Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further interest rate cuts due to stable inflation and external economic uncertainties, particularly influenced by U.S. trade policies [1][3][5] Group 1: ECB's Current Stance - ECB official Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated that there is no significant upward pressure on consumer prices, suggesting potential for lower borrowing costs [1] - The current ECB interest rate stands at 2.25%, compared to the Federal Reserve's rate of 4.25%, providing room for future rate cuts [1] - The ECB's monetary policy may need to be more accommodative to address external pressures on the eurozone economy [1] Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among ECB Officials - Some ECB officials advocate for moderate rate cuts to support the economy amid global trade tensions, while others express caution regarding potential inflation risks [3] - Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot warned that global tariff policies pose significant challenges to inflation, indicating a complex economic outlook [3] - The ECB faces a dilemma between stimulating economic growth and managing future inflation risks [3] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The ECB's policy decisions are critical in balancing economic support and inflation control, which will shape the eurozone's economic trajectory in the coming years [5] - While short-term rate cuts may continue, the ECB must carefully assess the balance between inflation pressures and economic growth in the medium term [5]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据新华社消息，来自伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯 社27日报道，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃日前表示，伊朗在任何 情况下都不会放弃铀浓缩权利；据以色列媒体报道，以色列总 理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统特朗普就如何应对伊朗进行了激烈的 电话交谈；今天晚间将召开欧佩克+会议。评：前期OPEC+增产 落实情况小于预期，原油短期压力不大。中期看，当前进入 OPEC+7月政策窗口期，关注政策情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】美联储威廉姆斯，4月份关税事件显示市场 功能失调，保持通胀预期稳固至关重要。美国储备水平仍然明 显充裕，当遭受巨大冲击时，能通过储备金获得缓冲是非常好 的。评：市场预期美国6月份90%以上不会降息，美国政府宣称 美欧关税谈判取得重大进展，美元指数反弹，黄金承压。黄金 中期依然高位震荡对待，关注美国关税政策及地缘情况。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月28日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F30 ...

Production Insights - Overall production heat has declined, with coke oven capacity utilization down by 0.05 pct and blast furnace operating rate down by 0.46 pct[3] - Rebar production increased by 49,500 tons, while asphalt operating rate fell by 3.6 pct[3][14] - PX and PTA operating rates decreased by 0.81 pct and 0.58 pct respectively[14] Demand Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, with 30 major cities recording a total of 1.8065 million square meters, down by 36,500 square meters from the previous week[4][22] - The land transaction area increased by 3.3361 million square meters, with the premium rate for residential land dropping by 7.46[4][22] - Domestic shipping indices showed mixed results, with SCFI up by 7.21% and BDI down by 3.46%[4][31] Price Movements - Prices for crude oil, coking coal, rebar, and aluminum have decreased, with Brent crude down by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel[5][34] - Coking coal futures fell by 5.61% to 815.5 yuan per ton, while LME copper and zinc prices increased by 1.76% and 0.78% respectively[5][34] - Agricultural product prices continued a seasonal decline, with pork prices up by 0.05% and egg prices down by 1.74%[5][37] Logistics and Transportation - Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, with a drop of approximately 128,700 and 112,900 passengers respectively[6][39] - Domestic flight numbers increased by 1.73%, while international flights decreased by 1.27%[6][39][42] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility of policy effects falling short of expectations and liquidity tightening beyond forecasts[6][45]

Group 1 - The intertwined and complementary supply chains between China and the U.S. make it difficult for the two economies to decouple [2][4] - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 12.50% in 2019 due to tariffs, but rebounded to $451.81 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 7.90% [2] - In 2022, China's exports to the U.S. reached a record high of $581.78 billion, up 21.60% compared to 2018, indicating that the impact of tariffs was temporary [2] Group 2 - The Biden administration's "small yard, high walls" policy has had a more significant negative impact on China's exports to the U.S., which fell to $500.29 billion in 2023, a decrease of 13.15% from 2022 [2][3] - Despite the decline, exports began to recover in the third quarter of 2023, with December 2024 exports projected to reach $48.83 billion, an annualized rate of approximately $585.96 billion, slightly above the 2022 record [3] Group 3 - Experts agree that the deep economic interdependence between China and the U.S. makes a "no-cost decoupling" impossible, and the U.S. reliance on Chinese products is underestimated [4] - The current economic resilience in China is supported by strong export performance and industrial production, with monetary policy expected to play a key role in addressing external uncertainties [4][5] - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive shift in profit growth observed in Q1 2025, signaling the end of a four-year downturn [5]

