Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the upcoming US copper tariff and the current off - season, while being affected by the tight copper raw material situation[2]. - The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term because of the potential increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season downstream demand[4]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend overall, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the pressure of weak domestic consumption[5]. - The zinc price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show an oscillating trend in the short term influenced by market sentiment[6]. - The tin price is predicted to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply and demand are balanced with the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产[7]. - The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels as the valuation of nickel price relative to nickel - iron has risen to a relatively high level[8]. - The lithium carbonate price may face pressure as supply is expected to remain high despite short - term rebounds[9]. - The alumina price is expected to be shorted at high levels considering the over - capacity situation, with the ore price as the core factor[11]. - The stainless steel market is in an off - season with limited demand and reduced trading activity[13]. - The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance due to the off - season and large spot - futures price difference[16]. Summaries by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.15% to $9657/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78070 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110475 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 11.4%. The domestic Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 50000 tons[2]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 77200 - 78600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9500 - 9720/ton[2]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed down 0.52% to $2583/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 9000 hands to 636000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 70000 tons[4]. - Outlook: The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20550 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2550 - 2610/ton[4]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.88% to 16946 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $28.5 to $1988.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 60000 tons[5]. - Outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited under weak domestic consumption[5]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.73% to 22070 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $27.5 to $2711.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 93100 tons[6]. - Outlook: The zinc price is bearish in the medium - long term and may oscillate in the short term[6]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price oscillated. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 54.07%. The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025[7]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price operating in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin price in the range of $31000 - 35000/ton[7]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded at night. The main contradiction lies in the stainless - steel production line. The nickel - iron production profit is extremely low, and the ore price has weakened recently[8]. - Outlook: The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the Shanghai nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the corresponding range[8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed up 1.26%. The LC2509 contract closed up 0.27%[9]. - Outlook: The lithium carbonate price may face pressure, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract operating in the range of 64800 - 68200 yuan/ton[9]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.61% to 3143 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Guizhou and Shanxi increased. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 6900 tons to 25500 tons[11]. - Outlook: The alumina price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton[11]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12695 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 3.12%[13]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in an off - season with limited demand[13]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.08% to 19790 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the inventory in three regions increased by 900 tons to 27600 tons[15][16]. - Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance[16].

Group 1: Market Performance - Major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 436.36 points (-0.98%) at 44023.29, while the Nasdaq increased by 37.47 points (0.18%) to 20677.8 [1] - The S&P 500 decreased by 24.8 points (-0.40%) to 6243.76, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 386.8 points (1.60%) to 24590.12 [1] - The Nikkei 225 increased by 218.4 points (0.55%) to 39678.02, and the KOSPI rose by 13.25 points (0.41%) to 3215.28 [1] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the current negotiations between the U.S. and China are in a "good state," with flexibility regarding the upcoming tariff ceasefire deadline [2] - President Trump announced that tariff letters to smaller countries will be sent soon, with rates expected to be "slightly above 10%" [3] Group 3: Trade Investigations - The U.S. Trade Representative initiated an investigation into Brazil's trade practices under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, focusing on unfair restrictions on U.S. exports [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. core inflation data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, with core CPI increasing by 0.2%, below the 0.3% market expectation [5] Group 5: Oil Demand Outlook - OPEC indicated that global economic performance in the second half of the year may exceed expectations, supporting oil demand due to high refinery crude absorption [6] Group 6: Corporate Investments - Apple is expected to announce a $500 million investment in MP Materials, the only rare earth mining operator in the U.S. [7] Group 7: Financial Performance - JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 revenue of $45.7 billion, exceeding market expectations, but down from $51 billion year-over-year, with net income of $15 billion [8] - CEO Jamie Dimon noted that tax reform and potential deregulation are favorable for economic outlook, despite existing risks from tariffs and trade [9] Group 8: Technology Developments - Nvidia's stock rose by 4.04% to $170.7, reaching a market capitalization of $4.17 trillion, following the approval of H20 chip sales to China [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][6]. - Copper prices are supported by the firm domestic spot market [2][10]. - Zinc is under pressure and expected to operate under stress [2][13]. - The downside for lead prices may be relatively limited [2][16]. - Tin prices are weakening [2][19]. - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season, alumina will fluctuate within a range, and the operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining [2][23]. - The support from the nickel ore end has loosened, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily and night - session fluctuations. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D showed different trends, with some increases and some decreases. Trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. The US Treasury Secretary said there was no need to worry about the deadline for suspending the imposition of some tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation situation was good [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - positive outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly, while the London Copper 3M electronic disk rose slightly. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various spot - related price differences all changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There were also news about trade tariffs and copper trade activities [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [16]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Tin main contract and the London Tin 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, there were news about the US CPI and trade - related events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had different degrees of change. There were also data on inventories, production costs, and corporate profits [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There was also news about the US - China tariff negotiation situation [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and various price - related data of nickel and stainless steel futures had corresponding changes. There were also data on the industrial chain, such as the prices of high - nickel pig iron and the profit margins of nickel plate imports [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the production status of nickel - related projects in Indonesia, and the environmental issues in the Indonesian nickel - mining area [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].

