Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that asset allocation is a personal expression of one's understanding of the world, risk perception, and life goals, rather than merely a numerical game [2][4][5]. Group 1: Investment Tools and Strategies - Investors can utilize three main investment tools: asset allocation, stock selection, and market timing, with asset allocation accounting for over 90% of the volatility in institutional portfolio returns [2]. - Different investment strategies reflect individual preferences and risk tolerance, leading to diverse asset allocation choices among investors [3][4]. Group 2: Personalization of Investment Portfolios - Investment portfolios serve as a reflection of an individual's values and future aspirations, with choices influenced by personal experiences and environmental factors [3][5]. - The article highlights that there is no absolute right or wrong in investment choices, as they are based on different cognitive frameworks and risk perceptions [4]. Group 3: The Role of External Opinions - Investors often face pressure from external opinions, which can lead to unnecessary adjustments in their portfolios; successful investing relies on deep insights and steadfast beliefs rather than frequent trading [3]. - The article suggests that maintaining a clear understanding of one's investment philosophy can reduce the impact of external criticism [5]. Group 4: The Snowball Three-Factor Method - The Snowball Three-Factor Method promotes long-term investment through diversification across assets, markets, and timing, aiming for diversified sources of returns and risk mitigation [6].

大家周末愉快，一起来简单看下美股市场的表现。 当地时间周五，受美联储理事沃勒鸽派发言影响，美股一度走高，随后有所回落，最终三大指数 中仅道指收涨。本周，道指涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.15%，纳指涨0.21%。 02 "稳定币第一股"再度暴涨20%！ 市场焦点集中在美联储降息议题上， 不过美联储官员之间也存在分歧。并且特朗普在社交媒体上 再度炮轰鲍威尔： "如果他把利率降到应有的水平——1%至2%，这个'笨蛋'每年能为美国节省 多达1万亿美元。" 一起来看具体情况。 01 大分歧！ 美联储官员降息观点不一 美东时间6月20日周五，美联储的"当红理事"沃勒， 他认为最早7月的下次美联储FOMC货币政 策会议上就可以降息。 沃勒在讲话中淡化特朗普政府关税对通胀的冲击。他认为，应该忽略关税对物价的一次性影响。 他强调，如果开始担心劳动力市场下行风险，那现在就得行动，"为什么我们要等到它真正崩溃才 开始降息？" 不过里士满联储主席巴尔金称，他认为FOMC不急于降息。尚未准备好排除关税带来的通胀风 险。如果美国通胀飙升，不能忽视，物价指数仍高于目标。目前数据中没有紧急因素需要美联储 降息。此外旧金山联储主席戴利预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that high dividend stocks are not solely a result of growth but rather possess inherent traits that make them likely to offer high dividends, emphasizing the importance of business models and competitive advantages [2][3]. Business Model - Companies with light asset and low capital expenditure business models are more likely to become high dividend stocks, as they have lower fixed costs and more available cash for dividends [3]. - High capital expenditure businesses face more pressure to reinvest profits, reducing the likelihood of high dividends [3]. Competitive Advantage - Sustainable high dividends require companies to have a competitive moat, ensuring stable output capabilities [3]. - Examples include Changjiang Electric, which benefits from prime hydropower resources, and banks that leverage regulatory licenses and customer loyalty [4]. Dividend Sustainability - Companies like Fuyao and Yili, despite not being cash cows, maintain high dividends due to their competitive advantages, which allow for stable cash flow over time [4]. - The focus for identifying reliable long-term dividend stocks should be on the presence of both a favorable business model and a competitive moat [4]. Dividend Reinvestment - Dividend reinvestment can enhance income over time, creating a compounding effect similar to interest [5]. - Investors can set future passive income goals, allowing for a balance between current living expenses and future financial security [5].

