Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector based on fundamental conditions [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that while there has been a slight price correction in thermal coal, the fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain unchanged. Supply is slightly contracting due to safety inspections and maintenance in coal mines, while demand from non-electric sectors like metallurgy and chemicals remains stable. However, some traders are slowing their purchasing pace due to stable prices at northern ports [11][12]. - The report notes a year-on-year decline of 2.3% in China's raw coal production for October, with a significant increase in thermal power generation by 7.3% year-on-year. The upcoming cold weather is expected to increase coal consumption at power plants, potentially leading to a rise in market coal prices [11][16]. - The report also mentions that the coking coal market is experiencing weaker prices, with a shift towards on-demand purchasing as high-priced transactions show signs of fatigue. The overall sentiment in the coking coal market is subdued, with prices expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The report indicates that the supply side is tightening, with a continued expectation of supply contraction. The demand side is also showing resilience, particularly with the anticipated increase in coal consumption due to colder weather [11][12]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining index has shown a decline of 1.54%, with major coal companies experiencing mixed performance. Notable gainers include Antai Group (+57.29%) and Dayou Energy (+22.32%), while Huayang Co. (-6.17%) and Lu'an Environmental Energy (-5.39%) faced significant declines [12][13]. 3. Important Announcements and Industry News - National coal production data for October shows a total output of 40.675 million tons, marking a 2.3% year-on-year decrease. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline [16]. - A significant acquisition was finalized between Hengyuan Coal Power and Shaanxi Black Cat, involving the transfer of 100% equity in two coal companies for a total of 440 million yuan [17]. 4. Dynamic Data Tracking - As of November 14, the average price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 832.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase. Meanwhile, the inventory levels at major ports are showing slight increases, indicating a mixed market sentiment [3][4][19]. 5. Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their market capitalizations and projected earnings. For instance, China Shenhua has a market cap of 822.8 billion yuan with a projected PE ratio of 14.0 for 2024 [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V-shaped trend. Since July, due to policies and inspections, coal production has declined, while demand has been strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal have shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation. In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern is hard to reverse, and coal prices are likely to rise [2][17]. - The decline in coal production in Shanxi has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Wuhai and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Although coking coal production is better than overall coal production, the supply is still tight [3][4][34]. - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. However, the import of coking coal from Mongolia has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, and the overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. - Steel mills' production has remained strong this year, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter, leading to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8]. - The total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized, and the thermal coal inventory has also shown a favorable trend, which supports coal prices [9]. - In the fourth quarter, coal prices are likely to remain firm. Coking coal, as a trading instrument, will continue to attract market attention. It is recommended to go long on coal at dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coal and short on ore [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Coal Price Trend Reversal, Supply - Demand Pattern Remodeled - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend. Policy changes led to a decline in coal production since July, while demand was strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [17]. 2. Stricter Coal Policies, Sharp Supply Contraction - Since the end of July, coal production has decreased month - on - month after inspections. Shanxi's production decline has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Overall, coal production has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply of coking coal is tight [3][4][34]. 3. Imports Fill Part of the Gap, Russia and Mongolia Provide Large Increases - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. Mongolia's coking coal import has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, while Russia's import has increased significantly. The overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. 4. Continuous Consumption Growth, Structural Shortage - Steel mills' production has remained strong, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter. Power plant coal consumption is high in the off - season, chemical coal consumption is at a high level, and building material coal consumption remains stable, resulting in a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8][43][50]. 5. Inventory Continues to Improve, Boosting Coal Prices Upward - Since the third quarter, the total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized. The thermal coal inventory has not increased further and is lower than last year's level. The inventory situation supports coal prices [9][65]. 6. Fourth - Quarter Market Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern of coal is hard to reverse. Coal prices are likely to remain firm. Although steel mills may cut production in the short term, the adjustment space for coking coal prices is limited. A strategy of going long on coal and short on ore can be considered [10][69].

