其 他 报 告 2025年07月10日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3493 | -0.13 | 1.40 | | 深证成份指数 | 10582 | -0.06 | 1.25 | | 沪深300指数 | 3991 | -0.18 | 1.54 | | 创业板指数 | 2185 | 0.16 | 1.50 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | 0.00 | 0.16 | | 上证基金指数 | 6945 | -0.04 | 0.16 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23892 | -1.06 | -1.52 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8597 | -1.28 | -1.75 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22527 | 0.74 | -0.14 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44241 | ...

证券研究报告 月酝知风之银行业 ——股息仍具吸引力，关注长期资金入市 银行行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 袁喆奇 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520080003 许淼 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525020001 研究助理 李灵琇 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070021 2025年7月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 2 行业核心观点：资金结构深刻变化，顺势而为重配置轻交易。资金流向的变化是推动板块估值修复中不可忽视的力量，一方面被动指数的持续扩容带来了稳定的资金流入，板块 高权重的特征仍将持续推动资金的流入，一方面银行板块低波高红利的特征更易获得险资等中长期资金的青睐，目前板块平均股息率达到3.86%，结合监管一系列引导中长期资金 入市的措施，预计板块的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。个股维度，我们结合股息和潜在增量中长期资金流入空间看好A股股份行板块以及部分优质区域行（成都、北京、江苏、 上海、苏州、长沙），同时关注更具股息优势的港股大行配置机会。 行业热点跟踪：中长期资金趋势性流入，高股息价值投资持续。险资持续增配银行板块。24年以来险资增配速度略有提升，新会计准则运用之后保险资金为了 ...

"资本市场在经济全局中的战略地位明显提升。"中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊认为，股 市是经济的"晴雨表"，市场稳定对于改善市场预期、提振投资者信心以及促进消费和投资至关重要，尤 其是在经济结构转型的关键时期，资本市场有助于引导资金向科技创新、新质生产力领域聚集，推动产 业结构升级。 4月以来，美国所谓的"对等关税"冲击全球金融市场，A股市场亦受到影响。为维护市场稳定，我国多 部门、各类市场主体纷纷出手，中央汇金公司积极发挥类"平准基金"作用，全国社保基金理事会、国有 资本运营公司、央国企集团、保险机构、上市公司"真金白银"实施增持回购，打出了一系列稳市"组合 拳"，A股市场表现出较强的稳定性，彰显出我国政策工具储备充足、资本市场稳市机制持续优化、经 济基本面稳中向好的信心与底气。 博时基金首席权益策略分析师陈显顺认为，当前海外市场局势仍不明朗，关税冲击还有可能带来全球金 融市场动荡，持续稳定国内资本市场仍有必要。中央政治局会议进一步稳定了市场预期，提振了投资者 信心，维稳力量将持续发挥作用。 专家指出，"活跃资本市场"，意味着资本市场要在稳定的基础上更趋活跃，这与"稳中求进"的工作总基 调一脉相承， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of a comprehensive financial policy package by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize the market and expectations [1] - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, aimed at enhancing liquidity and credit supply in specific sectors [1][2] - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% is expected to lower their funding costs and improve credit supply capabilities [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to lower policy interest rates, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The central bank's support for capital markets includes optimizing two monetary policy tools with a total quota of 800 billion yuan, allowing for more flexible use of funds [3] - The Central Huijin Investment Company is emphasized as a key player in maintaining capital market stability, with the central bank providing sufficient support for its operations [3] Group 3 - The expansion of pilot programs for insurance funds to invest long-term is set to inject an additional 60 billion yuan into the market, alongside adjustments to solvency regulations to encourage more stock investments [4] - The focus on increasing the scale and proportion of long-term funds entering the market is highlighted, with initiatives to promote high-quality development of public funds [4] - The roadmap for capital market reforms includes measures to enhance the stability and adaptability of the market, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and improving the investment environment for foreign entities [5]

