1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation [2] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to experience intensified range-bound fluctuations, with a focus on capital movements and attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will halt production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others plan to stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, affected by domestic lithium mine production dynamics, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 108,600 yuan/ton, up 7.97%. Trading volume increased by 93.9% to 1.1586 million lots, with a slight 0.4% increase in positions. The net short position of the main contract continued. The spot price was 97,050 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 11,570 yuan/ton, indicating a significant premium of futures over spot [1] - The overall trading activity does not match the price increase, mainly supported by the rigid demand of a small number of enterprises [1] - On the supply side, raw material prices rose slightly, with a significant YoY increase, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate was 51.29%, a 0.27% MoM increase, and output was 21,998 tons, a 0.33% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the main growth driver [2] - On the demand side, the production of cathode materials slightly declined, and inventory continued to be depleted. The processing fee of some lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly increased in 2026 [2] - In the terminal market, in November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased by 17% and 32.7% YoY respectively. As of December 7, new - energy vehicle sales increased significantly YoY, and the penetration rate increased MoM [2] - As of December 11, the weekly inventory continued to be depleted, and the overall inventory remained tight, supporting prices [2] - Macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's potential interest rate cut, Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference have positive impacts on the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [3] - Due to factors like the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/复产 news, and domestic lithium mine production dynamics, capital speculation has intensified. Considering future capacity release and the net short position of the main contract, short - term price fluctuations may widen [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a sideways and consolidating manner, with its focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner, with the market focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production affected. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2][3] - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2][3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract LC2605 closed at 100,600 CNY/ton, with a 1.4% decrease in trading volume, increased open interest, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The basis of the main contract narrowed to - 4,750 CNY/ton, with increased upstream selling willingness and decreased downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2] - Supply - side raw material prices rose slightly year - on - year, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.29%, a 0.27% increase, and the output was 21,998 tons, a 0.33% increase. The lithium spodumene process was the core growth driver, with new projects being launched. The potential cancellation of Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining right strengthened short - term bullish sentiment, and the commissioning of Xikeng and Inner Mongolia Veraste projects clarified long - term production capacity release [3] - On the demand side, the output of cathode materials decreased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers will raise processing fees in 2026. In the terminal market, the output of new energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased by 17% and 32.7% year - on - year in November, and new energy vehicle sales increased significantly year - on - year as of December 7, with short - term adjustments but long - term resilience [3] - As of December 11, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample continued to decline, with the overall inventory remaining tight, which supported price [3] - Macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference provided long - term support for lithium carbonate's supply - demand pattern. Market sentiment was affected by supply - demand balance and various production - capacity news, leading to intensified long - short games. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to long - term production capacity release and the net - short position of the main force [4]

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：市场情绪高涨 聚焦资金博弈与供需边际 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 16 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约 LC2605 较上一交易日上涨 3.42%至 10.16 万元/吨，成交和持仓量持续放量，主力净空格局延续，资金博弈加剧价格 波动，盘面价格中心持续上移。截至收盘，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 95，150 元/吨，主力合约基差扩大至-6，450 元/吨，期现背离加剧。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡托底，维持区间震荡 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 基本面来看，供应端原料价格微涨，产能逐步释放。