日本经济再生大臣、首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国财长贝森特进行了电话会谈。美国与日本同意继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 这是高盛两个月内第二次上调目标价，此前一次上调在5月初。 今年早些时候，包括美国银行在内的主要投行曾将目标价下调至6000点以下，因4月美国总统特朗普 的"解放日"关税引发对美国经济衰退的担忧，加剧全球贸易紧张局势，导致股市抛售。 然而，此后部分关税税率下调缓解了投资者担忧，经济衰退风险减弱推动股市在上周创下历史新高。 高盛在周一晚的报告中称："2026年盈利增长前景稳健、美联储重启降息、投资者仓位中性，这些因素 意味着随着近期美股的反弹扩张，市场将进一步上涨。" 上月，巴克莱、花旗集团和德意志银行已上调标普500指数目标价。 近期美国疲软的经济数据也强化了市场对美联储进一步降息的预期，这可能对股市有利。 音频由扣子空间生成 美国银行全球研究部与高盛周二成为最新上调标普500指数（SPX）年底目标价的华尔街投行，这一预 期转变主要受政策不确定性降低、企业盈利韧性及美联储潜在降息推动。 美国银行将该基准指数目标价从5600点上调至6300点，高盛则从6100点上调至6600点——相较于 6229.28点的最新收盘价，分别意味着1%和6%左右的上涨空间。 高盛表示，"近期通胀 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs of 25% on South Korea and Japan, and 30%-40% on other Asian and African countries, with the effective date postponed to August 1, allowing more time for negotiations [1][2] - Market reactions to the tariff announcements have been muted, with major U.S. indices declining less than 1% and Asian markets showing gains, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its target for the S&P 500 index, reflecting expectations of quicker and deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with forecasts of 6400, 6600, and 6900 points for the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that if negotiations do not progress, tariffs could revert to levels seen in April, emphasizing the need for maximum pressure in trade talks [2] - Morgan Stanley suggests that agreements with other countries may be reached before August 1, with potential scenarios including tactical tariff increases if negotiations stall [2][3] - Concerns about U.S. debt sustainability persist, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that a recent bill could increase national debt by $4.1 trillion by 2034 [5][6] Group 3 - Global investors are increasingly considering hedging against dollar risk, with European investors finding better yields in local bonds compared to U.S. Treasuries after accounting for currency risk [6][7] - The trend of increasing gold holdings among central banks and institutional investors continues, as gold is viewed as a hedge against dollar depreciation and geopolitical risks [8][9] - China's central bank has been accumulating gold, with reserves reaching approximately 2298.55 tons, indicating a sustained interest in gold as a strategic asset [8][9]

Group 1 - Investors are increasingly concerned about a new wave of volatility as summer approaches, with historical data indicating that the VIX tends to spike significantly in the third quarter [1] - Multiple potential risk points in 2025 could trigger another round of market shocks, including retaliatory tariffs in August that may impact inflation and lead to a reassessment of interest rate expectations [1][2] - Despite these concerns, the market has shown strong resilience this year, supported by robust macro fundamentals and a willingness from policymakers to adjust policies in response to market turbulence [1][3] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is not yet significant, but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June and July will be closely monitored, as strong data could deter the Federal Reserve from rate cuts [2] - If tariffs are raised unexpectedly in August, it could trigger a new wave of selling in the market, especially if the initial tax rate is based on the previously implemented 10% benchmark [1][2] - Other potential risks include a collapse in economic growth resilience, rising fiscal concerns, and geopolitical shocks that could drive up oil prices, although the market has maintained resilience amid tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].

Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) is considered the most exciting technological transformation of this generation, with semiconductor companies leading the innovation wave. AI accelerators for large language models are expected to account for 20% of the total semiconductor market in 2024, with this share projected to grow further. Nvidia is at the core of the AI boom, and both Nvidia and AMD are expected to perform well in the AI sector despite challenges in the Chinese market due to U.S. restrictions [1][20][16]. Semiconductor Industry Overview - The semiconductor demand is experiencing a broad surge, with digital semiconductors for AI leading the trend, while automotive and industrial semiconductors are gradually rebounding [8]. - Global semiconductor trade data indicates strong revenue growth driven by AI, with a projected 23% increase in chip industry sales in the first half of 2025 [9]. AI Semiconductor Demand - Nvidia's AI accelerators are projected to account for 20% of semiconductor revenue in 2024, with significant growth expected in 2025. Despite losing over $10.5 billion in revenue from the Chinese market, Nvidia's sales remain strong in non-China markets [20][16]. - Data center spending is expected to account for 25% of semiconductor end-market demand in 2024, with Nvidia maintaining a leading position in AI infrastructure [17]. Analog/Mixed-Signal Semiconductor Outlook - The severe cyclical downturn in the analog/mixed-signal semiconductor sector is nearing its end, with inventory levels dropping to a point where reordering is necessary. The long-term trend of increasing chip content in automotive and industrial applications remains solid [2][45]. - The median valuation of analog/mixed-signal chip manufacturers is considered undervalued by 13%, while digital chip stocks are undervalued by 3% [5]. Automotive Semiconductor Market - Automotive semiconductors are projected to account for 12% of chip industry revenue in 2024, with an increase in chip content per vehicle, especially in electric vehicles [49][53]. - The Chinese electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 25% in 2024, further driving demand for automotive semiconductors [53]. Industrial Semiconductor Market - Industrial semiconductors, which include military, aerospace, and medical applications, are expected to recover from a cyclical low, despite concerns over tariffs [56]. - The revenue growth of industrial semiconductors is anticipated to outpace U.S. manufacturing activity due to increasing chip content in devices [58]. Wireless Semiconductor Market - The wireless semiconductor market, primarily used in smartphones, is recovering from overordering during the pandemic, with a projected 28% market share in 2024 [36]. - The growth of wireless semiconductors is expected to be modest, with concerns over tariffs and a lack of a strong rebound in the consumer electronics sector [60]. Financial Performance and Margins - Nvidia's gross margin remains unmatched, peaking at 78%, while AMD's gross margin is gradually improving, expected to reach around 40% due to market restrictions [41][42]. - The gross margins for analog/mixed-signal semiconductors are anticipated to rebound as revenue growth resumes following the cyclical downturn [62].

马来西亚贸易部澄清，美国征收的25%关税并非在10%的基础关税之上。 ...

Group 1 - The current silver price is $36.76 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.64 and $36.86 during the day [1][2] - The strong U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on silver prices, as investors flock to the dollar amid trade uncertainties [3][4] - The market is facing unpredictability due to conflicting ideologies between Trump's protectionist policies and Musk's advocacy for free trade, which may complicate silver's role as a hedge [4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if silver fails to hold the short-term pivot at $36.30, it could lead to a price drop to the major support range of $35.40 to $34.87 [5] - The market is currently experiencing profit-taking pressure, similar to gold, as investors reassess their positions ahead of clarity on U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve actions [5] - The medium-term trend remains supported by the 50-day moving average at $34.50 and the 200-day moving average at $32.40, maintaining a "buy on dips" strategy [5]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

马来西亚制造商联合会：敦促政府干预以应对美国关税，已受到之前10%关税的影响。 ...