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a rebound after a decline, with the coal ETF (515220) dropping over 2% before quickly recovering to nearly a 1% increase during trading [1] - Domestic coal production growth is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, while import volumes are down year-on-year [1] - The third quarter is expected to show a significant improvement in coal industry performance, driven by tight supply and demand dynamics, with average coal prices improving on a month-on-month basis [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen a substantial inflow of capital, with its share increasing by over 350% this year, bringing its total size to over 13.5 billion yuan [2] - The combination of strong fundamentals and capital inflows, along with the high dividend yield of the coal sector, enhances the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) [2] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the coal ETF (515220), which is the only coal ETF available in the market [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to multiple factors, including supply constraints and increased demand driven by cold winter expectations and export pressures [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity in their stock prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,954.93 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,915.57 billion yuan [2]. 2. Coal Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the port increased by 43 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 753 yuan/ton as of October 17, 2025, marking a 6.06% increase from the previous week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.52 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.13% week-on-week and a 3.93% decrease year-on-year [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to increased safety inspections and anticipated rainfall in major production areas, which may limit coal production and transportation [7][8]. - Demand is bolstered by expectations of a cold winter, leading to early stockpiling by power plants, and ongoing high demand from the steel industry [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended high-elasticity stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jinneng Holding, among others, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies' dividend policies and growth prospects, with several companies expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts [13]. 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with the report indicating that the coal price is likely to remain resilient despite seasonal trends [8]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance is expected to improve as supply-demand dynamics become more favorable [8].

Summary of Coal Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal industry, specifically focusing on the dynamics of coal prices and market conditions following the National Day holiday in China [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Price Surge - Post-National Day, coal prices unexpectedly surged due to several factors: - Increased daily coal consumption driven by prolonged high temperatures in southeastern coastal regions [3]. - Adverse weather conditions in the Yangtze River area reduced the output of wind and solar energy, increasing reliance on thermal power [3]. - Significant port closures in northern regions extended coal procurement cycles [3]. - Regional rainfall during the holiday affected coal production in key areas [3]. Optimistic Outlook for Q4 - The market holds an optimistic view for coal prices in Q4 based on: - Continuous upward adjustments in the bottom price of spot sales throughout the year [4]. - Ongoing capacity checks limiting coal output, with expected cumulative effects [4]. - Anticipated reduction in imports to around 40 million tons [4]. - Increased demand for thermal coal as heating season begins in core production areas [4]. - Enhanced safety inspections expected to further restrict production [4]. Short-term Constraints on Price Increases - Several negative factors may limit further price increases in the short term: - Completion of some procurement needs, reducing urgency for additional purchases [5]. - Expected decrease in the intensity and range of high temperatures, alleviating electricity demand [5]. - Unloading of previously stranded vessels will replenish inventories, reducing immediate purchasing pressure [5]. - October is traditionally a low consumption month for thermal coal [5]. Impact on Downstream Consumers - The rise in coal prices has significantly increased procurement costs for downstream consumers and traders: - Coal prices have risen by approximately 40 yuan, with shipping costs increasing by nearly 20 yuan, leading to a total cost increase of 60-70 yuan compared to pre-holiday levels [7]. - This cost escalation may lead to a reduction in non-essential procurement [7]. Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment has a pronounced impact on coal price fluctuations, leading to significant volatility [8]. - Short-term price peaks are anticipated, with potential for narrowing price increases or even declines [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics in Q4 - Overall supply and demand for thermal coal are expected to decrease in Q4, with supply reductions likely to be more pronounced [9]. - National coal inventory stands at 221 million tons, comparable to the previous year, indicating a reasonable inventory structure [9][10]. Weather Impact on Consumption - Uncertainty exists regarding winter temperatures, which could influence coal consumption: - A cold winter may increase demand, while a warm winter could lead to a decrease in consumption [11]. Supply Chain and Import Considerations - Supply conditions are relatively stable, with daily production showing a decline of nearly 5% year-on-year since July [12]. - Increased rainfall in Indonesia and restrictions may affect import volumes, while demand from other Asian countries could also impact domestic supply [12]. Trade Dynamics and Future Expectations - Increased enthusiasm among traders may positively influence the short-term market, but long-term inventory increases could have negative repercussions [13]. - Anticipated adjustments in pricing mechanisms and potential increases in price limits in Inner Mongolia are expected [15][16]. Regulatory Environment and Production Capacity - Safety inspections are expected to normalize production impacts, but increased pressure on overcapacity is anticipated due to upcoming regulatory changes [14]. - The total signing requirements for annual contracts are expected to decrease, with price adjustments likely to be upward only [15]. Regional Pricing Disparities - Inner Mongolia's pricing policies are set to align more closely with those of Yulin, addressing previous disparities [22]. Conclusion - The coal market is experiencing significant fluctuations driven by weather, regulatory changes, and market sentiment. The outlook for Q4 remains cautiously optimistic, but various factors could influence price stability and supply dynamics moving forward.