Group 1 - The core concept of the article emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, specifically the "Snowball Three-Point Method," which focuses on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification to achieve sustainable returns while managing risks [1][9] - The article highlights the pitfalls of chasing short-term gains through high-performing funds, illustrating that many investors who bought into popular funds in 2021 faced significant losses instead of the expected returns [1][2] - It discusses the low correlation between different asset classes, such as the negative correlation between bonds and stocks, which can help mitigate overall portfolio volatility during market downturns [2][3] Group 2 - The article presents a classic asset allocation strategy of 30% stocks, 55% bonds, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities, which achieved a cumulative return of 100.26% with an annualized volatility of only 5.73% from 2014 to 2023 [7][8] - It emphasizes the significance of global diversification, noting that different economies have varying asset performance, which can provide opportunities for risk reduction through geographic diversification [3][4] - The article advocates for a disciplined investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, to smooth out costs and enhance investor confidence during market fluctuations [5][6] Group 3 - The importance of regular rebalancing of the investment portfolio is highlighted, as it can improve annualized returns and reduce volatility by maintaining the target risk-return profile [8] - The article underscores that the ultimate goal of investing is to enhance asset value to support life goals, encouraging investors to shift focus from short-term speculation to a systematic investment framework [8][9] - It concludes that the Snowball Three-Point Method offers a replicable and executable investment framework, allowing investors to establish their own investment order in complex market environments [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.36% [1] - Over 4,600 stocks in the market saw declines, indicating a broad-based sell-off [2] Sector Performance - Oil and gas stocks surged against the trend, with companies like Junyou Co. hitting the daily limit up [2][17] - The solid-state battery concept stocks showed significant activity, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up [22] - The pharmaceutical sector faced a collective pullback, highlighted by Changshan Pharmaceutical's 20% limit down, following a substantial increase of nearly 300% from its low in April [5][11] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market also adjusted, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both dropping over 2% [3] - New consumption concept stocks in Hong Kong, such as Pop Mart, saw declines exceeding 5% [12][13] Oil and Gas Sector Insights - The oil and gas sector's rise is attributed to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in international oil prices [20] - Companies like Junyou Co. have seen consecutive gains, reflecting investor confidence amid geopolitical uncertainties [17] Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its commercialization, with major automotive companies like BMW and Mercedes-Benz testing new technologies [25] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the global solid-state battery market will reach $120 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 45%, and China expected to capture 40% of this market [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that even with the same price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) to return on equity (ROE) ratio at the time of purchase, companies with higher ROE will outperform in the long run in the U.S. stock market [1][19]. Group 1: ROE and Market Performance - High ROE is indicative of a strong economic moat and a guarantee of higher returns over the long term [2]. - Apple's ROE was around 33% before 2018, but after that, its debt ratio increased, distorting ROE [2]. - Walmart's ROE is approximately 22%, while Coca-Cola's ROE ranges between 30% and 40% [2]. Group 2: Market Capitalization Growth - On June 19, 2020, Apple and Walmart had similar price-to-earnings ratios of 1.02 and 1.03, respectively [5]. - Over five years, Apple's market value grew by 130%, while Walmart's increased by 97% [7]. - On February 11, 2011, both Apple and Walmart had the same price-to-earnings ratio of 0.56 [8]. - Over fourteen years, Apple's market value increased by 8 times, compared to Walmart's 3 times [9]. Group 3: Comparison with Coca-Cola - On April 29, 2021, Apple and Coca-Cola had close price-to-earnings ratios of 0.84 and 0.86, respectively [11]. - In the following five years, Apple's market value grew by 34%, while Coca-Cola's increased by 30% [12]. - On November 25, 2011, Apple's price-to-earnings ratio was 0.32, compared to Coca-Cola's 0.28 [13]. - Over fourteen years, Apple's market value grew by 8 times, while Coca-Cola's only increased by 1.1 times [17]. Group 4: Walmart's Position - Walmart's ROE is lower than Coca-Cola's, and its market value has been below Coca-Cola's for most of the time [15]. - In 2023, Walmart's market value began to significantly surpass Coca-Cola's, but its price-to-earnings ratio remains higher than Coca-Cola's, which is not sustainable in the long term [15].

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after a dip, with the three major indices showing slight increases: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.24%, and ChiNext Index gained 0.23% [1] - A majority of individual stocks declined, with over 3,400 stocks falling. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.19 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] AI Glasses Sector - AI glasses concept stocks surged, with companies like Qingyue Technology hitting the daily limit, and Cheng Electronics rising by 19.14% [3][4] - Rokid announced the launch of the world's first payment-enabled smart glasses, Rokid Glasses, allowing users to complete payments directly through the glasses without using a mobile phone. This innovation significantly expands the use cases for smart glasses [6] - Rokid has received over 250,000 global orders for the Rokid Glasses, with deliveries set to begin at the end of June [6] Stablecoin Concept - The stablecoin concept continues to gain traction, with stocks like Xinyuan Energy achieving four consecutive trading limits, and Dongxin Peace hitting the daily limit as well [7][8] - Liu Qiangdong announced plans for JD.com to apply for stablecoin qualifications in major global economies, aiming to reduce cross-border payment costs by 90% and improve transaction efficiency to within 10 seconds [10] Financial Sector Developments - At the Lujiazui Forum, the Governor of the People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial opening measures, including the establishment of a trading report library and a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai [12] - The banking sector saw a rise, with several banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Beijing Bank, reaching historical highs in stock prices [13] Military Industry Activity - The military sector showed active trading, with stocks like Beifang Longchang and Jieqiang Equipment hitting daily limits, and several others experiencing significant gains [15][16] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to increased interest in military stocks, with the U.S. considering military action against Iran, which may further influence market dynamics [17] - The 55th Paris Air Show is currently taking place, showcasing China's new generation stealth fighter J-35A, which is expected to boost interest in the aerospace sector [18]

