Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1885.3 with a change of -0.15, a trading volume of 1178, an open interest change of -285, and a percentage change of 51.8 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 1740.2 with a change of 196.9, a trading volume of 50789, an open interest change of -1263, and a percentage change of -1.79 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1292.8 with a change of -0.90, a trading volume of 644.3, an open interest change of 31546, and a percentage change of -75 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1435.7 with a change of -1.50, a trading volume of 3222, an open interest change of 300, and a percentage change of 501.4 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1275.7 with a change of -2.36, a trading volume of 661.4, and an open interest change of 3916 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 2276 with a change of 449, a trading volume of 1132.0, an open interest change of 2550, and a percentage change of -1.65 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was 145.1, with previous spreads of 29.0 and 275.8, and a weekly opening of 116.1 [2] - The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was -20.0, with previous spreads of -168.7 and 447.4, and a weekly opening of 467.4 [2] - The spread between EC2506 - 2510 was 592.5, with previous spreads of 583.5 and 513.0 [2] - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was -142.9, with previous spreads of -152.9 and 10.0 [2] - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 160.0, with previous spreads of 150.9 and 158.0 [2] Group 3: Shipping Index Information - SCEIS was 1937.14 with a previous value of 1697.63, a percentage change of 14.11%, and was updated on 2025/6/23 [2] - SCFI was 1835 $/TEU with a previous value of 1844, a percentage change of -10.62%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - CCFI was 1578.6 with previous values of 1488.87 and 1397.02, percentage changes of 6.03% and 6.57%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - NCFI was 1299.58 with a previous value of 1307.92, a percentage change of -0.64%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - TCI was 937.12 with a previous value of 962.14, a percentage change of -1.40%, and was updated on 2025/6/25 [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025, the average weekly capacity was 29.3 and 30.4 million TEU respectively. The OA Alliance's FAL7 route added a new service in week 28. The supply pressure was neutral in the first week of July, low in the third week, and high in the second and fourth weeks [2] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - For July, MSK initially opened at 3400 USD, then dropped to 3100 USD. Other carriers were mostly between 3500 - 4000 USD and then around 3500 USD. The average in the first week was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [3] - In the second week, MSK opened at 2900 USD, and the average among carriers was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures. On 6/25, HPL lowered its rate from 3400 to 3200 USD [3] Group 6: News - On 6/26, the US Defense Intelligence Agency stated that its assessment of the Iranian nuclear facilities being attacked by the US military was preliminary and of low credibility. It was collaborating with other agencies to investigate the leak of the assessment [3] - On 6/26, Trump said that the US would talk with Iran next week. He believed the war between Iran and Israel was over, but would not lift sanctions on Iran. He also thought the conflict might break out again [3] - The UK Central Intelligence Agency claimed that several key Iranian nuclear facilities had been destroyed [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Contracts continue to decline, in line with the daily report's expectations. Given the high difficulty of trading recently, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the trading difficulty is high, and the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise without more positive news. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period. [2] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period. [2] - On June 25, the main contract 2508 closed at 1740.2, down 3.07%, with a trading volume of 50,800 lots and an open interest of 43,500 lots, a decrease of 1263 lots from the previous day. [3] Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in May was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5). [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. [2] - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6). [2] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. It has been suggested to short lightly when the 2508 contract rebounds above 2000. Hold existing short positions and stop - loss long positions, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. [4] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when contracts rally and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction. [4] - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2506 - 2604 are adjusted to 16%. [4] - Margin: The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. [4] - Daily opening limit: The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots. [4] Geopolitical News - Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Chairman Mohammad Eslami said on the 24th that the Iranian government has taken necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the Iranian nuclear program after military strikes by Israel and the US. [5] - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced on the 24th that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel has ended, and he called on all agencies to focus on reconstruction. [5]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2506 | 1,889.3 | 1,881.1 | 1,885.3 ...

