| 日期 | 2025/4/25 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 12.43 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 26.00/11.90 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,247.95 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 736.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 100.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 59.24 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 25.5 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 兖矿能源 沪深300 相关研究报告 《成本管控对冲煤价下跌影响，关注 煤炭主业成长—公司 2024年报点评报 告》-2025.3.31 《Q3 业绩稳健海外高增，兼具高分红 与 高 成 长 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.28 煤炭/煤炭开采 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，关注煤炭煤化工成长 2025 年 04 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 财务摘要和估值指标 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has faced pressure due to volume and price impacts, with a need to wait for demand recovery [1] - The overall performance of the coal sector has lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.76% compared to a 0.38% increase in the index [3] - The report anticipates short-term downward pressure on coal prices, with a potential rebound expected around mid-May [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal sector's year-to-date decline is 12.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.75 percentage points [25] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.18, showing a slight increase of 0.45 from the previous week [25] - Among 37 A-share stocks in the coal sector, 14 saw price increases, while 22 experienced declines [26] Supply and Demand - Average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises reached 7.24 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [3] - Total coal inventory at monitored enterprises was 33.34 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 28.4% [3] - The report notes that electricity and chemical industries have seen coal consumption changes, with electricity down by 5.2% and chemicals up by 17% year-on-year [3] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) remains stable at 678 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index increased by 0.95% to 849 CNY/ton [4] - The report highlights a downward trend in prices for both thermal and coking coal, with expectations for price recovery during peak demand seasons [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [7] - It also recommends attention to coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and Meijin Energy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [5]. Core Insights - Non-electric demand for coal remains high, with a focus on the recovery of thermal coal demand during the peak season. The average daily pig iron output from 247 blast furnaces reached 2.4442 million tons, up 1.8% week-on-week and 6.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period in the past five years [1]. - Cement clinker capacity utilization is at 58.2%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year, significantly higher than the same period last year [1]. - The Ministry of Finance has arranged for a total of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds this year, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to 2024, with 800 billion yuan allocated for greater support of "two heavy" projects, suggesting that infrastructure investment growth will remain high, supporting non-electric coal demand [1]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (5500 kcal weekly average) was 658 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.90%) week-on-week [2]. - The average price of mixed thermal coal at the pit in Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 521 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-2.07%) week-on-week [2]. - The FOB price of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia (5500 kcal weekly average) was 71 USD/ton, up 0.11% week-on-week [2]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants (approximately 50% of national washing capacity) was 63.0%, up 1.1 percentage points week-on-week but down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a low level for the same period in five years [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 91.60%, up 1.45 percentage points week-on-week and 6.07 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Inventory Levels - As of April 25, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.89 million tons, up 0.58% week-on-week and up 35.63% year-on-year, remaining at a high level for the same period [4]. - The total coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 31.099 million tons, down 2.66% week-on-week but up 32.63% year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the recent significant declines in oil and gas prices, coal prices have shown resilience. The report suggests that the further downside for port thermal coal prices is limited, considering that the current port spot prices are below long-term contract prices. It is recommended to adopt a defensive approach towards the sector, favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation, highlighting a stable economic environment as indicated by the political bureau meeting, which focuses on stability [1][3] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] - The report suggests that coal stocks are attractive for both stable dividend investment and cyclical rebound potential, with expectations of improved demand and prices following policy implementations [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is seen as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable international monetary policies [4][12] - The cyclical rebound potential is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are likely to benefit from these trends, categorized into dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal market experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.02 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.6, and the PB ratio is 1.2, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of April 25, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 655 CNY/ton, down 1.21% from the previous week [15] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81%, reflecting a slight decrease [15] - The total inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim is 31.09 million tons, down 2.66% from the previous week [15] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [16] - The average daily pig iron production from major steel mills is 2.444 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase [16] - The profitability of major steel mills has improved, supporting the demand for coking coal [16]

2025 年 04 月 27 日 政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《火电降幅收窄叠加进口减量，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.20 《贸易摩擦升级内需有望发力，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.13 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 煤炭 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/31 《美国关税超预期致市场趋于避险， 重视煤炭攻守兼备 —行业周报》- 2025.4.6 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 4 月 25 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 655 元/吨，环比下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 1.21%；CCTD 动力 煤现货价（Q5500）为 66 ...

煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2025 年 04 月 27 日 北港库存有所下降，供给收缩预计 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.4.19 -2025.4.25） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 4 月 25 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价分别收报 515、577 和 655 元/吨，环比下跌 12、12、8 元/吨，跌 幅 2.28%、2.04%和 1.21%。供给端，大秦铁路春季检修提前于 4 月 25 日结束，据中 国煤炭市场网，截至 4 月 25 日，环渤海四港区当周日均调入量 187.49 万吨，环比上周 增加 11.37 万吨、增幅 6.46%。煤价已跌至部分煤矿的成本线，预计产量将有所收缩。 进口端，印尼雨季影响生产、运输，叠加海运费较高，进口煤性价比下降；煤炭工业协 会倡议严控低卡劣质煤炭进口和使用，预计进口量将下降。需求端，据中国煤炭市场 网，截至 4 月 25 日，环渤海四港区当周日均调出量 201.24 万吨，环比上周增加 53.26 万吨，增幅 35.99%，天气带来的封航结束，港口 ...

