来源丨国际财闻汇 一份信息量高于以往的就业报告预计将揭示美国劳动力市场近年来放缓的程度，甚至可能表明其增长已完全停滞。 除常规月度就业人数和失业率数据外，定于周三发布的1月就业报告还将包含备受关注的年度就业数据修正值。此前初步估计显示，截至2025年3月 的年度就业数据可能出现创纪录的91.1万人的下修，预计此次修正将显著下调招聘速度。 BMO Capital Markets首席美国经济学家Scott Anderson表示："今年的年度基准修正将比往常更具影响。当前劳动力市场确实处于净就业增长与可 能出现就业流失的刀锋边缘。" 这份由美国劳工统计局编制的报告原定于2月6日发布，但因政府部分停摆而推迟。 "零。一点都没有。完全没有，"沃勒在声明中表示，"这根本不像一个健康的劳动力市场。" 富国银行经济学家在报告中指出："1月就业报告可能使疲软的劳动力市场格局基本维持不变。" 每年1月就业报告发布时，劳工统计局会将就业数据与更精准但不够及时的季度就业与工资普查数据进行基准校准。该数据基于各州失业保险税记 录，覆盖美国大部分就业岗位。 除2025年3月经调整的就业水平外，劳工统计局还将发布去年全年经修订的月度就业人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming employment report is expected to reveal significant insights into the slowdown of the U.S. labor market, with a notable downward revision of job numbers anticipated, indicating a potential shift in the perception of labor market health [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data and Revisions - The January employment report will include a crucial revision of job numbers, with an initial estimate showing a record downward adjustment of 910,000 jobs for the year ending March 2025 [1]. - The report will also provide monthly employment revisions for the previous year, reflecting updates to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) models that account for business openings and closures [1][4]. - Economists suggest that the revised data may indicate a more severe slowdown in hiring than previously thought, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's view on the labor market [2][3]. Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - Recent data indicates that U.S. companies announced the largest number of layoffs in January since the Great Recession, while job vacancies fell to their lowest level since 2020 [3]. - The market anticipates an increase of 70,000 in non-farm payrolls for January, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4%, slightly below the four-year high of 4.5% reached in November [3]. - The labor market appears to be at a critical juncture, with net job growth and potential job losses being closely monitored [1][2]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The adjustments to employment data have become highly politicized, particularly following former President Trump's criticism of the BLS and claims of manipulated data for political purposes [4][5]. - Economists argue that revisions are necessary for accuracy and are based on more comprehensive source data, which helps balance speed and reliability [5][6]. - Transparency in revisions is essential to maintain trust in official statistics, despite the potential for confusion and conspiracy theories surrounding the data [6].

Group 1 - Recent inflation has risen and remains at relatively high levels, primarily driven by increases in commodity prices, while the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is still under observation [1] - The labor market faces downside risks, with a noticeable slowdown in demand, low hiring rates, and low layoff rates indicating a weakening labor market, particularly affecting vulnerable groups [1] - There is no broad support for a rapid adjustment of interest rates, with the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut not widely endorsed [1] Group 2 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is working to address factors behind employment data revisions, with annual employment data adjustments aligning closely with expectations, and the Federal Reserve's reliance on BLS data remains sufficient for its needs [1] - The committee welcomes new members and remains committed to fulfilling its dual mandate while maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Among 19 policymakers, 10 anticipate two or more rate cuts in the remaining months of the year, while the other 10 expect fewer cuts [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the labor market in the United States, specifically focusing on the revisions to payroll employment growth as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Preliminary Revision of Jobs**: The BLS announced a preliminary revision of -911,000 jobs to payroll employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025, indicating a significant downward adjustment [2][3]. - **Impact on Job Growth**: The revision suggests that job growth averaged only 71,000 jobs per month during the period, compared to the previously reported 147,000 jobs per month [6]. - **Sector Distribution**: The downward revision was broad-based across industries, with the largest impacts seen in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, and trade sectors. Transportation and utilities were the only sectors not experiencing downward revisions [11]. - **Small vs. Large Businesses**: The slowdown in job growth was more pronounced in small- and medium-sized businesses, which saw near-zero payroll growth, while large businesses experienced a 1.7% year-over-year payroll growth [20]. Additional Important Insights - **Productivity Growth**: The revisions are expected to lead to upward adjustments in productivity growth estimates, with nonfarm productivity growth likely revised to 1.7% year-over-year [40]. - **Labor Market Tightness**: Other indicators suggest that the labor market has softened significantly, with the underlying pace of job growth estimated to have decelerated to about 25,000 jobs per month, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 jobs per month needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [43][49]. - **Birth-Death Model Concerns**: The BLS's birth-death model, which estimates job creation from business openings and closings, is likely overstating payroll growth by about 30,000 jobs per month [24]. - **Future Revisions**: The BLS will incorporate these revisions into the establishment survey with the January employment report released in February, which will also revise job growth estimates for the remainder of 2025 [32]. Conclusion - The significant downward revision in payroll employment growth highlights potential weaknesses in the labor market, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses. The implications for productivity growth and economic indicators such as GDP and GDI are noteworthy, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of labor market trends moving forward [36][40].

