Market Reaction - The rumor of Powell considering resignation led to significant market volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.63%, S&P 500 down 0.33%, and Nasdaq decreasing by 0.22% on July 11 [1] - Investors showed heightened sensitivity to changes in the Federal Reserve leadership amid economic uncertainties, particularly regarding tariff policies [1] Safe-Haven Assets - Gold is anticipated to rise, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce if Powell's departure triggers a shift towards looser monetary policy [2] - Bitcoin is projected to surge to $250,000 due to perceived damage to the dollar's credibility [2] Federal Reserve Independence and Policy Risks - Concerns about political interference stem from ongoing pressure from the Trump administration, focusing on policy disagreements and the "luxury waste" of the Fed's renovation budget, which increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2] - The Federal Reserve Act stipulates that the President can only dismiss the Fed Chair for "misconduct or dereliction of duty," making policy disagreements an insufficient reason for dismissal [3] Long-Term Economic and Policy Implications - If Powell resigns, potential successors may favor interest rate cuts to align with Trump's economic stimulus goals, posing risks of inflation rebound given the current inflation rate of 2.3%-2.4% [4] - Political interference in central bank independence could undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency, leading to a shift of funds towards alternatives like the euro and yen [5] Market Chain Reactions - The anticipated resignation of Powell could steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve, resulting in increased long-term financing costs [5] Rumor Authenticity Assessment - Conflicting evidence surrounds the resignation rumors, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency director citing reports without specific sources, while the Fed officially stated Powell intends to complete his term until May 2026 [7] - The resignation rumors are viewed as a tactic by the Trump administration to pressure Powell into compromising on interest rate policies [8] Conclusion - The rumors, while unconfirmed, highlight the political risks facing U.S. monetary policy, with short-term market volatility and long-term damage to dollar credibility being key impacts [9]

哈塞特的核心竞争力 63岁的哈塞特是至少四位美联储主席候选人之一，特朗普认为他们会比现任主席鲍威尔更响应自己的降 息诉求。在上周五被记者问及是否会解雇鲍威尔时，特朗普表示不会，但称鲍威尔"做得很糟糕"，并认 为利率应再降3个百分点。 据《华尔街邮报》报道，知情人士透露，白宫顶级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）正成为下任 美联储主席的主要候选人。当前，美国总统特朗普正考虑任命一位与自己立场更一致的美联储主席。 目前遴选过程仍存在变数，哈塞特未必能最终获任，但知情人士称，这位国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）主任、特朗普第一任期核心经济顾问，拥有其他候选人不具备的优势。 哈塞特曾担任经济顾问委员会主席，是保守派经济学家，曾在哥伦比亚大学任教，任职于美国企业研究 所等右翼智库，职业生涯早期曾在美联储担任经济学家。他公开主张降息，呼应特朗普"美联储应更支 持经济增长"的观点。 作为税收与投资关系专家，他为特朗普本月签署的大规模税收与支出法案提供了关键经济论证。 哈塞特与特朗普关系密切，为其效力近十年，是少数既能赢得总统青睐又始终获其信任的顾问之一。他 在特朗普第一任 ...

特朗普在他的首个任期(2018年)起便开始不停抨击鲍威尔，而近期的攻击变得特别频繁及激烈。2025年 6月以来，特朗普几乎每隔一两周就在不同场合公开批评美联储和鲍威尔。 特朗普周一表示，"我们有一个非常糟糕的美联储主席，非常糟糕。我已经试着对他客气了，但没 用。"他还补充称，"利率每高一个百分点，就要让我们多付3600亿美元。现在利率在4.5%左右，我们为 什么还要支付这么高的成本？" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普再度对美联储主席鲍威尔发难，不仅猛烈抨击其高利率政策，更称 其为"蠢货"，并敦促美联储将联邦基准利率降至1%。这一言论在当前通胀仍高于目标、经济运行稳健 的背景下，引发市场和经济学界广泛争议。 特朗普强调，美国应该将利率降至1%，以降低借贷成本，"我们本该只付1%的利息，而不是4.5%。" 当前美国经济并不符合这些条件。就业接近充分、通胀仍高于2%的美联储目标、经济增长保持稳定。 在此环境下贸然降息，不仅不利于物价稳定，还可能被市场解读为美联储屈服于政治压力，削弱其独立 性与公信力。 尤其是考虑到美国国债市场规模高达36万亿美元，一旦投资者对美联储失去信心，可能引发市场动荡。 除了货币政策争议 ...