Industry Overview - In the first quarter of this year, China's coal supply was overall ample, with a cumulative industrial raw coal output of approximately 1.2 billion tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [1][5] - The coal market has experienced a significant price decline, with the average spot price of Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping approximately 20% year-on-year to 721 RMB/ton [3][5] - The coal mining and washing industry reported a total profit of 50.7 billion RMB in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 47.3%, with operating revenue down 19.3% to 404.5 billion RMB [3][5] Company Performance - Among 22 coal companies that disclosed their performance, 19 reported a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter, with 15 companies experiencing a year-on-year decline of around 20% [1] - Yunwei Co., Ltd. (600725.SH) reported a revenue of 149 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%, and a net loss of 3.31 million RMB, a staggering drop of 8359% [1] - Panjiang Coal and Electricity (600395.SH) achieved a revenue growth of 27.33% to 2.482 billion RMB, but reported a net loss of 105 million RMB, a decline of over 590% year-on-year [2] - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) saw its revenue decrease by 21.1% to 69.585 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of approximately 18% to 11.949 billion RMB [2][3] - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) reported a net profit decline of about 20% to 3.978 billion RMB, while Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) recorded a net profit of 2.71 billion RMB, down nearly 28% year-on-year [2][3] Market Dynamics - The decline in coal sales volume and average selling prices has been identified as the primary reason for the performance downturn among major coal companies [3] - The overall weak demand for coal from downstream industries has led to a decrease in coal sales volume, railway transport turnover, and shipping volume for companies like China Shenhua [3] - The coal market is expected to remain relatively loose, with potential stabilization in demand as macroeconomic conditions improve and seasonal coal demand returns [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The coal price is believed to have reached a bottom, with expectations of a rebound in demand for replenishment in mid to late May [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of April 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 657 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 70.6 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94.2%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 88.38%, up 0.68 percentage points [10][44] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10.70 thousand tons/day (-3.5%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 4.40 thousand tons/day (+2.48%) [10][45] Inventory Situation - As of April 24, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 186.10 thousand tons, while inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 24.50 thousand tons [45] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 1.60 days, while it decreased by 0.50 days in coastal provinces [45] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal and Datong Coal [11]

电煤中长期合同在推动煤炭上下游行业健康发展，保障煤炭稳定可靠供应方面发挥重要作用。而当前， 全社会煤炭库存继续升高，特别是上中游存煤明显累积，煤炭市场总体呈现供强需弱局面，市场价格弱 势下行，供需双方签订的电煤中长期合同履约面临一定挑战。中国煤炭运销协会副理事长石瑛表 示："在煤炭市场下行时，当现货价格低于长协合同价格，可能影响合同履约。当前，大型煤炭企业的 一季度长协合同履约情况较好。例如，国家能源集团一季度的电煤中长期合同兑现率94%、河南能源兑 现率97%。当然也有合同履约困难的情况，部分企业兑现率只有60%—70%。"她建议，行业应规范数据 报送，严格奖惩措施，强化责任落实和行业自律，进一步提高长协合同履约率。 市场供需相对平衡 去年以来，煤炭价格呈现下行趋势。据中国煤炭工业协会（以下简称"中煤协"）统计，截至2024年12月 末，全国重点煤炭企业存煤6800万吨，同比增长14%；火电厂存煤约2.3亿吨，同比增长12.2%，创历史 新高；主要港口存煤7010万吨，同比增长11.1%。高库存背景下，去年煤炭价格中枢进一步下移。秦皇 岛港5500大卡下水动力煤中长期合同价格全年均价同比下跌13元/吨。环渤 ...

Core Insights - The China Coal Industry Association (CCIA) held a press conference to review the coal industry's reform and development since the 14th Five-Year Plan and to summarize the economic operation of the coal sector in 2024 [1] - The coal supply has been steadily increasing, with a shift in production focus towards the central and western regions of China, enhancing the industry's overall strength and modernized coal production system [1][2] Production and Supply - In 2024, China's coal production reached 4.78 billion tons, an increase of 880 million tons compared to 2020 [2] - The western region's raw coal output increased from 2.32 billion tons to 3.04 billion tons, accounting for an increase of 4.2% of the national total [2] - The eight major coal-producing provinces contributed 4.36 billion tons, representing 91.3% of the national output, with significant increases in regions like Xinjiang and Ordos [3] Industry Structure and Optimization - The number of coal mines in China decreased from over 4,600 to fewer than 4,300, with the average production capacity per mine increasing from 1.1 million tons/year to over 1.4 million tons/year [4] - The coal washing rate reached 68% in 2024, with significant improvements in the comprehensive utilization rates of coal gangue and mine water [4] - New coal chemical industries are rapidly developing, with a shift from coal as a single fuel to a dual role as both raw material and fuel [4] Future Outlook and Challenges - The coal industry is expected to face transformation challenges as it approaches peak consumption around 2028, transitioning from a growth phase to a stabilization phase [5] - The industry will need to adapt to fluctuations in consumption while ensuring energy supply stability, particularly as renewable energy sources develop [5] - There are ongoing issues such as the need for optimized production layout, increased transportation demands, and low levels of R&D investment that require systematic solutions [6]