点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 这份财报引发了摩根大通对其增长前景和高估值的严重担忧。摩根大通指出， 财报呈现的种种迹象已非增 长型公司特征，其基本面恶化将带来显著下行风险， 下调其目标价至115美元，重申"减持"评级。 摩根士丹利虽也下调了近期盈利预测，但维持"增持"评级，并大幅上调公司目标价到410美元， 仍看好特 斯拉作为"电动汽车一哥"的优势，并寄望于马斯克回归以及自动驾驶及机器人业务的长期愿景。 01 摩根大通：基本面崩溃速度超预期 根据摩根大通分析师Ryan Brinkman的分析，特斯拉一季度的财报证明其业务基本面正以比该行或市场普 遍预期更快的速度恶化，其增长故事已经结束。 摩根大通认为，特斯拉一季度表现远不及预期，其基本面恶化的速度比预期更快，增长故事已经结束；摩根士丹利则认 为，尽管一季度盈利遇到困难，但考虑到马斯克已将注意力从DOGE转回特斯拉，公司在自动驾驶和机器人方面取得的进 展足以支撑长期估值。 硬·AI 作者 | 李笑寅 编辑 | 硬 AI 特斯拉第一季度业绩"拉跨"，但分析师观点大相径庭，谁说了算？ 周三，特斯拉公布的2025年一季度财报显示，因主营业务汽车拉跨，公司Q1盈利和收 ...

事件：2025 年4 月23 日，公司发布2024 年年报，2024 全年实现营业收入266.00 亿元，同比增长 35.02%，归母净利润30.01 亿元，同比增长39.52%，实现扣非归母净利润27.28 亿元，同比增长 35.00%。 全球化战略持续推进，灵活应对海外贸易环境变化。公司持续推进海外本地化产能建设，目前墨西哥一 期已全部投产，墨西哥二期项目与波关于期工厂已开始筹划。公司泰国基地筹建工作正在加速进行，海 外布局的完善有望助力公司灵活应对海外贸易环境变化，同时进一步辐射海外市场，为公司拓展国际客 户奠定坚实基础。 收入高增摊薄费用，盈利能力逆势提升。2024 年公司期间费用率8.58%，同步-0.94pct，其中销售/管理/ 研发/财务费用率分别为1.03%/2.33%/4.60%/0.62%，同比分别-0.28pct/-0.43pct/-0.41pct/+0.18pct，在各项 费用均有所增长的背景下，公司收入的高速增长显著摊薄费用，带动费用率实现下降。2024 年公司毛 利率20.80%，较2023 年的23.03%同比下滑2.23pct，考虑到会计准则调整，回溯调整后公司2023 年毛利 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report showed significant underperformance, with both profit and revenue falling short of Wall Street expectations, leading to a negative assessment from analysts [1][2] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects despite recent challenges, maintaining a bullish rating and raising the target price significantly [1][4] Financial Performance - Tesla's Q1 total revenue decreased by 9% year-over-year to $19.3 billion, which was 3% lower than Morgan Stanley's forecast and 10% below Bloomberg's consensus [2][3] - The automotive business revenue fell by 20% year-over-year to $14 billion, marking a 30% decline compared to two years ago, the lowest quarterly revenue since Q3 2021 [2][3] - Free cash flow for Q1 was reported at $700 million, below expectations of $900 million and Bloomberg's forecast of $1.1 billion, attributed to higher-than-expected inventory levels [3] Analyst Ratings and Target Prices - Morgan Stanley downgraded its adjusted EPS forecast for 2025 from $2.11 to $1.59 and projected a free cash flow loss of approximately $300 million [4] - Morgan Stanley set a target price of $410, reflecting confidence in Tesla's market position and future growth potential [5] - Morgan Chase lowered its target price from $120 to $115, reiterating a "reduce" rating due to concerns over the company's growth narrative and fundamental deterioration [1][3] Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of patience for investors, suggesting that the transition to revenue and cash flow from autonomous driving remains a key focus [5] - Analysts highlight that Tesla's core automotive gross margin, excluding ZEV credits, is at a 12-year low of 12.5%, indicating potential challenges ahead [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a robust performance in 2024, with total revenue reaching 26.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year [7] - The automotive electronics segment significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a staggering 907.63% increase in revenue [7] - The company is expanding into the robotics sector, which is expected to open new growth avenues [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted downwards due to client production line changes, with net profit estimates of 3.554 billion yuan and 4.460 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 19.701 billion yuan (2023A), 26.600 billion yuan (2024A), 32.879 billion yuan (2025E), 40.774 billion yuan (2026E), and 48.929 billion yuan (2027E) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 2.151 billion yuan in 2023A to 5.652 billion yuan in 2027E [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to increase from 1.24 yuan in 2023A to 3.25 yuan in 2027E [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 41.85 in 2023A to 15.93 in 2027E, indicating a potential for value appreciation [1]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车零部件 拓普集团（601689） 2024 年年报点评：业绩稳健向好，机器人打 开成长空间 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 19,701 | 26,600 | 32,879 | 40,774 | 48,929 | | 同比（%） | 23.18 | 35.02 | 23.60 | 24.01 | 20.