Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Vice President Alckmin stated that potential tariffs on Brazil could lead to an increase in product prices in the U.S. market [1] Group 1 - The imposition of tariffs on Brazilian goods may have direct implications for pricing strategies in the U.S. market [1]

花旗首席执行官：，预计随着关税的生效，商品价格将在今年夏季开始逐步上涨。 ...

根据劳工部最新发布的物价数据，美国通胀有重新抬头的迹象，投资者仍然在评估美联储降息的可能性。收获众多利好的英伟达，则带领美股继续上涨。 数据公布后，股票市场表现平稳。周二股市开盘后，三大股票指数表现涨跌不一，道琼斯指数下跌0.1%，标普500指数上涨0.36%，纳斯达克指数上涨 0.73%。最新数据显示，美联储将在7月底开会时按兵不动，然后在9月降息25个百分点。 此前通胀指标连续下降，美国总统特朗普持续敦促美联储降息，并表示关税不会加剧通胀。但美联储拒绝让步。货币政策委员会的多位官员坚持认为，美 国经济现在处于足够强大的位置。而特朗普则持续施压鲍威尔辞职，并表示肯定会在2026年5月主席任期届满前就任命其他人担任该职位。 美联储主席换人？ 特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的施压不仅仅在社交媒体上，白宫的多位官员在公开场合均在配合特朗普的"演出"。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二透露， 遴选美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔潜在继任者的"正式程序"已经启动。 通胀抬头 美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，作为衡量商品和服务成本的广泛指标，消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%，为2月以来的新 高。剔除波动性较大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum witnessing sharp declines after reaching historical highs, primarily due to profit-taking, inflation data concerns, and new tariff threats from the U.S. government [1][2][8]. Market Performance - On July 14, cryptocurrencies surged, with Bitcoin reaching a new high of over $123,000. However, on July 15, Bitcoin's price dropped by over 5%, hitting a low of approximately $116,300. Other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and Chainlink also saw declines exceeding 6% and 5%, respectively [2][4]. - Over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 traders were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation amount of $493 million, predominantly from long positions [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing expectations of 2.6%. The month-on-month increase was 0.3%, aligning with market predictions [5][6]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations but slightly higher than the previous value of 2.8% [6][7]. Tariff Developments - President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if an agreement is not reached within 50 days, which has heightened investor caution in the cryptocurrency market [8][9]. - The European Union is preparing to impose additional tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, indicating potential trade tensions that could impact market sentiment [9][10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non - ferrous Metals Derivatives Daily Report [1][6] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, down 0.26%, and the Shanghai Copper index increased by 2,144 lots to 512,300 lots [2] - Spot: In the East China market, the monthly spread converged significantly, downstream consumption was weak, and the premium opened high and went low; in the Guangdong market, inventory increased for 2 consecutive days, and downstream consumption was inactive; in the North China market, the monthly spread structure reversed on the delivery day, and the spot premium and discount rose sharply, but the trading activity was not high [3] Important Information - GDP: In the first half of the year, the GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year [4] - Imports: In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In June, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [4] Logic Analysis - Tariffs: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st with a rate of 50%. The US's siphoning of refined copper from the world is nearing its end. Before August 1st, in - transit supplies will continue to arrive at ports, and the Comex copper inventory will continue to increase. After that, the supply to the US will decrease significantly, and the supply shortage in non - US regions will be alleviated [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific strategy mentioned - Arbitrage: No specific strategy mentioned - Options: No specific strategy mentioned Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 38 yuan to 3,165 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,337 lots to 413,800 lots [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of Alumina by Aladdin rose 5 yuan to 3,175 yuan; the national weighted index rose 8.6 yuan to 3,210.8 yuan [9] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, emphasizing the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [10] - Inventory: As of July 15th, the alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 25,526 tons, a net increase of 2,111 tons [11] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: The operating capacity of alumina remained flat week - on - week, but production was still increasing. The supply - demand pattern of alumina in July will gradually evolve from a tight balance to a structural surplus, but the demand for warehouse receipts may disperse the pressure of spot surplus [14] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strong and volatile, high - selling and low - buying within the range [15] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 20,430 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 8,776 lots to 635,800 lots [18] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,510 yuan, up 50 yuan; in South China, it was 20,500 yuan, up 40 yuan; in the Central Plains, it was 20,380 yuan, up 50 yuan [18] Relevant Information - Inventory: On July 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets decreased by 0.3 tons compared with the previous trading day [19] - Industry: In May 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.92GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.03%. From January to May, the cumulative installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 149.97% [19] Trading Logic - Macro: The US tariff negotiation deadline was postponed to August 1st. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings this month [22] - Supply - demand: The negative feedback of the fundamentals is still there. The production of aluminum rods has been reduced for three consecutive weeks, and the ingot casting has increased, driving up the inventory of aluminum ingots in social warehouses. The demand in the off - season may not be too weak [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels in the short term, maintaining a bearish mindset [23] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract remained flat at 19,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 31 lots to 9,982 lots [25] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China remained flat at 19,600 yuan/ton, and the imported price remained flat at 19,300 yuan/ton [25] Relevant Information - Production: In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, of which the output of ADC12 increased by 2.46 million tons to 32.6 million tons [25] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 26,680 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from the previous trading day [26] Trading Logic - Supply: Enterprises are generally active in shipping, but actual transactions are blocked. The supply of deliverable products is stable, and non - deliverable product inventory is transferred to social inventory. Raw materials are in short supply [27] - Demand: Downstream die - casting enterprises generally have insufficient orders, mostly replenish inventory in small quantities as needed or consume inventory, and postpone purchases except for rigid demand [27] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Under pressure at high levels, maintaining a bearish mindset [30] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan; consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 400 yuan [30] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [30] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.54% to 