Core Viewpoint - In August, coal prices experienced an unexpected surge due to a temporary supply-demand imbalance, with thermal coal showing a significant upward trend for most of the month, while coking coal prices saw a decline towards the end of the month due to seasonal factors [1][3]. Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal reached 3.165 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, but the growth rate is declining. In August alone, the output was 391 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year but up 2.5% month-on-month [2]. - Terminal demand in the first eight months of 2025 was supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with electricity demand improving. Fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment up 5.1% and infrastructure investment up 2.0%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [2]. - In August, coal imports increased month-on-month, but the cumulative import volume from January to August 2025 was 300 million tons, down 12.2% year-on-year. The August import volume was 42.737 million tons, down 6.78% year-on-year but up 20.02% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - Coal prices rebounded unexpectedly in August, with coking coal showing a larger increase. Despite adjustments in the average prices of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal, Beijing-Tangshan main coking coal, and Tianjin second-grade metallurgical coke since the beginning of 2025, all three varieties saw different degrees of rebound in August [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - With the policy shift driven by anti-involution, short-term market risk appetite has increased, favoring elastic stocks. For thermal coal, the removal of long-term contract price inversion is expected to improve the production-sales ratio and inventory issues in the third quarter. Companies to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanmei International [4]. - For coking coal, the demand expectations for September and October are positive, and if there are supply disruptions, prices may rebound. Companies to focus on include Lu'an Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [4].

Market Overview - In August 2025, the domestic retail sales (社零) totaled 3.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly below market expectations of 3.82% [6][5] - For the first eight months of 2025, total retail sales reached 32.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [6] - The consumer confidence index in July 2025 was reported at 89.0, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.1 [6] Retail Sector Insights - Online retail channels continued to outperform the overall retail market, with physical stores like convenience stores and supermarkets showing stable performance [6] - In August 2025, the year-on-year growth for cosmetics was 5.1%, while gold and silver jewelry saw a significant increase of 16.8% [6] - The sports and entertainment goods sector maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9% in August [6] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel retail sales in August 2025 showed marginal improvement, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2.9% for the first eight months [7] - The sports apparel segment experienced a robust growth rate of 20.6% year-on-year for the same period [7] - Major brands like 361 Degrees reported double-digit growth, while other brands like Li Ning and Anta showed low to mid-single-digit growth [7] Coal Industry Analysis - In August 2025, coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with cumulative production of 3.165 billion tons for the first eight months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [10] - The demand for coal was supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment growing by 0.5% [10] - Coal prices experienced an unexpected rebound in August, driven by supply-demand tensions, with significant increases in both coking coal and thermal coal prices [11] Investment Recommendations - For the textile manufacturing sector, companies like Shenzhou International and Kairun Co. are recommended due to their strong performance outlook [9] - In the gold and jewelry retail sector, companies such as Laopuyin and Chaohongji are recommended, with expectations of sustained demand due to rising gold prices [9] - The coal sector suggests focusing on companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry, anticipating improvements in production and sales ratios in the upcoming quarters [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][31]. Core Insights - The coal supply has been marginally decreasing from January to August 2025, with a cumulative production of 3.165 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, but with a declining growth rate [4]. - In August 2025, coal prices experienced an unexpected surge due to supply-demand tensions, with significant increases in various coal types, particularly in thermal coal [6][7]. - The report highlights that domestic coal supply continues to contract, which has led to an increase in coal imports, with August imports rising by 20.02% month-on-month, despite a year-on-year decline of 6.78% [5][7]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with August production at 391 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year but up 2.5% month-on-month [4]. - The report notes that terminal demand has been supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment increasing by 0.5% year-on-year [5]. Price Trends - August saw a significant rebound in coal prices, with various types of coal experiencing different degrees of price increases, particularly in coking coal [6][7]. - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal rose unexpectedly, with the peak occurring later than traditional peak seasons [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the policy shift due to reduced internal competition, there is an improved market risk appetite, making certain stocks more attractive. Key stocks to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanmei International for thermal coal, and Luanan Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - Recent developments in Indonesia, including large-scale protests, may impact coal production and exports, as Indonesia accounts for 9% of global coal production and 29.8% of global coal trade [2]. - The report highlights a decrease in domestic coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's average price at 695 RMB/ton, down 1.14% week-on-week [3]. - Coal mine operating rates have declined, with power coal mines at 89.4% and coking coal mines at 84.0% [4]. - The report suggests that recent policies aimed at reducing overproduction may improve long-term coal price expectations, recommending investments in specific coal stocks [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - Indonesia's coal production for 2024 is projected at 840 million tons, with exports at 540 million tons [2]. - Domestic coal prices have seen a decline, with notable decreases in both Qinhuangdao and Shaanxi regions [3]. 2. Production and Utilization - The capacity utilization rate for power coal mines is 89.4%, down 2.72 percentage points week-on-week, while coking coal mines are at 84.0%, down 1.37 percentage points [4]. - Daily average pig iron production is reported at 2.4006 million tons, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase [4]. 3. Inventory Levels - Qinhuangdao port coal inventory has increased to 6.1 million tons, up 4.27% week-on-week, while the inventory in the Bohai Rim ports is at 23 million tons, down 1.18% [4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, highlighting the potential for significant valuation and profit increases [5].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are oscillating. Although steel inventories are decreasing and export resilience is strong, the impact of high tariffs on the US cannot be ignored, and future supply - side policies and Sino - US talks need attention [1]. - The iron ore market is weak and falling. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, but iron ore prices are still firm in the short - term. In the long - run, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the off - season demand and inventory changes [3]. - The demand side of coking coal and coke is weak, and prices are oscillating. Coking coal inventory is high and demand is weak, and the price center of coking coal and coke is expected to remain low [5][6]. - The procurement enthusiasm for thermal coal has improved, and the price in the production area is oscillating. In the short - term, price support is insufficient, and in the long - term, the supply is loose, and non - power coal consumption and restocking need attention [7]. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures trading atmosphere of rebar and hot - rolled coils is light, and the spot market transactions are average. The overall steel inventory is decreasing, and the low raw material prices make the steel mill profits acceptable. However, as the off - season approaches, building material consumption may decline, while plate demand remains resilient. The low domestic prices support export resilience, but the impact of high tariffs on the US still exists [1]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategies are provided for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weakly falling, and the spot price has a slight decline. The global iron ore shipment has increased slightly, and the arrival at 45 ports has increased by 2.9% to 2609 tons. On the previous day, the total transaction volume at major ports was 85000 tons, a 14.4% increase. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and steel mills have a production - cut expectation [3]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of selling hedging after the price rebounds [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures of coking coal and coke are oscillating. Some coking plants' production has declined due to environmental protection, and some coal mines have reduced production, providing some support. The port spot price of coking coal is weakly stable, and the terminal procurement is mainly for on - demand restocking. The import price of Mongolian coal is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to oscillate, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The pit - mouth coal price in the production area is oscillating. Environmental protection has affected some coal mines and coal - washing plants in Ordos. Chemical and other industries maintain rigid demand procurement, and the procurement demand is acceptable. The port market is weakly stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. As the rainy season arrives, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small [7]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategies are provided [7].