Core Insights - Current employment data in the U.S. is somewhat disappointing, with expectations for revisions in employment numbers [1] - Investment in the U.S. is anticipated to drive income growth [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed crucial for economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with predictions of modest job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% for August, which may lead to a definitive decision on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The upcoming employment report is significant as it follows news that the number of unemployed in July exceeded job vacancies for the first time since the pandemic [1] - Economic growth in employment is being hindered by high tariffs and immigration policies under the Trump administration, which have led to a reduced labor supply [1][2] Group 2 - Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 75,000 in August, a slight rise from 73,000 in July, but this growth is seen as realistic given the reduced labor supply [1] - The average monthly job creation in the second quarter was only 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period of 2024 [2] - A potential downward revision of employment levels by up to 800,000 is anticipated, based on quarterly employment and wage census data [3] Group 3 - The labor market is experiencing a low turnover rate, with job growth primarily driven by the net creation of new companies, which is the most sensitive area for data adjustments [2] - The manufacturing sector may face job losses due to a strike involving 3,200 Boeing workers, compounded by existing pressures from tariffs [5] - There are indications that labor demand weakened further in August, with economists warning that the risks of layoffs may have been underestimated by the market and Federal Reserve officials [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual benchmark revision of non-farm payroll (NFP) data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to reveal a significant downward adjustment of employment figures, potentially by 550,000 to 800,000 jobs, which could impact market confidence and lead to a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Reasons for Data Revision - The primary reasons for the anticipated downward revision include the distortion of the birth-death model, which overestimates job creation from new businesses, and a significant reduction in illegal immigration, leading to an overestimation of the labor force [1][2] - Estimates suggest that these biases may result in an overstatement of actual employment by 40,000 to 70,000 jobs per month, accumulating to 550,000 to 800,000 jobs annually [1][2] Group 2: Employment Data Analysis - Goldman Sachs indicates that the BLS's birth-death model is a major source of employment data distortion, as it relies on estimations rather than actual business registration or tax data, making it prone to systematic overestimation [2] - The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and Business Dynamics Statistics (BDM) are considered more reliable benchmarks for employment data, as they are based on actual unemployment insurance records [2][3] Group 3: Employment Trends and Signals - From early 2024, established companies are reportedly adding only 25,000 jobs per month, while the BLS estimates new companies contribute over 100,000 jobs monthly, a discrepancy highlighted by BDM data [3] - To maintain a balanced labor market, a reasonable level of non-farm employment should be around 170,000 jobs per month, with 100,000 from natural growth and 70,000 from model overestimations [3] Group 4: Additional Indicators of Data Issues - Goldman Sachs identifies five additional signals indicating the employment data may be inflated, including a decrease in illegal immigration, seasonal adjustment model inaccuracies, historical patterns of data revisions during economic slowdowns, discrepancies in healthcare employment growth compared to ADP data, and potential overestimations in household surveys regarding population and employment growth [4][5][6][7][8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key remains whether the upcoming non-farm payroll data can provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the cuts [1][9] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs indicates that future employment growth revisions are likely to be negative due to several factors [2] - The birth-death model may be overly optimistic [3] - Historical data revisions during economic slowdowns tend to be negative [3] - ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth [3] - Household surveys currently overestimate immigration and employment growth [3] Labor Market Performance - The outlook for employment growth is bleak, with a significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates a balanced employment growth level of around 80,000, while the three-month average growth is concerning at 35,000 [3] - The substantial revision of July data has raised concerns for the Federal Reserve about potentially delayed responses to an impending economic slowdown [3] Rate Cut Path - The window for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently open [4] - Market focus on August non-farm data is heightened due to previous data revisions [4] - The Federal Reserve is on track for a September rate cut, followed by cautious observation of the labor market for signs of further weakness [4] Rate Cut Cycle Completion - Goldman Sachs believes there is a high likelihood that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [5][7] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May next year, which may coincide with the end of the rate cut cycle [5] Yield Curve Considerations - The U.S. yield curve is currently flat as of June 26/28, 2026, providing a framework for future policy considerations [6]

Core Insights - Significant downward revision of employment growth and adjustments in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation methods have raised questions about the reliability of official statistics [5][6][19] - Bank of America (BofA) maintains that these data remain reliable but advises caution regarding initial employment figures [6][11] - Alternative data cannot replace official statistics but can provide a reasonable check on the data [7][24] Employment Data - The recent downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June is the largest adjustment outside of the pandemic period [8][11] - BofA suggests evaluating these revisions in terms of both absolute numbers and their proportion of total employment, indicating that the latest adjustments, while significant, are not as abnormal when viewed in context [11][12] - The response rate for surveys has declined, which may lead to larger-than-normal revisions, but the revisions typically fall within a 90% confidence interval [13][14][16] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The increase in imputed data within the CPI is a concern, but BofA believes there is no immediate cause for alarm [20][21] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has had to rely more on imputed prices due to reduced data collection, which could potentially distort inflation readings [20][21] - BofA's analysis indicates that the reduction in CPI sample collection has not significantly impacted overall CPI changes, with discrepancies being less than 1 percentage point [21] Alternative Data Sources - In light of concerns over government data reliability, BofA identifies several alternative data sources, such as Homebase, ADP, and credit card spending data, which can provide insights into labor market conditions and consumer spending [24][26][27] - While these alternative data sources are useful supplements, BofA emphasizes that there is no perfect substitute for official statistics [28] GDP Tracking Adjustments - BofA has revised its second-quarter GDP growth estimate down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, influenced by lower-than-expected construction spending and downward revisions in payroll data [29][30] - The adjustments in GDP tracking reflect changes in employment data, construction spending, and inventory levels, indicating a more cautious economic outlook [29][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. is moving forward with a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which has been confirmed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and there are significant adjustments to previously reported employment data that have raised concerns about the U.S. job market [2][3] - The new tariffs include a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, a 50% tariff on Brazil, a 25% tariff on India, and a 39% tariff on Switzerland, indicating a firm stance on trade policy by the Trump administration [2][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase in the unemployment rate in July, and the number of non-farm jobs added in May and June was significantly revised downward, suggesting a cooling job market [3]