Group 1 - The core of the current financial turmoil is the significant division within the Federal Reserve, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policies [2] - The divergence in predictions among Fed officials is at a ten-year high, with a gap of up to 50 basis points between the most and second most common forecasts [2] - Economic data presents conflicting signals, with the core PCE price index rising 2.7% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Trump's recent trade actions, including the termination of negotiations with Canada and threats of new tariffs, have led to significant market reactions, including a 422-point drop in the Dow [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that the market has priced in two interest rate cuts this year, revealing the political influence on economic decisions [4] - The Federal Reserve's independence is under pressure as political figures, including Trump, push for lower interest rates to support fiscal plans, with potential budget deficits projected to reach $3 trillion over the next decade [5] Group 3 - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 75%, reflecting market uncertainty and the impact of recent economic data [7] - The dollar index has dropped to 97.18, marking a decline of over 10% this year, the largest half-year drop since the early 1970s [7] - The upcoming earnings reports for S&P 500 companies are expected to show only a 4% growth in EPS, amidst rising effective tariff rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, potentially aiming to replace him with a more dovish leadership that emphasizes economic growth, amidst rising tensions over the Fed's renovation costs [1][2][10]. Group 1: Pressure on Powell - The Trump administration's pressure on Powell has escalated, focusing on the controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as a potential legal basis for his removal [2][4]. - The renovation costs for the Federal Reserve's headquarters have surged by 30%, from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, raising concerns and leading to accusations of mismanagement [3][10]. - White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has suggested that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell based on "just cause," which may relate to the renovation cost overruns [4][9]. Group 2: Potential Candidates and Market Reactions - Several potential candidates for Powell's position have begun to express support for the Trump administration's views, with some calling for significant reforms within the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Market analysts warn that the risk of Powell's removal is significantly underestimated, with predictions of a 3-4% drop in the dollar index and a 30-40 basis point sell-off in U.S. Treasuries if he is forced out [10][11]. - The potential dismissal of Powell is viewed as a direct threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to broader instability in global markets [11].

特朗普再度向鲍威尔施压。 当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应该辞职。美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特也表 示，若有正当理由，特朗普有权解雇鲍威尔。 7月14日， 哈塞特再次发声，称 美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 目前一场围绕美联储总部装修项目的争议，正演变为特朗普与鲍威尔之间的最新交锋。美联储罕见通过官网新 增的"常见问题"页面，为其25亿美元总部装修项目进行辩护，直接回击特朗普政府的一系列批评指控。 值得注意的是，市场或许低估了鲍威尔被解雇的风险。德意志银行在最新发布的报告中警告称，这是一个重大 的且被低估的风险，可能引发投资者对美元、美国国债的抛售。 "鲍威尔应该辞职" 据央视新闻，当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普再次表示，希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职。 据悉，特朗普在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地的停机坪上表示，如果鲍威尔辞职，那将是一件好事。特朗普 说："我希望他辞职，他应该辞职，因为他对国家非常不利。" 当天，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特在接受美国广播公司《本周》节目采访时称，若有正当理由，特朗普有权解雇 鲍威尔。他还指责美联储对其华盛顿总部翻修工程超支"负有重大责任"。 哈塞特称，特朗普是 ...

智通财经7月14日电，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美联储应保持独立性；不会对"其出任 美联储主席"进行猜测。 ...

