Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high during intraday trading, with a price of $111,312.3, reflecting a 2.26% increase [1][2] - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.49%, Nasdaq up 0.94%, and S&P 500 up 0.61% [2][3] - Nvidia's market capitalization briefly surpassed $400 billion, closing up 1.8% [2] Cryptocurrency Prices - Ethereum (ETH) rose to $2,770.53, up 6.20% [2] - Solana (SOL) increased to $157.57, up 4.18% [2] - XRP reached $2.4131, up 4.75% [2] - Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a price of $0.18212, up 6.51% [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated significant uncertainty regarding the inflation impact of tariffs, with no consensus on the extent of their effect [4] - Some officials suggested the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, while most maintained a patient approach due to stable economic performance [4] - The Fed described the economic growth as "robust" and noted low unemployment rates [4] Trade Relations - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, leading to a 2% decline in the Brazilian real against the dollar [4] - The European Commission President stated that the EU is closely working with the Trump administration to reach a trade agreement while preparing for various scenarios [4][5] - Reports indicated that EU negotiators are nearing a trade agreement with Trump, with tariff levels higher than those granted to the UK [5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year [11] - China's economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan [11] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Trade Relations - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with three main viewpoints: cut rates this year but exclude July, maintain current rates, or act immediately in the next meeting [9] - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, stating that rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [11] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed positive performance with the Dow Jones up by 0.49%, S&P 500 up by 0.61%, and Nasdaq up by 0.94% [3] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.06%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.76% [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Spot gold closed at $3,313.73 per ounce, up by 0.37%, while spot silver fell by 1% to $36.37 per ounce [6] - WTI crude oil closed at $67.19 per barrel, up by 0.03%, and Brent crude oil closed at $69.47 per barrel, up by 0.08% [6] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a new historical high of nearly $112,000 per coin, increasing by almost 3% [5] - Ethereum surged over 5%, approaching the $2,800 mark [5]

美联储会议纪要：几位与会者表示，如果数据按预期发展，他们愿意在7月会议上考虑降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve's current interest rates, claiming they are too high and urging for a reduction to alleviate refinancing costs for the government [2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Influence on Monetary Policy - Trump asserts that the current interest rates are "at least 3 percentage points too high," leading to an additional annual cost of $360 billion for refinancing [2]. - He emphasizes that there is "no inflation" and that businesses are "pouring into America," pushing for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2]. - The proposal of appointing a "shadow chairman" before Powell's term ends raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility [3][5]. Group 2: Implications for the Next Fed Chair - The next Fed chair may face skepticism regarding their integrity and potential compromises made for nomination, especially if they are perceived as being aligned with Trump's interest rate reduction agenda [5][6]. - Trump's push for a "shadow chairman" could undermine Powell's authority and complicate the decision-making process within the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - The market's reaction to potential early nominations and the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy could lead to confusion and volatility [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Financial markets typically dislike uncertainty, particularly in sensitive areas like monetary policy, which could lead to adverse reactions if Trump's proposals are implemented [6][8]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes are expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's stance, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [8].

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利率可能进入扩张性区间。 欧洲央行管委Holzmann：没有理由进一步降息。 ...

智通财经7月9日电，欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼表示，目前没有进一步降息的理由。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to signal a potential interest rate cut in September, with Citigroup predicting a more dovish stance from the Fed [1][3] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. has remained below the 2% target for three consecutive months, providing support for dovish sentiments within the Fed [1][3] - Trump's proposed tariffs on copper (50%) and pharmaceuticals (up to 200%) are expected to disrupt supply chains and could impact inflation, complicating the Fed's decision on rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, with a total reduction of 125 basis points expected by March next year [3][4] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant drop in LME copper inventories by 80%, raising concerns about market distortions and supply chain adjustments [3][4] - Despite the tariff threats, Wall Street has raised its S&P 500 year-end target, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast from 6100 to 6600 points, indicating a 5.9% upside potential [3][4] Group 3 - The earnings resilience of S&P 500 companies is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected 4.5% year-over-year increase in Q2 earnings, largely driven by major tech companies [4][6] - The tech sector is experiencing a valuation surge, with Nvidia's market cap approaching $4 trillion, driven by strong revenue growth from its CUDA ecosystem [6] - The market is showing signs of vulnerability, with a narrow breadth of gains concentrated in a few tech stocks, raising the risk of a significant correction [6][8] Group 4 - Investment strategies are suggested to balance risks, such as diversifying into equal-weighted S&P 500 ETFs to mitigate concentration in tech stocks [8] - The potential impact of copper tariffs is seen as beneficial for companies like Freeport-McMoRan, while gold and Bitcoin are recommended as hedges against inflation volatility [8] - The upcoming dates for tariff implementation and Fed meetings are critical for adjusting investment positions in the current market environment [8]

花旗分析师表示，他们预计会议纪要将暗示"利率轨迹将取决于6月、7月和8月公布的数据"，这与美联 储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上的说法一致。鲍威尔为美联储在9月会议上可能降息奠定了基础，前提是 关税导致的物价上涨没有显示出导致持续通胀的迹象，而且经济继续创造足够的就业机会，以防止失业 率上升过快。花旗分析师表示："'观望'期可能会在夏末结束。" ...

隔夜，现货黄金下跌逾1%，盘中一度跌破3300美元关口，刷新逾一周低点至3287.06美元，收盘报3301.53美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金窄幅震荡，目前在 3303美元附近徘徊。 新高浪潮或正在酝酿！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯指数下跌0.37%，报收于44240.76点；标普500指数下跌0.07%，报收于6225.52点；纳斯达克综合指 数上涨0.03%，报20418.46点。 消息面上，特朗普发出威胁，涉及关税。 当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，根据7日发给各国的信函，以及接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关税将于 2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等关税"90天， 但维持10%的"基准关税"。 7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 在特朗普发出上述关税威胁后，当地时间8日盘中，纽约期铜一度飙升超17%，最高触及5.8955美元/磅。 ...