受美国关税和订单发货节奏影响，Q1 公司组件、储能发货量环比下降。公司Q1组件出货6.9GW，环比 下降，单W净利承压，主要系东南亚201 关税+双反关税+国内出口退税导致；Q1 储能出货0.8GW，环 比下降，主要系订单发货节奏原因， 储能价格、毛利率维稳。 Q2 储能发货量恢复有助于促进公司业绩修复。Q2 组件业务在Q1 关税条件基础上，进一步叠加了10% 基础对等关税， 但考虑美国5GW 组件开工率环比提升，本土生产组件利润较好，可能对冲对等关税影 响；Q1 公司提前出货了部分储能产品，Q2 储能受关税影响可控，但出货量预计可回到正常水平，价 格、毛利率预计环比企稳，带动Q2 业绩环比修复。 下半年美国关税政策带来的不确定性较大，公司正在积极研究应对策略，包括：（1）通过90 天窗口期 利用好现有供应链航道；（2）加快推进制造、采购环节向低关税成本地区转移；（3）发挥美国本土组 件、电池、储能产品优势，美国5GW组件产能当前开工率已经达到60-70%，5GW电池预计2025Q4 投 产，3GWh 储能集成+电芯已经规划；（4）积极与客户、供应商协商分摊关税成本；（5）通过多种渠 道争取特定产品关税豁免或 ...

1、习近平同法国总统通电话； 2、【新思想引领新征程】推进精神文明建设 为强国复兴伟业凝心聚力； 3、李强将对印度尼西亚进行正式访问并赴马来西亚出席东盟—中国—海合会峰会； 4、赵乐际同土库曼斯坦议长举行会谈； 5、丁薛祥会见荷兰外交大臣； 6、韩正出席2025年全球贸易投资促进峰会开幕式并致辞； 7、神舟二十号航天员乘组圆满完成第一次出舱活动； 8、第二十一届中国（深圳）国际文化产业博览交易会开幕； 9、多举措支持加快构建科技金融体制； 10、规范涉企行政执法 营造法治化营商环境； 11、国际生物多样性日：守护万物共生 共绘和美画卷； 12、第四届中国—中东欧国家博览会在浙江宁波开幕； 13、23项措施支持小微企业融资； 14、《关于支持老年人社会参与 推动实现老有所为的指导意见》出台； 15、总台民族语言节目创办暨新中国民族广播事业诞生75周年座谈会召开； 16、雄忻高铁雄安地下段隧道全部贯通； 17、第七届中国西部国际投资贸易洽谈会在重庆开幕； 18、第十届中国戏剧奖·梅花表演奖揭晓； 19、世贸组织成员批评美国关税政策 呼吁强化多边贸易体制； 21、加沙地带多地持续遭袭 以总理称将全面控制加沙 以军在 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭：尽管美国关税政策的不确定性仍存，但市场正逐渐恢复一些平静，对日本经 济的影响仍在观察之中。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：美国关税政策正在制造不确定性。 ...

继续关注美国关税政策，特朗普是否干预中东局势，黄金上方压力3350？点击观看金十研究员文成直播 分析 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - The German Economic Expert Committee predicts that the German economy will stagnate in 2025, with a growth of 1.0% expected in 2026 [1] - The main factors influencing the German economy are the U.S. tariff policies and the new government's fiscal spending package [1] - The average consumer price inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 2.1% in 2025, slightly decreasing to 2.0% in 2026 [1] Economic Forecast - The forecast indicates that if the predictions hold true, it will mark the third consecutive year of no growth for the German economy, following GDP contractions of 0.3% in 2023 and 0.2% in 2024 [1] - The spring forecast report led by former German Economic Minister Robert Habeck also anticipated stagnation in 2025 [1]