美债如何牵引全球大类资产？20250622 摘要 美国例外论预期转变为去美元化预期，导致股债及大类资产相关性发生 变化，传统避险功能减弱。美债利率与美元相关性下降，美债、美股反 弹，美元指数下行。 美国 10 年期期限溢价已达近十年高点。美联储降息节奏及幅度将直接 影响美债利率走势和市场对美债的需求，进而影响交易机会。预计美联 储最早四季度重启降息。 今年以来美元指数贬值约 7%，主要原因是市场预期转向去美元化以及 全球资金流动变化。部分国家因债务风险和关税政策等因素减少持有美 债。 欧元区公债市场资金回流对美元形成贬值压力。今年 3 月至 5 月，欧元 区公债市场资金回流明显，与 2024 年初净流出形成对比。 全球资金流动显著影响各国主权债务利率。资金从美债市场流出，回流 至欧元区公债市场，使得欧元区 10 年期公债利率保持相对平稳。 外汇套保后的欧元区、德国及日本主权利率显示出外资持有这些国家主 权证券积极性的提升，表明全球资本配置正在发生变化。 Q&A 全球资金流动显著影响各国主权债务利率。今年 3 月至 5 月期间，我们观察到 资金从美债市场向其他方向流动，例如回流至欧元区公债市场。这一趋势使得 欧 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the shift of Chinese capital from U.S. Treasury bonds to non-U.S. asset classes such as gold, cryptocurrencies, European bonds, and offshore markets like Hong Kong stocks [3][10][12] - It highlights the long-standing trade surplus of China, which reached nearly $99 billion in a single month and over 7 trillion RMB for the entire year, indicating strong manufacturing competitiveness but weak domestic consumption [7][9] - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms in China to enhance consumer spending, which is currently hindered by high savings rates and low consumption tendencies [4][8] Group 2 - The investment growth in China post-pandemic is primarily supported by high-end manufacturing, with fixed asset investment (FAI) growth accelerating since 2020 [5][7] - The article notes that the U.S. is experiencing rising inflation pressures due to increased costs from imports, which are not being passed on to consumers directly, complicating the effectiveness of tariff policies [10][11] - It points out that the ongoing accumulation of foreign assets by China, estimated at $2-3 trillion, is a response to its trade surplus and is likely to continue despite U.S. trade tensions [9][18] Group 3 - The article predicts that non-U.S. assets will outperform U.S. assets this year, particularly highlighting the potential for Hong Kong stocks to reach new highs, especially in the third quarter [4][20] - It discusses the impact of U.S. fiscal policies, including tax cuts and increased deficits, which may further exacerbate trade imbalances and keep China's trade surplus elevated [11][16] - The article concludes that the strengthening of offshore markets, particularly Hong Kong, is expected as global capital flows increasingly favor these regions due to the weakening dollar [12][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of China's consumption and investment landscape within the global economic framework, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance consumer spending while managing trade surpluses and capital flows [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Structure - China's fixed asset investment (FAI) growth has accelerated since 2020, primarily supported by high-end manufacturing, despite a significant decline in real estate investment [4][5]. - The high investment and savings rates in China have led to substantial production capacity, which is largely absorbed through exports, resulting in record trade surpluses [6][10]. - The trade surplus reached nearly $99 billion in a single month, with annual figures exceeding 7 trillion yuan, indicating strong manufacturing competitiveness but weak domestic consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Policy Measures - Recent policy measures, such as consumption vouchers, have temporarily boosted consumer spending, but their long-term effectiveness remains questionable [7]. - Consumer confidence indices show that income confidence has remained around long-term averages, but the "scar effect" from the pandemic has significantly dampened consumer sentiment [8][9]. - Household savings continue to grow, with M2 growth rebounding, yet the fundamental savings behavior of consumers has not changed [8][9]. Group 3: Global Economic Relations and Capital Flows - China's strong investment and weak consumption are likely to maintain high trade surpluses, leading to continued accumulation of foreign assets estimated at $2-3 trillion [10][12]. - The U.S. has responded to China's trade surplus with tariffs, which have not effectively reduced import costs and may have exacerbated inflationary pressures domestically [12][14]. - There is a shift in capital flows, with funds increasingly moving towards non-U.S. assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, European bonds, and offshore markets like Hong Kong [12][14]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The article highlights the potential for Hong Kong stocks to benefit from these capital flows, with significant IPO activity indicating renewed investor interest [14][15]. - The outlook for Hong Kong as a major financing center is positive, supported by the ongoing global economic interconnections and China's relative advantages [16].