商业银行理财公司在资本市场中扮演着不可或缺的角色。近日，多家银行理财宣布通过直接投资或以间 接方式持续增持权益类资产，并明确将进一步加大权益类资产配置比例，释放长期投资动能。据悉，截 至2025年一季度末，银行理财存续规模29.14万亿元，同比增加9.41%。 在与会的银行理财公司看来，当前境内ETF市场正以蓬勃之势迈向高质量发展新阶段，指数化投资凭借 其分散风险、透明度高、交易便捷等显著优势，已成为市场发展的重要趋势与方向。 证券时报记者 张淑贤 银行理财公司纷纷表示，未来将进一步践行"价值投资、理性投资、长期投资"理念，积极响应"长钱长 投"政策号召，充分发挥专业投资机构的资源优势与引领作用，加强协同合作，共同为资本市场的健 康、稳定、可持续发展注入强劲动力。 上交所近日举办商业银行理财公司权益类资金入市专题培训。该培训以六部委联合印发的《关于推动中 长期资金入市工作的实施方案》为政策指引，积极响应稳定市场运行、提振市场信心政策导向，充分释 放ETF在引入中长期资金方面的效能，持续壮大"长钱长投"规模。 下一步，上交所将持续做深做实做细投资端综合服务，凝聚市场合力，创新央企投融资综合服务机制， 更大力度" ...

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance launched a private equity fund with a target size of 20 billion yuan, emphasizing long-term investment strategies [1][2] - China Chengtong's investment in three ETFs signals confidence in the long-term value of state-owned enterprises [1][2] - The approval of the first batch of new floating fee rate funds indicates a shift towards performance-based fee structures [3][4] Group 1: Long-term Capital Inflow - There is an increasing trend of long-term capital inflow into the capital market, with social security funds, enterprise annuities, and insurance funds showing significant investment activity [1][2] - The total net purchase of A-shares by long-term funds has exceeded 200 billion yuan this year, indicating a positive cycle of capital inflow and market stability [2][5] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a floating management fee mechanism linked to fund performance, encouraging long-term investment behavior [3][4] - Recent regulatory changes allow private equity funds to shorten lock-up periods for shares, enhancing liquidity and investment efficiency [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of policies aimed at promoting long-term capital participation is expected to optimize the investment environment for insurance and pension funds [5] - There is potential for further increases in the equity investment ratio of insurance funds, as regulatory limits remain significantly below current levels [5]

第三个时间点是12月，这个月市场走势通常是先涨后跌，中旬是关键分水岭。因为到了年底，公募和私 募机构都忙着排名，上旬就开始陆续出货以锁定排名。所以，若12月上旬市场上涨，及时减仓准没错， 否则很可能坐过山车，导致利润回吐。 第四个时间点是监管出手之时，其对市场影响巨大。一旦监管提出要打造慢牛行情、打击题材炒作、给 市场降温，游资就会迅速撤离。若投资者此时反应迟缓，大概率会亏损。 最后一个，也是最重要的时间点，是提及引导中长期资金入市之时。仔细观察会发现，每次这一说法出 现，A股就会下跌。要是投资者信以为真，那就可能成为入市接盘的中长期资金。仔细想想，如果短期 就能引入资金入市，又何必提及中长期呢？所以，别轻易在这个时候入场。 （原标题：和讯投顾郑邯：每年有5个关键时间点，最后一个最为坑人） 7月1日，和讯投顾郑邯表示，每年有5个时间点，股民账户资金变动较大，即便牛市也难幸免，尤其最 后一个时间点最为坑人。 第一个时间点是每年4月中下旬，跌停潮几乎成惯例，是股民的噩梦时段。此时是年报集中披露期，一 些上市公司之前描绘的美好蓝图和讲述的故事纷纷被戳穿。虽然从指数看，下跌幅度或许不算特别夸 张，但股民账户的盈亏情况 ...