22,085 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc index decreased by 1,770 lots to 236,500 lots [31] - Spot: In the Shanghai market, traders continued to actively sell goods. In the morning, the zinc price on the disk dropped, and some downstream enterprises placed orders to pick up goods. Some traders reported that spot transactions had improved [31] Relevant Information - Production: A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a regular maintenance for half a month in August, which is expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production [32] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major markets was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with July 7th [32] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, the domestic zinc supply continues to increase, consumption has entered the off - season, and social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. Zinc prices may be under pressure to decline due to fundamentals [32] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and short positions can still be added at high prices [35] - Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options [35] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [35] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract fell 0.76% to 16,930 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead index increased by 1,494 lots to 96,300 lots [37] - Spot: On July 15th, the average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. Refined lead holders' quotes followed the decline slightly [37] Relevant Information - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major markets was 63,400 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with July 7th [38] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, recycled lead is still in a loss - making situation, and the willingness to start production is difficult to improve. In July, there are maintenance plans for domestic primary lead smelting, which will have a certain impact on primary lead supply. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and the production of battery enterprises has improved [39] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range [40] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [40] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [40] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 fell 1,390 to 119,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 14,499 lots [42] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained flat at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of electrowon nickel remained flat at 100 yuan/ton [42] Relevant Information - Exploration: Canadian Nickel Company announced positive results from its latest exploration drilling at the MacDiarmid project, discovering a new mineralized area [43] - Production: In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4% [43] Logic Analysis - Market: The market's concern about US tariffs has resurfaced, and commodities generally fell overnight. The supply and demand of refined nickel are both weak in the off - season, and the short - term inventory is steadily increasing slightly [45] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Weakening in a volatile manner [45] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [46] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [47] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 rose 10 to 12,695 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 11,703 lots [49] - Spot: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel was 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled stainless steel was 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton [49] Relevant Information - Transaction: On July 14th, a stainless steel plant in South China purchased high - nickel pig iron at a price of 900 yuan/nickel point, with a total transaction volume of over 10,000 tons and a delivery period in mid - to - late August [50] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Stainless steel's external demand is restricted by tariffs and re - export obstacles, and domestic demand has also entered the off - season. The demand is not optimistic, and it is difficult to absorb the current inventory pressure [50] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [51] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [52] Group 10: Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 8,785 yuan/ton, up 2.81% [54] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened significantly during the day, generally rising by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [56] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, the US Department of Commerce launched a 232 - clause investigation into imported drones and their components, as well as polysilicon and its derivatives [57] Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand: The production of leading large - scale factories has been reduced by nearly 40%, with a monthly output reduction of 60,000 tons; southwest silicon factories are gradually resuming production, with a monthly output increase of about 40,000 tons. In July, the output of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons [58] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term [58] - Options: None for now [58] - Arbitrage: Stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [58] Group 11: Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market news, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell during the day, closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [59] - Spot: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network statistics, the spot price of polysilicon was adjusted downward during the day, and the average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg [59] Relevant Information - Market: After SMM's research, the market views and price adjustment trends of the top 5 component factories are divergent. Some leading component enterprises have officially raised the distributed guidance price [60] Comprehensive Analysis - Price: If a fixed price is set as the minimum price limit for the polysilicon industry, the high point of the polysilicon futures price will be the industry's minimum price limit. It is expected that the polysilicon futures price will fluctuate in the range of (37,000, 45,000) in the short term [63] Strategy - Unilateral: Long positions should consider taking profits [64] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [64] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [64] Group 12: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose 140 to 66,100 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 12,117 lots, and the warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1 to 11,203 tons [65] - Spot: The SMM - quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 63,300 yuan/ton [65] Relevant Information - Project: On the evening of July 14th, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary's invested company, Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., received a mining license [66] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Recently, there have been many supply - side disturbance news, but it has not had a substantial impact on production. The supply elasticity of domestic lithium salts is still large. In July, the off - season is not weak, and the price is difficult to fall deeply [67] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Avoid risks in the short term and wait for the right - hand short - selling opportunity [70] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [70] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [70] Group 13: Industry Data - Multiple metal varieties' daily data tables are provided, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate

