Group 1 - Key Point 1: Focus on key financial events and economic data on July 10, including Germany's June CPI final value at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 will be reported at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: Federal Reserve's Musalem will speak on economic and monetary policy at 21:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending July 4 will be released at 22:30 [1] - Key Point 2: Federal Reserve Governor Waller will participate in a panel discussion at 01:15 the next day [1] - Key Point 3: Federal Reserve's Daly will discuss the U.S. economic outlook at 02:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong demand for the $39 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury bond auction, which alleviated market concerns regarding the U.S. fiscal outlook, leading to the first increase in the U.S. Treasury market in five trading days [1] - The auction's awarded yield was 4.362%, slightly lower than the secondary market trading level before the auction deadline, indicating demand exceeded expectations [1] - An additional $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond auction is scheduled for Thursday, suggesting ongoing interest in U.S. government debt [1]

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain stable despite fluctuations in the stock market and short-term Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The U.S. dollar index has continued to decline, aligning with a significant downward adjustment in the growth outlook for the U.S. relative to other major economies [1] - Foreign investors have increased currency hedging flows towards U.S. assets due to the depreciation of the dollar [1] - The sensitivity of the dollar exchange rate to domestic economic surprises has not fundamentally changed [1]

智利外交部长：我们尚不清楚美国对铜征收关税的具体范围，因为这尚未在行政命令中体现。 ...

美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率变化不大；10年期国债收益率现跌6.5个基点，报4.352%。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that a majority of participants believe that tariffs pose a persistent risk to inflation [1] - Most participants expect that the future economic growth in the United States will slow down [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - Majority of Federal Reserve participants anticipate a slowdown in future economic growth in the United States [1] Inflation Concerns - Tariffs are viewed as a continuous factor influencing inflation risks [1]

特朗普：关税公式是基于常识，旨在保护美国的利益。 ...

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 10, 2025, including U.S. Treasury auction results and Federal Reserve announcements [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. will auction 10-year Treasury bonds with results expected to include the bid-to-cover ratio and the awarded yield [1] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 will be reported, providing insights into the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting, which may influence market expectations [1] Group 2: International Economic Data - Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will be finalized, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve officials, including Musalem and Waller, will provide commentary on economic conditions and monetary policy outlook, which could impact investor sentiment [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar, influenced by Trump's tariffs and rising national debt, is prompting global investors to reconsider their reliance on the dollar [1][3][5]. Group 1: Dollar Decline and Economic Impact - The dollar index fell by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst start since the end of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system [1]. - The US economy is facing significant issues, including a 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP and a consumer confidence index drop to 93, alongside a national debt exceeding $37 trillion [3]. - The trend of de-dollarization is evident, with BRICS countries increasing their local currency settlements by 47%, and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 58%, the lowest since 1995 [3]. Group 2: Trump's Influence on Dollar Value - Trump's imposition of widespread tariffs during his second term has contributed to the dollar's decline, creating market uncertainty [3][6]. - The weakening dollar is seen as beneficial for US exports, potentially reducing the trade deficit, as it makes American goods cheaper on the international market [6][10]. - Despite the short-term benefits of a weaker dollar, there are concerns that it may undermine the dollar's credibility and accelerate the trend of de-dollarization [6][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current dollar crisis mirrors the events of 1973, when the dollar depreciated due to the end of the gold standard and the oil crisis, leading to global inflation and a significant stock market decline [4]. - The weakening dollar has led to a stronger euro and yen, with capital flowing back to European and Japanese markets, while emerging markets like India attract foreign investment [4].

Group 1 - The performance of major markets has diverged significantly in the first half of the year, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04%, DAX index rose 20.09%, Hang Seng index increased by 20.00%, and IBOVESPA index grew by 15.59% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a nearly 14% increase in the first half of the year, marking the best performance for the same period since 2017 [1] - The shift of capital from the US to Europe and Asia is evident, driven by the US government's tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty in the US market [1][3] Group 2 - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with expectations that this may become a norm due to political and policy uncertainties [2] - The rising US debt and persistent fiscal deficits are undermining market confidence and financial stability, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [2][5] - If the US does not effectively manage its debt, the long-term risk of a decline in dollar assets may increase, prompting investors to diversify into other assets [5] Group 3 - The economic growth in Europe and Asia is relatively stable, with declining interest rates attracting more capital, as investors seek value in previously underperforming markets [4] - The capital cycle that traditionally supported US assets is being challenged, leading to accelerated "de-dollarization" among global economies [4][7] - The potential for a financial crisis exists if the US continues to expand its debt, which could disrupt the global financial chain [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index has dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973, attributed to slowing economic growth and rising debt levels [6] - The demand for long-term debt is raising concerns about a "gray rhino" risk, which could lead to a debt crisis affecting global financial markets [7] - Stablecoins are seen as a potential support for US debt, but they come with regulatory and liquidity risks that need to be addressed [8] Group 5 - Hong Kong is positioned as a leading area for stablecoin development, with expectations for enhanced regulatory frameworks and international cooperation [9] - By 2025, global capital is anticipated to continue flowing into emerging markets and digital assets, reshaping the global market landscape [10] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts may influence market stability, with potential implications for both US and Asia-Pacific markets [11] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, with expectations for continued growth [12] - A-share markets are expected to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and innovation [12]