英大证券认为，中期市场向好趋势相对明显，A股有望延续震荡上行趋势。随着金融支持高质量发展政 策落地，叠加美联储下半年降息预期与国内货币宽松空间打开，市场流动性有望形成共振，进一步提振 市场预期。另外，险资入市放宽、中长期资金引入等政策，促进权益市场流动性明显改善。 中原证券认为，周二早盘股指高开后震荡上扬，盘中沪指在3454点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指维持震荡， 尾盘再度上扬，盘中银行、电力、化学制药以及玻璃纤维等行业表现较好；软件开发、互联网服务、电 池以及汽车零部件等行业表现较弱。长期资金入市步伐加快，ETF规模稳步增长，保险资金持续流入， 形成显著的托底力量。美联储6月议息会议维持利率不变，但降息路径仍存不确定性，若释放明确降息 信号将显著提振全球风险偏好。预计短期A股市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金面 以及外盘的变化情况。 财信证券认为，周二A股市场风格分化明显，红利方向走强。尽管前期强势的固态电池、稳定币和军工 方向迎来不同程度调整，市场情绪有所降温，但在银行板块支撑指数的背景下，半导体、创新药方向走 强使得市场整体维持活跃。短期内，指数层面或继续震荡，仍可挖掘题材方面的结构性行情，随着 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies and regulations aim to enhance the legal framework and regulatory environment of China's capital market, focusing on risk prevention, strong supervision, and promoting high-quality development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Framework - The 20th National Congress emphasized the need for a coordinated investment and financing capital market, highlighting the importance of risk prevention and regulatory strength [1]. - The new "National Nine Articles" require a focus on strong regulation and risk prevention to promote high-quality development in the capital market [1][2]. - Recent measures have been introduced to support the long-term development of technology companies, with over 90% of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market being tech firms [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Investor Confidence - The introduction of guidelines to encourage long-term capital investment aims to create a stable market environment, addressing the historical volatility of the capital market [3]. - The implementation of policies such as the "Guidance on Promoting Long-term Capital Investment" and the "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Index Investment" is designed to enhance market stability [3]. - Regulatory measures are being strengthened to support investor returns through dividends and share buybacks, fostering confidence among retail investors [3]. Group 3: Corporate Governance and Compliance - The new regulations focus on improving the share reduction rules for major shareholders to enhance corporate governance and protect investor interests [4]. - Stricter entry requirements for public offerings and enhanced responsibilities for intermediaries are being enforced to ensure market integrity [4]. - The introduction of a comprehensive system for monitoring and penalizing misconduct, including insider trading and market manipulation, is crucial for maintaining market fairness [5]. Group 4: Legal Enforcement and Investor Protection - The new "National Nine Articles" propose a multi-faceted approach to increase accountability for securities violations, including administrative, civil, and criminal penalties [5]. - Collaborative efforts between judicial and regulatory bodies aim to improve the efficiency of legal processes related to securities violations [5][9]. - Innovative dispute resolution mechanisms, such as judicial mediation and arbitration, are being promoted to enhance investor protection and resolve conflicts effectively [9]. Group 5: Future Directions and Challenges - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period will focus on addressing persistent issues in the capital market, such as shareholder misconduct and regulatory enforcement [7]. - There is a need for continuous improvement of laws and regulations, particularly in the areas of derivative trading and cross-market supervision [8]. - The promotion of a culture of compliance and investor education is essential to mitigate risks associated with market manipulation and fraud [8].

中证协近日召开2025年第二季度证券基金行业首席经济学家例会，包括7位首席经济学家及有关监管部 门人员参会。与会嘉宾提到两项建议：一是全球产业链供应链已呈现"近岸化""本土化""分散化"的特 征，未来中国将与欧美形成高端核心产业链平行体系和低附加值基础产业链交叉体系，建议强化政策协 同，引导更多中长期资金流入供应链产业链相关领域，稳定市场预期、强化市场信心，助力企业发展； 二是应进一步加强国家补贴政策力度，激活消费场景，推动实际 利率下降。（记者 林坚） ...