一、基本面： 美国参议院共和党人以最微弱的优势通过了特朗普总统的大规模税收和支出法案，推进了一项将削减税 收、减少社会安全保障项目、增加军事和移民执法支出，同时增加3.3万亿国家债务的一揽子计划。该 法案目前在众议院等待最终批准，但众议院的少数共和党人已经对参议院的部分条款表示了反对。特朗 普希望在7月4日独立日假期前签署该法案，众议院议长约翰逊在一份声明中表示，他的目标是在这一日 期完成签署。 美联储主席鲍威尔在年会上重申，美联储计划在降息之前"等待并了解更多"关税对通胀的影响，再次未 理会特朗普总统要求立即大幅降息的呼吁。不过，他也拒绝排除美联储在7月29-30日会议上降息的可能 性。 美国5月份职位空缺意外增加了37.4万个，达到776.9万个，但招聘人数减少了11.2万人，降至550.3万 人，加剧了劳动力市场在特朗普政府对进口商品加征关税的不确定性下正在减速的迹象，此时为期90天 的对等关税暂停期即将结束。虽然6月份ISM制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从5月份的六个月低点48.5 微升至49.0，但来自企业的消息表明关税正在造成损失。经济学家表示，JOLTS报告表明，美联储可能 等到9月份才会恢复降 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has established a complex tariff system that impacts global trade partners, including a 10% baseline tariff, a 24% "reciprocal tariff" for Japan, and a 25% specific industry tariff on automobiles [3] - The 25% automobile tariff, effective since April 3, poses a significant threat to Japan's automotive industry, with Toyota exporting approximately 530,000 vehicles to the U.S. annually, accounting for 20% of its U.S. sales [3][4] - The United Nations trade agency warns that the 25% tariff could result in a $17 billion loss in Japan's automotive exports to the U.S., with Japan's automotive exports to the U.S. projected to be around $40 billion in 2024, representing 28% of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts a 5% to 8% decrease in Toyota's U.S. sales, leading to a reduction of 340 billion yen in annual operating profit [4] - Japanese automakers have invested over $60 billion in the U.S., creating 2.3 million jobs, indicating that U.S. tariffs could negatively impact the American job market [5] - The core issue in U.S.-Japan negotiations revolves around Japan's demand for the cancellation of the 25% automobile tariff and the 24% reciprocal tariff, while the U.S. government insists that the automobile tariffs are related to national security [5][6]

日本首相石破茂：与美国的谈判似乎更多是关于投资而非关税。 ...

日本首相石破茂：与美国讨论的重点是投资，而不是关税。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

智通财经7月2日电，日本首相石破茂表示，与美国的谈判似乎更多是关于投资而非关税。 ...

当地时间7月1日，美国股市三大股指收盘表现出现分化，其中道琼斯工业指数盘中续创4个月新高。 与此同时，以特斯拉为代表的大型科技股多数走低，带动纳斯达克综合指数走低，当天特斯拉股价大幅下跌逾5%。 美股三大股指涨跌不一 道指盘中续创4个月新高 当地时间7月1日，美国股市三大股指收盘表现出现分化，其中道琼斯工业指数涨0.91%，报44494.94点，盘中一度续创最近4个月新高。 标准普尔500指数跌0.11%，报6198.01点，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.82%，报20202.89点。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，其中特斯拉跌逾5%，市值重新跌回1万亿美元以下。消息面上，因对"大而美"税收与支出法案等方面的意见分歧，特朗普与马斯克再次 爆发"口水仗"。据路透社报道，当地时间1日，特朗普称"政府效率部门"（DOGE）应审查马斯克旗下公司获得的补贴，以帮助联邦政府节省"巨额"资金。此前一 天，马斯克再次批评特朗普力推的"大而美"法案，并誓言要在支持该法案的美国议员连任时将他们赶下台。 其他大型科技股方面，英伟达跌近3%，Meta跌超2%，微软跌逾1%，谷歌微跌0.22%，亚马逊涨0.49%，苹果涨逾1%。 银行股多数上涨，花 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in July has become a focal point for the market, with Chairman Powell indicating that decisions will be data-driven and not ruled out for any meeting [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Powell's comments suggest a shift from previous indications of considering rate cuts in the fall, with a current probability of a 25 basis point cut in July rising to about 25% from under 20% a week prior [1] - Market expectations indicate that investors believe the Fed will initiate a rate cut cycle by the end of September, with a total of two cuts amounting to 50 basis points by year-end [1][4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-over-year, above the previous value and market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - Real consumer spending showed a decline of 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first decrease since December 2024, reflecting weakening consumer momentum [4] - Personal income fell by 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month decline since March 2023, indicating increased pressure on income [4] Group 3: Global Economic Uncertainty - Central bank leaders, including Powell, expressed concerns over unprecedented global policy uncertainty, with inflation risks being driven by both downward pressures from commodity prices and upward pressures from geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties [3] - The discussion highlighted a cautious outlook on short-term inflation paths among major central bank officials, with differing views on the pace and priority of policy adjustments [3] Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - There is a growing divergence within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials suggesting earlier action if inflation remains controlled, while others express caution due to economic slowdown concerns [5][4] - The June FOMC dot plot revealed that among 19 members, opinions varied significantly on the likelihood of rate cuts in 2025, with some expecting no cuts and others anticipating multiple cuts [4]

美国财长贝森特：关税未推动美联储降息"有点令人困惑"。 ...

美国总统特朗普：日本可能面临30%或35%的关税。 ...