Group 1 - Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's next steps [1][4] - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields declining [1][4] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the inflation report on July 15 at 8:30 AM ET [3] Group 2 - Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the overall inflation rate for June to rise from 2.4% in May to 2.7%, while core inflation is anticipated to increase from 2.8% to 3.0% [4] - The consumer price index for June is projected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May, with housing prices expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, the largest increase since January [4] - If tariffs begin to show a significant impact on the CPI data, the U.S. bond market may experience sell-offs due to heightened inflation risks [5] Group 3 - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy in the current quarter, despite ongoing risks such as tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about lowering short-term interest rates until they observe how the economy reacts to the tariffs [5] - The White House has criticized the Federal Reserve's management, particularly regarding the renovation costs of its buildings, which have exceeded initial budgets by approximately one-third [6] Group 4 - In the European market, bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 2.707% [7] - The UK market is facing investor concerns due to economic slowdown and rising government debt nearing 100% of GDP [7] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Japanese yen has depreciated against major currencies, raising concerns about Japan's economic slowdown [8]

经济学家：关税对通胀的影响没有想象的那么大 金十数据7月15日讯，威斯康星州经济学家Brian Jacobsen表示："关税的影响已体现在数据中，但并未 像许多人担心的那样具有破坏性。家电、家庭设备及家具价格上涨了近2%，但这些品类仅占消费者价 格指数的1%左右。服务在消费篮子中占大头，而目前几乎没有迹象表明服务类通胀在加速。租金上涨 0.2%，非家庭住宿价格下降2.9%。这并非说关税无关紧要，只是它们对通胀的影响，无论是程度还是 机制上，都没有许多人担心的那么大。" ...

金十数据7月15日讯，分析师Omair Sharif及其所创办的"通胀洞察"研究公司认为，6月通胀数据中能看 出关税的影响痕迹。他在报告中写道："今日公布的数据显示，关税开始产生实质影响。"他指出，若剔 除价格下降的汽车品类，上月核心商品价格上涨0.55%，为2021年11月以来的最大单月涨幅。6月，服 务品类价格增速放缓帮助抑制了整体通胀。但这种情况可能不会持续，Sharif写道："我不认为未来核心 服务价格的走弱能继续抑制核心商品价格的预期上涨。" 分析师：6月通胀数据中能看出关税的影响痕迹 ...

【导读】 美国6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，环比上涨0.2%，连续5个月低于预期！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美国最新的CPI数据， 该数据将影响美联储降息的决策。 美国核心CPI连续第五个月低于预期 美国6月核心通胀再次低于预期，已是连续第五个月，这主要受到汽车价格下跌的拖累。 7月15日晚间， 根据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）较5月上涨 0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 高盛经济学家估计，美国消费者最终将承担约70%的关税直接成本。沃尔玛5月表示，迫于关税压力将被迫涨价。服装品牌拉夫 ·劳伦也表示正在考虑提价。 芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比上周五表示，持续的关税威胁使判断通胀走向变得更困难。他说："我们不断往里面添加新的不 确定因素，导致很难弄清楚'价格到底会上涨还是不会'，就像又把灰尘扬上了天。" 在商品方面，剔除食品和能源的大宗商品价格继上月持平后，本月上涨0.2%。值得注意的是，受关税影响较大的类别（如玩 具、家具、家电和服装）价格出现上涨，显示企业开始把更高的进口成本转嫁给消费者。与此同时，新车和二手车价格下降。 这份报告标志着通胀 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends and their implications for monetary policy, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [13][17]. - The overall CPI stands at 2.7%, with specific categories showing varied inflation rates, such as food at 5.6% and energy at -0.8% [4][7]. - The article discusses the regional CPI variations, with the South region showing the lowest CPI at 2.3% and the New England region at 3.1% [10][12]. Group 2 - Analysts express skepticism about the CPI report prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before September, citing the impact of upcoming tariffs [16][18]. - The article notes that the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen significantly from 2.4% in January to 20.6% by mid-July, the highest level since 1910, which may contribute to inflationary pressures [17]. - There are indications of economic weakness, with some service prices showing signs of consumer confidence fragility, despite certain goods experiencing price increases [18].