挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 煤炭行业周报 海外供给扰动加剧，煤价淡季不淡可期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 【投资要点】 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：王涛 证书编号：S1160525020003 证券分析师：朱彤 证书编号：S1160525030006 相对指数表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025/3 2025/8 2026/2 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究 《陕西推行煤矿安全生产责任包保制，持 续关注海外供给扰动》 2026.02.08 《电厂日耗继续回升，关注海外供给扰动》 2026.02.03 《寒潮致日耗显著回升，关注节前补库需 求》 2026.01.25 煤炭行业周报 节后双焦价格或承压，关注两会期间钢焦生产变动情况。（1）sxcoal：1 月蒙 古国煤炭产量 1017 万吨，环/同比-2.3%/+55.7%（25 年产量 9542 万吨，同比 +0.3%）。（2）截至 2 月 27 日，供给端，焦化厂开工率 72.8%，较节前/同比 +0.9/+1.7pct（节前同比-0.8pct）；需求端，Mys ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the coal mining industry in Mongolia, highlighting its rich resources and potential for growth in exports, particularly to China [19][25]. Core Insights - Mongolia has abundant coal resources, with proven reserves of 252 million tons as of the end of 2020, including 135 million tons of lignite and brown coal, and 117 million tons of anthracite and bituminous coal [7][11]. - The coal mining sector is crucial for Mongolia's economy, with coal accounting for over 90% of the country's primary energy consumption, primarily used for power generation and exports [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of coal exports to China, which accounted for 94.9% of Mongolia's coal exports in 2024, showcasing the reliance on this market for growth [22][25]. Summary by Sections Coal Resource Overview - Mongolia's coal resources are mainly distributed across five regions, with the northern and southern areas being the most productive, contributing to 99% of the total output [7][11]. - The country has approximately 300 coal mines, with a significant portion of high-quality coking coal suitable for metallurgical processes [11][19]. Production and Export Trends - Coal production in Mongolia has seen fluctuations, with a peak of 32 million tons in 2011, primarily driven by export demand [21]. - The report forecasts a cumulative coal production of 97.72 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% from 2013 to 2024 [21]. - In 2025, coal production is expected to slow down due to a decline in demand from the Chinese coking coal market [21]. Infrastructure and Trade Ports - Key coal export ports include Gashuunsukhait, Tsagaan Khad, and Mandula, with ongoing improvements in cross-border railway and logistics infrastructure to enhance export capacity [28][32]. - The report outlines various railway projects aimed at increasing coal export volumes by approximately 4 million tons annually [32]. Company Insights: Mongolian Coal - Mongolian Coal is identified as the largest high-quality coking coal producer and exporter in Mongolia, with a diversified resource portfolio including gold and copper [40][41]. - The company has strategically shifted towards resource diversification, reducing reliance on coal by expanding into gold and copper mining [46][90]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported total coal reserves of 612 million tons, with a focus on enhancing production capabilities and market presence [56][61]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown significant growth, particularly from 2015 to 2019, driven by increased demand from infrastructure projects in China [55]. - The report notes a typical cyclical fluctuation in revenue, with a notable increase in 2022 and 2023, followed by a decrease in the first half of 2025 [55][61]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The report details the cost structure of coal production, with average costs remaining stable around $77 per ton from 2018 to the first half of 2025 [71]. - Pricing strategies are influenced by market dynamics, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing in the context of international coal markets [68][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Insights - The ongoing negotiations regarding Indonesia's coal production quotas for 2026 have led some mines to suspend spot coal exports, which is expected to impact China's monthly average thermal coal consumption and imports by 0.5% and 4.2% respectively [2][3] - The export quota dispute is identified as the primary cause of the current fluctuations in Indonesia's coal supply, with the government planning to reduce the export quota from 790 million tons in 2025 to around 600 million tons in 2026 [2] - The report suggests that the impact of spot export restrictions on China's coal supply and demand is limited, as long-term contracts account for 90% of coal imports from Indonesia [3] - If the export restrictions extend to long-term contracts, the potential impact on China's monthly thermal coal consumption could reach 4.9% and imports could drop by 42% [4][8] - China's domestic coal production capacity is deemed sufficient to counteract supply disruptions, with the ability to cover approximately 36 million tons of coal supply, equivalent to 2.1 months of imports from Indonesia [5] Summary by Sections - **Export Quota Negotiations**: Indonesian mines are pausing spot coal exports due to disputes over production quotas, which may lead to a more flexible and self-driven export limitation by companies [2] - **Impact on China**: The suspension of spot exports is projected to have a minor effect on China's coal consumption and imports, with a maximum potential impact of 170 million tons per month if spot exports are completely halted [3] - **Domestic Response**: China's coal production capacity is capable of adjusting to maintain supply levels, mitigating the potential impact of Indonesian export restrictions [5] - **Price Implications**: If the export restrictions persist, it could lead to an increase in coal prices, benefiting companies with significant exposure to spot coal [8]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 邝志鹏 市场分析 期现货方面：截止上周五收盘，焦炭2605合约震荡下跌收于1717元/吨，焦煤2605合约震荡下降收于 1157元/吨。 供给方面：焦炭日均产量63.3万吨，减0.1万吨；247家钢厂日均焦炭产量46.95万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山 样本核定产能利用率为89.3%，环比增0.9%。原煤日均产量199.4万吨，环比增1.7万吨。 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率78.68%，环比上周减少0.16%，同比去年增加0.70% ；高 炉炼铁产能利用率85.51%，环比上周增加0.03%，同比去年增加0.87%；钢厂盈利率40.69%，环比上周 增加0.86%，同比去年减少8.23%；日均铁水产量 228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨，同比去年增加 2.65万吨。 库存方面：根据Mysteel调研数据，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存661.6万吨，增11.3万吨，焦炭可用天数12.4 天，较上周增0.4天。247家钢厂焦煤库存803.2万吨，增1万吨。独立焦企全样本焦煤总库存为1177.7万 吨，增4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain elevated due to persistent cold weather and improving demand, with power coal prices showing a week-on-week increase [1][6]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks in major production areas, which is expected to support coal prices [1][5]. - The report recommends stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to growth-oriented coal companies [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held to enhance safety measures in coal mining, emphasizing a systematic approach to safety governance [5]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou has been established, which is significant for energy security and regional economic development [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, power coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton for different grades, reflecting week-on-week increases [1]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a noted increase in coal output from production areas [1][2]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased to 63.34 