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,151 | 3,001 | 3,554 | 4,460 | 5,652 | | 同比（%） | 26.49 | 39.52 | 18.46 | 25.47 | 26.72 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.24 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 2.57 | 3.25 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.85 | 29.99 | 25.32 | 20.18 | 15.93 | [Table_Tag] [Tab ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Companies and Industry Involved - **Companies**: SaiLisi (赛力斯) and HuGuang Co., Ltd. (沪光股份) - **Industry**: Automotive and Robotics Key Points and Arguments SaiLisi (赛力斯) - The M8 model has exceeded expectations with daily orders reaching 32,000 and weekly orders hitting 50,000, suggesting a potential monthly sales of over 20,000 units, significantly higher than the initial M9 performance [2][4] - SaiLisi's stock performance was weak at the beginning of the year due to overall automotive industry downturn and underwhelming earnings forecasts, but the market's pessimism has been fully priced in, leading to a rapid rebound following the successful launch of new models [2][4] - The company has ambitious sales targets, aiming for 1 million units by 2027, with projected sales of 450,000 to 500,000 units in 2025, indicating substantial growth potential [2][5] - The M8 model's strong market acceptance and improved supply chain readiness are expected to drive significant sales growth [2][4] - New product launches, including models priced below 250,000, are anticipated to further enhance sales elasticity and market presence [4][5] HuGuang Co., Ltd. (沪光股份) - HuGuang, as a key supplier to SaiLisi, benefits from the latter's sales growth and is actively expanding its customer base, with an estimated valuation of 13 to 15 times earnings [2][6] - The company has made significant advancements in the connector field, addressing low domestic production rates and enhancing its competitive edge in harness systems [6][7] - In the robotics harness sector, HuGuang is in contact with key clients and is leading the development of relevant standards, although the market has yet to reflect the potential of its robotics business [6][8] - Despite short-term stock performance challenges, HuGuang's strong capabilities and growth trajectory in the automotive wiring sector position it for future success, with a potential market value of 20 billion [6][8] - For investors concerned about SaiLisi's growth potential, HuGuang presents a more attractive risk-reward profile due to its lower valuation and high growth prospects in the robotics sector [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The automotive market's overall performance and the impact of external factors such as tariffs have been acknowledged, with the expectation that these influences will stabilize [4] - The strategic importance of timing and valuation in HuGuang's vehicle business is emphasized, particularly in relation to market conditions earlier in the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Disen Co., Ltd. (300335), is currently facing challenges with its stock price remaining low for seven years, prompting questions about potential industry risks and the need for transformation [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of April 11, 2025, Disen Co., Ltd. closed at 4.67 yuan, down 1.27%, with a turnover rate of 3.91%, a trading volume of 150,100 shares, and a transaction value of 70.5645 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds was 3.0459 million yuan, accounting for 4.32% of the total transaction value, while the net inflow of speculative funds was 3.3205 million yuan, representing 4.71% of the total transaction value. In contrast, retail investors experienced a net outflow of 6.3665 million yuan, which made up 9.02% of the total transaction value [2]. Group 2: Business Operations - The company currently does not have any plans to enter the robotics business [2]. - Disen Co., Ltd. has not undertaken any projects related to data centers or server farms [2]. - The company’s equipment is not involved in nuclear fusion applications [2]. - The company has only engaged in foreign exchange hedging business in 2024, achieving an investment income of 304,600 yuan, and has not conducted commodity futures hedging [2]. - The company’s heat pump products are not currently targeting the automotive sector [2]. - There is no separate statistical disclosure regarding the sales share of air energy heat pumps [2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the company is limited, as its overseas business accounts for a small proportion of total operations, and it does not have any agricultural technology business [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from equipment renewal policies and overseas expansion opportunities, with industrial AI opening up long-term growth potential [4][6] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 6.02% year-on-year increase in operating income for 2024, reaching 9.139 billion yuan [5][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 1.117 billion yuan, a 1.38% year-on-year increase, while excluding GDR exchange gains, the net profit grew by 20.26% [5][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating income of 91.39 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.02% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.38% [5] - The gross profit margin improved to 33.86%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s overseas revenue reached 749 million yuan in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 118.27% [6] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.292 billion, 1.508 billion, and 1.769 billion yuan respectively [4] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.63, 1.91, and 2.24 yuan per share respectively [4] Market Position - The company is a leader in the process industrial intelligent manufacturing sector, with increasing market share in the petrochemical and chemical industries [6] - The company has successfully launched its first UCS universal control system and TPT time series industrial model, achieving significant breakthroughs in various client applications [7] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 32.5, 27.8, and 23.7 for 2025-2027 [4][8] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 4.3 in 2023 to 3.0 by 2027 [8]

0 1 事 件 概 述 * [16] A. A. K. ► 2024 年营收稳健增长 盈利水平短期承压 公司披露 2024 年年度报告， 2024 年营收为 67.5 亿元，同比 +13.2% ，归母净利 9.4 亿元，同比 +2.9% ； 2024Q4 营收为 1 7.7 亿元， 同比 +2.9% ，环比 +2.7% ，归母净利 2.0 亿元，同比 -37.4% ，环比 -32.3%。 1 ）营收端： 公司 2024 年营收 67.5 亿元，同比 +13.2% ，其中 2024Q4 营收 17.7 亿元，同比 +2.9% ，环比 +2.7% ，主要原因系：传统 小件业务在手订单陆续释放 + 中大件核心客户销量增长（理想汽车 2024Q4 销量 15.9 万辆，同比 +20.4% ，环比 +3.8% ）； 2 ）毛利端： 公司 2024 年毛利率为 27.7% ，同比 -1.7pcts ， 其中 2024Q4 毛利率为 23.7% ，同比 -5.7pcts ，环比 -6.0pcts ，主要原 因系：①铝价上升（ 2024Q4 铝锭价格同比 +8.1% ，环比 +5.1% ）；②固定资产折摊压力增大（ 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [15]. Core Insights - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the penetration of intelligent driving (ID) technology, with BYD significantly enhancing consumer awareness of ID features, particularly among users in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan and above 400,000 yuan price segments [5][6]. - Both Seres and Xpeng Motors are positioned as leaders in the high-end ID sector, benefiting from their technological maturity and user experience, despite competition from companies like Geely and Chery [5][6]. - The product iteration and market performance of both companies are noteworthy, with Xpeng planning multiple model upgrades and new launches, while Seres has seen strong pre-sale orders for its flagship models [7][8]. - The robotics business is emerging as a significant avenue for valuation expansion for both companies, with Xpeng's bionic robot set to be mass-produced by 2026 and Seres leveraging Huawei's technology for its robotics initiatives [8]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving Technology - The report highlights that 2025 will mark the acceleration of ID technology adoption, with BYD leading in consumer education and awareness [5][6]. - Seres and Xpeng are expected to benefit significantly from this trend due to their advanced ID technologies and positive user feedback [5][6]. New Vehicle Cycle - Xpeng plans to launch several upgraded models, including the G6, G9, X9, and P7i, alongside new models like G7 and G01, which are expected to stimulate market demand [7]. - Seres has received an overwhelming response for its M9 and M8 models, with pre-sale orders exceeding expectations, indicating strong market interest [7]. Robotics Business - Xpeng's bionic robot is already operational in its Guangzhou factory, with plans for mass production of an L3 humanoid robot by 2026 [8]. - Seres is also advancing in the robotics field, supported by Huawei's technology and local government initiatives, aiming for significant progress within the year [8]. Market Outlook - The combination of advancements in ID technology, new vehicle launches, and robotics initiatives is expected to drive sales and performance growth for both Seres and Xpeng in 2025 [8].