Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing complexity of investment decisions in the volatile financial markets of 2025, necessitating advanced analytical tools like Macro Global Markets for effective navigation through data [1] Market Trends and Analysis - The Macro Global Markets tool features a global policy simulator that captures the impact of central bank policy changes across 132 economies, breaking down the effects of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve into three phases: currency transmission (48 hours), bond market response (72 hours), and stock valuation restructuring (120 hours) [2] - The tool's "manufacturing GPS" capability utilizes 23 alternative data types, such as global port throughput and industrial electricity consumption, to predict manufacturing trends in emerging markets, with a lead time of 6-8 months [4] Strategic Insights - The "correlation matrix" function in the tool identifies hidden relationships in cross-market arbitrage, such as the correlation between the Brazilian real and the Norwegian krone rising from 0.32 to 0.81 when oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, aiding hedge funds in capturing arbitrage opportunities [5] - A unique three-layer defense mechanism in the "black swan warning system" scans media sentiment, analyzes shipping signal anomalies, and monitors dark web data to provide timely alternative route cost assessments when disruptions occur [5] User Guidance and Features - For new users, the "three-screen linked workstation" setup is recommended, which includes a U.S. Treasury yield curve, an industry rotation heatmap, and a commodity term structure monitor to stabilize market volatility [6] - Advanced users can activate the "Alpha Hunter" module, which integrates machine learning with fundamental analysis to generate decision trees based on specific investment themes, enhancing the precision of investment strategies [6] Practical Applications - The "data time machine" feature allows users to analyze historical events and their impacts, such as comparing the recent TSMC incident with past semiconductor disruptions to assess market implications [9] - The "volatility topography" function assists in risk management by simulating asset rebalancing paths under different interest rate scenarios, effectively controlling portfolio volatility during market fluctuations [9] - The Macro Global Markets tool is positioned as a comprehensive decision-making system that combines macro and micro perspectives, redefining market analysis in a new era of financial volatility [9]

摩根大通的报告显示，今年迄今，对冲基金净套现1万亿美元，与此同时，散户每月净购买股票500亿美 元，而且"几乎没有中断"。这一动态颠覆了华尔街关于投资者在市场动荡期间的行为的传统观念。 华尔街长期以来一直称散户是"傻钱"（dumb money），因为散户倾向于根据恐惧和贪婪做出决定。相比 之下，对冲基金和机构投资者被称为"聪明钱"（smart money），因为他们历来能够依靠大量数据和分 析，忽视情绪驱动的波动。今年以来的数据显示，关于这些群体行为的流行观念越来越与现实脱节。 事实上，近年来大型基金在经济衰退时更有可能逃离市场，以避免潜在损失。散户也改变了他们的投资方 式。被动管理的指数基金以及401(k)计划多年来从每次下跌都能获得回报，这意味着，当市场变得疯狂 时，很多散户不再争相退出，而是持有或者继续加仓。 对冲基金长期资本（Long-Term capital）前合伙人Victor Haghani表示："散户投资者充斥着这些庞大的资 本池，他们的行为非常明智"。Victor Haghani现在经营着管理Elm Market Navigator ETF的咨询公司Elm Wealth。 Wind 数据显示 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss of $10.6 million or $0.15 per share, with a book value of $14.44 per share, down approximately 2% from the prior quarter [4][13] - Distributable earnings for the quarter were $17 million or $0.25 per share, aligning with the dividend payout [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed four loans totaling $376 million, primarily secured by Class A multifamily properties, with a weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) of 69% and a coupon of SOFR plus 277 basis points [11] - Repayments in the quarter amounted to $184 million, contributing to net fundings of $222 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The pipeline reached a record high of over $30 billion, indicating strong market demand despite increased spreads in various loan sectors [10] - Warehouse financing and senior loan spreads widened by approximately 10 to 15 basis points, while transitional loan sector spreads increased by 15 to 20 basis points [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a defensive posture while actively seeking new investment opportunities, particularly in the European lending market [7][11] - The strategy includes diversifying the portfolio and adding duration, with a strong emphasis on high-quality assets [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about market volatility and recession expectations but believes real estate is better positioned compared to past cycles [6] - The company anticipates that repayments will exceed $1 billion this year, tracking well above previous expectations [10] Other Important Information - The company has no corporate maturities until February 2030 and has ample liquidity of over $700 million [7][18] - The CECL reserve increased to $144 million due to two loan downgrades, but 90% of the loan portfolio remains risk-rated three or better [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about macro issues and dividend policy - Management is monitoring both macroeconomic conditions and specific portfolio risks, noting that while there is heightened awareness, no specific asset is of particular concern [25][30] - Regarding the dividend policy, management feels comfortable with the current level and will evaluate it quarterly, considering the potential for future earnings growth from REO assets [32][33] Question: Originating in Europe and leveraging repayments - The company has been actively originating in Europe and expects to close deals soon, focusing on Western Europe and the UK [40] - Management indicated that while leverage is currently at 3.9 times, they are tracking repayments ahead of schedule and will focus on origination to maximize earnings [42][44] Question: Downgrade of Raleigh multifamily loan - The downgrade was due to the inability to drive rents in the submarket, with the property being on the watch list for some time [50][51] Question: Life Science sector outlook - Management believes that the life science sector has long-term positive fundamentals but faces cyclical headwinds, with expectations for a recovery depending on the economic environment [54][80] Question: New lending opportunities and market conditions - The current opportunity set allows for lending at lower valuations, with a shift towards more stabilized assets rather than transitional ones [60][62] - The company is seeing a significant amount of refinancing activity, with around 70% of the pipeline focused on refinancing rather than new acquisitions [67] Question: Portfolio growth expectations - Management anticipates some incremental growth in the portfolio but is approaching the upper limit of target leverage [76]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有偏离自己制定的投资计划。 第二是我们在定投的时候，要综合考虑自 己的心理承受能力和投入的资金量。 定投开始时投入的钱不多，所以心理压 力会小一点。 IEA J V L J F J F J F J F J L L J ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 而如果遇到下跌的时候感到恐慌，往往 说明这个时候你投的钱可能超出自己的 心理承受能力了。 投的钱越多，心理压力越大。这时候可 能就容易头脑一昏，做出错误的决策。 因此,最好用长期不用的闲钱投资,这笔 钱是遇到下跌你也不慌的金额。 说一个极端的例子，就是这笔钱哪怕打 水漂了，你也不会觉得心疼的那种。 这种程度的资金,做长期投资更容易坚 挂下求。 ...

