Core Viewpoint - The trade-weighted Australian dollar exchange rate has remained stable since February, providing little support for GDP growth [1] Group 1 - The stability of the trade-weighted Australian dollar indicates a lack of significant fluctuations in currency value [1] - The Australian dollar's performance has not contributed positively to the country's economic growth [1]

泰国一季度GDP同比增长3.1%，预估为2.9%；环比增长0.7%，预估为0.5%。 ...

智通财经5月16日电，香港1季度GDP终值同比增长3.1%，符合市场预期。 ...

马来西亚第一季度GDP终值同比增长4.4%，预估为4.5%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK's GDP grew by 1.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, surpassing the expected growth of 1.2% and slightly lower than the previous value of 1.5% [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the recent US-China trade negotiations on various industries, particularly focusing on technology and military sectors, which are expected to see optimistic structural trends in the medium term [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Reductions**: The reduction in tariffs exceeded expectations, boosting market confidence. Short-term fluctuations are anticipated, but medium-term outlooks for technology and military sectors remain positive [1][2]. - **Export Growth**: The annual export growth is projected to be between -1.2% and -2%, an improvement from previous pessimistic forecasts of -4.1%. This indicates a narrowing drag on GDP from 0.5 percentage points to between -0.1 and -0.2 percentage points [1][4]. - **Impact on Consumer Goods**: New tariff policies will most significantly affect consumer goods, especially electronics. The US's high dependency on direct imports from China means that demand for certain products like furniture and footwear is expected to normalize following tariff reductions [1][5]. - **Intermediate Goods Dependency**: The US relies heavily on Chinese intermediate goods such as chemicals and plastics, which are expected to be most affected by tariff changes. The 90-day exemption period is likely to positively impact direct trade, potentially leading to a short-term export rebound [1][8][9]. - **Domestic Policy Continuity**: The outcomes of the negotiations will not significantly alter domestic policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and employment, as well as promoting technology consumption. Counter-cyclical policies will continue to be implemented [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The market reacted positively to the unexpected results of the trade negotiations, with expectations of a strong opening following the announcement. The structural optimism for technology and military sectors is highlighted [2][15]. - **Long-term Trade Relations**: The new trade policies reflect ongoing issues with US political credibility and suggest that further negotiations will be necessary to establish a stable economic relationship between the two countries [6]. - **Consumer Goods and Electronics**: Consumer goods account for 40% to 50% of total exports to the US, with electronics being particularly sensitive to tariff changes. The exemption for certain consumer electronics is noted, with a significant portion of imports still subject to tariffs [5][7]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: The presence of the 90-day exemption period is expected to lead to improved export data in the coming months, with a strong likelihood of GDP growth exceeding 5% if current trends continue [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of the US-China trade negotiations on various sectors and the overall economic outlook.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a real GDP growth target of 8 percent for 2025, supported by increased domestic consumption and investment [7][30]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment [2][14]. - Merchandise exports growth slowed to 10.6 percent in Q1-2025 from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, influenced by high base effects and potential global demand slowdown [3][15]. - FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, while FDI disbursements remained resilient at $4.9 billion, reflecting a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year [3][21]. - Industrial production increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, compared to 4.8 percent in March 2024, with significant contributions from apparel, electronics, and machinery [4][17]. - Retail sales surged by 10.8 percent year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly two years, supported by a 9.5 percent increase in average monthly income [4][23]. - Inflation rose to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, driven by food and housing prices, but remains below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth reached 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, with consumption and investment growing by 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively [14]. Trade and Investment - Merchandise exports grew by 10.6 percent in Q1-2025, down from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, while imports increased by 16.9 percent year-on-year [3][15]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1-2025 from $7.7 billion in Q1-2024 [15]. Industrial Production - Industrial production index rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the PMI indicating expansion at 50.5 [4][17]. Domestic Consumption - Retail sales of goods and services increased by 10.8 percent year-on-year, supported by rising average monthly income [4][23]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation increased to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the SBV raising the inflation target to 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Fiscal Performance - Revenue collection for Q1-2025 reached 36.7 percent of the annual plan, driven by increases in VAT and corporate income tax [6][30].

哈萨克斯坦政府：今年一月至四月GDP增长6%。 ...

英国央行：预计2025年GDP增长1%，2026年增长1.25%，2027年增长1.5%。 ...