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 4.26%, which may influence coal prices [11]. Port Inventory Trends - The average daily coal inflow at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.4613 million tons, while the outflow also saw a slight increase, indicating a dynamic supply-demand balance [16]. - Port inventories decreased to 26.727 million tons, a reduction of 2.91% week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [16]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs decreased to 31.90 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases [22]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings ratios for the upcoming years [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific companies based on their stable dividends and growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations in prices, with thermal coal prices expected to stabilize due to high demand driven by cold weather and reduced production from high-cost mines [1]. - The report highlights the impact of recent accidents in coal mines, which may lead to increased safety regulations and potential supply constraints [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand, particularly in winter, which is expected to support coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued new rules for the long-term electricity market, aiming to adapt to changes in the energy landscape [6]. - Yulin plans to accelerate the construction of energy innovation demonstration zones, with new coal mines and increased production capacity [6]. - A new coal transportation corridor in Xinjiang has been launched, enhancing coal transport efficiency [6]. 2. Price Trends of Thermal and Coking Coal - As of December 26, thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with specific prices reported for various regions [7]. - The report notes that the price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has decreased, indicating a trend of price stabilization [7][10]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices have increased slightly, which may influence coal prices due to the relationship between oil and coal markets [13]. - The report indicates a rising ratio of international oil prices to coal prices, suggesting potential implications for coal demand and pricing strategies [13]. 4. Port Inventory Trends - Coal inventory levels at Bohai Rim ports have increased, with a noted rise in daily coal outflows, indicating a dynamic supply-demand balance [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring port inventories as they can signal future price movements in the coal market [18]. 5. Coastal Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased, which may affect the overall cost structure for coal transportation [26]. - International shipping rates have also shown a downward trend, potentially impacting import dynamics for coal [26]. 6. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key coal companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings [30]. - Companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are highlighted for their strong dividend yields and stable earnings forecasts [30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that coal prices are expected to show a trend of low first and high later in 2026, with the annual average likely to remain roughly the same as in 2025. Demand is anticipated to be a major drag factor, while supply-side constraints are relatively strong [1] - The coal industry is not experiencing overcapacity. The report attributes the unexpected decline in coal prices this year to excessive production beyond approved capacity, which poses challenges to safety and environmental standards. If supply and demand become excessively loose, there may still be room for policy tightening to regulate supply [2] - Demand for thermal coal is expected to remain at a peak level. The report forecasts that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, green energy may begin to squeeze existing coal power demand, but overall electricity demand is likely to maintain steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of over 4.5% from 2024 to 2030 [2] Group 2 - The report suggests that while domestic coking coal supply may have limited upward elasticity in 2026, there is potential for increased imports of Mongolian coal, leading to a relatively loose supply-demand situation for coking coal. However, the actual completion of steel production cuts remains uncertain due to policy negotiations [2] - Overall, the report concludes that the supply-demand balance for coking coal in 2026 is expected to be relatively loose, with the increase in Mongolian coal limiting upward price elasticity. Nonetheless, Mongolian coal cannot replace high-quality domestic coking coal, which is expected to remain in a relatively tight supply situation [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that coal prices are expected to stabilize, with a long-term upward trend anticipated for both thermal coal and coking coal prices. The recent decline in prices is viewed as a temporary adjustment, with expectations for recovery towards the target price range of 800-860 RMB per ton for thermal coal [3][4][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that as of December 12, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 753 RMB per ton, down 38 RMB from the previous week. The price at Guangzhou Port was 815 RMB per ton, indicating a completion of the previously suggested coal-electricity profit-sharing target of 750 RMB [3][4]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown a recent decline but are expected to recover due to tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly as the heating season begins and industrial production ramps up towards year-end [4][5]. - Coking coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1630 RMB per ton, up from a low of 1230 RMB in July, marking a 41.5% increase in futures prices [3][4]. Investment Logic - The report outlines a four-step process for the expected price recovery of thermal coal, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profit-sharing equilibrium between coal and power companies, with a target price of around 750 RMB for 2025 [4][13]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for investing in coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin Kong Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Co., Electric Power Investment Energy 4. Growth logic: Xinji Energy, Guanghui Energy [5][14]. Key Indicators - The coal index fell by 3.64% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.56 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 14.76, and the PB ratio is 1.3 [10][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - Since late November, thermal coal prices have significantly declined due to abnormal weather, accelerated production resumption, and concerns over potential electricity price reductions in 2026. Despite the recent rapid price drop, the report anticipates an improvement in coal demand in 2026, with limited supply capacity utilization, suggesting a potential increase in the price baseline [2][7]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure due to weak demand, factors such as cold weather and snowfall could stabilize and potentially increase prices in the future [6][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.63 percentage points, ranking last among all industries [30]. - As of December 12, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 745 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][58]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report