Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the RMB exchange rate indices indicates a potential stabilization of the RMB against the USD, following a period of depreciation pressure, with expectations for continued stability in the exchange rate [1][5][6]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 96.29, up 0.15% week-on-week - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reached 102.25, increasing by 0.11% week-on-week - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported 90.47, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [1][2]. USD Index and Market Dynamics - The USD index rebounded after four consecutive weeks of decline, closing at 99.58, a 0.36% increase for the week - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.2889, up 148 points for the week, while the onshore RMB closed at 7.2862, gaining 177 points [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the depreciation pressure on the RMB has significantly eased, with expectations for the exchange rate to remain stable due to improved supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [5][6]. - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and GDP figures, may influence the RMB exchange rate positively if they continue to show a cooling trend [8]. Global Economic Context - The IMF has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic performance and potential impacts on the global financial system [9][10]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent reports highlight rising global trade risks and uncertainties in U.S. debt sustainability, which could affect the overall financial landscape [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have dropped nearly 2% due to a stronger US dollar and easing US-China trade tensions, which reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Gold's cumulative decline for the week exceeded 1%, with the US dollar index rising by 0.3%, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers and suppressing demand [1] - The easing of global uncertainties has led to a shift in investor preference towards risk assets, increasing downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - After a pullback from around $3500, gold is currently facing resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $3368 - $3370) [3] - The price has rebounded from a low of $3265, with key support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (around $3300) [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions around $3345 - $3365 resistance and monitoring support at $3280 - $3260 [4] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market shows key turning signals, with prices stabilizing above the MA55 moving average (32.502) and a bullish arrangement of MA14 and MA20 [6] - The MACD indicates a weakening downward momentum, while the RSI remains at 54.144, suggesting a bullish outlook [6] - Short-term trading strategy recommends short positions around $33.35 - $33.45 with a stop loss at $33.55 and targets set at $33.16 - $32.75 - $32.45 [6]

Exchange Rate Trends - The CNY has recently appreciated against the USD, with the USD index closing at 99.84 on April 23, up 0.61% from the previous week, while the CNY closed at 7.293, up 0.12%[12] - Since Q2 2022, the USD has shown stronger performance compared to other currencies due to expansionary fiscal and industrial policies in the US, exerting depreciation pressure on the CNY[3] US Policy Impact - Trump's recent softening stance on tariffs has alleviated some market concerns, contributing to a slight recovery in the USD index[4] - The USD index has experienced two significant depreciations since March, contrary to actual interest rate trends, indicating heightened global economic risks due to US tariff policies[4] Future Outlook - The CNY's recent recovery may indicate a potential stabilization against the USD, but uncertainties remain due to ongoing US tariff strategies and potential fiscal expansions[5] - The Chinese government has prepared balanced policies to stabilize foreign trade, domestic demand, and exchange rates amid external shocks[5] Monetary Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the CNY at a reasonable equilibrium level, with a focus on avoiding excessive depreciation pressures[25] - The MLF net injection in April is projected to reach 500 billion, the highest monthly figure since 2024, indicating a shift in liquidity management strategies[25] Risks - There is a risk that the monetary policy easing may not meet expectations, which could impact the stability of the CNY[6]

美国经济前景堪忧，美元指数弱势运行，黄金转折点在哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

美元指数DXY日内跌幅达0.50%，现报99.40。 ...

此外，随着美国总统特朗普和财政部长贝森特先后在贸易谈判方面释放乐观信号，美元指数延续反弹 ，美债收益率涨跌不一，避险情绪回落和美元走高导致现货黄金暴跌逾100美元。 从技术上看，昨日金价向上测试周内第一阻力3392美元／盎司附近后受阻回落，至本周多空分水岭3293 美元／盎司附近展开争夺，最后重新回到分水岭上方，暂时缓解了下行的压力。但要注意到的是，虽然 金价连续两个交易日回调，但从空间上看还不是特别充分。日内走势来看，上行方面，金价上方阻力继 续关注3392美元／盎司附近，若金价有效突破该位置，阻力调整至3457美元／盎司附近。下行方面，本 周多空分水岭3293美元／盎司成为当前金价下方的第一支撑。若金价有效跌破该位置，支撑则调整至 3228美元／盎司。 新华财经北京4月24日电近两个交易日，随着特朗普"改口"推动风险资产情绪回暖，国际金价在获利了 结打压下自历史高点大幅回落。需要注意到的是，尽管金价近两日回调幅度较为明显，但从空间上看， 调整还不是特别充分。不过，阶段金价波动剧烈，短时操作难度较大。 基本面方面，美联储发布的经济状况褐皮书显示，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，但国际贸 易政策的不确定 ...

