Core Insights - The UK's Office for National Statistics reported an error in vehicle excise duty data, which will lead to an increase of 0.1 percentage points in the annual consumer price inflation rate and retail price index until April 2025 [1] Group 1 - The error in vehicle excise duty data is significant enough to affect inflation metrics [1] - The adjustment will impact the annual consumer price inflation rate and retail price index, indicating a potential shift in economic indicators [1]

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the Philippines dropped to 1.3% in May, the lowest level since December 2019 [1][2] - The average inflation rate for the first five months of the year is 1.9%, below the government's target range of 2% to 4% [1][2] Inflation Details - The decline in inflation is attributed to slower price increases in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which decreased from 2.9% to 2.3% [1] - The price increase for food and accommodation services fell from 2.3% to 2.0% [1] - Transportation prices saw a larger decline, with a drop from 2.1% to 2.4% [1] Core Inflation - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, remained at 2.2%, but is lower than the 3.1% recorded in the same month last year [2] - The May inflation rate fell within the central bank's forecast range of 0.9% to 1.7% [2] Monetary Policy Implications - The slowdown in inflation led the central bank to lower the key policy rate by 25 basis points in April [2] - The central bank governor indicated the possibility of at least two more rate cuts within the year [2]

麦克勒姆直言："美国发起的贸易摩擦仍是加拿大经济面临的最大逆风。"他表示，自加央行4月中旬作 出维持政策利率的决定以来，美国政府不断增减各种关税。剧烈的金融动荡现有所缓和，但贸易谈判的 结果仍高度不确定，关税远高于今年年初水平，新的贸易行动还可能出现。最近美国进一步提高钢铝关 税，凸显了其贸易政策的不可预测性。 加央行认为，加拿大今年首季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长2.2%，略高于加央行预测，但GDP增长构成基 本符合预期。尽管消费者信心大幅下滑，消费仍保持增长。劳动力市场，尤其是贸易密集型行业呈现疲 态，失业率已升至6.9%。预计加拿大第二季度经济将大幅疲软。 在加联邦政府取消消费者碳税的背景下，加拿大4月份通胀率降至1.7%。但若扣除税收因素，通胀率上 涨2.3%，略高于加央行预期。核心通胀指标及其他潜在通胀指标均有所上升。 中新社多伦多6月4日电(记者余瑞冬)加拿大央行4日宣布，基于当前不确定性依然很高，决定维持基准 利率(即隔夜拆借利率)在2.75%不变。 加央行行长麦克勒姆在渥太华对媒体表示，加拿大经济有所疲软，但并未大幅减弱。近期通胀数据也呈 现出一定程度的坚挺。 加央行表示，将继续关注加拿大经济 ...

加拿大央行：4月份除税后年度通胀率为2.3%，略高于预期。 ...

周三（6月4日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.13附近，截止北京时间11:31分，欧元兑美元 报价1.1375，涨幅0.03%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1372。欧元区主要国家5月通胀数据普遍下 降，为欧洲央行降息铺平道路。德国5月CPI同比上涨2.1%，低于4月的2.2%；西班牙从2.2%降至1.9%， 意大利从2.0%微降至1.9%，法国从0.9%降至0.6%。 这些数据表明，欧元区整体通胀率可能接近甚至低于欧洲央行2%的通胀目标，经济学家预计此次通胀 率将稳定在目标水平。欧洲央行可能成为首家将通胀率恢复至目标水平的主要央行，相比之下，美联储 担心关税可能推高物价并引发更高通胀。欧元区核心通胀（不包括食品和能源）也略有下降，主要由于 服务业通胀下降，同时能源价格低于去年同期水平，拉低了整体通胀率。通胀持续下降使市场预期欧洲 央行下周将降息0.25个百分点至2.0%，这将是自去年6月以来的第八次降息。荷兰国际集团经济学家 CarstenBrzeski表示，德国通胀数据的回落对欧洲央行而言是进一步的宽慰，预计德国通胀率短期内将 继续下行，未来几个月可能降至2%以下。欧洲央行预计周四将下调欧元区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea indicates that inflation rates in the second half of the year will be at the upper end of the 1% range, with June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) potentially rising due to base effects [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Inflation may slow down in the second half of the year due to falling oil prices and weak demand [1] - The CPI in June could see an increase influenced by base effects [1]

智通财经6月4日电，韩国央行预计6月通胀率将略有上升，但下半年将回落至1%区间上端的水平。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：不断升级的无限制贸易战可能引发通胀率飙升。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：在支持降息之前，需要看到通胀率进一步下降的更多进展。 ...

智通财经6月3日电，美联储博斯蒂克表示，在支持降息之前，需要看到通胀率进一步下降的更多进展。 仍然认为今年可能会有一次降息，这取决于经济状况。 ...