今日A股三大指数小幅下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.04%报3387点，深证成指跌0.12%，创业板指跌0.36%。 全天成交1.24万亿元，较前一交易日缩量 64亿元。 板块方面，脑机接口、油气、电池、核污染防治等板块涨幅居前，游戏、创新药、美容护理、IP经济等板块跌幅居前。 | < | 倍盗康 ··· Q | | --- | --- | | 870199 已收盘 06-17 15:34:55 北京 | | | 3125人加自选(一) > | | | 41.86 +9.66 +30.00% | CN 融 L1 | | 高 41.86 开 39.00 量 91575.00手 总市值 28.51亿 。 | | | . 低 38.50 换 24.62% 额 3.73亿 | 市盈TTM -- | 五日 分时 日K 月K 李K 年K 分钟 · 周K 均价:40.76 最新:41.86 +9.66 +30.00% | 86 | | 30.00% 卖5 | | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 英4 | | | 0 | | | | 卖3 | -- | | 0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by continuous money printing by central banks and the inherent value of gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [3][21][57]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - From December 1990 to June 2025, gold prices increased from $388 to $3452.60 per ounce, representing a total increase of 789.85% over 34.51 years, with an annualized return of 6.54% [4]. - Gold experienced two significant drawdowns: a maximum drawdown of -39.12% from February 1996 to July 1999 and -44.36% from September 2011 to December 2015 [7][10]. - After each major drawdown, gold prices eventually reached new highs, indicating resilience in the long-term trend [8]. Group 2: Recent Trends in Gold Prices - From July 2015 to June 2025, gold prices rose by 228.76%, continuing an upward trend for 9.5 years [14]. - Since January 2024, gold prices have increased by 66.65%, from $2071.8 to $3452.60 [18]. - In 2024, gold prices rose by 27.39%, and in 2025, they have already increased by 30.81% [21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is often negative, with periods of both strong and weak correlation observed [22]. - Key factors affecting gold prices include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, US debt creditworthiness, economic recession risks, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and demand for gold in jewelry and industrial applications [24][26][29][30]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with notable purchases from countries like Poland and China [41][44]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential impact of US debt ceiling negotiations on market stability and gold prices, highlighting the risks associated with political gridlock [38][40]. - The ongoing trend of central banks accumulating gold is expected to support long-term price increases, as seen in recent data showing significant purchases [41][46]. - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with the expectation that even if short-term fluctuations occur, the long-term upward trajectory will prevail [57].

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 涨时无限溺爱，下跌时吹毛求疵 01 市场从来都是势利的 2020~21年，由于泡泡玛特的火爆，市场上出现了大量盲盒类公司，传统的巨头也向这一领域 拓展，当时市场最担心的是竞争格局恶化，这也是中国大部分行业的通病。 实际上我并不担心这个问题，盲盒的公司虽多，但形成"IP全产业链闭环"的，只此一家，而且 这一全产业链模式的壁垒很高，形成有一定的偶然性，很难复制，"塑料茅台"并不夸张，事实 证明，竞争格局反而不是问题。 真正的危险是这种模式本身的周期性危机，以及发展战略与经营管理上容易出现的一些失误。 02 库存与竞争加剧 2022年，公司进入经营低谷，全年营收增长2.8%，净利润下降44%，毛利下降4个百分点至 57.5%。而被认为是受益于疫情的线上零售，营收已经变成同比下降-1.7%，天猫旗舰店更是 下降-23%，所以不能把泡泡玛特2022年业绩下降简单归因于疫情与封控的影响。 了解一个有钱人 ...