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1883.0 with a -0.42% change, a base of 54.1, a trading volume of 635, an open interest of 3361, and an open interest change of -172 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 1875.0 with a -0.79% change, a base of 62.1, a trading volume of 70521, an open interest of 47053, and an open interest change of 1085 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1370.0 with a 0.74% change, a base of 567.1, a trading volume of 15474, an open interest of 31514, and an open interest change of 17/29 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1530.1 with a -0.64% change, a base of 407.0, a trading volume of 2667, an open interest of 6656, and an open interest change of 460 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1372.1 with a -0.64% change, a base of 565.0, and an open interest of 2939 with an open interest change of -39 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1209.8 with a 0.72% change, a base of 727.3, a trading volume of 797, an open interest of 4156, and an open interest change of 169 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread - The EC2506 - 2508 spread was 8.0, compared to 1.0 the previous day, with a daily change of -130.7 and a weekly change of 144.2 [2] - The EC2508 - 2510 spread was 505.0, compared to 530.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 616.1 and a weekly change of -116.9 [2] - The EC2506 - 2510 spread was 513.0, compared to 531.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 485.4 and a weekly change of 27.3 [2] - The EC2510 - 2512 spread was -160.1, compared to -180.0 the previous day, with a daily change of -184.4 and a weekly change of 34.8 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 158.0, compared to 159.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 152.5 and a weekly change of -21.5 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Indicators - The SCHIS spot index on 2025/6/23 was 1937.14, up 14.11% from the previous period and 4.61% from two periods ago [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/20 was $1835/TEU, down -0.49% from the previous period and up 10.62% from two periods ago [2] - The CCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/20 was 1578.6 points, up 6.03% from the previous period and 6.57% from two periods ago [2] - The NCFI on 2025/6/20 was 1299.58 points, down -0.64% from the previous period and up 16.40% from two periods ago [2] - The TCI on 2025/6/20 was 930.54 points, with no change from the previous period and up 6.97% from two periods ago [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 was 293,000 and 304,000 TEU respectively [2] - The OA Alliance's FAL7 route week28 added a blank sailing this week [2] - Supply pressure in the first week of July was neutral, low in the third week, and high in the second and fourth weeks [2] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotations - Shipping companies announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000 [3] - Some shipping companies later lowered prices. MSK dropped to $3100, others were around $3500, with an average of $3400, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [3] Group 6: News - On June 24, Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full cease - fire. Iran would start first, and Israel would follow after 12 hours [4] - White House senior officials said Israel agreed to the cease - fire on the condition that Iran would not launch further attacks, and Iran signaled it would not attack [4] - An advisor to the Iranian Parliament Speaker called Trump's cease - fire statement a provocation [4]

集运指数（欧线）观点： 10空单持有；逢高酌情加仓 国泰君安期货研究所 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 核心观点：10空单持有；逢高酌情加仓 | | 过去一周，集运指数偏弱震荡，主力2508合约周一至周四处在2000~2200点盘整。周五2508增仓下跌，最终收盘于1890点。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧线即期运费 | 欧线基本面 | 美线及宏观事件 | 盘面交易逻辑及策略建议 | | 7月第一周马士基、PA、MSC推涨幅度均值400美元 | 7月已无待定航次，周均运力30.6万TEU/周，环 | | | | /FEU。 | 比6月上涨3.4%（或1万TUE/周）。具体而言，7月上 | 6月下旬美西主流船司报价暂稳在 | | | | 旬（wk27、wk28）平均30.1万TEU/周，7月下旬 | 2500~30 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data on EC futures contracts, shipping indices, and market news. It shows the price trends of different EC futures contracts, the changes in shipping indices, and the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on the shipping industry. The report also mentions the current situation of downstream cargo space bookings and the price increase announcements of shipping companies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices**: EC2506 closed at 1898.0 with a -0.20% change, EC2508 at 2092.0 with a 2.65% change, EC2510 at 1427.9 with a 0.83% change, EC2512 at 1595.6 with a -0.96% change, EC2602 at 1430.2 with a -0.09% change, and EC2604 at 1243.8 with a 0.27% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, with EC2508 having the highest trading volume of 75737 and an open interest of 42767, showing a decrease of 1784 in open interest [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads between different contracts show fluctuations. For example, the spread between EC2506 - 2508 was -194.0, and it has changed compared to previous periods [2]. 3.2 Shipping Indices - **SCFIS**: Updated on 2025/6/9, it was 162281, showing a 29.53% increase from the previous period, with an expected 0.46% change in the next period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/13, it was 1844, a 10.62% increase from the previous period, with an expected 5.04% change in the next period [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/13, it was 1488.87, a 6.57% increase from the previous period, with an expected 1.56% change in the next period [2]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/13, it was 1307.92, a 16.40% increase from the previous period, with an expected 5.25% change in the next period [2]. - **TCI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/17, it was 869.91, showing no change from the previous period, with an expected 2.08% change in the next period [2]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity and Booking Situation - **Shipping Capacity**: In June and July 2025, the average weekly shipping capacity is 29.7 and 29.3 million TEU respectively. The capacity is neutral from the second half of June to the first half of July and is relatively high in the second half of July [2]. - **Booking Situation**: Downstream customers are currently booking cargo space for the second half of June (week 24 - 25). The lowest price for this period is 2700 - 2800 US dollars from MSK, and the average price is about 2950 US dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. Shipping companies have announced price increases for July, with an average price of about 3800 US dollars, equivalent to about 2700 points on the futures market [2]. 3.4 Market News - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: On June 18, Iran launched supersonic missiles at Israel. The conflict has led to a decrease in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping industry is concerned, and some shipping companies are avoiding passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is expected that the shipping cost through the Strait of Hormuz will increase [2].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 当日行情： 现货方面，航司对 6 月线上报价较为平稳，显示 6 月涨价落地成色尚可,目前 大柜报集中在 2760~3300 美元区间，马士基欧基港 7 月初报价上涨至 3400 美元， HPL 大柜开舱价在 4345 美元左右，本周达飞进一步提涨 300 美元至 4645 美元， 较月末调涨 1045 美元~1710 美元，调涨幅度较大，观察其落地成色及其他航司会 否跟涨。考虑目前欧洲出口需求韧性较强，运力供给保持平稳，且报价和箱量都 有所企稳，旺季涨价短期难被证伪，涨价或有望得到基本面支撑逐步落地，若 6 月价格企稳，则远月旺季 08 合约中枢也应将上移、目前位置或存低估，而 10 月 作为传统淡季关注高空机会。 二、行业要闻 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021 ...