outlines that the recent decline in coal prices is attributed to several factors: warmer weather leading to lower electricity consumption, increased coal supply from resumed production, and concerns regarding electricity price negotiations for 2026 [7]. - The demand outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of stable or slightly positive growth in thermal power generation, despite potential long-term impacts from energy storage technologies [7][8]. - On the supply side, the report notes that while there may be new production capacity in 2026, overall supply growth is expected to remain limited due to ongoing regulatory controls on excessive production [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a balanced risk-reward profile, recommending stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy for their strong fundamentals and dividend potential [7][8]. - It also highlights the potential for higher returns from currently undervalued stocks if demand improves and coal prices rise unexpectedly, suggesting companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry as potential targets [7][8].

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is in a state of reducing production and inventory, with relatively minor contradictions. Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3169 yuan/ton, 3203 yuan/ton, and 3137 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3324 yuan/ton, 3337 yuan/ton, and 3319 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet price is 2990 yuan/ton, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar cost is 3245 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost is 3177 yuan/ton [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit is - 34 yuan/ton, North China rebar profit is - 114 yuan/ton, and South China rebar profit is 206 yuan/ton. East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 24 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average hot metal output is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous value. The output of five major steel products is 855.7 tons, an increase of 5.8 tons or 0.7%. Rebar output is 206.1 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons or 0.9%. Among them, electric - arc furnace output is 29.3 tons, an increase of 2.6 tons or 9.5%, and converter output is 176.7 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil output is 319.0 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 32.3 tons or 2.3%. Rebar inventory is 531.5 tons, a decrease of 21.9 tons or 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons or 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume is 9.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons or 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons or 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or 1.3% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 750 - 820. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin continued to decline, hot metal output decreased, and steel mill maintenance increased. With the rebound of steel prices, there is room for raw material price increases. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the hot metal output has no basis for a large - scale decline, which supports the iron ore demand [3]. 3. Summary by Section Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines is 803.3 yuan/ton, PB fines is 844.7 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 847.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 843.5 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis for Karara fines is 3.8 yuan/ton, PB fines is 45.2 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 47.5 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread is 24.0 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is 22.5 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices at Rizhao Port: Karara fines is 883.0 yuan/ton, PB fines is 796.0 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 824.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 741.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Price indexes: The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 107.4 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe is 107.8 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 117.8 tons or 4.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3323.2 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons or 1.4%. The national monthly import volume is 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 500.6 tons or 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 330.6 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons or 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 49.7 tons or 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel output is 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 149.3 tons or 2.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared to Monday) is 15237.39 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons or 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 58.8 tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged from the previous value [3]. Report on the Coke Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke futures are expected to oscillate. The reference range is 1550 - 1700. The first round of price reduction for coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price reduction in the short term. The supply side has some changes in production, and the demand side is affected by steel mill losses and maintenance. The inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coke is recommended [7]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 1050 - 1150. The spot market is weak, and the supply side has production changes. The demand side's replenishment demand is weakening. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coking coal is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Section Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1662 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1603 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coke 01 contract is 1625 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1752 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is 5 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 149 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1205 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coking coal 01 contract is 1071 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1165 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is - 22 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 20 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.7%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.2% [7]. - Coking coal production: The output of sample coal mines (weekly) has a certain change, and the daily output of coal mines has decreased slightly [7]. Demand - Coke demand: Affected by the decline in hot metal output of steel mills, the demand for coke is weakening [7]. - Coking coal demand: With the recovery of coking plant profits and a slight increase in production, the replenishment demand for coking coal is weakening [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory is 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons or 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons or 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 187.4 tons, a decrease of 5.6 tons or - 2.94% [7]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons or - 2.7%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 1.0% [7].