当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普以美联储总部翻修工程超支7亿美元为由，再次公开要求美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，并暗示将通过法律途径罢免其职务。这 一被市场称为"装修门"的事件引发全球金融市场震动，美联储连夜发布声明澄清称翻修工程系必要维护，与政策无关。现货黄金价格在7月14日亚盘冲高至 3372.49美元/盎司后回落，最终重新拉升至3370美元附近，市场避险情绪与政策博弈交织，黄金短期波动加剧。 一、特朗普借"装修门"发难，美联储独立性面临考验 特朗普团队此次发难的核心依据是美联储总部翻修工程成本从最初的18亿美元飙升至25亿美元，白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔・沃特指责鲍威尔在国会 证词中"隐瞒奢华设施配置"，包括屋顶花园、VIP电梯等。白宫经济顾问哈塞特更声称，若美联储无法合理解释超支问题，总统有权以"管理不善"为由罢免 鲍威尔。这一指控被舆论视为特朗普继施压降息后，试图通过法律途径干预美联储的最新手段。 法律层面，根据1935年《联邦储备法》，总统仅能以"效率低下、玩忽职守或渎职"等"正当理由"罢免美联储主席，政策分歧不构成合法依据。然而，特朗普 政府正推动最高法院重新审理"汉弗莱执行人"案，试图推翻193 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlights a significant power struggle that reflects deep divisions within the U.S. regarding monetary policy and economic governance, potentially posing risks to the global financial system [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell centers on the costly renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which he labels as "severe mismanagement," indicating a broader political offensive against the Fed [3]. - The former president has called for an unprecedented 3 percentage point cut in interest rates, a move typically reserved for extreme economic crises, challenging the Fed's independence [3][4]. - Trump's actions suggest an attempt to undermine the Fed's autonomy by seeking a successor to Powell who would align more closely with presidential directives, threatening the institution's role as a stabilizer in the market [8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Powell's refusal to lower interest rates stems from concerns that Trump's trade policies could lead to soaring inflation, advocating for maintaining higher rates until economic conditions improve [4]. - The ongoing power struggle between the U.S. government and the central bank raises concerns about potential impacts on financial markets and economic expectations, with the possibility of increased volatility in asset prices and capital flows [6][8]. - Economists express worry that undermining the Fed's credibility could lead to significant fluctuations in interest rate expectations, further destabilizing the financial system and clouding the economic recovery [6][8]. Group 3: Institutional Integrity - The conflict underscores a fundamental challenge to the Fed's independence, which is crucial for avoiding politically motivated monetary policy errors and ensuring economic stability [3][4]. - Trump's push for a shadow leadership within the Fed disrupts the traditional continuity of policy-making, increasing uncertainty and potentially harming long-term economic health [8]. - The tension between the government and the central bank, particularly in the context of the U.S. as the world's largest economy, raises alarms about the broader implications for global financial stability and economic growth [8].

他还指出，此举可能引发市场对美联储货币互换机制被政治化的担忧，尤其是在与其他国家央行的合作 方面。"投资者会将此事视为对美联储独立性的直接挑战，使该机构面临极端制度性压力，"他说。 "鉴于美联储是全球美元货币体系的核心，显然这种冲击将远超美国本土，影响全球金融稳定。" 德意志银行策略师警告称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）可能罢免美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔（Jerome Powell）一事，是当前市场严重低估的重要风险事件，若成真，可能引发美元与美债的抛售 潮。 本周，特朗普表示，如果一位政府官员关于"美联储总部装修项目存在误导国会行为"的指控属实，鲍威 尔"应立即辞职"。这一言论是特朗普对鲍威尔持续批评的延续——他一直要求大幅降息，并暗示可能在 鲍威尔任期结束前提名继任者。 鲍威尔坚持美联储独立性，多次抵制降息压力，并表示即便总统要求，他也不会辞职。他承认总部装修 预算超支，但对部分报告内容提出异议，称其"明显误导"。 德意志银行全球外汇策略主管乔治·萨拉韦洛斯（George Saravelos）在发给客户的报告中指出，市场目 前对鲍威尔被罢免的概率"定价过低"，例如预测平台Polyma ...