特朗普表示，根据与印尼达成的新协议，美国将对来自印尼的商品征收19%的关税，还称正在商讨更多协议，他将继续争取与贸易伙伴达成他认为更好的协议，以及一条降低美国巨额贸易逆差的路径。 ...

Group 1 - President Trump announced that tariffs will begin on August 1, with agreements with Vietnam and Indonesia nearly finalized [1][2] - Tariffs for smaller countries are expected to be "slightly above 10%" [2] - The U.S. has sent letters to over 20 country leaders regarding new tariffs starting August 1, including a 50% tariff on all copper imports [1][2] Group 2 - A significant agreement was reached with Indonesia, where Indonesia will purchase $15 billion in U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [3][4] - Indonesia will impose a 19% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., while U.S. exports to Indonesia will enjoy tariff-free treatment [4] - Similar trade agreements are reportedly in progress [5] Group 3 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney expressed skepticism about the U.S. willingness to reach agreements without imposing tariffs, indicating that most countries may have to accept some baseline tariffs [6] - Negotiations with the U.S. are expected to intensify in the coming weeks [7] Group 4 - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced a "301 investigation" into Brazil, focusing on unfair trade practices related to digital trade, electronic payment services, and other issues [8]

Group 1 - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase due to strong industrial production data from China, offsetting the impact of rising available inventory and a stronger dollar [1] - As of July 15, LME three-month copper closed at $9,645.50 per ton, up $26.50 or 0.28%, but has declined over 2% since the beginning of the month [1][2] - The copper price has retreated from a three-month high of $10,020 per ton reached in early July [1] Group 2 - Commodity Market Analytics predicts that copper prices may fall to around $9,585 per ton in the short term [3] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its August LME copper price forecast from $10,050 per ton to $9,550 per ton, while maintaining long-term forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at $9,700, $10,000, and $10,750 per ton respectively [5] - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. has made exports to the U.S. less attractive for other countries, leading to a decrease in LME canceled warrants to 11% of total inventory, the lowest level in five months [4] Group 3 - Recent data from China's National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the production of primary aluminum in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with a cumulative production of 22.38 million tons in the first half of the year, up 3.3% [5] - In June 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China reached 6.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with a cumulative production of 40.32 million tons in the first half of the year, up 2.9% [5]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is a growing concern over tariffs leading to increased inflation, which has prompted investors to increase their bearish bets on U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds, which have seen yields surpass 5% [1][5] - A significant increase in bearish positions has been noted, with traders betting that the 30-year Treasury yield will rise to approximately 5.3% within about five weeks, with total premiums for related options reaching $10 million [3] - The options market is reflecting a pessimistic outlook, with a surge in demand for hedging against rising yields and further selling of long-term bonds, as indicated by the highest level of option premiums in a month [4] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently exceeded 5%, marking a new high since early June, indicating a return to the high range of long-term interest rates for the year [5] - The skew indicator for the 30-year Treasury bonds has sharply shifted towards bearish options premiums over the past week, indicating a lack of meaningful incremental demand to support long-term bonds despite higher yields [6] - The municipal bond market has also faced significant pressure, with the benchmark yield for 10-year municipal bonds rising by 8 basis points to 3.25%, continuing the downward trend seen in Treasury bonds [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Logan indicates that economic models show tariffs have a one-time impact on prices, but the scale of tariffs assumed in the models is significantly smaller [1] Group 1 - The economic models utilized by the Federal Reserve suggest that the effect of tariffs on prices is not ongoing but rather a one-time adjustment [1] - The assumptions made in these models regarding the scale of tariffs are much lower than current levels, indicating a potential underestimation of the impact of larger tariffs [1]

美国达拉斯联储主席Logan：关税的影响至少要到秋季才会明朗。 ...

美国总统特朗普：对当前的协议感到满意，将很快发布关于小国的关税信函。 ...