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/17 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | 作目寄合量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1934.3 | -0.19 | -681.5 | 1661 | | 5204 | -238 | | | EC2508 | | 2030.0 | -1.84 | -777.2 | 65871 | | 43658 | -1186 | | | EC2510 | | 1414.7 | -214 | -161.9 | 17666 | | 29238 | 328 | | | EC2512 | | 1611.2 | -1.39 | -358.4 | 2908 | | 6332 | -(54 | | | EC2602 | | 1453.6 | -1.30 | -200.8 | 754 | | 3131 | 84 | | | EC2604 | | 1273.7 | -1.12 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The EC2506 contract's final delivery settlement price may be close to 1900 points due to shipping schedule delays and container rejections in June. The EC2508 contract is characterized by strong current conditions but weak expectations. It is recommended to approach it with a volatile mindset (1900 - 2300 points). The strategy is to hold short positions for the 10 contract [12][14]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2506 closed at 1,934.3 with a -1.06% daily change, EC2508 at 2,030.0 (-4.04%), and EC2510 at 1,414.7 (-3.22%). The trading volume and open interest also varied, with EC2508 having the highest trading volume of 65,871 and EC2506 having the highest open interest of 5,204 [1]. - **Freight Index**: On June 16, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 1,697.63 points (weekly increase of 4.6%), and the US - West route was 2,908.68 points (weekly increase of 33.1%). The SCFI European route was $1,844/TEU (bi - weekly increase of 10.6%), and the US - West route was $4,120/FEU (bi - weekly decrease of 26.5%) [1]. - **Spot Freight**: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Antwerp routes varied, with prices ranging from $1,700 - $3,610 for 40'GP and $1,717 - $2,555 for 20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.15, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly Shipping Capacity**: There are two scenarios for China - Europe base weekly shipping capacity, with or without considering pending voyages. The data shows fluctuations in shipping capacity contributed by different alliances and carriers over different time periods [5][11]. - **Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity**: Similar to the weekly data, there are two scenarios for monthly average weekly shipping capacity. The shipping capacity shows differences between 2024 and 2025 and varies by month [8][10]. - **June - August Shipping Schedule**: The shipping schedules of various alliances and carriers from June to August 2025 are provided, excluding pending voyages [6]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel, and Trump's actions regarding trade agreements and the call for evacuation from Tehran are reported, which may have an impact on market sentiment [12][15]. - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index was weakly volatile. The main 2508 contract closed at 2030 points (down 4%), and the secondary main 2510 contract closed at 1414.7 points (down 3%). The previous week's speculation on the impact of Middle - East geopolitical tensions on the European route had limited actual effects [12]. - **SCFIS Index Forecast**: The SCFIS index on June 16 was lower than expected. It is expected to be around 1980 points on June 23 and may rebound to 2000 - 2050 points on June 30. The 2506 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be close to 1900 points [12]. - **Shipping Company's Price Announcement**: CMA CGM announced price increases for early July, with a proposed price of $2250/TEU and $4100/FEU [12]. - **Market Fundamentals**: Since mid - June, with the increase in FAK prices, long - term contracts or index - linked contracts have become more attractive. Some shipowners are offering special prices at the end of June to build up the rejection rate. The weekly average shipping capacity in July is 30.6 million TEU (excluding CMA CGM's pending voyages in week 30). In August, if pending voyages are not considered, the weekly average shipping capacity is 29.8 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31.3 million TEU [13]. - **US Route Freight**: US - West freight rates will continue to decline in late June, with a further increase in the decline rate. It is expected that the mainstream shipping companies' US - West quotes will fall below $3000/FEU. The US - East freight rate decline is relatively small, and it may fall to around $5500/FEU in the short term. Although there is an obvious increase in FOB bookings in the first and second weeks of July in the US - East, the pressure to stop the decline in freight rates is still high [13]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

运力安排:2025年6月、7月周均运力分别在29.7、29.3万TEU。6月下半月-7月上，运力中性,7月下半月运力偏多。 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/16 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1937.9 | -0.21 | -685.1 | 632 | | 5442 | -916 | | | EC2508 | | 2068.0 | 4.20 | -815.2 | 127644 | | 44844 | -168 | | | EC2510 | | 1445.6 | 4.72 | -192.8 | 40857 | | 28910 | 1749 | | | EC2512 | | 1633.9 | 2.02 | -381.1 | 9787 | | 6396 | 281 | | | EC2602 | | 1472.8 | 2.07 | -2 ...