2][3]. - The actual impact of the 899 clause on secondary market investments may be limited, as major economies like China and Japan are not included in the targeted countries [1][2]. - Concerns about inflation due to the Trump administration's immigration policies are raised, suggesting that labor market tightness could lead to increased wages and service prices, although no definitive evidence supports a significant inflation rise [3][9]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell exhibits a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts, emphasizing economic resilience, while Board Member Waller suggests considering a rate cut in July, indicating internal disagreements within the Fed [4][13]. - The U.S. is increasing tax rates on European companies, including higher existing rates on dividends, interest, and rents, while exempting certain investment income, which may have a minor impact on the secondary market [5][7]. - Differences between the House and Senate versions of the Big Beautiful Act's 899 clause include implementation dates and definitions of discriminatory countries, with the Senate version being more lenient [8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The current labor market demand in the U.S. is slowing down, with a notable decrease in non-farm job vacancies, suggesting that the labor market is not experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance [11]. - The number of immigrants detained and deported this year is relatively low compared to the total number of new immigrants during the Biden administration, indicating that immigration supply has not significantly contracted [10]. - There are mixed views on whether immigration enforcement will lead to inflation; some argue it could lower inflation by reducing housing costs, as immigration is correlated with rising rents [12]. - The Fed's recent meeting revealed lowered growth forecasts and increased inflation predictions, maintaining expectations for two rate cuts, but with significant uncertainty regarding future tariffs and their inflationary effects [13][14]. - Powell's cautious approach may stem from his desire to avoid risks as he approaches the end of his term, while Waller's more aggressive stance may be aimed at gaining attention for a potential future leadership role within the Fed [15][16].

摩根大通全球固定收益负责人米歇尔：（谈美国劳动力市场）企业"陷入停滞"。 ...

由于学年将于本月结束，而一些州允许非教学人员在漫长的暑假期间领取福利，申请人数可能会继续上 升。尽管在特朗普的激进关税引发的经济不确定性下，雇主留住工人，没有出现大规模裁员，但劳动力 市场正在逐渐失去动力。白宫对移民的打击也减缓了就业增长。5月份非农就业岗位增加13.9万个，低 于去年同期的19.3万个。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至6月7日当周初请失业金人数 24.8万人，预期24万人，前值由24.7万人修正为 24.8万人;这是自去年10月以来的最高水平。这些数据可能是受到学年结束、学校放假的影响。在2024 年，初请失业金人数在6月初达到了较高水平。这进一步表明失业的美国人重新找到工作的所需时间更 长了。美国至5月31日当周续请失业金人数 195.6万人，预期191万人，前值由190.4万人修正为190.2万 人，为2021年底以来的最高水平。 初请失业金人数与招聘放缓的情况相吻合，这表明美国失业人员正在艰难地寻找工作。然而，该报告所 涵盖的时期包括了阵亡将士纪念日以及一些州的暑假开学前的假期，这使得数据的波动性更大。 彭博经济学家Eliza Winger表示："雇主对经济增长前景持谨慎态度，这导致招聘率 ...

Group 1 - The current silver futures are trading above 8862, with a slight decline of 0.49% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The silver futures opened at 8859 and reached a high of 8885 and a low of 8794, suggesting volatility within the trading range [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is facing challenges with weak hiring and accelerated data revisions, as highlighted by economist Samuel Thomas [3] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 125,000, but significant downward revisions of previous data overshadow this positive figure [3] - The initial report for March's job additions was revised down from 224,000 to only 120,000, indicating potential issues with the reliability of employment data [3] - Thomas anticipates that the May job additions may also be revised down to around 100,000 in the upcoming data release [3] - The frequent revisions may be linked to small businesses delaying data submissions, which are heavily impacted by high interest rates and tariff costs [3] - Government employment has also been declining, with a total reduction of 59,000 jobs this year, including a decrease of 22,000 in May alone [3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to a peak of 4.8% by December [3]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，5月美国非农新增数据略超预期、但前值再现下修，家庭调查口径下的劳动参与率下降，或反映出移民政策变 化的影响，同时劳动力供给减少压制了失业率的反弹，整体上劳动力市场仍在温和降温的正轨方向。4月美国非农新增数据略超预期，家庭调查口径下 的数据细节亦反映出劳动力市场仍具韧性，工资增速放缓。由于本周ADP数据低于预期加重了海外市场对于就业快速恶化的担忧情绪，风险解除后，美 债收益率曲线抬升，美元指数走强，美股三大指数出现反弹，海外市场对美联储6月降息的预期概率降温。 具体来看： 1）5月非农新增13.9万人，小幅高于市场预期，但前月数据再现下修，4月非农新增数据从初值17.7万人下修至14.7万人，3月数据从18.5万人再度下修至 12万人，合计下修9.5万人4月非农新增17.7万人，高于市场预期的13.8万人，同时前月数据明显下修，3月非农新增数据从初值的22.8万人下修至18.5万 人，2月数据从11.7万人再度下修至10.2万人，合计下修5.8万人。 2）分行业来看，政府部门录得-0.1万人（前值0.1万人），其中联邦政府录得-2.2万人（前值-1.3万人），州政府录得0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]