SMM 数据显示，上 周锂辉石、锂云母均价环比微涨 1%，原料端成本支撑持续增强；碳酸锂总 周度 ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Production Capacity - The production capacity of the Vietnam factory has been fully released, reaching 11 million units per year [1] - The Vietnam factory is a core component of the company's smart terminal business, effectively reducing operational risks from trade fluctuations and meeting overseas market demands [1] - Future plans include further optimization and intelligent transformation of production lines to support scalable growth and profit improvement in the smart terminal business [1] Group 2: Synergy between Optical Communication and LED Industry - Significant synergy exists between the optical communication business and the LED industry, including capacity reuse and reduced investment costs [3] - The existing 20-chamber MOCVD equipment can cover production needs for Mini display chips, infrared chips, and optical chips, with core capital expenditures already completed [3] - The company has achieved efficient process migration and verification, establishing a preliminary vertical integration layout from optical chips to optical modules [3] Group 3: Market Penetration Strategy for Optical Module Business - The company leverages deep cooperation with existing customers and upstream optical chip industry links to expand its optical module business [4] - Current major customers include domestic equipment manufacturers and operators, with gradual improvement in business performance expected as production line relocations and upgrades are completed [4] - The optical module business is anticipated to benefit from industry growth, with significant overall growth potential as production capacity is released [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2026 [9][38]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery in the Chinese consumer market, while the U.S. and European markets show steady growth. The overall industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for upstream order growth driven by stable downstream replenishment [31][32]. - The report highlights the strong performance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, where DTC revenue growth is driven by e-commerce [18][23]. - Key investment themes include a focus on high-quality stocks in apparel manufacturing, brand apparel with stable growth or reversal logic, and strong alpha candidates in the gold and jewelry sector [21][22][33]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - PVH Group reported a 2% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2025Q3, reaching $2.294 billion, with a notable decline in gross margin due to increased tariffs and a challenging promotional environment [1][14]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific: FY2025Q3 revenue decreased by 1% year-over-year, but DTC business showed low single-digit growth, particularly in China [18][23]. - EMEA: Revenue grew by 4% year-over-year, but DTC and wholesale businesses faced declines due to a weak consumer environment [23]. - Americas: Revenue increased by 2%, driven by adjustments in the women's product line, although direct sales faced challenges [23]. Investment Themes - **Apparel Manufacturing**: Recommendations include Shenzhou International (PE of 12x) and Huali Group (PE of 18x), with expectations for improved core customer orders in 2026 [21][31]. - **Brand Apparel**: Focus on companies like Tmall and Anta Sports, with PE ratios of 15x and 16x respectively, and a recommendation for Bosideng (PE of 14x) [21][32]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and brand strength, with PE ratios of 17x and 21x respectively [22][33]. Recent Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in the apparel manufacturing sector, with expectations for revenue growth exceeding 10% CAGR from 2025 to 2026 for Shenzhou International [34][38].

Group 1: Company Overview - Zhejiang Xinkai Technology Group Co., Ltd. raised CNY 165 million for R&D center and headquarters construction, and CNY 79.23 million for repaying bank loans, with projects progressing as planned [1] - The R&D center and headquarters are expected to be operational by Q3 2026 [1] Group 2: Production and Manufacturing - The company has two production bases; Liaoning Xinkai Industrial Co., Ltd. began trial production in 2024, gradually increasing capacity [1] - The products from self-built bases are focused on high value-added and high-performance products, which are expected to positively impact overall gross margin [1] Group 3: Sales and Pricing Strategy - The company employs a customized pricing strategy based on diverse downstream customer needs, with periodic or ad-hoc price negotiations [1] - Strong price transmission capability allows the company to adjust prices in response to significant cost fluctuations [1] Group 4: Gross Margin Comparison - The company's gross margin is relatively stable, differing from peers due to distinct business models and pricing strategies [2] - The company’s model involves customized procurement and sales, leading to stable gross margins compared to competitors affected by raw material prices and production capacity [2] Group 5: Future Development and Strategy - Future focus will be on organic pigment product development, driven by market demand and technological innovation [2] - The company aims to enhance R&D capabilities and smart factory construction to improve production efficiency and adaptability to market changes [2] Group 6: Export and International Market Impact - The company’s products play a significant role in the global supply chain, with a large portion being irreplaceable [2] - Price adjustment mechanisms allow the company to pass on most additional costs to downstream customers, minimizing operational impact from international trade barriers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is in the final stages of rectifying and completing its 46,000-ton electronic new energy adhesive project, expecting to receive government approval this quarter, which will alleviate past capacity constraints and enhance sales revenue potential [1] Group 1 - The company is addressing expert pre-acceptance feedback for its production project [1] - The project is anticipated to officially obtain government approval within the current quarter [1] - The company is actively preparing the market for capacity release to quickly convert production into sales revenue post-launch [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a rapid growth in new orders due to the recovery of downstream demand and the need for inventory replenishment in channels [2] Group 1 - The company currently has sufficient orders on hand, indicating strong demand [2] - The new project, "Numerical Control Tool Industry Park Project," is in its first year of production, with capacity utilization gradually increasing [2] - The company's production capacity is expected to accelerate by the end of this year, opening up new avenues for rapid growth [2]