美联储哈玛克：近期几周市场明显波动但仍保持正常运作。 ...

进群直击关税热点 特朗普暂缓"对等关税"90天，不确定性加剧市场波动！如何把握这段关键期的交易机会？邀你加入国信 期货首席分析师顾冯达的圈子，直击关税风暴的危与机 相关链接 ...

挪威主权财富基金首席执行官：4月份市场波动剧烈，这是自疫情以来未曾出现过的高度波动期。 ...

在基金经理普遍看空美股之际，个人投资者正涌入市场，押注单一股票和高杠杆工具，希望从剧烈波动 中获取巨额回报。 4月22日美银发布报告，在上周标普500指数下跌1.5%的背景下，客户首次在三周内净抛售美国股票， 总额达16亿美元。ETF市场也出现五周以来首次抛售，虽然单个股票仍有小幅净买入。 值得注意的是，机构客户和对冲基金延续了之前的卖出趋势，而零售投资者连续第19周净买入，创下自 2008年有数据以来年初最长买入纪录。 据媒体报道，摩根大通数据也表明，从特朗普宣布所谓对等关税到4月16日，个人投资者净买入价值210 亿美元的股票和ETF，与基金经理对美国股票的普遍看空形成鲜明对比。 当今年4月初市场暴跌、投资者抛售数万亿美元股票的那一天，37岁的营销总监Dan Oksnevad并没有随 波逐流。相反，他将自己90%的七位数投资组合（包括退休基金）全部押注在比特币及相关股票上。尽 管比特币当天下跌了近6%，但Oksnevad表示： 这简直是一个大声呼喊的买入机会，我就是在追求几周或几个月内获得数十年的回报。我真 心相信，市场波动是创造财富的地方。 华尔街基金谨慎看空美股 美银报告指出，在近期的市场波动中，华尔 ...

特斯拉(TSLA.O)：提高关税可能引发市场波动，并对短期供需造成影响。 ...

野村控股(NMR.US)告诉客户，在贸易紧张局势不断升级、金融市场陷入动荡之际，仍要保持投资。野 村以18亿美元收购麦格理在美国和欧洲的资产管理业务，揽入约1800亿美元的客户资产，其中约90%来 自美国。野村投资管理公司董事长Christopher Willcox在接受采访时说："我们不断告诉客户，在短期波 动中保持投资。所以，如果我们自己不表现出这些行为，我们就不会特别可信。" 自特朗普本月早些时候宣布全面征收关税以来，美国股票、债券和美元面临抛售压力。Willcox说，最 近的动荡并没有改变美国仍然是世界上最大的资产管理市场的事实。他表示，野村正寻求扩大业务规 模，以产生稳定的收入，并在国内零售业务、交易和投资银行业务之外实现多元化。 Willcox表示，野村至少考察了20个不同的潜在收购目标。未来，它可能会考虑进行一些附加交易，以 拓展现有平台。曾担任摩根大通资产管理业务主管的Willcox表示："显然，在如此剧烈的波动中进行这 笔交易具有挑战性，而且难度更大。但我认为，从两方面来看，我们都觉得这笔交易反映了当前的市场 状况。" Willcox指出，在过去的30到50年里，很多人都因为做空美国市场而赔 ...