分析；日内将可关注美国第一季度经常帐(亿美元)、美国4月FHFA房价指数月率、美国4月S&P/CS20座 大城市未季调房价指数年率、美国6月谘商会消费者信心指数等众多数据，整体预期偏向利好金价，将 会对金价产生反弹提振。 同时还需关注，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话；英国央行行长贝利出席上议院经济事务委员会会议；以 及包括美联储主席鲍威尔和众多美联储官员的讲话情况。关注对金价造成的影响波动。 黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回撤之力，以及特朗普表示以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火而先行表现走低，一度 再探昨日低点附近及其下方，但美元指数昨日收跌，以及今日开盘继续走低，则限制了金价跌幅。使其 金价在回落调整的同时，仍具有反弹需求。 其美元指数，日图走势仍未能稳健运行在中轨上方，并再度走低在短期均线之下，空头力量加大，布林 带又再度偏向开口向下的预期，暗示后市将继续走低回落，而会对金价产生支撑，周图走势也未能反弹 至5-10周均线上方，并再度走低，也加强了后市看空压力，月图也依然处于回落压力之中； 故此，前景上，将维持看空不变，继续等待触及年初就已经给出的目标位200月均线附近，而会对金价 产生较大利好，所以，金价短期震荡调整，方向上 ...

美元指数跌超0.1%，美元兑日元跌0.2%报145.88日元。 ...

彭博美元指数跌0.24%，报1208.12点，日内交投区间为1218.30-1207.87点。 周一（6月23日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.30%，刷新日低至98.371点，日内从亚太盘初至北京时间 16:00持稳于99点关口一线，随后涨幅扩大，在17:32刷新日高至99.421点，之后至美股开盘处于高位震 荡状态，随后持续下挫。 ...

美元指数缩减跌幅，最新下跌0.17%，报98.75 ...

美元兑日元涨幅收窄至0.4%，在美联储理事鲍曼谈及7月降息可能性之际，回落至146.63日元。 美元指数日内整体转跌，刷新日低至98.76。 ...

美元指数DXY短线下挫20点，报98.92。 ...

美元指数短线走高，日内涨超0.6%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the U.S. Treasury market and its impact on global asset classes, particularly in the context of changing perceptions regarding the U.S. dollar and its role in the global economy [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift from U.S. Exception to De-dollarization**: There has been a significant shift in market expectations from the U.S. exception narrative to a de-dollarization outlook, which has altered the correlation between stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. This has diminished the traditional safe-haven function of U.S. Treasuries [1][2]. - **Decline in Correlation**: The correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar has decreased, leading to a rebound in both U.S. Treasuries and equities, while the U.S. dollar index has declined [2]. - **10-Year Treasury Term Premium**: The 10-year term premium for U.S. Treasuries has reached its highest point in nearly a decade, approximately 0.8%. The Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts will significantly influence Treasury yields and market demand [3]. - **Dollar Index Depreciation**: The U.S. dollar index has depreciated by about 7% this year, primarily due to the shift in market expectations and changes in global capital flows [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Global Capital Flows**: There has been a notable outflow of capital from the U.S. Treasury market, with funds returning to the Eurozone bond market, which has kept the 10-year Eurozone bond yields relatively stable (between 3.1% and 3.3%) despite volatility in other sovereign rates [6]. - **Foreign Investment in Sovereign Securities**: The rising interest of foreign investors in Eurozone, German, and Japanese sovereign securities indicates a shift in global capital allocation, which could have varying impacts on the yields of these securities [6].

Report Overview - Report Date: June 20, 2025 - Report Title: [Guantong Research] Multiple Factors Intertwined, the Disk Tests the Resistance Level - Analyst: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, supply shortages, and weakening demand [1]. Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in the afternoon. Trump will decide whether to attack Iran in two weeks, and although the conflict has eased, oil prices have risen, increasing inflation expectations. Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates for two consecutive days, and the market still expects two rate cuts this year. The Fed's rate cuts will affect the US dollar index and guide the price trend of the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased significantly this week, and copper imports have also declined. The cost of smelters has increased, intensifying the market's tight supply expectations. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate has slowed down, the enthusiasm for purchasing has decreased, and the trading volume has weakened. The terminal wire and cable industry remains resilient, but the production schedule of the home appliance industry has shrunk, and the real estate industry has also dragged down the market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved higher, closing slightly lower at 77,990. The number of long positions of the top 20 futures companies decreased by 3,684 to 119,268 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 3,770 to 106,544 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and in South China is 90 yuan/ton. On June 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,609 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 103 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.91 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.40 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 33,900 tons, a decrease of 10,934 tons from the previous period. As of June 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 60,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, a slight decrease of 4,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].