来源：人大CMF 王晋斌 中国人民大学经济学院原常务副书记、国家发展与战略研究院研究员、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）主要成员 本文字数：1851字 阅读时间：5分钟 在当前各种冲突叠加，外部环境复杂多变的背景下，对美元金融汇率稳定的好处是：有助于稳定跨境资本流动，并进一步稳定人民币汇率预期。对一篮子 货币贸易汇率较大幅度贬值的好处是：有利于出口。 美元指数大幅度下行，在相当程度上已经脱离了传统的利率平价关系。换言之，在利率平价关系等式一侧添加了风险溢价因子，风险溢价主要是对美国激 进关税政策等的补偿。与年初相比，十年期美国国债收益率从年初的4.57%下行至4月22日的4.41%，仅下行16个BP，而欧元区、日本以及英国十年期国债 上行基本在20个BP以下，美元指数竟然下行了近9%，美元出现了美国激进政策叙事导致的阶段性贬值"超调"迹象。 与去年底和今年初相比，十年期中国国债收益率在4月22日基本还处在1.65%左右。中美十年期国债收益率之差变化不大，如果纯粹从利差来看，人民币 汇率不发生较大变化也属于正常。从今年以来人民币汇率中间价和收盘价之差来看，人民币略有贬值压力，主要还是受到了关税摩擦等因素带来的预期影 ...

金十数据4月24日讯，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.94%，在汇市尾市收于99.844。截 至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1322美元，低于前一交易日的1.1426美元；1英镑兑换1.3265美元，低于 前一交易日的1.3336美元。1美元兑换143.45日元，高于前一交易日的141.50日元；1美元兑换0.8297瑞士 法郎，高于前一交易日的0.8189瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3887加元，高于前一交易日的1.3815加元；1美 元兑换9.7032瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.5556瑞典克朗。 美元指数23日上涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that fuel oil futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract reaching 3035.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.57% increase [1] Group 2 - As of April 22, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures at 11,250 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; fuel oil futures warehouse receipts stood at 46,170 tons, also unchanged [2] - The Chinese government has allowed the blending of high and low sulfur fuel oil using bonded logistics methods [2] - With a decrease in drone attacks, Russia's crude oil processing has increased, leading to a rise in fuel oil exports to Asia in April, while India has issued tenders for fuel oil sales, indicating a sufficient supply side [2] Group 3 - According to Ruida Futures, the market sentiment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance, with concerns over new tariff policies easing and the dollar index recovering; however, international oil prices have rebounded due to increased sanctions on Iran [3] - The downstream sector is experiencing a risk-averse mentality, putting pressure on refinery shipments, resulting in a bearish trading atmosphere in the fuel oil market [3] - Technical analysis suggests that the main contract for FU should focus on resistance around 3050 and support near 2900, indicating a short-term oscillating strong trend; for LU, resistance is around 3550 and support near 3380, also showing a short-term strong oscillating trend [3] Group 4 - South China Futures notes that in April, reduced exports from Russia and Iran have kept supply tight; however, there is a slight recovery in import demand from China and India, while the U.S. has seen a decline [3] - The overall import demand is weakening on a month-on-month basis, and due to tax deduction issues for high-sulfur fuel oil imports in China, a reduction in imports is expected to be a major trend [3] - High inventory levels in Singapore and Malaysia are easing the tight supply situation in the Singapore market, although short-term delivery products remain limited, keeping the short-term crack spread firm [3]

美元指数DXY盘初大幅走高，现报99.43，日内涨0.6%。 ...